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2024 United States Senate election in Texas


The 2024 United States Senate election in Texas was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Texas. Republican senator Ted Cruz was re-elected to a third term, defeating Democratic U.S. representative Colin Allred. The primary election took place on March 5, 2024, during Super Tuesday.

Early polling showed Cruz as a clear favorite, but polls closer to the election showed a closer race. Cruz ultimately outperformed polling and expectations and won re-election by 8.49%, improving on his 2018 margin by six points and flipping thirteen counties.

Texas is generally considered to be a Republican stronghold, having not elected a Democrat to any statewide office since 1994. Republicans control both U.S. Senate seats, all statewide offices, both houses of the Texas Legislature, and a large majority in Texas's U.S. House congressional delegation. Cruz was first elected in 2012, defeating Paul Sadler by 16 points and was reelected in 2018 by less than 3 points, narrowly defeating Beto O'Rourke. The close elections in 2018 prompted many electoral analysts to speculate that Texas could become a swing state, but in the 2020 and 2022 elections, Republicans increased their margins of victory. This race was considered to generally favor Cruz, but some considered the race to have the potential to become competitive.

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024
Ted Cruz (R)$59,159,421$46,606,430$12,710,949
Poll sourceDate(s)administeredSamplesizeMarginof errorTedCruzHollandGibsonRufusLopezOtherUndecided
YouGovFebruary 2–12, 2024492 (RV)± 4.4%82%7%3%9%

Results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{}  Cruz   70–80%  80–90%  >90%

PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican1,977,96188.30%
Republican134,0115.98%
Republican127,9865.71%
2,239,958100.00%
  • Colin Allred, U.S. representative from Texas's 32nd congressional district (2019–2025)

  • Meri Gomez, tax consultant

  • Mark Gonzalez, former Nueces County district attorney (2017–2023)

  • Roland Gutierrez, state senator from the 19th district (2021–present)

  • Robert Hassan, businessman

  • Steven Keough, law professor

  • Heli Rodriguez-Prilliman, tech entrepreneur

  • Carl Sherman, state representative from the 109th district (2019–2025)

  • Thierry Tchenko, home repair nonprofit executive and former associate director of the District of Columbia Office of Policy

  • Aaron Arguijo, coffee shop owner

  • John Love III, former Midland city councilor and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2020 (ran for U.S. House)

  • Zachariah Manning, businessman (ran for U.S. House)

  • Julián Castro, former U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development (2014–2017), former mayor of San Antonio (2009–2014), and candidate for president of the United States in 2020

  • Veronica Escobar, U.S. representative for Texas's 16th congressional district (2019–present) (ran for re-election, endorsed Allred)

  • Scott Kelly, retired NASA astronaut and brother of Arizona Senator Mark Kelly

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024
Colin Allred (D)$38,433,747$27,983,265$10,450,482
Mark Gonzalez (D)$14,967$11,659$3,307
Roland Gutierrez (D)$1,301,543$1,146,487$155,055
Steven Keough (D)$27,357$27,730$0
Heli Rodriguez-Prilliman (D)$30,458$29,440$1,017
Carl Sherman (D)$173,565$150,616$22,949
Thierry Tchenko (D)$117,067$106,606$10,461

Results by county:   Allred   20–30%   30–40%   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   >90%   Gutierrez   20–30%   30–40%   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   Gonzalez   30–40%   40–50%   50–60%   >90%   Gomez   20–30%   Tied   No Votes

PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic569,58558.87%
Democratic160,97816.64%
Democratic85,2288.81%
Democratic44,1664.56%
Democratic31,6943.28%
Democratic21,8552.26%
Democratic21,8012.25%
Democratic18,8011.94%
Democratic13,3951.38%
967,503100.00%
  • Ted Brown, insurance adjuster and nominee for Texas's 17th congressional district in 2020

  • Tracy Andrus, director of the Lee P. Brown Criminal Justice Institute at Wiley University

  • Analisa Roche, math tutor

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political ReportLean ROctober 1, 2024
Inside ElectionsTilt ROctober 31, 2024
Fox NewsLikely ROctober 1, 2024
Sabato's Crystal BallLean RNovember 4, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The HillLean RAugust 26, 2024
Elections DailyLean RNovember 4, 2024
CNalysisTilt ROctober 23, 2024
RealClearPoliticsTossupOctober 30, 2024
Split TicketLean ROctober 23, 2024
538Likely ROctober 23, 2024
Campaign finance reports as of October 16, 2024
Ted Cruz (R)$86,316,192$76,908,816$9,565,334
Colin Allred (D)$80,059,292$77,557,763$2,501,528
No.DateHostModeratorsLinkRepublicanDemocratic
October 15, 2024WFAAYouTubePP

