Conflict continuum

Overview

By the decade of the 2010s, military planners realized that additional capabilities in communications, sensors, and weapons countermeasures made it possible for competitors to react to a contestant's moves in the "gray zone" just short of conflict. In 2018, Kelly McCoy identified a continuum within competition itself, as explored in the United States Joint Staff's Joint Concept for Integrated Campaigning (JCIC), up to the point just short of armed conflict, while noting Perkins' connection to deterrence in the continuum. In 2020, Donald Stoker and Craig Whiteside cautioned that for strategists, the "gray zone" must not blur peace and war; they offered an analysis of the need for strategists to clearly distinguish peace, competition, contest, conflict, and war.

StandoffStandoff is the condition of deadlock between antagonists, sometimes measured by the distance between them (standoff distance). For n antagonists in a non-zero sum game, von Neumann and Morgenstern showed in 1944{{efn|name= thyGames1944|1= von Neumann and Morgenstern (1944) Theory of Games and Economic Behavior

OvermatchOvermatch is the condition where protagonist A is able to present multiple dilemmas If A's power can remain leashed (potential rather than kinetic){{efn|name= kineticShutsDownPotential|1= In light of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine US Defense Secretary 'Austin pointed to early failures by Russia, including almost immediate struggles with logistics, and difficulties getting food, water and supplies to troops'.Lolita Baldor (3 May 2022) Defense leaders say Russia learning from mistakes in Ukraine:

• "As we saw things unfold on the ground, we saw them not able to support themselves logistically, we saw them make some bad assumptions at the beginning of this, we saw them fail to integrate aerial fires with their ground maneuver, and just a number of missteps", Secretary Austin said. "I attribute a lot of that to lack of leadership at the lower level".}} then soft power and hard power are also optional possibilities on a continuum of possible conflict between A and the Es.

Various continuum models

Elise Boulding's conflict continuum

Elise M. Boulding was a Quaker sociologist influenced by the events of World War II. Examining how war becomes peace, she posited a continuum between wars of extermination and transformation.

This is Boulding's conflict continuum: ::{| |-

Andra Medea's types of conflict

Theorist Andra Medea seeks to explain how individuals, small groups, organizations, families, ethnicities, and even whole nations function when disputes arise between them. She posits that there are four types or levels of conflict, each operating under distinct rules: ::{| |- | (1) Problem Solving ||
| (2) Domination ||
| (3) Blind Behavior ||
| (4) Rogue Messiah |} Each level moving from first to fourth is characterized by increasing degrees of separation from reality, and decreasing degrees of maturity, in this context, defined as the ability to control anger and settle differences without violence or destruction. Problem-solving behavior is based in reality and maturity, and is therefore more rational and mature than domination. Domination is more rational and mature than blind behavior, which is more rational and mature than the Rogue Messiah.

However, each level moving from fourth to first is more capable than the one below it at forcing victory in a conflict. The rogue messiah overpowers blind behavior, blind behavior thwarts domination, and domination deadlocks problem-solving.

Perkins' continuum of conflict

Before 2017, winning a conflict was seen as the objective of the US Army. By 2018, the US Air Force showed it is important to reformulate this strategy, as part of a larger process of multi-domain operations (MDO), which involve more than an army in a theater of war (World War II and Cold War model). Specifically, MDO can offer options short of war, which can defuse armed conflict from total war into deterrence, compromise, or cooperation between competitors.

Multi-domain operations occur as overlapped, integrated operation of cyberspace, space (including satellite operations), land, maritime, and air. A multi-domain task force was set up in 2018 in I Corps for the Pacific. Multi-domain battalions, which first stood up in 2019, comprise a single unit for air, land, space, and cyber domains.

