Brecon and Radnorshire (UK Parliament constituency)

Boundaries

The boundaries of the constituency corresponded broadly with the ancient counties of Brecknockshire and Radnorshire. Radnorshire is included in full, and the only significantly populated area from Brecknockshire not in this constituency is Brynmawr, which is in Blaenau Gwent. This is the largest constituency in England and Wales by area. No town in the constituency exceeds a population of 10,000, the largest being Ystradgynlais at roughly 9,000. Other towns in the constituency were Brecon, Knighton, Crickhowell and Llandrindod Wells. The remainder of the constituency is largely made up of small villages and land used for farming sheep: sheep outnumber humans in Powys as a whole by around ten to one.

Under planned constituency changes announced in September 2016 ahead of the next general election, it was proposed to merge this seat with the southern half of Montgomeryshire, including Newtown, to form a new constituency called Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery.

History

The constituency was created in the boundary changes of 1918 by merging Breconshire and Radnorshire, both previously constituencies in their own right. As part of the third periodic review of Westminster constituencies there were changes to the boundaries in 1983, when the constituency lost several small areas in the south. While historically having been held by the Labour Party for forty years, the constituency was captured from the Conservative government by the SDP–Liberal Alliance at a dramatic by-election in 1985. It was regained by the Conservatives in 1992, taken back by the Liberal Democrats in 1997, and then returned to the Conservatives in 2015. It was the Conservatives' fifteenth target seat at the 2005 election, but the party's share of the vote fell, leaving it as the Conservatives' 95th target seat in 2010, requiring a swing of 5.09%. In the event, the swing to the Conservatives was 0.3%, and the Liberal Democrats retained the seat, with Roger Williams remaining the MP. In 2015 the seat was reclaimed for the Conservatives by Chris Davies, whose majority of 5,102 was the largest in the constituency since Tom Hooson won the seat, also for the Conservatives, in 1983. Roger Williams stood for the Liberal Democrats in 2015 but shed over 6,500 votes from his 2010 result, a loss of 17.8%.

In 2019, Davies pleaded guilty to filing false expenses claims, triggering a recall petition, the third such petition in the UK. The petition was successful, forcing Davies to vacate the seat. A by-election was held on 1 August, which was won by Liberal Democrat candidate Jane Dodds. Dodds was then defeated by Conservative Fay Jones at the general election in December 2019.

Members of Parliament

Elections

Elections in the 1910s

|reg. electors = 37,771

Elections in the 1920s

|reg. electors = 38,815

|reg. electors = 39,750

|reg. electors = 39,943

|reg. electors = 49,031

Elections in the 1930s

|reg. electors = 49,199

|reg. electors = 49,827

|reg. electors = 48,486

Elections in the 1940s

General Election 1939–40:

Another general election was required to take place before the end of 1940. The political parties had been making preparations for an election to take place from 1939 and by the end of this year, the following candidates had been selected;

• Labour: William Jackson

|reg. electors = 52,689

Elections in the 1950s

|reg. electors = 51,951

|reg. electors = 52,728

|reg. electors = 51,969

|reg. electors = 51,357

Elections in the 1960s

|reg. electors = 50,159

|reg. electors = 49,464

Elections in the 1970s

|reg. electors = 52,694

|reg. electors = 53,857

|reg. electors = 54,300

|reg. electors = 56,975

Elections in the 1980s

|reg. electors = 47,277

|reg. electors = 48,371

|reg. electors = 49,394

Elections in the 1990s

|reg. electors = 51,509

|reg. electors = 52,142 The Labour candidate, Chris Mann, won the selection over future AMs Carwyn Jones and Jeffrey Cuthbert, and future AM and MP Peter Law.

Elections in the 2000s

|reg. electors = 53,247

|reg. electors = 55,171

Elections in the 2010s

|reg. electors = 53,589

|reg. electors = 54,441

|reg. electors = 56,010

Following the successful recall petition of Christopher Davies, a by-election was held on 1 August 2019. |reg. electors = Of the 73 rejected ballots:

• 58 were either unmarked or it was uncertain who the vote was for.
• 14 voted for more than one candidate.
• 1 had writing or mark by which the voter could be identified.

Changes in vote share are compared to the 2017 general election, not the 2019 by-election.

|reg. electors = 55,490 Of the 110 rejected ballots:

• 87 were either unmarked or it was uncertain who the vote was for.
• 21 voted for more than one candidate.
• 2 had writing or mark by which the voter could be identified.

Notes

References

References

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2. (25 April 2019). "Public notice of petition to remove the MP for Brecon and Radnorshire Chris Davies". Powys County Council.
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5. (13 June 2002). "Jubilee tour diary: Powys picnic". [[BBC News]].
6. (13 September 2016). "A radical shake-up of the constituency". Shropshire Star.
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28. "Election Data 2005". Electoral Calculus.
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32. "Election Data 2015". Electoral Calculus.
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41. (14 November 2019). "Statement of Persons Nominated".
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43. "Election-Results/General-Election-2019".