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2028 Bavarian state election
German state election
German state election
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| election_name | Next Bavarian state election |
| country | Bavaria |
| type | parliamentary |
| ongoing | yes |
| previous_election | 2023 Bavarian state election |
| previous_year | 2023 |
| election_date | |
| seats_for_election | All 180 seats in the Landtag of Bavaria (including any overhang and leveling seats) |
| majority_seats | 91 |
| party1 | Christian Social Union in Bavaria |
| last_election1 | 85 seats, 37.0% |
| party2 | Free Voters of Bavaria |
| last_election2 | 37 seats, 15.8% |
| party3 | Alternative for Germany |
| last_election3 | 32 seats, 14.6% |
| party4 | Alliance 90/The Greens |
| last_election4 | 32 seats, 14.4% |
| party5 | Social Democratic Party of Germany |
| last_election5 | 17 seats, 8.4% |
| title | Government |
| before_election | Third Söder cabinet |
| before_party | CSU—FW |
| posttitle | Government after election |
Elections to the Landtag of Bavaria will be held in 2028.
Electoral system
Main article: Bavarian state election system
The Landtag is elected using mixed-member proportional representation. Every voter has two votes, one for a candidate in their local constituency and one for a candidate in their regional district. Both votes are taken into account in the allocation of seats according to proportional representation. The election law was changed in 2022 to use the Sainte-Laguë method. There is no state-wide proportional representation; regional seats are allocated within the seven administrative districts, which are referred to as "constituencies" (Wahlkreise) in the constitution. The regional seats are allocated in an open-list fashion, according to votes cast for candidates.
Only parties and electoral groups that win at least 5% of the total votes across Bavaria (sum of first and second votes, meaning party votes and local district contest votes) participate in the allocation of seats. The regional "constituencies" are divided into local "electoral districts" (Stimmkreise), in each of which one MP is directly elected by getting plurality in the first (only) round.
The number of local "electoral districts" (91) is about equal to the number of seats in the regional "constituencies" (89). The number of seats may be increased if overhang seats occur. In that event, levelling seats are added in the regional constituency.
Background
In the 2023 Bavarian state elections, the CSU emerged once again as the leading party. The Free Voters and AfD saw significant increases in their voter support, securing the second and third positions, respectively. Conversely, the Greens experienced a decline, losing nearly 3 percentage points, which relegated them to the fourth spot. The SPD, despite further vote losses, retained its position as the fifth strongest party. The FDP, with a decrease of 2 percentage points, failed to secure enough votes to re-enter the state parliament. Neither the ÖDP nor the Left Party managed to surpass the five percent threshold required for representation.
Following the election, the coalition between the CSU and the Free Voters was continued, forming the Cabinet Söder III.
Opinion polls
Graphical summary
Party polling
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | CSU | FW | AfD | Grüne | SPD | FDP | Linke | BP | BSW | Others | Lead | Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};" | Free Voters}};" | Alternative for Germany}};" | Alliance 90/The Greens}};" | Social Democratic Party of Germany}};" | Free Democratic Party (Germany)}};" | The Left (Germany)}};" | Bavaria Party}};" | Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht}};" | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Civey | 5,000 | 40 | 11 | 18 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | – | 1 | 6 | Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;" | 22 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Infratest dimap | 1,177 | 39 | 9 | 19 | 13 | 8 | – | 3 | – | – | 9 | Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;" | 20 | ||||||||||||||||||
| GMS | 1,006 | 39 | 12 | 19 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;" | 20 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Civey | 5,000 | 37 | 10 | 21 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 4 | – | 2 | 4 | Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;" | 16 | ||||||||||||||||||
| GMS | 1,005 | 40 | 10 | 19 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 3 | – | 2 | 6 | Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;" | 21 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Civey | 5,000 | 40 | 9 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 1 | 5 | – | 2 | 3 | Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;" | 20 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Civey | 5,000 | 38 | 10 | 20 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 4 | – | 2 | 5 | Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;" | 18 | ||||||||||||||||||
| GMS | 1,017 | 39 | 11 | 19 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 5 | Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;" | 20 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Civey | 5,000 | 40 | 10 | 20 | 13 | 8 | 1 | 1 | – | 2 | 5 | Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;" | 20 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Forsa | 1,012 | 37 | 10 | 19 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | – | 1 | 3 | Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;" | 18 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Civey | 5,000 | 41 | 9 | 20 | 13 | 8 | 1 | 1 | – | 2 | 5 | Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;" | 21 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Civey | 5,002 | 37 | 10 | 22 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 1 | – | 3 | 6 | Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;" | 15 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Civey | 5,001 | 39 | 9 | 22 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 1 | – | 3 | 5 | Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;" | 17 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Civey | 5,004 | 39 | 9 | 19 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | – | 4 | 5 | Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;" | 20 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Civey | 5,006 | 39 | 10 | 18 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | – | 4 | 4 | Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;" | 21 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Civey | 5,006 | 41 | 11 | 15 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 2 | – | 4 | 5 | Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;" | 26 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Federal Parliament election | {{opdrts | 23 | Feb | 2025 | year}} | – | 37.2 | 4.3 | 19.0 | 12.0 | 11.6 | 4.2 | 5.7 | 0.2 | 3.1 | 2.9 | Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;" | 18.2 | |||||||||||||
