Blue chip (sports)

Blue-chip ratio in college football

In college football, "Blue-Chip Ratio" (BCR) is the ratio of blue chips to non-blue chips a team signs over the previous four recruiting classes. Put more simply, it is the percentage of four-star and five-star players on a team. The concept was invented in 2013 by recruiting analyst Bud Elliott, who also posits that teams need to have a Blue-Chip Ratio of at least 50% to be able to win a national championship.

Blue-Chip Ratio is a widely recognized metric in the sport; it has been referenced by all major broadcast networks and is closely monitored by head coaches and administrators. It has also been covered and referenced by many other sports journalists.

Busting the blue-chip ratio

2025 Indiana won the national championship, despite having a Blue-Chip Ratio of around 8%. 2010 Auburn also possibly did not meet the ratio, or just barely did. Elliott has acknowledged that "standards are made to be broken."

Although the expanded College Football Playoff allows greater access to the playoff for less talented teams, the expansion also requires those less talented teams to win three or even four difficult games to win the national championship, possibly making it even more difficult for them to bust the ratio.

Elliott has cited 2014 Oregon, 2015 Clemson, 2021 Cincinnati, 2022 TCU, and 2023 Florida State as other examples of teams that came close to winning the national championship despite having a BCR less than 50%.

Transfers

Elliott does not include transfers in his calculations. Even with the transfer portal and the removal of transfer limitations in the early 2020s, national champions have not relied on outside players thus far. 2021 Georgia and 2022 Georgia made either few or no additions through the use of the portal. 2023 Michigan had nine transfers, regarded as important on the team, but most of the team was still recruited out of high school. The majority of transfers are used to fill holes in a roster, rather than adding talent. Most elite players are recruited out of high school and remain at the school with which they signed.

An analysis in 2023 showed that almost every top team's Blue-Chip Ratio decreased when including transfers.

Blue-chip ratio by year

The following are lists of all the teams that had a BCR of 50% or higher in recent seasons. Many Blue-Chip Ratios prior to 2014 are unreliable or unavailable, due to a lack of articles listing them, errors or discrepancies in older recruiting rankings, etc. Elliott has listed Blue-Chip Ratios of several national champions before 2014, but not non-champions. Teams that won the national championship are highlighted in bold.

2005

• Texas – 64%

2006

• Florida – 61%

2007

• LSU – 64%

2008

• Florida – 72%

2010

• Auburn – 50%

2011

• Alabama – 71%

2012

• Alabama – 71%

2013

• Florida State – 53%

2014

• Alabama – 73%
• Ohio State – 68%
• USC – 64%
• Notre Dame – 63%
• LSU – 62%
• Texas – 60%
• Florida State – 56%
• Michigan – 55%
• Florida – 54%
• Auburn – 53%
• Georgia – 51%

2015

Twelve teams had a BCR of 50% or higher during the 2015 season.

• Alabama – 77%
• USC – 70%
• Ohio State – 68%
• Notre Dame – 67%
• LSU – 61%
• Florida State – 60%
• Michigan – 59%
• Auburn – 56%
• Texas – 55%
• Texas A&M – 54%
• UCLA – 53%
• Georgia – 51%

2016

• Alabama – 77%
• USC – 70%
• Ohio State – 70%
• LSU – 66%
• Notre Dame – 63%
• Florida State – 60%
• Michigan – 59%
• Auburn – 57%
• UCLA – 55%
• Texas A&M – 53%
• Georgia – 52%
• Clemson – 52%
• Texas – 50%

2017

Ten teams had a BCR of 50% or higher during the 2017 season.

• Alabama – 80%
• Ohio State – 71%
• LSU – 65%
• Florida State – 65%
• Georgia – 63%
• USC – 63%
• Michigan – 61%
• Auburn – 59%
• Clemson – 56%
• Notre Dame – 56%

2018

Thirteen teams had a BCR of 50% or higher during the 2018 season.

• Alabama – 77%
• Ohio State – 76%
• USC – 71%
• Georgia – 69%
• Florida State – 67%
• LSU – 63%
• Auburn – 62%
• Clemson – 61%
• Michigan – 57%
• Texas – 55%
• Oklahoma – 53%
• Penn State – 53%
• Notre Dame – 51%

2019

• Ohio State – 81%
• Alabama – 80%
• Georgia – 79%
• LSU – 64%
• Florida State – 61%
• Clemson – 60%
• USC – 60%
• Penn State – 60%
• Michigan – 60%
• Texas – 60%
• Oklahoma – 60%
• Auburn – 58%
• Washington – 54%
• Notre Dame – 54%
• Florida – 53%
• Miami – 51%

2020

Fifteen teams had a BCR of 50% or higher during the 2020 season.

• Alabama – 83%
• Georgia – 82%
• Ohio State – 80%
• Texas – 64%
• LSU – 63%
• Oklahoma – 63%
• Clemson – 63%
• Florida – 63%
• Michigan – 59%
• Auburn – 59%
• Penn State – 59%
• Notre Dame – 56%
• Washington – 54%
• USC – 50%
• Texas A&M – 50%

2021

• Alabama – 84%
• Georgia – 80%
• Ohio State – 79%
• Clemson – 67%
• LSU – 66%
• Oklahoma – 66%
• Texas – 66%
• Florida – 66%
• Texas A&M – 61%
• Michigan – 58%
• Auburn – 56%
• Oregon – 56%
• Penn State – 56%
• Notre Dame – 55%
• Miami – 55%
• USC – 53%

2022

Fifteen teams had a BCR of 50% or higher during the 2022 season.

• Alabama – 89%
• Ohio State – 80%
• Georgia – 77%
• Oklahoma – 71%
• Texas A&M – 70%
• Texas – 68%
• LSU – 66%
• Clemson – 63%
• Notre Dame – 62%
• Florida – 60%
• Oregon – 60%
• Michigan – 59%
• Penn State – 55%
• Miami – 55%
• Auburn – 54%

2023

• Alabama – 90%
• Ohio State – 85%
• Georgia – 77%
• Texas A&M – 73%
• Clemson – 72%
• LSU – 71%
• Texas – 70%
• Oklahoma – 70%
• Oregon – 67%
• Notre Dame – 65%
• Florida – 64%
• Miami – 61%
• Penn State – 55%
• Michigan – 54%
• USC – 52%
• Auburn – 51%

2024

Sixteen teams had a BCR of 50% or higher during the 2024 season.

• Ohio State – 90%
• Alabama – 88%
• Georgia – 80%
• Texas A&M – 79%
• Oregon – 76%
• Oklahoma – 73%
• Texas – 72%
• LSU – 70%
• Notre Dame – 67%
• Clemson – 64%
• Florida – 63%
• Miami – 61%
• Penn State – 61%
• USC – 59%
• Michigan – 56%
• Auburn – 53%

2025

Eighteen teams had a BCR of 50% or higher during the 2025 season. However, Indiana won the national championship.

• Alabama – 89%
• Ohio State – 89%
• Georgia – 84%
• Texas A&M – 82%
• Oregon – 78%
• Texas – 78%
• LSU – 73%
• Notre Dame – 73%
• Oklahoma – 70%
• Penn State – 68%
• Miami – 64%
• Florida – 64%
• Auburn – 64%
• Michigan – 57%
• USC – 57%
• Clemson – 55%
• Tennessee – 54%
• Florida State – 54%

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