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2018 United States Senate election in Texas
The 2018 United States Senate election in Texas was held on November 6, 2018, along with other elections to the United States Senate and elections to the United States House of Representatives in additional states. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Ted Cruz secured a second term, defeating Democratic U.S. Representative Beto O'Rourke. The primary was held on March 6, 2018, the first primary of the 2018 season.
No Democrat has won a general election for statewide office in Texas since Bob Bullock was reelected as lieutenant governor in 1994, with election forecasters declaring it a safe Republican seat at the beginning of the 2018 cycle. However, O'Rourke gradually closed the gap. Leading up to the election, the race was considered unexpectedly competitive.
On Election Day, Cruz defeated O'Rourke by a margin of just under 215,000 votes, or 2.6 percent; the race was the closest U.S. Senate race in Texas since 1978.
In 2012, after a stunning upset victory in the Republican primary, then-Solicitor General of Texas Ted Cruz defeated former member of the Texas House of Representatives Paul Sadler by a 16-point margin (56%–40%). Texas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988. As conservatives began turning to the Republican Party in once strongly Democratic areas, Democratic voters in the state were largely based in the majority-Hispanic communities in Southern Texas and in populous metropolitan cities, such as Houston, Austin, San Antonio, and Dallas, as well as the heavily Hispanic city of El Paso on the state's western tip, which O'Rourke represented in the U.S. House.
Since 1990, Texas has voted for Republican statewide candidates in all elections, whether it be presidential, gubernatorial, or senatorial, often by large margins. In 1998, Governor George W. Bush won re-election by 37 points over his Democratic challenger, Garry Mauro. In 2000, Governor Bush won Texas by 21 points over Vice President Al Gore. In 2004, President Bush won Texas over Senator John Kerry by 23 points, winning rural areas by landslide margins, capturing urban zones, and coming very close to winning the Latino vote (49% to Kerry's 50%). Democrat Barack Obama lost by 7.27 percentage points in 2008 against John McCain, and 3.86 points in 2012, against Mitt Romney, respectively. In 2016, Donald Trump defeated Democrat Hillary Clinton by a 9-point margin, demonstrating a possible shift away from the Safe Republican status it had held for over a decade. This has led Democrats to begin targeting Texas as a potential future swing state. It should also be noted that Ted Cruz defeated Donald Trump in the Texas Republican primary for U.S. president in 2016.
As of June 2018, Senator Cruz held a 49%–44% approval rating among Texans in a state Donald Trump won by 9 points against Hillary Clinton in 2016. Among groups that tend to affiliate themselves more with the Democratic Party, Senator Cruz held a 29% approval rating among Hispanics, 37% among women, and 42% among college-educated voters.
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Ted Cruz, incumbent U.S. senator and former candidate for president in 2016
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Stefano de Stefano, attorney
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Bruce Jacobson, television producer
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Mary Miller, CPA
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Geraldine Sam, former mayor of La Marque
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Thomas Dillingham, businessman
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Dan McQueen, former mayor of Corpus Christi
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George P. Bush, Texas Land Commissioner and grandson of former President George H. W. Bush (ran for re-election)
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Michael McCaul, U.S. representative from Texas's 10th congressional district (ran for re-election)
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Dan Patrick, lieutenant governor of Texas (ran for re-election)
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Rick Perry, Secretary of Energy, former governor of Texas and candidate for president in 2012 and 2016
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Katrina Pierson, national spokesperson for the Donald Trump's presidential campaign in 2016 and candidate for House district TX-32 in 2014
