World oil market chronology from 2003

2003

United States crude oil prices averaged $30 a barrel in 2003 due to political instability within various oil producing nations. It rose 19% from the average in 2002. The 2003 invasion of Iraq marked a significant event for oil markets because Iraq contains a large amount of global oil reserves. The conflict coincided with an increase in global demand for petroleum, but it also reduced Iraq's current oil production and has been blamed for increasing oil prices. However, oil company CEO Matthew Simmons emphasizes the peaking and decline of oil-exporting in Mexico, Indonesia and the United Kingdom is the reason for the price gouging. According to Simmons,{{cite web |access-date= 2008-04-05 |author-link= Matthew Simmons |archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20080411112202/http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/Another%20Nail%20in%20the%20Coffin.pdf |archive-date = 2008-04-11

2004 to 2008: rising costs of oil

After retreating for several months in late 2004 and early 2005, crude oil prices rose to new highs in March 2005. The price on NYMEX has been above US$50 per barrel since March 5, 2005. In June 2005, crude oil prices broke the psychological barrier of $60 per barrel.

From 2005 onwards, the price elasticity of the crude oil market changed significantly. Before 2005 a small increase in oil price lead to an noticeable expansion of the production volume. Later price rises let the production grow only by small numbers. This was the reason to call 2005 a tipping point.{{cite web |access-date = 2015-03-08 |archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20140721225504/http://www.washington.edu/research/.SITEPARTS/.documents/.or/Nature_Comment_01_26_2012.pdf |archive-date = 2014-07-21 |url-status = dead

After the destruction of Hurricane Katrina in the United States, gasoline prices reached a record high during the first week of September 2005. The average retail price was, on average, US$3.04 per U.S. gallon.{{cite web | access-date=2006-09-26 | access-date=2007-11-29

In mid-2006, crude oil was traded for over US$79 per barrel (bbl), setting an all-time record. The run-up is attributed to a 1.9 increase in gasoline consumption, geopolitical tensions resulting from North Korea's missile launch. The ongoing Iraq war, as well as Israel and Lebanon going to war are also causative factors. The higher price of oil substantially cut growth of world oil demand in 2006, including a reduction in oil demand of the OECD. After news of North Korea's successful nuclear test on October 9, 2006, oil prices rose past $60 a barrel, but fell back the next day.

On October 19, 2007, U.S. light crude rose to $90.02 per barrel due to a combination of ongoing tensions in eastern Turkey and the reducing strength of the U.S. dollar. Prices fell briefly on the expectation of increased U.S. crude oil stocks, however they quickly rose to a peak of $92.22 on October 26, 2007.

On January 2, 2008, U.S. light crude surpassed $100 per barrel before falling to $99.69 due to tensions on New Years Day in Nigeria, and on suspicion that U.S. crude stocks will have dropped for the seventh consecutive week. A BBC report from the following day stated a single trader bid up the price; Stephen Schork, a former floor trader on the New York Mercantile Exchange and the editor of an oil market newsletter, said one floor trader bought 1000 oilbbl, the smallest amount permitted, and immediately sold it for $99.40 at a $600 loss. Oil fell back later in the week to $97.91 at the close of trading on Friday, January 4, in part due to a weak jobs report that showed unemployment had risen.

On March 5, 2008, OPEC accused the United States of economic "mismanagement" that was pushing oil prices to record highs, rebuffing calls to boost output and laying blame at the George W. Bush administration. Oil prices surged above $110 to a new inflation-adjusted record on March 12, 2008, before settling at $109.92. On April 18, 2008, the price of oil broke $117 per barrel after a Nigerian militant group claimed an attack on an oil pipeline. Oil prices rose to a new high of $119.90 a barrel on April 22, 2008, before dipping and then rising $3 on April 25, 2008, to $119.10 on the New York Mercantile Exchange after a news report that a ship contracted by the U.S. Military Sealift Command fired at an Iranian boat.

On June 6, prices rose $11 in 24 hours, the largest gain in history due to the possibility of an Israeli attack on Iran. The combination of two major oil suppliers reducing supply generated fears of a repeat of the 1973 oil crisis. The mid-July decision of Saudi Arabia to increase oil output caused little significant influence on prices. According to the oil minister of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Gholam-Hossein Nozari, the world markets were saturated and a Saudi promise of increased production would not lower prices. Several Asian refineries were refusing Saudi petroleum in late June because they were over priced grade.