| Civey | 5,007 | 41 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 8 | 1 | 1 | – | 4 | 5 | Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;" | 27 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Civey | 5,011 | 43 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 1 | – | 3 | 5 | Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;" | 29 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Civey | 5,001 | 42 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | – | 4 | 5 | Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;" | 28 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Civey | 5,008 | 44 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | – | 4 | 7 | Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;" | 32 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Civey | 5,001 | 42 | 12 | 14 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | – | – | 10 | Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;" | 28 | ||||||||||||||||||
| INSA | 1,000 | 43 | 11 | 18 | 10 | 8 | – | – | – | 5 | 5 | Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;" | 25 | ||||||||||||||||||
| GMS | 1,048 | 42 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;" | 30 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Civey | 5,002 | 42 | 13 | 15 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 1 | – | – | 8 | Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;" | 27 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Civey | 5,002 | 42 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 1 | – | – | 8 | Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;" | 28 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Forsa | 1,036 | 43 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 2 | – | – | 4 | 7 | Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;" | 30 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Civey | 5,004 | 42 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 1 | – | – | 8 | Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;" | 28 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Civey | 5,004 | 41 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | – | – | 7 | Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;" | 27 | ||||||||||||||||||
| European Parliament election | {{opdrts | 9 | Jun | 2024 | year}} | 6,324,011 | 39.7 | 6.8 | 12.6 | 11.8 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 1.4 | – | 3.8 | 11.1 | Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;" | 27.1 | |||||||||||||
| Civey | 5,005 | 41 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | – | – | 7 | Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;" | 27 | ||||||||||||||||||
| GMS | 1,023 | 41 | 15 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;" | 26 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Civey | 5,002 | 42 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | – | – | 7 | Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;" | 28 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Civey | 5,001 | 42 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 1 | – | – | 7 | Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;" | 28 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Civey | 5,001 | 40 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 1 | – | – | 7 | Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;" | 26 | ||||||||||||||||||
| GMS | 1,018 | 42 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;" | 27 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Infratest dimap | 1,161 | 40 | 13 | 15 | 13 | 7 | 3 | – | – | – | 9 | Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;" | 25 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Civey | 5,000 | 41 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 2 | – | – | 5 | Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;" | 27 | ||||||||||||||||||
| GMS | 1,002 | 41 | 16 | 14 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | – | 5 | Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;" | 25 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Civey | 4,999 | 41 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 2 | – | – | 5 | Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;" | 27 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Civey | 5,001 | 40 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | – | – | 6 | Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;" | 26 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 state election | {{opdrts | 8 | Oct | 2023 | year}} | – | 37.0 | 15.8 | 14.6 | 14.4 | 8.4 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.9 | – | 4.2 | Christian Social Union in Bavaria}};color:#FFFFFF;" | 21.2 |
References
References
- [http://www.gesetze-bayern.de/Content/Document/BayLWG-36 Artikel 36 Bayerisches Landeswahlgesetz]
- [https://www.verkuendung-bayern.de/gvbl/2022-218/ Gesetz zur Änderung des Landeswahlgesetzes vom 23. Mai 2022 (GVBl. S. 218) §1 Nr. 9]
- [http://www.gesetze-bayern.de/Content/Document/BayVerf-14 Artikel 14 (1) Bayerische Verfassung]
- [http://www.gesetze-bayern.de/Content/Document/BayLWG-5 Artikel 5 Bayerisches Landeswahlgesetz]
- [http://www.gesetze-bayern.de/Content/Document/BayLWG-43 Artikel 43 Bayerisches Landeswahlgesetz]
- "Landtagswahl in Bayern: CSU siegt in Bayern trotz schwachem Ergebnis – AfD gewinnt dazu". ZEIT ONLINE.
- "Sonntagsfrage zur Landtagswahl in Bayern".
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