The MDO model recognizes that near-peer competitors might not actually seek conflict with each other, but perhaps merely a near-term advantage in order to buy time for themselves in the face of overmatch. For example, the X-37B space plane can change its orbit; this capability has military applications.The X-37B space plane can change its orbit:

• David, Leonard (28 Jun 2022) US military's mysterious X-37B space plane zooms toward orbital record
• On July 15, 2020, Cosmos 2543 emitted a kinetic vehicle, which emitted a tertiary object. This maneuver is interpreted as a test of anti-satellite capability. Cosmos 2542 has been tailing USA-245, a KH-11. Other multi-domain operations short of war, but still escalating the conflict, might include the shooting-down of military drones. By May 2023, a robotic Chinese space plane (similar to the X-37B) in orbit from October 2022 to May 2023 had successfully released, and then recaptured an orbiting object. In August 2023, USSF Space Systems Command and the NRO revealed countermeasures to China's maneuverable space vehicles that are in geosynchronous orbit.Emma Poole (31 Aug 2023) The US Satellite Intelligence Agency is not so silent about the new "Silent Barker" mission is NRO's GSSAP maneuverable replacement, will keep custody of tracked vehicles.
• Theresa Hitchens (31 Aug 2023) SilentBarker 'watchdog' to be 'exponential' leap in DoD monitoring of Chinese, Russian sats in geosynchronous orbits

Other operations short of war in 2018 include undeclared conflicts, involving proxy military units funded by oligarchs, but specifically disclaimed by near-peer competitors. This is in direct response to the strategy which the US has promulgated since 1949.

Destruction of infrastructure such as fuel pipelines, the energy grid,A probe of the grid was detected by Department of Energy, as reported in April 2019:

• More detail on the cyber attack was reported by North American Electric Reliability Corporation 9 July 2019. or the GPS network, or the financial markets, or confidence in national law and order may be goals for partners, competitors, or adversaries, depending on where they might be in the continuum of conflict.BBC Directed energy attacks on US embassies, and even the White House are cropping up, as reported in April 2021.Katie Bo Williams and Jeremy Herb [Apr 2021) US investigating possible mysterious directed energy attack near White House](https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/29/politics/us-investigating-mysterious-directed-energy-attack-white-house/index.html(29)
• See Havana syndrome —Conor Finnegan and Ben Gittleson (May 7, 2021) White House acknowledges mysterious health attacks occurred in US, reviewing intel on incidents

Control of the narrativeConflicts of belief, and conflicts of their underlying narratives can lead to social disorder, sometimes resulting in depression or suicide. Thus, disinformation could be a tactic in the spectrum of conflict.Davey Alba and Adam Satariano (26 September 2019) At Least 70 Countries Have Had Disinformation Campaigns, Study Finds"the number of countries with political disinformation campaigns more than doubled to 70 in the last two years"—The New York Times

• Nataliya Vasilyeva (11 Apr 2022) Russian spy chief 'thrown in jail' as Vladimir Putin 'turns on security officials 150 FSB (successor to KGB) officers have been dismissed

Competition continuum

In 2021, the 40th Chief of Staff of the United States Army identified three dimensions of military competition: 1) narrative, 2) direct (zero-sum), and 3) indirect (non-zero sum) competition.

If an adversary persists in direct competition, the protagonist simply continues to advance with direct competition, thereby gaining leverage over the adversary. The protagonist might find it possible only to impede the adversary; in this case, allies and partners may interoperate against the adversary for mutual advantage with the protagonist.

If rivals or adversaries persist in indirect competition, the protagonists seek advantage over them by building relationships with cooperating allies, partners, neutral parties, or observers; in addition, the protagonists keep a forward presence in the theater; the protagonists also must keep their capabilities relevant, competitive, and current. Cost becomes a factor, as adversaries learn by simply trying to keep up. Eventually indirect competition could stabilize; however, the 40th Chief of Staff notes competition is an infinite game.

Notes

Footnotes

References

References

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2. [[peace]],A state of [[Nash equilibrium]]
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17. display]] or [[power projection
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67. [[Sun Tzu]] ''[[The Art of War#English. The Art of War]]'', [https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/sun-tzu-espionage-or-how-i-learned-stop-worrying-and-love-double-agent Chapter XIII, Commentary on Sun-Tzu's text in ''Small Wars Journal'']. ''See also the Lionel Giles translation, 1910 [https://man.fas.org/artofwar.htm#13 XIII. THE USE OF SPIES]''
68. Narrative competition shapes and frames a baseline within which direct, or indirect competition with adversaries are related. In progressive stages of the narrative, allies, partners, neutral parties, observers, and rivals are encouraged to cooperate with the [[protagonist]]. Alternatively, adversaries are deterred from military conflict against the protagonist.[https://api.army.mil/e2/c/downloads/2021/03/29/bf6c30e6/csa-paper-2-the-army-in-military-competition.pdf Chief of Staff paper #2 (1 March 2021) The Army in Military Competition]