| Poll source | Date(s)administered | Samplesize | Marginof error | TedCruz | Stefanode Stefano | BruceJacobson | MaryMiller | GeraldineSam | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dixie Strategies | February 22–23, 2018 | – | ± 4.7% | 73% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 21% |
| University of Texas | February 1–12, 2018 | 612 | ± 5.3% | 91% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 2% | – |
County results of the Republican primary .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Cruz Cruz—>90% Cruz—80–90% Cruz—70–80% No votes
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 1,322,724 | 85.36% | |
| Republican | 94,715 | 6.11% | |
| Republican | 64,791 | 4.18% | |
| Republican | 44,456 | 2.87% | |
| Republican | 22,887 | 1.48% | |
| 1,549,573 | 100% |
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Beto O'Rourke, U.S. representative from Texas's 16th congressional district
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Sema Hernandez, activist and organizer for the Poor People's Campaign, baseball coach and small business owner
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Edward Kimbrough
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Joaquin Castro, U.S. representative from Texas's 20th congressional district (ran for re-election)
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Julian Castro, former U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development and mayor of San Antonio
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Wendy Davis, former state senator and nominee for governor in 2014
| Poll source | Date(s)administered | Samplesize | Marginof error | SemaHernandez | EdwardKimbrough | BetoO'Rourke | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dixie Strategies | February 22–23, 2018 | – | ± 5.7% | 6% | 4% | 38% | 53% |
| University of Texas | February 1–12, 2018 | 453 | ± 7.4% | 19% | 8% | 73% | – |
County results of the Democratic primary for Class 1 United States Senate in Texas, 2018 O'Rourke O'Rourke—>90% O'Rourke—80–90% O'Rourke—70–80% O'Rourke—60–70% O'Rourke—50–60% O'Rourke—40–50% O'Rourke—<40% Kimbrough / O'Rourke—50% O'Rourke/Hernandez tie O'Rourke/Hernandez tie—<50% O'Rourke/Kimbrough tie O'Rourke/Kimbrough tie—50% Hernandez Hernandez—>90% Hernandez—80–90% Hernandez—70–80% Hernandez—60–70% Hernandez—50–60% Hernandez—40–50% Hernandez—<40% Kimbrough Kimbrough—<40% Kimbrough—40–50% Kimbrough—50–60% Kimbrough—60–70% Kimbrough—70–80% Kimbrough—80–90% Kimbrough—>90%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | 644,632 | 61.81% | |
| Democratic | 247,424 | 23.72% | |
| Democratic | 150,858 | 14.47% | |
| 1,042,914 | 100% |
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Neal Dikeman, businessman
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Carl Bible, nurse
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Jonathan Jenkins, tech entrepreneur
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Bob McNeil, businessman (American Citizen Party)
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Matthew Dowd, former strategist for President George W. Bush
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | Tossup | October 26, 2018 |
| Inside Elections | Likely R | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean R | November 5, 2018 |
| CNN | Lean R | October 5, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics | Lean R | November 5, 2018 |
| Daily Kos | Lean R | October 5, 2018 |
| Fox News | Lean R | October 30, 2018 |
Notes
- Complete video of debate, September 21, 2018
- Complete video of debate, October 16, 2018
In the third quarter of 2018, O'Rourke raised $38.1 million. This was the largest quarterly total raised by a U.S. Senate candidate until Jaime Harrison raised $57 million in the third quarter of 2020 in the South Carolina election. Cruz and O'Rourke combined to raise a record-setting total of $126 million during the 2018 campaign.
| Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2018 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Ted Cruz (R) | $45,668,718 | $45,990,176 | $157,959 |
| Beto O'Rourke (D) | $80,344,836 | $80,458,720 | $284,816 |
| Neal Dikeman (L) | $33,732 | $33,398 | $333 |
| Poll source | Date(s)administered | Samplesize | Marginof error | TedCruz (R) | BetoO'Rourke (D) | NealDikeman (L) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trafalgar Group (R) | November 3–5, 2018 | 2,135 | ± 2.1% | 52% | 43% | – | 1% | 4% |
| Change Research (D-Reason to Believe PAC) | November 1–2, 2018 | 1,211 | – | 49% | 49% | 1% | – | – |
| Emerson College | October 28–30, 2018 | 781 | ± 3.7% | 50% | 47% | 1% | – | 2% |
