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2024 United States Senate election in Texas
The 2024 United States Senate election in Texas was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Texas. Republican senator Ted Cruz was re-elected to a third term, defeating Democratic U.S. representative Colin Allred. The primary election took place on March 5, 2024, during Super Tuesday.
Early polling showed Cruz as a clear favorite, but polls closer to the election showed a closer race. Cruz ultimately outperformed polling and expectations and won re-election by 8.49%, improving on his 2018 margin by six points and flipping thirteen counties.
Texas is generally considered to be a Republican stronghold, having not elected a Democrat to any statewide office since 1994. Republicans control both U.S. Senate seats, all statewide offices, both houses of the Texas Legislature, and a large majority in Texas's U.S. House congressional delegation. Cruz was first elected in 2012, defeating Paul Sadler by 16 points and was reelected in 2018 by less than 3 points, narrowly defeating Beto O'Rourke. The close elections in 2018 prompted many electoral analysts to speculate that Texas could become a swing state, but in the 2020 and 2022 elections, Republicans increased their margins of victory. This race was considered to generally favor Cruz, but some considered the race to have the potential to become competitive.
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Ted Cruz, incumbent U.S. senator (2013–present)
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Holland Gibson, retiree
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Rufus Lopez, attorney
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Dan Crenshaw, U.S. representative from Texas's 2nd congressional district (2019–present) (ran for re-election)
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Adam Kinzinger, former U.S. representative from Illinois's 16th congressional district (2011–2023)
| Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Ted Cruz (R) | $59,159,421 | $46,606,430 | $12,710,949 |
| Poll source | Date(s)administered | Samplesize | Marginof error | TedCruz | HollandGibson | RufusLopez | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | February 2–12, 2024 | 492 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 82% | 7% | 3% | 9% | – |
Results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Cruz 70–80% 80–90% >90%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 1,977,961 | 88.30% | |
| Republican | 134,011 | 5.98% | |
| Republican | 127,986 | 5.71% | |
| 2,239,958 | 100.00% |
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Colin Allred, U.S. representative from Texas's 32nd congressional district (2019–2025)
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Meri Gomez, tax consultant
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Mark Gonzalez, former Nueces County district attorney (2017–2023)
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Roland Gutierrez, state senator from the 19th district (2021–present)
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Robert Hassan, businessman
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Steven Keough, law professor
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Heli Rodriguez-Prilliman, tech entrepreneur
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Carl Sherman, state representative from the 109th district (2019–2025)
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Thierry Tchenko, home repair nonprofit executive and former associate director of the District of Columbia Office of Policy
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Aaron Arguijo, coffee shop owner
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John Love III, former Midland city councilor and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2020 (ran for U.S. House)
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Zachariah Manning, businessman (ran for U.S. House)
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Julián Castro, former U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development (2014–2017), former mayor of San Antonio (2009–2014), and candidate for president of the United States in 2020
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Veronica Escobar, U.S. representative for Texas's 16th congressional district (2019–present) (ran for re-election, endorsed Allred)
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Scott Kelly, retired NASA astronaut and brother of Arizona Senator Mark Kelly
| Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Allred (D) | $38,433,747 | $27,983,265 | $10,450,482 |
| Mark Gonzalez (D) | $14,967 | $11,659 | $3,307 |
| Roland Gutierrez (D) | $1,301,543 | $1,146,487 | $155,055 |
| Steven Keough (D) | $27,357 | $27,730 | $0 |
| Heli Rodriguez-Prilliman (D) | $30,458 | $29,440 | $1,017 |
| Carl Sherman (D) | $173,565 | $150,616 | $22,949 |
| Thierry Tchenko (D) | $117,067 | $106,606 | $10,461 |
Results by county: Allred 20–30% 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Gutierrez 20–30% 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% Gonzalez 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% >90% Gomez 20–30% Tied No Votes
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | 569,585 | 58.87% | |
| Democratic | 160,978 | 16.64% | |
| Democratic | 85,228 | 8.81% | |
| Democratic | 44,166 | 4.56% | |
| Democratic | 31,694 | 3.28% | |