On July 3, "the Brent North Sea crude contract for August delivery rose to $US145.01 a barrel" in Asian trade. London Brent crude reached a record of $145.75 a barrel, and Brent crude for August delivery peaked to a record $145.11 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange, and to $144.44 a barrel on the NYMExchange. By midday in Europe, crude rose to $145.85 a barrel on the NYME while Brent crude futures rose to a trading record of $146.69 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

2008: oil prices peak at $145.85 then bottom at $32

On July 15, 2008, a bubble-bursting sell-off began after remarks by President Bush the previous day that the ban on oil drilling would be lifted. This precipitated an $8 drop, the biggest since the first US-Iraq war. By the end of the week, crude oil fell 11% to $128, also affected by easing of tensions between the US and Iran. By August 13, prices had fallen to $113 a barrel. By the middle of September, oil price fell below $100 for the first time in over six months, falling below $92 in the aftermath of the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy.

A stronger US dollar and a likely decline in European demand were suggested to be among the causes of the decline. By October 24, the price of crude dropped to $64.15, and closed at $60.77 on November 6. By the end of December, 2008, oil had bottomed out at $32.

2009

In January 2009, oil prices rose temporarily because of tensions in the Gaza Strip.{{cite news | access-date=2011-03-12 | archive-url=https://archive.today/20130116100556/http://www.agweekly.com/articles/2009/01/31/news/markets/markets57.txt | url-status=dead | archive-date=January 16, 2013 | access-date=2011-03-12

2010

On May 21, 2010, the price of oil had dropped in two weeks from $88 to $70 mainly due to concerns over how European countries would reduce budget deficits; if the European economy slowed down, this would mean less demand for crude oil. Also, if the euro area crisis caused the American economy to have problems, demand for oil would be reduced further.{{cite news

Prices rose back to $90/barrel in December 2010. The US average for a gallon of 87 octane regular unleaded averaged $3.00/gallon on December 23, sparking fear of a second recession if prices reached $100/barrel and $4.00/gallon gasoline, as forecasted for spring 2011. The price increases in December were based on global demand and the Arctic blasts affecting North America and Europe.

2011–2013

Main article: 2011–2013 world oil market chronology

2011

Political turmoil in Egypt, Libya, Yemen, and Bahrain drove oil prices to $95/barrel in late February 2011. A few days prior, oil prices on the NYMEX closed at $86. Oil prices topped at $103 on February 24 where oil production is curtailed to the political upheaval in Libya.

Oil supplies remained high, and Saudi Arabia assured an increase in production to counteract shutdowns. Still, the Mideast and North African crisis led to a rise in oil prices to the highest level in two years, with gasoline prices following. Though most Libyan oil went to Europe, all oil prices reacted. The average price of gasoline in the United States increased 6 cents to $3.17.{{cite news|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/23/business/global/23oil.html?ref=gasolineprices

The weakened U.S. Dollar resulted in a spike to $112/barrel with the national average of $3.74/gallon – with expectations of damaging the U.S. economy suggestive of a long-term recession. As of April 26, the national average was $3.87 – with a fear of $4/gallon as the nationwide average prior to the summer driving season.

Crude oil reached $114.83 on May 2, the highest since September 2008., The national average for gasoline rose on May 5, 2011, for the 44th straight day, reaching $3.98. However, that same day, West Texas Intermediate crude fell 9 percent, ending the day below $100 a barrel, the lowest since March 16, |archive-url=https://archive.today/20130204045651/http://www.thesunnews.com/2011/05/06/2142601/oil-drops-below-100-per-barrel.html |url-status=dead |archive-date=February 4, 2013 after the most dramatic single-day drop in over two years. Gas prices fell slightly on May 6, and experts predicted $3.50 a gallon by summer.{{cite news|url=http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-05-02/oil-jumps-to-31-month-high-on-concern-about-al-qaeda-reprisals.html |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110507110354/http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-05-02/oil-jumps-to-31-month-high-on-concern-about-al-qaeda-reprisals.html |url-status=dead |archive-date=May 7, 2011 |archive-url=https://archive.today/20130204170802/http://www.thesunnews.com/2011/05/07/2144489/gas-price-to-drop-as-oil-joins.html |url-status=dead |archive-date=February 4, 2013

In mid-June, West Texas Intermediate crude for July delivery fell nearly $2 to $93.01, the lowest price since February. The dollar was up and the euro and other currencies down, and the euro area crisis made investors concerned. London Brent crude fell 81 cents to $113.21. On June 15 the Energy Information Association said oil consumption was down 3.5% from a year earlier, but wholesale gasoline demand was up for the first time in several weeks. The price of gas on June 17 was $3.67.5 a gallon, 25.1 cents lower than a month earlier but 96.8 cents above a year earlier. |archive-url=https://archive.today/20130204112828/http://www.thesunnews.com/2011/06/18/2226742/oil-falls-2-percent-to-93-a-barrel.html |url-status=dead |archive-date=February 4, 2013 On June 24, the price of gas was $3.62.8 and expected to go much lower due to the opening of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. U.S. oil prices fell below $90 before rising again, and Brent crude fell 2%.{{cite news|url=https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna43541488 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110629051149/http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43541488/ns/business-oil_and_energy/?gt1=43001 |url-status=live |archive-date=June 29, 2011

