True-believer syndrome

Psychology

In an article published in Skeptical Inquirer, psychologist Matthew J. Sharps and his colleagues analyzed and dissected the psychology of true believers and their behavior after the predicted apocalypse failed to happen. Using the 2012 Mayan apocalypse prophecy as an example, and citing several other similar cases, Sharps identified four psychological factors that compel these people to continue their belief (or even stronger belief) despite the conflicted reality.

• While not suffering from mental illness, people with subclinical dissociative tendencies have a higher inclination to experience disconnection with immediate physical reality and propensity to see highly improbable things with enhanced credulity. Such subclinical dissociation is usually associated with paranormal thinking.
• The more a belief is invested in, the more value will be placed in it and, as a consequence, result in the believer being more resistant to facts, evidence, or other aspects of reality that contradict it. Some members of a fringe group led by an individual pseudonymously known as Marian Keech had left their spouses and jobs and given up their possessions to prepare to board an alien spacecraft. When the world did not end, cognitive dissonance-reducing activity (belief disconfirmation response) provided an enhancement of their beliefs and an outlet for their heavy investment and discomfort in front of reality.
• In the continuum in human information processing, people with Gestalt processing will consider a concept without detailed analysis (as opposed to feature-intensive thinking) and accept the idea as a whole relatively uncritically. Sharps suggests a relationship between dissociative tendencies and gestalt processing. People who incline to believe paranormal activities will be more likely to credulously entertain the ancient Mayan prophecies whose details most people know little about.
• Under the mental shortcut of the availability heuristic, people place more importance and give more weight to a belief when examples related to the idea are more readily recalled, most often because they constitute recent information and are covered in the latest news reports. Information on Mayan prophecies has been abundantly available, especially in the media, before the expected apocalyptic date. People who have dissociative tendencies toward the supernatural and favor gestalt processing tend to bias their judgments toward the latest news.

Examples

M. Lamar Keene and "Raoul"

In his book The Psychic Mafia, Keene told of his partner, a psychic medium named "Raoul". Some in their congregation still believed that Raoul was genuine, even after Keene openly admitted that he was a fake. Keene wrote "I knew how easy it was to make people believe a lie, but I didn't expect the same people, confronted with the lie, would choose it over the truth. ... No amount of logic can shatter a faith consciously based on a lie."

José Alvarez and "Carlos"

According to The Skeptic's Dictionary, an example of this syndrome is evidenced by an event in 1988 when stage magician James Randi, at the request of an Australian news program, coached stage performer José Alvarez to pretend he was channelling a two-thousand-year-old spirit named "Carlos". Even after it was revealed to be a fictional character created by Randi and Alvarez, many people continued to believe that "Carlos" was real.

Marian Keech and "Clarion"

In the book When Prophecy Fails, Festinger and his colleagues observed a fringe group led by "Marian Keech" (researchers' pseudonym) who believed that the world would be destroyed on December 21, 1954, and the true believers would be rescued by aliens on a spaceship to a fictional planet, Clarion. When nothing happened, the group believed that their devotion convinced God to spare the world and they became even more feverish in proselytizing their belief. This is one of the first cases that led Festinger to form the theory of cognitive dissonance.

Harold Camping's 2011 end times prediction

Main article: 2011 end times prediction

American Christian radio host Harold Camping claimed that the Rapture and Judgment Day would take place on May 21, 2011, and that the end of the world would take place five months later on October 21, 2011, based on adding the 153 fish of John 20 to May 21. Camping, who was then president of the Family Radio Christian network, claimed the Bible as his source and said May 21 would be the date of the Rapture and the day of judgment "beyond the shadow of a doubt". Camping suggested that it would occur at 6 pm local time, with the Rapture sweeping the globe time zone by time zone, while some of his supporters claimed that around 200 million people (approximately 3% of the world's population) would be "raptured". Camping had previously claimed that the Rapture would occur in September 1994. Following the failure of the prediction, media attention shifted to the response from Camping and his followers. On May 23, Camping amended that May 21 had been a "spiritual" day of judgment, and that the physical Rapture would occur on October 21, 2011, simultaneously with the destruction of the universe by God. However, on October 16, Camping admitted to an interviewer that he did not know when the end would come.

References

Notes

Bibliography

• Keene, M. Lamar and Spraggett, Allen (1997) The Psychic Mafia, Prometheus Books,

References

1. Keene, Lamar M. (1976). ''The Psychic Mafia''. St. Martin's Press; New York
2. Keene and Spragett, p.151
3. Davis, W. Sumer. (2003). "Just Smoke and Mirrors: Religion, Fear and Superstition in Our Modern World". iUniverse.
4. "true believer syndrome". Skeptic's Dictionary.
5. (2014). "Remembrance of Apocalypse Past". Skeptical Inquirer.
6. (1973). "Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability". Cognitive Psychology.
7. Keene and god, pp.141–151
8. Randi commented: "no amount of evidence, no matter how good it is or how much there is of it, is ever going to convince the true believer to the contrary."ABC News (1998-10-06) "The Power of Belief: How Our Beliefs Can Impact Our Minds", ABC News (2007-06-04)
9. Festinger, Leon. (1956). "When Prophecy Fails: A Social and Psychological Study of a Modern Group that Predicted the Destruction of the World". University of Minnesota Press.
10. (May 11, 2011). "A Conversation With Harold Camping, Prophesier of Judgment Day". New York Magazine.
11. Goffard, Christopher. (May 21, 2011). "Harold Camping is at the heart of a mediapocalypse". Los Angeles Times.
12. (2011-03-08). "The Christ in Prophecy Journal: Harold Camping: End-Time Scenario". Lamblion.us.
13. (May 21, 1988). "May 21, 2011 – Judgment Day!; October 21, 2011 – The End of the World". Ebiblefellowship.com.
14. (January 23, 2011). "End of Days in May? Believers enter final stretch". NBC News.
15. Amira, Dan. (May 11, 2011). "A Conversation With Harold Camping, Prophesier of Judgment Day". [[New York (magazine).
16. "Scocca : Countdown to Armageddon: Maybe the World Will End Friday Night (or Sunday Morning)".
17. "Judgment Day". [[Family Radio]].
18. [https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/americas/radio-host-says-rapture-actually-coming-in-october/article2032209/ Radio host says Rapture actually coming in October] {{Webarchive. link. (2011-05-29 – ''Globe and Mail''. May 23, 2011. Retrieved May 23, 2011.)
19. (24 May 2011). "Rapture: Harold Camping issues new apocalypse date". BBC News.
20. (October 24, 2011). "Harold Camping Exclusive: Family Radio Founder Retires; Doomsday 'Prophet' No Longer Able to Work". The Christian Post.