| Quinnipiac University | October 22–28, 2018 | 1,078 | ± 3.5% | 51% | 46% | – | 1% | 3% |
| University of Texas Tyler | October 15–28, 2018 | 905 LV | – | 47% | 43% | – | 4% | 6% |
| 1,033 RV | ± 3.0% | 47% | 42% | – | 4% | 8% | ||
| Dixie Strategies | October 25–26, 2018 | 588 | ± 4.0% | 52% | 42% | – | – | 5% |
| GBA Strategies (D-End Citizens United) | October 18–21, 2018 | 1,000 | ± 4.0% | 50% | 46% | 2% | – | 2% |
| University of Texas/YouGov | October 15–21, 2018 | 927 | ± 3.2% | 51% | 45% | 2% | 2% | – |
| Ipsos | October 12–18, 2018 | 1,298 | ± 3.2% | 49% | 44% | – | 3% | 1% |
| Tulchin Research (D-MoveOn) | October 10–14, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 49% | 45% | 3% | – | 3% |
| CNN/SSRS | October 9–13, 2018 | 716 LV | ± 4.5% | 52% | 45% | – | 0% | 2% |
| 862 RV | ± 4.1% | 50% | 45% | – | 0% | 3% | ||
| WPA Intelligence (R-Club for Growth) | October 8–13, 2018 | 801 | ± 3.5% | 52% | 43% | 1% | – | 4% |
| NYT Upshot/Siena College | October 8–11, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.6% | 51% | 43% | 1% | – | 5% |
| Quinnipiac University | October 3–9, 2018 | 730 | ± 4.4% | 54% | 45% | – | 0% | 2% |
| YouGov | October 2–5, 2018 | 881 | – | 50% | 44% | – | 2% | 4% |
| Emerson College | October 1–5, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 47% | 42% | – | 3% | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) | September 19–20, 2018 | 613 | ± 4.0% | 48% | 45% | – | – | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling (D-End Citizens United) | September 19–20, 2018 | 603 | ± 4.0% | 49% | 46% | – | – | 5% |
| Vox Populi Polling | September 16–18, 2018 | 508 | ± 4.4% | 50% | 50% | – | – | – |
| Quinnipiac University | September 11–17, 2018 | 807 | ± 4.1% | 54% | 45% | – | 0% | 1% |
| Chism Strategies (D-Reform Austin) | September 11–12, 2018 | 1,161 | ± 3.0% | 49% | 45% | – | – | 5% |
| Ipsos | September 6–14, 2018 | 992 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 47% | – | 3% | 5% |
| Crosswind Media & Public Relations | September 6–9, 2018 | 800 | ± 4.0% | 47% | 44% | – | – | – |
| Dixie Strategies | September 6–7, 2018 | 519 | ± 4.3% | 46% | 42% | 1% | – | 11% |
| Emerson College | August 22–25, 2018 | 550 | ± 4.4% | 38% | 37% | – | 4% | 21% |
| NBC News/Marist | August 12–16, 2018 | 759 | ± 3.8% | 49% | 45% | – | 1% | 6% |
| Civiqs | August 8–11, 2018 | – | – | 47% | 48% | – | – | – |
| Public Policy Polling (D-End Citizens United) | August 1–2, 2018 | 797 | ± 3.5% | 46% | 42% | – | – | – |
| Quinnipiac University | July 26–31, 2018 | 1,118 | ± 3.5% | 49% | 43% | – | 0% | 6% |
| Texas Lyceum | July 9–26, 2018 | 441 LV | ± 4.7% | 41% | 39% | 1% | – | 19% |
| 806 RV | ± 3.5% | 36% | 34% | 3% | – | 24% | ||
| Gravis Marketing | July 3–7, 2018 | 602 | ± 4.0% | 51% | 42% | – | – | 7% |
| YouGov | June 19–22, 2018 | 821 LV | – | 50% | 40% | – | 3% | 7% |
| 1,025 RV | ± 3.6% | 44% | 36% | – | 3% | 13% | ||
| University of Texas/YouGov | June 8–17, 2018 | 1,200 | ± 2.8% | 41% | 36% | 2% | 3% | 17% |
| GQR Research (D-End Citizens United) | May 29 – June 5, 2018 | 1,000 | ± 3.1% | 49% | 43% | – | – | 8% |
| Quinnipiac University | May 23–29, 2018 | 961 | ± 3.8% | 50% | 39% | – | 0% | 9% |
| Baselice & Associates (R-TLRPAC) | May 21–28, 2018 | 601 | ± 4.1% | 48% | 36% | 3% | 1% | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling (D-Giffords) | May 21–22, 2018 | 861 | ± 3.3% | 48% | 42% | – | – | 10% |
| JMC Analytics (R-Red Metrics Group) | May 19–21, 2018 | 575 | ± 4.1% | 47% | 40% | – | 6% | 7% |
| Quinnipiac University | April 12–17, 2018 | 1,029 | ± 3.6% | 47% | 44% | – | 1% | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling (D-End Citizens United) | January 17–18, 2018 | 757 | ± 3.6% | 45% | 37% | – | – | 18% |
| WPA Intelligence (R-Cruz) | December 12–14, 2017 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 52% | 34% | – | 1% | 13% |
| Texas Lyceum | April 3–9, 2017 | 1,000 | ± 3.1% | 30% | 30% | – | 3% | 37% |
On November 6, 2018, Ted Cruz defeated Beto O'Rourke. However, O'Rourke performed unexpectedly well, outperforming pre-election polling. In addition, O'Rourke flipped numerous counties that Donald Trump carried in 2016, including Williamson (includes Round Rock and Georgetown), historically conservative Tarrant (includes Fort Worth and suburbs within the DFW metroplex), Jefferson (includes Beaumont and Port Arthur), Nueces (includes Corpus Christi), sparsely populated Brewster (includes Big Bend National Park), and Hays (includes San Marcos). Cruz won only one county that voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, sparsely populated Kenedy (coastal region south of Corpus Christi).