In August, the same pessimistic economic news that caused stock prices to fall also decreased expected energy demand. On August 8, oil fell over 6%, in its largest drop since May, to $81, its lowest price of the year.{{cite news|url=http://www.nydailynews.com/money/2011/08/09/2011-08-09_gas_prices_fall_to_lowest_price_all_year_after_stock_values_plummet.html

During October, the price of oil rose 22%, the fastest pace since February, as worries over the U.S. economy decreased, leading to predictions of $4 by early 2012. As of November 8, the price reached $96.80. Gas prices were not following the increase, due to lower demand resulting from the economy, the normal decrease in travel, lower oil prices in other countries, and production of winter blends which cost less. The average rose slightly to $3.41.{{cite news|url=http://www.newsobserver.com/2011/11/09/1629689/oil-soars-but-dont-worry-yet-at.html

2012

The CIBC reported that the global oil industry continued to produce massive amounts of oil in spite of a stagnant crude oil market. Oil production from the Bakken formation was forecast in 2012 to grow by 600,000 barrels every year through 2016. By 2012 unconventional Canadian tight oil and oil sands production was also surging.

Shortages of oil could have resulted if Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of exported oil travels, as a result of sanctions due to the country's nuclear policies. The price of oil stayed near $100 throughout January because of concerns over supplies, and the European debt situation. The average price of gas was $3.38 on January 20, up 17 cents from a month earlier.{{cite news|url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/markets/retail-gasoline-prices-stay-high-on-concerns-about-the-middle-east-and-europe/2012/01/20/gIQAzRBeEQ_story.html |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190922183337/https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/markets/retail-gasoline-prices-stay-high-on-concerns-about-the-middle-east-and-europe/2012/01/20/gIQAzRBeEQ_story.html |url-status=dead |archive-date=September 22, 2019 Brent crude was up 11% for the year to $119.58 on February 17, with cold weather in Europe and higher Third World demand, and West Texas Intermediate crude was up 19% to $103.24. The average price of gas was $3.53.{{cite news|url=http://www.news-record.com/content/2012/02/20/article/gas_prices_are_highest_ever_for_this_time_of_year

On April 24, gasoline was $3.85 compared to $3.86 a year earlier; it had been two years since gas prices were lower than the previous year. Crude oil prices were down; West Texas Intermediate was $103.55 a barrel, down from over $107 late in March,{{cite web|url=http://www.uprr.com/customers/surcharge/wti.shtml |access-date=2012-04-26}} and Brent Crude $118.16{{cite news|url=https://news.yahoo.com/us-gasoline-prices-now-cheaper-ago-194058514--finance.html|title=US gasoline prices now cheaper than a year ago

After falling to its lowest price since October 2011, Benchmark crude rose 5.8% to $82.18 on June 29, with Brent crude up 4.5% to $95.51. European bailout efforts during the euro area crisis included, decreasing likelihood of failures. Also, European countries decided not to buy Iranian oil. The price of gas was $3.35, the lowest since January 6.{{cite news|url=http://www.boston.com/business/markets/2012/06/29/oil-soars-europe-moves-bolster-banks/UWrMRCquiX2fdoJn2ECfVM/story.html

On August 7, a California refinery fire contributed to a jump in oil futures. Other refinery problems, a pipeline leak, fears about Iran, the crisis in Syria, North Sea problems, and Tropical Storm Ernesto all contributed to a 20% jump in oil prices in six weeks. The price of gas reached $3.63 but was not expected to go much higher.{{cite news|url=https://money.cnn.com/2012/08/07/news/economy/gas-prices/?source=cnn_bin |title=Gas prices climb 30 cents a gallon |access-date=August 20, 2012 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120820151323/http://www.myrtlebeachonline.com/2012/08/17/3005587/oil-rises-us-considers-release.html |archive-date=August 20, 2012 |url-status=dead

