United States midterm election

Background

While Article II, Section 1, Clause 1 of the United States Constitution sets the U.S. president's term of office to four years, Article I, Section 2, Clause 1 sets a two-year term for congressmembers elected to the U.S. House of Representatives. Article I, Section 3, Clause 1 then sets a six-year term for those elected to the U.S. Senate, with Clause 2 dividing the chamber into three "classes", so that approximately one-third of those seats are up for election every two years.

The elections for many state and local government offices are held during the midterms so they are not overshadowed or influenced by the presidential election. Still, a number of state and local governments instead prefer to avoid presidential and midterm years altogether and schedule their local races during odd-numbered "off-years".

Historical record of midterm

Midterm elections are regarded as a referendum on the sitting president's and/or incumbent party's performance.

The party of the incumbent president tends to lose ground during midterm elections: since World War II, the president's party has lost an average of 26 seats in the House, and an average of four seats in the Senate.

Since direct public midterm elections were introduced, in only eight of those (under presidents Woodrow Wilson, Franklin D. Roosevelt, John F. Kennedy, Richard Nixon, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, Donald Trump, and Joe Biden) has the president's party gained seats in the House or the Senate. Of those, only two (1934, Franklin D. Roosevelt, and 2002, George W. Bush) have seen the president's party gain seats in both houses.

The losses suffered during a president's second midterm tend to be more pronounced than during their first midterm, in what is described as a "six-year itch".

Comparison with other U.S. general elections

Notes

References

References

1. (2007). "Encyclopedia of the United States Congress". Infobase Publishing.
2. "Demand for Democracy". The Pew Center on the States.
3. Desilver, D. (2014) [http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/07/24/voter-turnout-always-drops-off-for-midterm-elections-but-why/ Voter turnout always drops off for midterm elections, but why?] Pew Research Center, July 24, 2014.
4. (1999). "Horses in Midstream". University of Pittsburgh Press.
5. (November 5, 2018). "Why Do Midterm Elections Even Exist? Here's Why the Framers Scheduled Things This Way".
6. (November 4, 2019). "Why These 5 States Hold Odd-Year Elections, Bucking The Trend". NPR.
7. (2006-11-08). "A Voter Rebuke For Bush, the War And the Right". [[Washington Post]].
8. (1998-11-04). "Election '98 Lewinsky factor never materialized". [[CNN]].
9. Crockett, David. (2002). "The Opposition Presidency: Leadership and the Constraints of History". Texas A&M University Press.
10. "Explaining Midterm Election Outcomes: A New Theory and an Overview of Existing Explanations".