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | .mw-parser-output .tooltip-dotted{border-bottom:1px dotted;cursor:help}±% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 4,260,553 | 50.89% | −5.57% | |
| Democratic | 4,045,632 | 48.33% | +7.71% | |
| Libertarian | 65,470 | 0.78% | −1.28% | |
| 8,371,655 | 100% | N/A | ||
| Column 1 |
|---|
| Counties won by Cruz |
| Counties won by O'Rourke |
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Brewster (largest municipality: Alpine)
- Fort Bend (largest municipality: Sugar Land)
- Harris (largest municipality: Houston)
- Hays (largest municipality: San Marcos)
- Nueces (largest municipality: Corpus Christi)
- Tarrant (largest municipality: Fort Worth)
- Williamson (largest municipality: Round Rock)
Cruz won 20 of 36 congressional districts; O'Rourke won the other 16, including three held by Republicans.
| District | Cruz | O'Rourke | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72% | 28% | Louie Gohmert | |
| 50% | 49% | Ted Poe | |
| Dan Crenshaw | |||
| 51% | 48% | Sam Johnson | |
| Van Taylor | |||
| 74% | 25% | John Ratcliffe | |
| 60% | 39% | Jeb Hensarling | |
| Lance Gooden | |||
| 51% | 48% | Joe Barton | |
| Ron Wright | |||
| 46% | 53% | John Culberson | |
| Lizzie Fletcher | |||
| 71% | 28% | Kevin Brady | |
| 19% | 81% | Al Green | |
| 49% | 50% | Michael McCaul | |
| 78% | 22% | Mike Conaway | |
| 60% | 39% | Kay Granger | |
| 79% | 20% | Mac Thornberry | |
| 58% | 41% | Randy Weber | |
| 42% | 57% | Vicente Gonzalez | |
| 26% | 74% | Beto O'Rourke | |
| Veronica Escobar | |||
| 54% | 45% | Bill Flores | |
| 20% | 79% | Sheila Jackson Lee | |
| 72% | 28% | Jodey Arrington | |
| 33% | 66% | Joaquín Castro | |
| 50% | 49% | Lamar Smith | |
| Chip Roy | |||
| 50% | 49% | Pete Olson | |
| 47% | 52% | Will Hurd | |
| 48% | 51% | Kenny Marchant | |
| 52% | 47% | Roger Williams | |
| 57% | 42% | Michael Burgess | |
| 60% | 39% | Michael Cloud | |
| 41% | 59% | Henry Cuellar | |
| 25% | 74% | Gene Green | |
| Sylvia Garcia | |||
| 18% | 82% | Eddie Bernice Johnson | |
| 51% | 48% | John Carter | |
| 44% | 55% | Pete Sessions | |
| Colin Allred | |||
| 22% | 77% | Marc Veasey | |
| 42% | 58% | Filemon Vela Jr. | |
| 27% | 72% | Lloyd Doggett | |
| 71% | 28% | Brian Babin |
- Candidates at Vote Smart
- Candidates at Ballotpedia
- Campaign finance at FEC
- Campaign finance at OpenSecrets
Official campaign websites
- Ted Cruz (R) for Senate
- Neal Dikeman (L) for Senate
- Bob McNeil (Am. Citizen)
- Beto O'Rourke (D) for Senate
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