In mid-December, gas prices reached $3.25, the lowest for 2012.{{cite news|url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/oil-rises-to-near-87-a-barrel-amid-hopes-for-increased-economic-stimulus-in-japan-china/2012/12/17/057750f2-4828-11e2-8af9-9b50cb4605a7_story.html |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121218054009/http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/oil-rises-to-near-87-a-barrel-amid-hopes-for-increased-economic-stimulus-in-japan-china/2012/12/17/057750f2-4828-11e2-8af9-9b50cb4605a7_story.html |archive-date=December 18, 2012 |url-status=dead}} Oil was trading for between $84 and $90.{{cite news|url=http://www.foxbusiness.com/news/2012/12/17/oil-prices-lifted-by-progress-on-fiscal-cliff-talks/

2013

On January 17, with good economic news in the United States, Benchmark oil reached its highest level since September, going over $95. Brent rose above $110.{{cite news|url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/oil-falls-to-94-a-barrel-as-us-supplies-remain-ample/2013/01/17/ba0e8178-6071-11e2-bc4f-1f06fffb7acf_story.html |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190902204058/https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/oil-falls-to-94-a-barrel-as-us-supplies-remain-ample/2013/01/17/ba0e8178-6071-11e2-bc4f-1f06fffb7acf_story.html |url-status=dead |archive-date=September 2, 2019

On July 10, oil prices were the highest in more than a year as a result of lower supplies and trouble in Egypt. In the past week, Brent had climbed 7% to $108.51. Because too much oil was being produced for the infrastructure to handle it, West Texas Intermediate was lower than Brent for several years; it returned to being consistent with Brent.{{cite news|url=https://money.cnn.com/2013/07/10/news/economy/oil-prices/

On August 28 West Texas Intermediate reached $110.10, the highest since May 2011, and Brent reached $116.61, its highest point since February 19, due to concern about U.S. involvement in Syria. Meanwhile, inventories in the United States had their biggest increase in four months.{{cite news|url=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-29/wti-oil-drops-from-two-year-high-u-s-crude-stockpiles-advance.html

On November 13, Brent reached $107.12 and was $13.24 higher than West Texas Intermediate, the largest difference since April, due to trouble in Libya and sanctions against Iran.{{cite news|url= https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-13/brent-wti-crude-spread-gains-to-seven-month-high-on-libya.html

On December 27, due to a better economy in the United States leading to higher demand, oil closed about $100 for the first time since October. Gas was $3.27, two cents below a year earlier.{{cite news|url=http://www.newsobserver.com/2014/01/02/3500681/oil-prices-start-year-with-rise.html

2014–2016

Main article: 2014–2016 world oil market chronology

2014

Cold weather led to the price of oil staying above $100 for most of February, but lower prices were expected. With United States fourth quarter economic growth expected to be lower than an early estimate, Benchmark crude fell slightly on February 27 to $102.40, with Brent crude reaching $108.61.{{cite news|url=https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/oil-prices-stay-102-demand-expectations-22695229

Ukraine problems{{cite news|url=https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/oil-prices-asia-ahead-weekly-us-data-23232841

In June 2014 crude oil prices dropped by about a third as unconventional U.S. tight oil (shale oil) production increased and China and Europe's demand for oil decreased. In spite of huge global oversupply, on 27 November 2014 in Vienna, Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi blocked the appeals from the poorer OPEC member states, such as Venezuela, Iran and Algeria, for production cuts. Brent plunged to US$71.25, a four-year low. Al-Naimi argued that the market would be left to correct itself, this will put pressure on companies in the US to reduce shale fracturing operations. OPEC had a "long-standing policy of defending prices". OPEC was ready to let the Brent oil price drop to $60 to slow down US tight oil (shale oil) production. In spite of a troubled economy in member countries, al-Naimi repeated his statement on Saudi inaction on 10 December 2014. By the end of 2014, as the demand for global oil consumption continued to decline, the remarkably rapid oil output growth in ‘light, tight’ oil production in the North Dakota Bakken, the Permian and Eagle Ford Basins in Texas, while rejuvenating economic growth in "U.S. refining, petrochemical and associated transportation industries, rail & pipelines, destabilized international oil markets."

By December 12, both Brent and WTI reached their lowest prices since 2009; Brent dropped to $62.75 a barrel and WTI slid to $58.80 . Later in the month the price of oil was down 50% since April. Economic problems in Europe and Asia, high gas mileage, a strong dollar, higher U.S. production and no action by OPEC have been credited.{{cite news|url=https://money.cnn.com/2014/12/23/news/economy/lower-gas-price-streak/

2015

According to Bloomberg Business, the efficiency of newer tight oil (shale oil) wells that use hydraulic fracturing in the United States, combined with the US$12 million upfront well drilling and construction costs, provided incentives to oil producers to continue to flood the already glutted market with under-priced oil in spite of crude oil storage limitations. Many less efficient and less productive older wells were shut down but these tight oil (shale oil) wells continue to increase production while making a profit in a market where crude oil is priced as low as US$50 a barrel.

