Longevity escape velocity

Background

For many years in the past, life expectancy at each age has increased slightly every year as treatment strategies and technologies have improved. At present, more than one year of research is required for each additional year of expected life. Longevity escape velocity occurs when this ratio reverses, so that life expectancy increases faster than one year per one year of research, as long as that rate of advance is sustainable.

Mouse lifespan research has been the most contributive to conclusive evidence on the matter, since mice require only a few years before research results can be concluded.

History

The term "longevity escape velocity" was conceived of by futurist David Gobel of the Methuselah Foundation and coined by biogerontologist Aubrey de Grey in a 2004 paper, The concept is also part of the fictional history leading to multi-century youthful lifespans in the science fiction series The Mars Trilogy by Kim Stanley Robinson. More recent proponents include David Gobel, co-founder of the Methuselah Foundation and futurist, and technologist Ray Kurzweil, who named one of his books, Fantastic Voyage: Live Long Enough to Live Forever, after the concept. The last two claim that by putting further pressure on science and medicine to focus research on increasing limits of aging, rather than continuing along at its current pace, more lives will be saved in the future, even if the benefit is not immediately apparent.

The idea was further popularized with the publishing of Aubrey de Grey and Michael Rae's book, Ending Aging, in 2007. de Grey has also popularized the word "Methuselarity" which describes the same concept.

Predictions

Ray Kurzweil predicts that longevity escape velocity will be reached before humanity realizes it. In 2018, he predicted that it would be reached in 10–12 years, meaning that the milestone would occur around 2028–2030. In 2024, writing in The Economist, Kurzweil revised his prediction to 2029–2035 and explained how AI would help to simulate biological processes.

Aubrey de Grey has similarly predicted that humanity has a 50 percent chance of reaching longevity escape velocity in the mid-to-late 2030s.

When asked about reaching longevity escape velocity, the American geneticist George Church answered: "I wouldn't be surprised if 2050 would be a point."

The Australian geneticist David A. Sinclair believes that the first human who will live to 150 years has already been born.

References

References

1. Aubrey de Grey, [https://www.ted.com/talks/aubrey_de_grey_a_roadmap_to_end_aging A roadmap to end aging]. In: [[TED (conference). TEDGlobal 2005]].
2. (2008-03-25). "Actuarial Escape Velocity". The Futurist.
3. Palmer, Raymond D.. (December 12, 2022). "Three Tiers to biological escape velocity: The quest to outwit aging". Aging Medicine.
4. (28 November 2023). "Life Expectancy". Our World in Data.
5. (2004-06-15). "Escape velocity: why the prospect of extreme human life extension matters now". PLOS Biol.
6. Dibbell, Julian. (2006-10-23). "The Fast Supper". New York Magazine.
7. (November 1978). "Next Stop, Immortality". [[Future Life]].
8. Birnbaum, Ben. (2006). "Extension program". Boston College Magazine.
9. Diamandis, Peter H.. (2017-11-10). "3 Dangerous Ideas From Ray Kurzweil".
10. Koulopoulos, Thomas. (2018-01-19). "According to Peter Diamandis and Ray Kurzweil, These Are the Most Dangerous and Disruptive Ideas".
11. Kurzweil, Ray. (2024-06-17). "Ray Kurzweil on how AI will transform the physical world". The Economist.
12. [https://twitter.com/aubreydegrey/status/1371196809595346950?lang=en I now think there is a 50% chance that we will reach longevity escape velocity by 2036. After that point (the "Methuselarity"), those who regularly receive the latest rejuvenation therapies will never suffer from age-related ill-health at any age - Aubrey de Grey]
13. (9 April 2021). "Defeating Aging by 2036".
14. Patel, Dwarkesh. (2025-08-15). "George Church — A Billion Years of Evolution in a Single Afternoon".
15. Powell, Alvin. (2023-01-30). "Has the first person to live to be 150 been born?".