Hertsmere (UK Parliament constituency)

Constituency profile

Just beyond the northwestern boundary of Greater London and with fast railway links into the capital, Hertsmere is a Parliamentary constituency in the Home Counties. The constituency is in the London Commuter Belt, largely inside London's orbital motorway, the M25, and within the London green belt, in the South-West of Hertfordshire. Political consultancy Electoral Calculus classifies the constituency's population as broadly Conservative 'kind yuppies'. Hertsmere has the third-highest Jewish population of any UK Parliamentary constituency.

According to the census for England and Wales, the population of the Hertsmere local authority area (which presently corresponds to the area of the Parliamentary constituency) has increased by 7.8%, from around 100,000 in 2011 to 107,800 in 2021. This is higher than the overall increase for England (6.6%), where the population grew by nearly 3.5 million to 56,489,800, but slightly lower than the increase for the East of England region that Hertsmere belongs to (8.3%). The fastest growing age group in Hertsmere is the over-65s, which has increased since 2011 by 17.6%, close to the overall rate of growth for this age group in England (20.1%).

Parts of the constituency are among the most prosperous in Britain but 2015 data from the English Multiple deprivation index for the Borough of Hertsmere shows widely varying levels of deprivation, with overall deprivation levels – on a scale from 1 (the most deprived) to 32,844 (the least deprived) – ranging from 3,049 for Borehamwood Cowley Hill, the most deprived area in Hertfordshire and in the 10% most deprived nationally, to 32,695 for Bushey Heath, in the 1% least deprived.

The constituency of Hertsmere has returned a Conservative Member of Parliament at every general election since its creation and has been a safe seat almost throughout, with majorities ranging from 3,075 in 1997 (the election in which Labour won 418 Parliamentary seats, the largest number ever held by a single party) to 21,313 in 2019 (when the Conservative Party won 365 seats and a Parliamentary majority of 85). A close result for second place occurred in 2010, with only 661 votes separating the Labour Party and Liberal Democrat candidates.

In the history of the constituency the Liberal Democrat vote share has fallen substantially, from a quarter of the vote and second place ahead of Labour in 1983, to less than half that and third place in 2019. In 2015 the party fell to fourth place.

Boundaries and composition

1983–1997

• The Borough of Hertsmere; and
• The City of St Albans ward of London Colney.

The new county constituency was formed largely from the bulk of the abolished constituency of South Hertfordshire. It also included the area comprising the former Urban District of Bushey, transferred from South West Hertfordshire.

1997–2024

From 1997 to 2024 the constituency was coterminous with the borough of Hertsmere in southern Hertfordshire (before then it had also included the City of St Albans ward of London Colney, which was transferred to the St Albans constituency).

Following its review of parliamentary representation in Hertfordshire, the Boundary Commission recommended no changes to constituency boundaries for the 2010 general election. The seat contained these electoral wards:

• Aldenham East, Aldenham West, Borehamwood Brookmeadow, Borehamwood Cowley Hill, Borehamwood Hillside, Borehamwood Kenilworth, Bushey Heath, Bushey North, Bushey Park, Bushey St James, Elstree, Potters Bar Furzefield, Potters Bar Oakmere, Potters Bar Parkfield, Shenley.

Current

In 2021 the Boundary Commission for England, as part of the 2023 review of Westminster constituencies, published draft changes to constituency boundaries. On 8 November 2022, the final draft of the Boundary Commission's proposals was published, following consultation. The revised Hertsmere CC (County Constituency) was as proposed in the previous draft and became effective for the 2024 general election. Although the electorate of the constituency was within 5% of the new 'electoral quota' of 73,393, the commission proposed that changes be made to enable neighbouring constituencies to remain within the electoral range. The borough ward of Bushey North, previously in the Hertsmere constituency, joined the Watford constituency and the Welwyn Hatfield borough ward of Northaw and Cuffley, previously in the Broxbourne constituency, joined Hertsmere. The new Hertsmere constituency contains an electorate of approximately 73,256.

