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2018 California gubernatorial election


The 2018 California gubernatorial election was held on November 6, 2018, to elect the governor of California, concurrently with elections for the rest of California's executive branch, as well as elections to the United States Senate and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic Governor Jerry Brown was ineligible to run for a third consecutive term due to term limits. The race was between the incumbent Democratic Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom and businessman John H. Cox, a Republican, who qualified for the general election after placing first and second in the June 5, 2018 primary election.

Newsom won in a landslide, with 62% of the vote, the biggest victory in a gubernatorial race in California since Earl Warren won re-election in 1950, and the biggest victory for a non-incumbent since 1930. The election also marked the first time in 40 years since Orange County had voted for the Democratic candidate since Jerry Brown won it in 1978, and the first time Democrats won three consecutive gubernatorial elections in the state's history. Newsom was sworn in on January 7, 2019.

A primary election was held on June 5, 2018. Under California's non-partisan blanket primary law, all candidates appeared on the same ballot, regardless of party. Voters may vote for any candidate, regardless of their party affiliation. The top two finishers – regardless of party – advance to the general election in November, regardless of whether a candidate manages to receive a majority of the votes cast in the primary election.

  • Akinyemi Agbede, mathematician

  • Juan M. Bribiesca, retired physician

  • Thomas Jefferson Cares, blockchain start-up CEO

  • John Chiang, California State Treasurer

  • Delaine Eastin, former California State Superintendent of Public Instruction

  • Robert Davidson Griffis, 2016 Libertarian candidate for president

  • Albert Caesar Mezzetti, former Manteca city councilman

  • Gavin Newsom, lieutenant governor of California

  • Amanda Renteria, national political director for Hillary Clinton's 2016 presidential campaign and candidate for CA-21 in 2014

  • Michael Shellenberger, founder of the Breakthrough Institute

  • Klement Tinaj, actor, martial artist, stuntman, and producer

  • Antonio Villaraigosa, former mayor of Los Angeles

  • Xavier Becerra, Attorney General of California (ran for re-election)

  • Scooter Braun, music manager

  • George Clooney, actor and activist

  • Kevin de León, president pro tempore of the California State Senate (ran for the U.S. Senate)

  • Eric Garcetti, mayor of Los Angeles

  • Bob Iger, CEO of The Walt Disney Company

  • Sheryl Sandberg, Facebook COO

  • Libby Schaaf, mayor of Oakland (ran for re-election)

  • Jackie Speier, U.S. representative (ran for re-election)

  • Tom Steyer, hedge fund manager, philanthropist, and environmentalist

  • Travis Allen, state assemblyman

  • John H. Cox, businessman

  • Yvonne Girard, US military veteran

  • Peter Y. Liu, entrepreneur, real estate agent, US Army veteran

  • Robert C. Newman II, businessman, psychologist, farmer

  • K. Pearce (write-in)

  • Rosey Grier, minister and retired NFL player

  • David Hadley, former state assemblyman

  • Allen Ishida, former Tulare County Supervisor

  • Doug Ose, former U.S. representative

  • Tim Donnelly, former state assemblyman, candidate for governor in 2014, and candidate for CA-08 in 2016 (running for CA-08)

  • Kevin Faulconer, mayor of San Diego

  • Ashley Swearengin, former mayor of Fresno

  • Peter Thiel, venture capitalist

  • Zoltan Istvan, Transhumanist Party nominee for President of the United States in 2016

  • Nickolas Wildstar, political activist, rapper, and write-in candidate for governor in 2014

  • Christopher Carlson, puppeteer

  • Veronika Fimbres (write-in)

  • Josh Jones, author, geologist, solar electric designer

  • Gloria La Riva, activist and nominee for president of the United States in 2016

  • Armando M. Arreola (write-in)

  • Shubham Goel (later a contestant on Netflix's The Circle)

  • Hakan "Hawk" Mikado

  • Desmond Silveira, engineer and former national committee member of the American Solidarity Party

  • Arman Soltani (write-in)

  • Jeffrey Edward Taylor

  • Peter Crawford Valentino (write-in)

  • Johnny Wattenburg

From the latter half of 2017, Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom was widely seen as the favored front runner for the top two primary. Businessman John Cox and Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa had both been running closely behind Newsom to obtain the second place spot. However, in late 2017, as more prominent Democrats entered the race, Villaraigosa saw his polling numbers slip out of competition with Cox. This mainly left the race between Newsom and Cox, with a third place free-for-all between Allen and Villaraigosa.