The publication of the monthly review by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries reported that oil production in the United States had peaked and would start to decline in the third quarter thereby easing the global glut of crude.

After oil reached a six-year low in March,{{cite news|url=https://www.wsj.com/articles/crude-oil-futures-lose-momentum-1438830721

On June 10, West Texas Intermediate reached $61.43, the highest price since December. Demand was expected to stay high, but OPEC production was also staying high. Brent was $65.70.{{cite news|url=http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-slip-on-strong-dollar-bullish-iea-report-2015-06-11 |access-date=June 12, 2015 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150612234403/http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2015/06/10/oil-prices-extend-gains/ |archive-date=June 12, 2015 |url-status=dead

Oil fell by about $10 in July as the U.S. dollar was strong, supplies were high, and the Chinese stock market was down. Near the end of the month, Brent crude reached $53.31, close to the lowest in six months, while U.S. crude, at $48.52, was close to a four-month low.{{cite news|url=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-markets-oil-idUSKCN0Q406C20150730

During August, Brent reached a low of $42.23 and U.S. crude was as low as $37.75.{{cite news|url=https://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/15/us-oil-prices-extend-gains-on-stock-draw.html |access-date=September 23, 2015 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150925073804/http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2015/09/03/crude-oil-prices-flat-as-equities-rally/ |archive-date=September 25, 2015 |url-status=dead

After an International Energy Agency prediction of high supplies for the next year, U.S. crude fell the most in a week in more than two months, ending October 15 below $47, and Brent crude had its biggest loss for a week in nearly two months, just under $50 on October 16.{{cite news|url=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-idUSKCN0SA05G20151016

On the first week of December Brent fell to $42.43 and U.S. crude slipped below $40 after OPEC first said it would increase production and then decided not to make changes. Other factors were a weak dollar and a strong Euro.{{cite news|url=https://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/03/us-crude-climbs-on-weaker-dollar-ahead-of-opec-meeting.html

On December 21, Brent fell as low as $36.35 a barrel; this was the lowest price since July 2004.{{cite news|url=https://www.wsj.com/articles/opec-report-suggests-oil-price-rebound-supply-cut-1450864802

2016

On January 6, 2016, the price of WTI crude hit another eleven-year low, as it dropped to $32.53 a barrel for the first time since 2009. On January 12, in its seventh losing day, crude oil dropped below $30 for the first time since December 2003.{{cite news|url=https://money.cnn.com/2016/01/12/investing/oil-prices-below-30/index.html?iid=EL

On June 7, Benchmark crude closed over $50 for the first time since July 21.{{cite news|title=Late sell-off leaves stocks barely higher/oil rises

Early in August, WTI fell to $41.52; oil prices had fallen more than 20% since June and were rising earlier in the week.{{cite news|url=https://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/04/oil-prices-dip-as-short-covering-rally-fizzles-out.html

A September 26 OPEC meeting{{cite news|url=https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/sep/24/oil-price-opec-members-meeting

Saudi Arabia began attempting to persuade other OPEC countries to participate in its plan. OPEC countries met November 30 and agreed to limit output for the first time since 2008. As a result, Brent crude went over $50, the highest in a month, while West Texas intermediate stopped just short of $50.{{cite news|url=http://mobile.reuters.com/article/GCA-Commodities/idUSKBN13G01Z

Brent reached $57.89 and U.S. crude reached $54.51 on December 12, both the highest since July 2015, after Russia and other countries not part of OPEC also agreed to limit production.{{cite news|url=https://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/11/oil-prices-soar-on-global-producer-deal-to-cut-crude-output.html

2017–2019

Main article: 2017–2019 world oil market chronology

2017

Despite the promises of lower output from other countries, no evidence of changes was seen. U.S. output was higher and oil continued to fall.{{cite news|url=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-idUSKBN14X04K

Crude inventories set a record so oil continued to fall through March, with WTI reaching just above $47 and Brent falling below $50.{{cite news|url=http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-fall-more-than-1-as-traders-fret-about-us-crude-stockpiles-2017-03-22

Brent rose 40% from June to October as oil producers were expected to continue lower production, with an increase of 20% in the third quarter, the most for the quarter since 2004, and reaching $59.49 during the final week of September. The increase would have been more but Turkey did not act on a threat to close a pipeline as a result of the Kurdistan vote for independence.{{cite news|url=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil/oil-prices-dip-on-profit-taking-and-u-s-production-fears-idUSKCN1C803F

2018

Both WTI and Brent crude began the year above $60 for the first time since 2014.{{cite news|url=https://www.reuters.com/article/global-oil/oil-marks-highest-january-opening-price-since-2014-idUSL4N1OX06I

