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(367789) 2011 AG5

Near-Earth asteroid in 2040

Summary

Near-Earth asteroid in 2040

Field	Value
minorplanet	yes
name
background	#FFC2E0
image	2011 AG5 Goldstone radar 2023-02-04 anim.gif
caption	Animation of rotating in radar images by the Goldstone Solar System Radar on 4 February 2023
discovery_ref
discoverer	Mount Lemmon Srvy.
discovery_site	Mount Lemon Obs.
discovered	8 January 2011
mpc_name
alt_names
named_after
mp_category	ApolloNEOPHA
orbit_ref
epoch	2023-Feb-25 (JD 2460000.5)
uncertainty	0
observation_arc	14.2 yr (5,201 days)
earliest_precovery_date	3 October 2008
aphelion	1.978 AU
perihelion	0.87066 AU
time_periastron	2023-Mar-17
semimajor	1.424 AU
eccentricity	0.3887
period	1.7 yr (620.9 days)
mean_anomaly	348.2°
mean_motion	/ day
inclination	3.6946°
asc_node	135.6°
arg_peri	54.02°
moid	0.00038 AU
dimensions
mass	(assumed)
abs_magnitude	21.9

****, provisional designation , is a sub-kilometer asteroid, classified as near-Earth object and potentially hazardous asteroid of the Apollo group. It has a diameter of about 140 m. It was removed from the Sentry Risk Table on 21 December 2012 and as such it now has a rating of 0 on the Torino Scale. It was recovered in December 2022 extending the observation arc from 4.8 years to 14 years. As of 2023, the distance between the orbits of Earth and is 0.0004 AU

Date	JPL Horizons
nominal geocentric
distance (AU)	uncertainty
region
(3-sigma)
2023-Feb-03 08:51 ± 00:01	0.01215 AU	±
2040-Feb-04 08:29 ± 00:06	0.00725 AU	±

Description

5}} (green) passing the Earth-Moon system in February 2040 (orbital solution from 2011)

was discovered on 8 January 2011 by the Mount Lemmon Survey at an apparent magnitude of 19.6 using a 1.52 m reflecting telescope. Pan-STARRS precovery images from 8 November 2010 extended the observation arc to 317 days. Observations by the Gemini 8.2 m telescope at Mauna Kea recovered the asteroid on 20, 21 and 27 October 2012, and extended the observation arc to 719 days.

The October 2012 observations reduced the orbit uncertainties by more than a factor of 60, meaning that the Earth's position in February 2040 no longer falls within the range of possible future paths for the asteroid. On 4 February 2040 the asteroid will pass no closer than 0.007 AU (~2.8 LD) from Earth. Until 21 December 2012 it was listed on the Sentry Risk Table with a rating on the Torino Scale of Level 1. A Torino rating of 1 is a routine discovery in which a pass near the Earth is predicted that poses no unusual level of danger. It is estimated that an impact would produce the equivalent of 100 megatons of TNT, roughly twice that of the most powerful nuclear weapon ever detonated (Tsar Bomba). This is powerful enough to damage a region at least a hundred miles wide.

Older risks

Virtual clones of the asteroid that fit the mid-2012 uncertainty region in the known trajectory showed four potential impacts between 2040 and 2047. It had a 1 in 500 chance of impacting the Earth on 5 February 2040. In September 2013, there was an opportunity to make additional observations of when it came within 0.98 AU of Earth. The 2013 observations allowed a further refinement to the known trajectory. The asteroid will also pass 0.0121 AU from the Earth on 3 February 2023. The 2023 gravitational keyhole was 227 miles (365 kilometers) wide. With a Palermo scale rating of -1.00, the odds of impact by were about 10 times less than the background hazard level of Earth impacts which is defined as the average risk posed by objects of the same size or larger over the years until the date of the potential impact.

References

|archive-url=https://archive.today/20221024145712/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/tools/sbdb_lookup.html%23/?sstr=367789&view=OPC |archive-date=2022-10-24 |url-status=live

|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130108122117/http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/removed.html |url-status=dead |archive-date=2013-01-08

|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121231004831/http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news176.html |url-status=dead |archive-date=31 December 2012

|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20041230031246/http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/torino_scale1.html |url-status=dead |archive-date=30 December 2004

|url-status=dead

|archive-date=16 April 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210416083943/https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.cfm?release=2012-051 |url-status=dead

|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20020321092747/http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/doc/palermo.html |url-status=dead |archive-date=21 March 2002

|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20221024142219/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272011+AG5%27&START_TIME=%272023-02-03%2008:50%27&STOP_TIME=%272023-02-04%27&STEP_SIZE=%271%20day%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27 |archive-date=2022-10-24 |url-status=live

|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20221024141438/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%25272011+AG5%2527&START_TIME=%25272040-02-04%252008:49%2527&STOP_TIME=%25272040-02-05%2527&STEP_SIZE=%25271%2520day%2527&QUANTITIES=%252720,39%252 |archive-date=2022-10-24 |url-status=live

References

Math: 10^1.00 = 10

Wikipedia Source

This article was imported from Wikipedia and is available under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 License. Content has been adapted to SurfDoc format. Original contributors can be found on the article history page.

apollo-asteroids discoveries-by-mls potentially-hazardous-asteroids near-earth-objects-removed-from-the-sentry-risk-table near-earth-objects-in-2011 near-earth-objects-in-2023 astronomical-objects-discovered-in-2011

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