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2018 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election


The 2018 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the Governor and Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania, concurrently with the election of Pennsylvania's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various local elections. Incumbent Governor Tom Wolf won a second term by a double-digit margin, defeating Republican challenger Scott Wagner and two third-party candidates from the Green Party, Paul Glover and Libertarian Party, Ken Krawchuk. The primary elections were held on May 15. This was the only Democratic-held governorship up for election in a state that Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election.

Wagner won eight counties that Wolf won in 2014: Lawrence, Greene, Fayette, Cambria, Clinton, Northumberland, Carbon, and Schuylkill. Meanwhile, this was the first time since Bob Casey Jr.'s landslide State Treasurer win in 2004 that Cumberland County voted for the Democrat in a statewide election.

  • Tom Wolf, incumbent governor
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic741,676100.0
741,676100.0

Incumbent Lieutenant Governor Mike Stack faced several controversies during his term, including mistreatment of state police officers assigned as his security detail. As a result, he faced several challengers in the primary, including 2016 Senate candidate John Fetterman. Stack was ultimately defeated by Fetterman, placing fourth overall.

  • John Fetterman, mayor of Braddock and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016

  • Nina Ahmad, former deputy mayor of Philadelphia

  • Kathi Cozzone, Chester County Commissioner

  • Ray Sosa, banker and insurance broker

  • Mike Stack, incumbent lieutenant governor

  • Aryanna Berringer, Iraq War veteran and nominee for PA-16 in 2012 (endorsed Kathi Cozzone)

  • Madeleine Dean, state representative (running for PA-04)

  • Craig Lehman, Lancaster County commissioner (endorsed Kathi Cozzone)

  • Erin McClelland, nominee for PA-12 in 2014 and 2016 (endorsed Fetterman)

Results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{}  Fetterman—70–80%   Fetterman—60–70%   Fetterman—50–60%   Fetterman—40–50%   Fetterman—<40%   Ahmad—40–50%   Ahmad—<40%   Cozzone—60–70%   Cozzone—<40%   Stack—<40%

PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic288,22938.0
Democratic182,30923.8
Democratic142,41018.6
Democratic127,25916.6
Democratic27,4273.6
767,634100.0
  • Scott Wagner, state senator

  • Laura Ellsworth, attorney

  • Paul Mango, businessman and former U.S. Army officer

  • Mike Turzai, speaker of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives and nominee for PA-04 in 1998

  • Paul Addis, businessman (ran for U.S. Senate)

  • Lou Barletta, U.S. representative (ran for U.S. Senate)

  • Jake Corman, majority leader of the Pennsylvania State Senate

  • Mike Kelly, U.S. representative

  • Dave Reed, majority leader of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives

Poll sourceDate(s)administeredSamplesizeMarginof errorLauraEllsworthPaulMangoScottWagnerOtherUndecided
Susquehanna Polling & ResearchMay 4–8, 2018545± 4.2%18%23%37%1%22%
ColdSpark Media (R-Ellsworth)May 201817%24%28%30%
McLaughlin & Associates (R-Wagner)April 2–3, 2018500± 4.5%9%24%50%17%
Revily (R-American Principles Project)March 13–15, 2018800± 3.4%4%18%20%57%
McLaughlin & Associates (R-Wagner)September 18–20, 2017400± 4.9%16%45%39%
5%13%45%37%

Results by county:   Wagner—60–70%   Wagner—50–60%   Wagner—40–50%   Mango—40–50%   Mango—50–60%

PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican324,01344.3
Republican270,01436.9
Republican137,65018.8
731,677100.0
  • Jeff Bartos, businessman (running with Scott Wagner)

  • Kathy Coder, political activist

  • Peg Luksik, political activist

  • Diana Irey Vaughan, Washington County commissioner (running with Paul Mango)

  • Joe Gale, Montgomery County commissioner (did not meet minimum age requirement of 30)

  • Gordon Denlinger, former state representative

  • Otto Voit, candidate for state treasurer in 2016

  • Dave Argall, state senator and nominee for PA-17 in 2010

  • Erin Elmore, attorney, political correspondent and The Apprentice contestant

  • Dan Meuser, former Pennsylvania secretary of revenue and candidate for PA-10 in 2008 (running for PA-09)

  • Justin Simmons, state representative (running for PA-15)

Results by county:   Bartos—60–70%   Bartos—50–60%   Bartos—40–50%   Bartos—<40%   Coder—40–50%   Coder—<40%   Vaughan—70–80%   Vaughan—50–60%   Vaughan—40–50%   Luksik—50–60%   Luksik—<40%

PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican317,61946.8
Republican147,80521.8
Republican119,40017.6
Republican93,66713.8
678,491100.0
  • Paul Glover, community organizer

  • Jocolyn Bowser-Bostick

  • Ken Krawchuk, technology consultant and nominee for governor in 1998, 2002, and 2014