WTI ended March at $64.94, up 5.6% for the month and 7.7% for the first quarter. Brent finished at $70.27 for an increase of 8.6% for the month and 6.3% for the quarter. Possible sanctions on Iran, OPEC's desire for higher prices, and lower production in Venezuela were reasons.{{cite news|url=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-set-to-fall-even-as-opec-reviews-further-strategies-to-boost-prices-2018-03-29

On April 11, with the United States planning a response to the Douma chemical attack in the Syrian Civil War, WTI ended the day at $66.82, with Brent at $72.04, both the highest since December 2014.{{cite news|url=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-rise-on-heightened-middle-east-tensions-2018-04-11

With OPEC's announcement that it would keep production low through the rest of 2018, WTI finished May 30 at $68.21. Brent finished at $77.50. The difference between WTI and Brent was increasing, possibly due to tight oil (shale oil).{{cite news|url=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-oil-rises-attempts-to-avoid-longest-skid-in-nearly-4-months-2018-05-30

WTI ended the first half of 2018 up about 23% to $74.15, the highest since November 2014, up 14% for the second quarter and 11% for the month. Brent crude was $79.44. Factors included threats to supplies from Libya and proposed sanctions on countries importing oil from Iran.{{cite news|url=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-trades-mixed-but-recent-rally-sets-crude-up-for-strong-2018-gains-2018-06-29

In November oil fell the most for any month in ten years. WTI finished at $50.93, up 1% for the week but down 22% for the month, while Brent was $58.71, down 12% for the year. Higher production in the U.S., Russia and some OPEC countries meant too much supply. Losses would have been higher except for speculation about OPEC cuts.{{cite news|url=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-slips-back-toward-50-ahead-of-looming-g-20-opec-production-talks-2018-11-30

For the week ending December 21, WTI fell 11.4% to $45.59, the lowest since July 2017, and Brent crude fell 10.7% to $53.82, the lowest since September 2017. Higher U.S. interest rates, more active U.S. oil rigs, higher U.S. crude production and lower expected worldwide demand did not cancel out proposed production cuts by OPEC nations, including definite plans by Saudi Arabia.{{cite news|url=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-sticks-near-17-month-lows-even-as-saudis-indicate-deeper-production-cut-2018-12-21

Brent finished 2018 down 20 percent.

2019

Oil finished January up 18.5 percent (the best ever with records going back as far as 1984) with WTI at $53.79 one day after its highest finish since November, and Brent up 15 percent for the month to $61.89; both gains were the most for a month since April 2016.{{cite news|url=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-stalls-at-2-month-highs-about-to-close-book-on-sharp-january-gain-2019-01-31

WTI rose 6.4 percent in February while Brent crude went up 6.7 percent. On March 1, WTI fell 2.5 percent to end the week at $55.80 while Brent crude fell 1.9 percent to $65.07. This was true even though OPEC output reached its lowest level in four years. U.S. economic reports indicated slower growth.{{cite news|url=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-linger-near-3-month-highs-as-crude-supply-appears-in-check-2019-03-01

The third week of April ended with WTI at $64 for its seventh gain for the first time since February 2014. Brent rose for the fourth week, ending at $71.97.{{cite news|url=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-slip-but-cling-to-nearly-5-month-highs-as-supply-clarity-awaited-2019-04-18

Trump's plans to raise tariffs of imports from China contributed{{cite news|url=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-slide-amid-increased-tensions-over-trade-middle-east-2019-05-06

WTI rose almost 9 percent for the week ending June 21, the most since December 2016, to $57.43, the highest finish for the month. Brent was up 5 percent to $65.20. Reasons for the jump included expectations of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates and Iran shooting down a drone.{{cite news|url=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gas-futures-surge-oil-gains-amid-reports-of-refinery-fire-and-ongoing-mideast-tension-2019-06-21|title=Oil logs 9% weekly rise — biggest since late 2016; refinery fire jolts gasoline futures

WTI fell 7.9 percent on August 1, the most in one day in four years, to $53.95, the lowest since June 19. The next day WTI finished the week down, in response to Trump's plans for more tariffs. Brent fell 7 percent on August 1 and also ended the week lower.{{cite news|url=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-resumes-steep-drop-as-us-china-trade-row-raises-demand-worries-2019-08-05|title=Oil resumes steep drop as U.S.-China trade row raises demand worries

