Electoral district of Prahran

Overview

Prahran has tended to be a marginal seat throughout its existence, repeatedly changing between the Labor Party and its successive conservative rivals. It has not, however, been a bellwether seat, as the changes of party control have often not coincided with changes of government. In the 1980s and 1990s, the electorate became gradually more conservative as a result of increasing gentrification in the inner suburbs, resulting in seventeen years of Liberal control from 1985 until 2002. This trend was broken in the 2002 election, which saw popular local member and shadow minister Leonie Burke defeated by Labor rising star Tony Lupton on an unexpectedly large swing, coinciding with Labor’s massive win that year. The seat has since become increasingly progressive, having been won by either Labor or the Greens in five out of the last six elections while the Liberal Party's primary vote has declined from slightly above the state average to significantly below the state average.

The seat was strongly targeted by the Liberal Party during the 2006 election, with high-profile barrister Clem Newton-Brown narrowly preselected as their candidate after a tight contest. Though Newton-Brown ran a thorough campaign, he was not successful. Following his success in the 2006 election, Tony Lupton was promoted to the position of Parliamentary Secretary for Industry and Innovation. Newton-Brown stood again at the 2010 election and was this time successful. He re-contested the 2014 election but lost to Sam Hibbins of the Greens. Along with the seat of Melbourne it was the first win for the Greens in the Victorian Legislative Assembly.

Hibbins increased his two-candidate-preferred margin to 7.5% at the 2018 election, but only narrowly defeated Labor by 262 votes in the 3-candidate-preferred count. At the 2022 election, a large swing to the Greens saw them take first place on primary votes before comfortably defeating the Liberal Party on a 2-candidate-preferred basis, retaining the seat for a third term with an increased margin of 12%.

Hibbins resigned from the Greens and briefly sat as an independent crossbencher after having an extramarital affair with a staffer. Hibbins subsequently resigned from parliament and a by-election ensued which was a race between the Greens and Liberals, with Labor not contesting. Tony Lupton contested as an Independent. The by-election was won narrowly by the Liberals' Rachel Westaway with a swing of 13.4% to the Liberals, the seat returning to conservative hands for the first time since 2014. This was due to numerous factors such as Lupton directing preferences to the Liberals, low voter turnout and John Pesutto's leadership of the Liberals. The seat is currently the third most marginal Liberal held seat in the state.

Members for Prahran

Election results

Main article: Electoral results for the district of Prahran

References

References

1. (2 July 1945). "DEATH OF CR. ELLIS, PRAHRAN'S M.L.A.". The Herald.
2. (17 November 1948). "DEATH OF MR QUIRK, MLA". The Argus.
3. (2 December 2002). "It's David v. Goliath for the vanquished". The Age.
4. (5 December 2002). "Prime Minister's party reduced to a rump in Australian state election". World Socialist Web Site.
5. (28 November 2010). "Baillieu edges closer to victory". Neos Kosmos.
6. (10 December 2014). "Victorian Greens claim Prahran, winning historic second seat in parliament". The Guardian.
7. (1 November 2024). "Victorian Greens leader says MP will 'never be welcomed back' after relationship with staffer that breached party rules". The Guardian.
8. (23 November 2024). "Prahran MP Sam Hibbins announces he is quitting parliament". ABC News.