  • Kathleen Smith, entrepreneur (running with Ken Krawchuk)

  • Paul Glover (G), author, community organizer

  • Ken Krawchuk (L), IT entrepreneur, freelance writer

  • Scott Wagner (R), former state senator

  • Tom Wolf (D), incumbent governor

  • October 1, 2018: Complete video of debate (begins at 08:50)

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political ReportLikely DOctober 26, 2018
The Washington PostLikely DNovember 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEightSafe DNovember 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political ReportLikely DNovember 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal BallSafe DNovember 5, 2018
RealClearPoliticsSafe DNovember 4, 2018
Daily KosSafe DNovember 5, 2018
Fox NewsLikely DNovember 5, 2018
PoliticoLikely DNovember 5, 2018
GoverningLikely DNovember 5, 2018
Poll sourceDate(s)administeredSamplesizeMarginof errorTomWolf (D)ScottWagner (R)OtherUndecided
Change ResearchNovember 2–4, 20181,83353%42%3%
Research Co.November 1–3, 2018450± 4.6%54%39%1%6%
Muhlenberg CollegeOctober 28 – November 1, 2018421± 5.5%58%37%
Franklin & Marshall CollegeOctober 22–28, 2018214 LV± 9.5%59%33%5%
537 RV± 6.0%57%27%6%10%
Morning ConsultOctober 1–2, 20181,188± 3.0%48%36%16%
Franklin & Marshall CollegeSeptember 17–23, 2018204 LV52%30%17%
545 RV± 6.1%52%28%2%18%
IpsosSeptember 12–20, 20181,080± 3.0%55%38%2%6%
Muhlenberg CollegeSeptember 13–19, 2018404± 5.5%55%36%6%2%
Rasmussen ReportsSeptember 12–13, 2018800± 3.5%52%40%3%5%
Franklin & Marshall CollegeAugust 20–26, 2018222 LV52%35%1%12%
511 RV± 6.1%51%32%5%14%
Marist CollegeAugust 12–16, 2018713± 4.2%54%40%<1%6%
Commonwealth Leaders Fund (R)August 13–15, 20182,012± 3.6%46%43%3%8%
Suffolk UniversityJune 21–25, 2018500± 4.4%49%36%1%14%
Franklin & Marshall CollegeJune 4–10, 2018472± 6.5%48%29%1%23%
Muhlenberg CollegeApril 4–12, 2018414± 5.5%47%31%5%16%
Franklin & Marshall CollegeMarch 19–26, 2018137± 6.8%38%21%6%35%

The election was not close, with Wolf defeating Wagner by about 17 percentage points. Wolf won by running up large margins in Allegheny County, including Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia County, including Philadelphia. Wolf's victory can also be attributed to his strong performance in Philadelphia suburbs.

PartyCandidateVotes%.mw-parser-output .tooltip-dotted{border-bottom:1px dotted;cursor:help}±%
Democratic2,895,65257.77%+2.84%
Republican2,039,88240.70%−4.37%
Libertarian49,2290.98%N/A
Green27,7920.55%N/A
5,012,555100.00%N/A
  • Cambria (largest municipality: Johnstown)

  • Carbon (largest municipality: Lehighton)

  • Clinton (Largest city: Lock Haven)

  • Fayette (largest borough: Uniontown)

  • Greene (largest municipality: Waynesburg)

  • Lawrence (largest municipality: New Castle)

  • Northumberland (largest borough: Sunbury)

  • Schuylkill (largest city: Pottsville)

  • Cumberland (largest municipality: Carlisle)

Wolf won 12 of 18 congressional districts, including three that elected Republicans.

DistrictWolfWagnerRepresentative
59%40%Brian Fitzpatrick
79%20%Brendan Boyle
93%6%Dwight Evans
66%32%Madeleine Dean
69%29%Mary Gay Scanlon
61%37%Chrissy Houlahan
59%39%Susan Wild
56%43%Matt Cartwright
44%54%Dan Meuser
54%44%Scott Perry
45%53%Lloyd Smucker
39%59%Tom Marino
35%63%John Joyce
48%51%Guy Reschenthaler
38%60%Glenn Thompson
50%49%Mike Kelly
59%39%Conor Lamb
72%26%Mike Doyle
  • 2018 United States gubernatorial elections

  • 2018 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania

  • 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Pennsylvania

  • 2018 Pennsylvania Senate election

  • 2018 Pennsylvania House of Representatives election

  • Candidates at Vote Smart

  • Candidates at Ballotpedia

Debates

  • GOP Primary Debate, January 20, 2018

Official gubernatorial campaign websites

  • Paul Glover (G) for Governor
  • Ken Krawchuk (L) for Governor
  • Scott Wagner (R) for Governor
  • Tom Wolf (D) for Governor

Official lieutenant gubernatorial campaign websites

  • Jeff Bartos (R) for Lieutenant Governor
  • John Fetterman (D) for Lieutenant Governor
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