Graphical summary

PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic2,343,79233.7%
Republican1,766,48825.4%
Democratic926,39413.3%
Republican658,7989.5%
Democratic655,9209.4%
Democratic234,8693.4%
Democratic93,4461.3%
Republican44,6740.6%
Democratic31,6920.5%
Republican27,3360.4%
Republican21,8400.3%
Peace and Freedom19,0750.3%
Democratic18,5860.3%
Green16,1310.2%
Libertarian14,4620.2%
Democratic12,0260.2%
Libertarian11,5660.2%
Democratic11,1030.2%
Democratic9,3800.1%
Democratic8,9370.1%
Green7,3020.1%
Democratic5,3680.1%
No party preference5,3460.1%
No party preference4,9730.1%
No party preference4,6330.1%
No party preference4,0200.1%
No party preference3,9730.1%
Green620.0%
No party preference320.0%
No party preference210.0%
Republican80.0%
No party preference10.0%
6,862,254100%

Red represents counties won by Cox. Blue represents counties won by Newsom. Green represents counties won by Villaraigosa.

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political ReportSafe DOctober 26, 2018
The Washington PostLikely DNovember 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEightSafe DNovember 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political ReportSafe DNovember 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal BallSafe DNovember 5, 2018
RealClearPoliticsLikely DNovember 4, 2018
Daily KosSafe DNovember 5, 2018
Fox NewsLikely DNovember 5, 2018
PoliticoSafe DNovember 5, 2018
GoverningSafe DNovember 5, 2018
Poll sourceDate(s)administeredSamplesizeMarginof errorGavinNewsom (D)JohnCox (R)NoneOtherUndecided
Change ResearchNovember 2–4, 20181,10853%41%
Research Co.November 1–3, 2018450± 4.6%58%38%4%
SurveyUSANovember 1–2, 2018924± 4.6%53%38%9%
Probolsky ResearchOctober 25–30, 2018900± 3.3%47%37%16%
Thomas Partners StrategiesOctober 25–27, 20181,068± 3.5%55%42%3%
Gravis MarketingOctober 25–26, 2018743± 3.6%55%35%9%
UC BerkeleyOctober 19–25, 20181,339± 4.0%58%40%2%
YouGovOctober 10–24, 20182,178± 3.1%53%34%3%10%
Public Policy Institute of CaliforniaOctober 12–21, 2018989± 4.2%49%38%2%10%
Thomas Partners StrategiesOctober 18–20, 20181,068± 3.5%54%41%5%
Emerson CollegeOctober 17–19, 2018671± 4.1%52%32%16%
SurveyUSAOctober 12–14, 2018762± 4.9%52%35%14%
Thomas Partners StrategiesOctober 12–14, 20181,068± 3.5%51%43%6%
USC Dornsife/Los Angeles TimesSeptember 17 – October 14, 2018794 LV± 4.0%54%31%15%
980 RV± 4.0%51%30%19%
Thomas Partners StrategiesOctober 5–7, 20181,068± 3.5%54%42%4%
Thomas Partners StrategiesSeptember 28–30, 20181,068± 3.5%50%45%5%
Thomas Partners StrategiesSeptember 21–23, 20181,068± 3.5%53%42%5%
Vox Populi PollingSeptember 16–18, 2018500± 4.4%60%40%
Public Policy Institute of CaliforniaSeptember 9–18, 2018964± 4.8%51%39%3%7%
Thomas Partners StrategiesSeptember 14–16, 20181,040± 3.5%45%41%14%
IpsosSeptember 5–14, 20181,021± 4.0%52%40%3%6%
Thomas Partners StrategiesSeptember 7–9, 20181,227± 3.3%48%40%12%
Probolsky ResearchAugust 29 – September 2, 2018900± 5.8%44%39%17%
Public Policy Institute of CaliforniaJuly 8–17, 20181,020± 4.3%55%31%5%9%
SurveyUSAJune 26–27, 2018559± 5.9%58%29%13%
USC Dornsife/Los Angeles TimesJune 6–17, 2018767± 4.0%45%28%27%
J. Wallin Opinion Research/Tulchin ResearchMarch 30 – April 4, 2018800± 3.7%42%32%26%