On August 19, the difference between WTI and Brent was $3.53, the lowest since July 2018. At the start of the year it was twice that. More pipeline capacity was a reason. The China–United States trade war was not a factor. As of September 5 WTI was up 24 percent to $56.30 while Brent increased 13 percent to $60.95.{{cite news|url=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-us-crude-has-outpaced-gains-for-the-international-oil-benchmark-this-year-2019-09-06

As of November 25, Brent was up 19 percent for the year.{{cite news|url=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-slips-but-holds-near-2-month-high-as-looming-opec-meeting-expected-to-yield-deeper-cuts-2019-11-25

2020–2022

Main article: 2020–2022 world oil market chronology

2020

On February 10, oil reached its lowest level in over a year, with the COVID-19 pandemic a major reason. WTI fell 1.5 percent to $49.57, the lowest since January 2019, and Brent dropped 2.2 percent to $53.27, the lowest since December 2018. Russia had not agreed to further production cuts, though OPEC had a plan.{{cite news|url=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-edges-lower-as-coronavirus-takes-toll-on-china-crude-demand-2020-02-10

During the 2020 Russia–Saudi Arabia oil price war, on March 8 oil fell over 30 percent. WTI reached $31.13, down 24.6 percent, with Brent $34.36, down 24.1 percent. Both were the lowest since 2016 and the one-day decline was the largest since 1991.{{cite news|url=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-plunging-oil-prices-are-wreaking-havoc-across-financial-markets-right-now-2020-03-09?mod=home-page

In the first quarter, the percentage loss was the worst ever, 66.5 percent for WTI and 65.6 percent for Brent. Then on April 2, WTI jumped 24.7 percent to $25.32 and Brent rose 21 percent to $29.94, the biggest percentage increase in a single day ever, in anticipation of significant production cuts.{{cite news|url=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-surge-nearly-10-after-trump-says-russia-saudi-feud-can-be-resolved-2020-04-02

On July 15, after the largest drop in U.S. crude supplies of the year, WTI reached $41.20 and Brent $43.79, the highest since March 6 for both.{{cite news|url=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-jump-on-expectations-for-drawdown-in-us-crude-supplies-as-investors-keep-eye-on-opec-2020-07-15?mod=myra-p-saefong Bad news about U.S. unemployment, a strong dollar, lower expected demand, and higher U.S. crude supplies contributed to the second down week for WTI, which fell 6.1 percent to $37.33. Brent fell 6.6 percent for the week to $39.83. This was the first time oil fell for two straight weeks since April.{{cite news|url=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-head-for-second-weekly-fall-on-demand-worries-2020-09-11

As a result of U.S. President Donald Trump being diagnosed with COVID-19, WTI fell 4.3 percent on October 2 to finish the week down 8 percent at $37.05, the lowest since September 8. Brent dropped 4.1 percent and 7.4 percent for the week to $39.27, the lowest since June 12. Continued concerns about the pandemic reducing demand also contributed even as U.S. supplies fell.{{cite news|url=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-selloff-intensifies-after-trump-confirms-coronavirus-diagnosis-11601633152

WTI and Brent both reached their highest settlements since September on November 18, with WTI at $41.82 and Brent at $44.34. One major factor was good news about COVID-19 vaccines. U.S. crude inventories rose more than expected, and uncertainty about OPEC and COVID-19 lockdowns contributed to lower prices the next day.{{cite news|url=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-surges-on-vaccine-prospects-after-pfizer-says-candidate-is-95-effective-11605704841

WTI ended 2020 at $48.52, down 20.5 percent in its second down year in three years but up 7 percent for the month and more than 20 percent for the quarter. Brent finished at $51.80, down 21.5 percent for the year but up 8.9 percent for December and 26.5 percent for the quarter. A weak dollar and lower than expected U.S. inventories kept oil high.{{cite news|url=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-on-track-fall-of-more-than-20-for-2020-due-to-coronavirus-pandemic-11609419026

2021

WTI rose over 50 percent during the first half of 2021 and Brent jumped 45 percent, reaching their highest levels in two and a half years. In June alone WTI jumped more than 10 percent, with Brent up 8 percent. On July 2, WTI was at $74.28 and Brent was at $75.76. COVID-19 vaccines, easing of restrictions related to the pandemic, and production cuts by OPEC and allies were factors. As of September 10, Brent was up 41 percent for the year due to OPEC supply cuts and increased demand after the worst of the pandemic seemed to be over.{{cite news|url=https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-slips-chinas-plan-release-crude-reserves-airline-demand-woes-2021-09-10/

Brent reached $86.70, the highest since 2018, during October. WTI reached $85.41 on October 25, the highest in seven years, and fell 11.5 percent by November 19, still up 55 percent for the year.{{cite news|url=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/19/oil-falls-to-six-week-low-on-lockdown-concerns.html