Hertsmere consists of the major towns and villages of Bushey, Radlett, Potters Bar and Borehamwood, elevated settlements above the headwaters of the River Colne which forms much of the northern border. Bushey borders Watford and the London Borough of Harrow to the west and south west, while Potters Bar borders Barnet and Broxbourne on the east. Borehamwood is just south-east of the centre, the largest town in the constituency — in the north and centre is Radlett, separated by two large villages and farms from St Albans to the north.

Members of Parliament

This safe Conservative constituency was created in 1983 from the former seat of South Hertfordshire. Cecil Parkinson, who had entered Parliament in 1970 and had previously represented South Hertfordshire, was MP from the seat's creation until his retirement in 1992. He was a close ally of Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher and had run her successful 1983 election campaign. Parkinson stepped down from government on the day of Thatcher's resignation as Conservative Party leader.

James Clappison held the seat for five electoral terms, from 1992 until his decision to stand down from parliament at the 2015 general election.

The seat was subsequently won by Oliver Dowden.

Elections

Elections in the 2020s

Elections in the 2010s

Elections in the 2000s

Elections in the 1990s

Elections in the 1980s

Notes

References

References

1. "'Hertsmere', June 1983 up to May 1997". Cognitive Computing Limited.
2. "Electoral Calculus".
3. "UK Polling Report".
4. (28 June 2022). "How the population changed in Hertsmere: Census 2021". UK Office of National Statistics.
5. (2015). "Hertsmere Indices of Multiple Deprivation 2015". Hertsmere Borough Council.
6. "The Parliamentary Constituencies (England) Order 1983".
7. "The Parliamentary Constituencies (England) Order 1995".
8. "2015 proposed map".
9. "The Parliamentary Constituencies (England) Order 2007".
10. "constituency map for proposed Hertsmere CC".
11. "Revised proposals for new Parliamentary constituency boundaries in the Eastern region".
12. "Boundary review 2023: Which seats will change?".
13. "The 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituency Boundaries in England – Volume two: Constituency names, designations and composition – Eastern {{!}} Boundary Commission for England".
14. Beattie, Jason. (25 January 2016). "Late Cecil Parkinson was a hero to Tories – but a missing dad to girl he wouldn't love". Daily Mirror.
15. (25 January 2015). "Obituary: Cecil Parkinson". [[BBC News]].
16. Ikonen, Charlotte. (3 July 2014). "Hertsmere MP James Clappison to stand down at next election". Watford Observer.
17. Rambhai, Jyoti. (8 May 2015). "Oliver Dowden retains Conservative seat in Hertsmere". Watford Observer.
18. {{Rayment-hc. h. 3. (March 2012)
19. (7 June 2024). "Notice of Poll and Statement of Persons Nominated". Hertsmere Borough Council.
20. "Hertsmere - General election results 2024". BBC News.
21. "Notional results for a UK general election on 12 December 2019". [[UK Parliament]].
22. "Hertsmere Parliamentary constituency". BBC News.
23. (9 June 2017). "Declaration of Result of Poll". Acting Returning Officer.
24. "Election Data 2015". [[Electoral Calculus]].
25. (9 April 2015). "Statement Of Persons Nominated And Notice Of Poll". Acting Returning Officer.
26. "UK ELECTION RESULTS: Hertsmere 2015".
27. "Election Data 2010". [[Electoral Calculus]].
28. "Election Data 2005". [[Electoral Calculus]].
29. "Election Data 2001". [[Electoral Calculus]].
30. "Election Data 1997". [[Electoral Calculus]].
31. "Election Data 1992". [[Electoral Calculus]].
32. (9 April 1992). "UK General Election results April 1992". Politics Resources.
33. "Election Data 1987". [[Electoral Calculus]].
34. "Election Data 1983". [[Electoral Calculus]].