Newsom won the general election by the largest margin of any California gubernatorial candidate since Earl Warren's re-election in 1950. In addition to winning the traditional Democratic strongholds of the San Francisco Bay Area, Los Angeles County, Sacramento, and North Coast, Newsom performed well in the traditionally swing Central Coast, San Bernardino County, and San Diego County, as well as narrowly winning traditionally Republican Orange County – the latter voting for a Democrat for the first time in a gubernatorial election since Jerry Brown's first re-election in 1978. Cox did well in the state's more rural areas, even flipping Stanislaus County; Stanislaus is the only county that voted for Brown in 2014 but flipped to Cox in 2018. Cox also narrowly won Fresno County and Riverside County in the Inland Empire in addition to handily winning traditionally Republican Kern County in the Central Valley.

PartyCandidateVotes%.mw-parser-output .tooltip-dotted{border-bottom:1px dotted;cursor:help}±%
Democratic7,721,41061.95%+1.98%
Republican4,742,82538.05%−1.98%
12,464,235100.00%N/A

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

  • Orange (largest municipality: Anaheim)
  • San Bernardino (largest municipality: San Bernardino)

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

  • Stanislaus (largest municipality: Modesto)

Newsom won 42 of 53 congressional districts, with the remaining 11 going to Cox, including four that elected Democrats.

Cities & Unincorporated Areas that flipped from Republican to Democratic

  • El Segundo (Los Angeles)
  • Hidden Hills (Los Angeles)
  • Industry (Los Angeles)
  • La Canada Flintridge (Los Angeles)
  • La Mirada (Los Angeles)
  • Lancaster (Los Angeles)
  • Rancho Palos Verdes (Los Angeles)
  • Torrance (Los Angeles)
  • Westlake Village (Los Angeles)
  • Aliso Viejo (Orange)
  • Anaheim (Orange)
  • Costa Mesa (Orange)
  • Fullerton (Orange)
  • La Habra (Orange)
  • La Palma (Orange)
  • Tustin (Orange)
  • Eastvale (Riverside)
  • Jurupa Valley (Riverside)
  • San Jacinto (Riverside)
  • Chino (San Bernardino)
  • Highland (San Bernardino)
  • Loma Linda (San Bernardino)
  • Victorville (San Bernardino)
  • Carlsbad (San Diego)
  • Escondido (San Diego)
  • Oceanside (San Diego)
  • San Marcos (San Diego)
  • Vista (San Diego)
  • Atherton (San Mateo)
  • Moorpark (Ventura)
  • Thousand Oaks (Ventura)
  • Unincorporated Area of Yolo

Cities & Unincorporated Areas that flipped from Democratic to Republican

  • Placerville (El Dorado)

  • Shafter (Kern)

  • Gustine (Merced)

  • Unincorporated Area of Nevada

  • Westminster (Orange)

  • Auburn (Placer)

  • Blythe (Riverside)

  • Citrus Heights (Sacramento)

  • Folsom (Sacramento)

  • Unincorporated Area of San Benito

  • Arroyo Grande (San Luis Obispo)

  • Pismo Beach (San Luis Obispo)

  • Unincorporated Area of San Luis Obispo

  • Lompoc (Santa Barbara)

  • Dixon (Solano)

  • Vacaville (Solano)

  • Turlock (Stanislaus)

  • Sonora (Tuolumne)

  • 2018 California lieutenant gubernatorial election

  • 2018 California State Treasurer election

  • 2021 California gubernatorial recall election

  • Candidates at Vote Smart

  • Candidates at Ballotpedia

Official campaign websites

  • John H. Cox (R) for Governor
  • Gavin Newsom (D) for Governor
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