WTI ended 2021 at $75.21, up 55.5 percent, while Brent finished at $77.78, up 50.5 percent. This was the biggest gain for the year since 2016.{{cite news|url=https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-heads-biggest-yearly-gains-since-2009-2021-12-31/

2022

As of February 3, WTI traded over $90 for the first time since October 2014, a week after Brent did the same. WTI was up 20 percent for the year.{{cite news|url=https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/03/us-oil-prices-top-90-a-barrel-for-the-first-time-since-2014.html

WTI ended the quarter up 34 percent with Brent up 38 percent, the most since second quarter 2020.{{cite news|url=https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-tumble-more-than-5-barrel-biden-weighs-massive-reserves-release-2022-03-31/

On May 8, Saudi Arabia cut oil prices for buyers in Asia, countering uncertainty around Russia's supplies. The state-controlled company dropped its key Arab Light crude grade for the next month's shipments to Asia to $4.40 a barrel above the benchmark it uses, from $9.35 in May. Also in May, Saudi Arabia lowered the price of its Arab Light crude grade to Europe for the month of June. The price of the Arab Light benchmark sold in the US in June remained the same, at $5.65 per barrel above the Argus Sour Crude Index. Meanwhile, Kuwait became the second-largest OPEC member to cut its prices for Asia, after Saudi Arabia.

In June, Brent peaked at $123 and gas was over $5 because of fears Russian oil would no longer be sold, but Russia continued to sell oil in Asia at low prices. Fear of a recession outweighed concerns over Russia, and by the time OPEC and other nations decided on a small cut in production on September 5, Brent was $96.50 and WTI $89.79. Gas was $3.82.{{cite news|url=https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-covid-health-economy-prices-89c2cf3eeecb02e9d01c3ed01e7d7506

2023–2025

Main article: 2023–2025 world oil market chronology

2023

As a result of the March 2023 United States bank failures, both indexes reached their lowest point since 2021. The first quarter ended with Brent at $79.89, down 5 percent for the month and for the first time since 2015, down for the third straight quarter. WTI finished down 2 percent for the month, at $75.67.{{cite news|url=https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-rises-china-factory-activity-expansion-lifts-demand-hopes-2023-03-31/

After six weeks of gains, WTI was up 20 percent to $82.82 on August 4, and Brent finished at $86.24, up 17 percent. Saudi Arabia agreed to continue production cuts, while Russia was reducing exports, while demand was expected to increase.{{cite news|url=https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-set-sixth-weekly-gain-producers-pledge-output-cuts-2023-08-04/

2024

Brent, finishing the quarter at $87.48, and WTI, which settled at $83.17, rose for each of the first three months of the year.{{cite news|url=https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-prices-advance-investors-reassess-us-inventories-data-2024-03-28/

In September Brent fell below $70 for the first time since December 2021. The next month U.S. production set a record. U.S. demand reached its highest level since the COVID-19 pandemic.

Brent ended 2024 down 3 percent, the second down year. Brent finished at $74.64 and WTI at $71.72, about even with where it started 2024. Demand stopped increasing, China had economic problems and oil producers increased the amount they sold. Also, Russia's invasion of Ukraine became less of a factor.{{cite news|url=https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-rises-expanding-chinese-factory-activity-set-end-year-lower-2024-12-31/

2025

Due to the inclusion of WTI Midland in the Brent index, Brent was more closely related to freight rates. The premium for Brent over WTI stayed below $4 during May. On June 6, the difference between WTI and Brent was $2.78, lowest since September 2023, due to OPEC and others increasing production while the U.S. oil rig count decreased and the 2025 Canadian wildfires interfered with supplies.{{cite news|url=https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/wti-brent-spread-narrowest-almost-two-years-us-prices-rise-2025-06-06/

U.S. production hit a record in October. Oil finished October down, with Brent at $65.07 and WTI reaching $60.98.{{cite news|url=https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-heads-third-monthly-decline-strong-dollar-ample-supply-weigh-2025-10-31/

Brent and WTI ended November down for the fourth month in a row. Brent ended at $63.20 and WTI at $58.55.{{cite news|url=https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/brent-little-changed-investors-zoom-russia-ukraine-talks-opec-2025-11-28/

Brent ended 2025 down 19 percent for the year to $60.85, the biggest drop since 2020. It was also the third straight down year, the longest streak ever. WTI ended the year down by about the same amount at $57.42. Too much oil after OPEC and others increased production, wars, sanctions on some oil-producing countries, and tariffs were major factors determining 2025 prices.{{cite news|url=https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-slips-brent-heads-longest-stretch-annual-losses-2025-2025-12-31/

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