Aggregate polls

Source of pollaggregationDatesadministeredDatesupdatedTedCruz (R)ColinAllred (D)UndecidedMargin
FiveThirtyEightthrough November 4, 2024November 4, 202449.4%45.4%5.2%Cruz +4.0%
RCPOctober 22 - November 4, 2024November 4, 202449.2%44.8%6.0%Cruz +4.4%
270toWinOctober 18 - November 3, 2024November 3, 202449.0%45.2%5.8%Cruz +3.8%
TheHill/DDHQthrough November 4, 2024November 4, 202449.8%46.0%4.2%Cruz +3.8%
Average49.4%45.4%5.2%Cruz +4.0%
PartyCandidateVotes%.mw-parser-output .tooltip-dotted{border-bottom:1px dotted;cursor:help}±%
Republican5,990,74153.05%+2.18%
Democratic5,031,24944.56%−3.76%
Libertarian267,0392.36%+1.59%
Write-in2,8250.03%
11,291,854100.00%
  • Brewster (largest municipality: Alpine)
  • Culberson (largest municipality: Van Horn)
  • Frio (largest municipality: Pearsall)
  • Jefferson (largest municipality: Beaumont)
  • Jim Wells (largest municipality: Alice)
  • Kleberg (largest municipality: Kingsville)
  • La Salle (largest municipality: Cotulla)
  • Maverick (largest municipality: Eagle Pass)
  • Nueces (largest municipality: Corpus Christi)
  • Reeves (largest municipality: Pecos)
  • Starr (largest municipality: Rio Grande City)
  • Val Verde (largest municipality: Del Rio)
  • Zapata (largest municipality: Zapata)

Cruz won 25 of 38 congressional districts.

DistrictCruzAllredRepresentative
73%25%Nathaniel Moran
58%39%Dan Crenshaw
56%42%Keith Self
63%35%Pat Fallon
60%38%Lance Gooden
60%37%Jake Ellzey
35%62%Lizzie Fletcher
63%35%Morgan Luttrell
24%73%Al Green
59%38%Michael McCaul
70%28%August Pfluger
57%40%Kay Granger (118th Congress)
Craig Goldman (119th Congress)
71%27%Ronny Jackson
64%34%Randy Weber
54%44%Monica De La Cruz
38%58%Veronica Escobar
62%36%Pete Sessions
26%71%Erica Lee Carter (118th Congress)
Sylvester Turner (119th Congress)
73%25%Jodey Arrington
34%63%Joaquín Castro
59%39%Chip Roy
56%42%Troy Nehls
53%44%Tony Gonzales
54%43%Beth Van Duyne
64%33%Roger Williams
58%40%Michael Burgess (118th Congress)
Brandon Gill (119th Congress)
61%37%Michael Cloud
48%49%Henry Cuellar
33%64%Sylvia Garcia
23%75%Jasmine Crockett
58%39%John Carter
34%64%Colin Allred (118th Congress)
Julie Johnson (119th Congress)
28%69%Marc Veasey
46%52%Vicente Gonzalez
29%68%Greg Casar
65%33%Brian Babin
22%75%Lloyd Doggett
57%41%Wesley Hunt

Cruz won a majority of Hispanic and Latino voters, particularly those living on the border with Mexico who had traditionally supported Democratic candidates; the NBC News exit poll showed 52% of Latinos supported Cruz, a 17-point increase from 2018.

Allred overperformed Kamala Harris in the concurrent presidential election in Texas by 5.5 points, receiving nearly 200,000 votes more than Harris and performing better than she did in the largely Hispanic Rio Grande Valley. He carried the Rio Grande Valley counties of Cameron, Duval, Hidalgo, Webb (Laredo), and Willacy, as well as Williamson and Tarrant counties that Trump simultaneously carried.

  • 2024 Texas elections

Partisan clients

Official campaign websites

  • Colin Allred (D) for Senate
  • Tracy Andrus (WI) for Senate
  • Ted Brown (L) for Senate
  • Ted Cruz (R) for Senate
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