| Democratic | 21,855 | 2.26% | |
| Democratic | 21,801 | 2.25% | |
| Democratic | 18,801 | 1.94% | |
| Democratic | 13,395 | 1.38% | |
| 967,503 | 100.00% |
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Ted Brown, insurance adjuster and nominee for Texas's 17th congressional district in 2020
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Tracy Andrus, director of the Lee P. Brown Criminal Justice Institute at Wiley University
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Analisa Roche, math tutor
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | Lean R | October 1, 2024 |
| Inside Elections | Tilt R | October 31, 2024 |
| Fox News | Likely R | October 1, 2024 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean R | November 4, 2024 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill | Lean R | August 26, 2024 |
| Elections Daily | Lean R | November 4, 2024 |
| CNalysis | Tilt R | October 23, 2024 |
| RealClearPolitics | Tossup | October 30, 2024 |
| Split Ticket | Lean R | October 23, 2024 |
| 538 | Likely R | October 23, 2024 |
| Campaign finance reports as of October 16, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Ted Cruz (R) | $86,316,192 | $76,908,816 | $9,565,334 |
| Colin Allred (D) | $80,059,292 | $77,557,763 | $2,501,528 |
| No. | Date | Host | Moderators | Link | Republican | Democratic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 15, 2024 | WFAA | YouTube | P | P |
Aggregate polls
| Source of pollaggregation | Datesadministered | Datesupdated | TedCruz (R) | ColinAllred (D) | Undecided | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FiveThirtyEight | through November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 49.4% | 45.4% | 5.2% | Cruz +4.0% |
| RCP | October 22 - November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 49.2% | 44.8% | 6.0% | Cruz +4.4% |
| 270toWin | October 18 - November 3, 2024 | November 3, 2024 | 49.0% | 45.2% | 5.8% | Cruz +3.8% |
| TheHill/DDHQ | through November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 49.8% | 46.0% | 4.2% | Cruz +3.8% |
| Average | 49.4% | 45.4% | 5.2% | Cruz +4.0% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | .mw-parser-output .tooltip-dotted{border-bottom:1px dotted;cursor:help}±% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 5,990,741 | 53.05% | +2.18% | |
| Democratic | 5,031,249 | 44.56% | −3.76% | |
| Libertarian | 267,039 | 2.36% | +1.59% | |
| Write-in | 2,825 | 0.03% | ||
| 11,291,854 | 100.00% | |||
- Brewster (largest municipality: Alpine)
- Culberson (largest municipality: Van Horn)
- Frio (largest municipality: Pearsall)
- Jefferson (largest municipality: Beaumont)
- Jim Wells (largest municipality: Alice)
- Kleberg (largest municipality: Kingsville)
- La Salle (largest municipality: Cotulla)
- Maverick (largest municipality: Eagle Pass)
- Nueces (largest municipality: Corpus Christi)
- Reeves (largest municipality: Pecos)
- Starr (largest municipality: Rio Grande City)
- Val Verde (largest municipality: Del Rio)
- Zapata (largest municipality: Zapata)
Cruz won 25 of 38 congressional districts.
| District | Cruz | Allred | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 73% | 25% | Nathaniel Moran | |
| 58% | 39% | Dan Crenshaw | |
| 56% | 42% | Keith Self | |
| 63% | 35% | Pat Fallon | |
| 60% | 38% | Lance Gooden | |
| 60% | 37% | Jake Ellzey | |
| 35% | 62% | Lizzie Fletcher | |
| 63% | 35% | Morgan Luttrell | |
| 24% | 73% | Al Green | |
| 59% | 38% | Michael McCaul | |
| 70% | 28% | August Pfluger | |
| 57% | 40% | Kay Granger (118th Congress) | |
| Craig Goldman (119th Congress) | |||
| 71% | 27% | Ronny Jackson | |
| 64% | 34% | Randy Weber | |
| 54% | 44% | Monica De La Cruz | |
| 38% | 58% | Veronica Escobar | |
| 62% | 36% | Pete Sessions | |
| 26% | 71% | Erica Lee Carter (118th Congress) | |
| Sylvester Turner (119th Congress) | |||
| 73% | 25% | Jodey Arrington | |
| 34% | 63% | Joaquín Castro | |
| 59% | 39% | Chip Roy | |
| 56% | 42% | Troy Nehls | |
| 53% | 44% | Tony Gonzales | |
| 54% | 43% | Beth Van Duyne | |
| 64% | 33% | Roger Williams | |
| 58% | 40% | Michael Burgess (118th Congress) | |
| Brandon Gill (119th Congress) | |||
| 61% | 37% | Michael Cloud | |
| 48% | 49% | Henry Cuellar | |
| 33% | 64% | Sylvia Garcia | |
| 23% | 75% | Jasmine Crockett | |
| 58% | 39% | John Carter | |
| 34% | 64% | Colin Allred (118th Congress) | |
| Julie Johnson (119th Congress) | |||
| 28% | 69% | Marc Veasey | |
| 46% | 52% | Vicente Gonzalez | |
| 29% | 68% | Greg Casar | |
| 65% | 33% | Brian Babin | |
| 22% | 75% | Lloyd Doggett | |
| 57% | 41% | Wesley Hunt |
Cruz won a majority of Hispanic and Latino voters, particularly those living on the border with Mexico who had traditionally supported Democratic candidates; the NBC News exit poll showed 52% of Latinos supported Cruz, a 17-point increase from 2018.
Allred overperformed Kamala Harris in the concurrent presidential election in Texas by 5.5 points, receiving nearly 200,000 votes more than Harris and performing better than she did in the largely Hispanic Rio Grande Valley. He carried the Rio Grande Valley counties of Cameron, Duval, Hidalgo, Webb (Laredo), and Willacy, as well as Williamson and Tarrant counties that Trump simultaneously carried.
- 2024 Texas elections
Partisan clients
Official campaign websites
- Colin Allred (D) for Senate
- Tracy Andrus (WI) for Senate
- Ted Brown (L) for Senate
- Ted Cruz (R) for Senate
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