2026 Senedd election

The 2026 Senedd election is due to be held on 7 May 2026 to elect 96 members to the Senedd (Welsh Parliament; Welsh: Senedd Cymru). It will be the seventh devolved general election since the Senedd (formerly the National Assembly for Wales) was established in 1999. It will also be the first election following reforms to the voting system, which increase the size of the Senedd from 60 members to 96, adopt a party-list voting system, reduce the number of constituencies to sixteen, and shorten its term from five years to four. The election will be held on the same day as local elections in England and elections to the Scottish Parliament.

In the 2021 Senedd election, Welsh Labour won another government with just one seat short of their first-ever majority. Shortly after, they entered an co-operation agreement with Plaid Cymru, which fell short of a typical coalition or confidence and supply agreement, but represented some degree of policy collaboration. At the 2022 Welsh local elections, the Welsh Conservatives suffered losses to Plaid Cymru and Labour.

In December 2023, Mark Drakeford announced he would stand down as First Minister, following the successful election of his successor. The ensuing Welsh Labour leadership election was won narrowly by Vaughan Gething. The Gething government was short, lasting until July 2024, due to two distinct scandals, relating to allegations of cronyism and allegations that Gething had lied about deleting text messages relating to the COVID-19 Pandemic. During this time, Plaid Cymru left the co-operation agreement they had had with Welsh Labour.

In the midst of this, at the 2024 United Kingdom general election in Wales, Labour won the most seats and the Conservatives were wiped out losing all their Welsh seats. Shortly after the election, later in July 2024, Gething announced he would stand down, after a process to select his successor. The following July 2024 Welsh Labour leadership election was uncontested, with Eluned Morgan being elected.

At the UK-wide level, a number of other factors have also played in significantly, including various issues relating to the Starmer Government, and the ongoing United Kingdom cost-of-living crisis.

In October 2025 Plaid Cymru unexpectedly won the 2025 Caerphilly by-election from Labour, they had held the seat since the Senedd's inception in 1999 and its Westminister counterpart since the seats creation in 1918.

Since the middle of the Gething Government, and continuing through successive events, Welsh Labour's polling performance has declined. Welsh Labour had previously been the most successful political party in the democratic era, having the longest winning streak of any political party. The 2026 vote is correspondingly considered to be seismic for Welsh politics and is being touted as the "most consequential Senedd election since 1999". It has also attracted "unprecedented" interest internationally in Welsh politics, primarily from other European nations. Polls have suggested a neck and neck battle between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK.

The 2026 Senedd election was the first to feature an online elections information platform, vote.wales, managed by the Electoral Management Board for Wales, part of the Democracy and Boundary Commission Cymru.

The 2026 Senedd election will use a new electoral system following the approval of the Senedd Reform Act. The Senedd will have 96 members, all elected through closed party list proportional representation (using the D'Hondt method) in 16 six-member constituencies. The 16 constituencies were created by pairing up the 32 Westminster constituencies. Parties can nominate up to 8 candidates on their list in each constituency.

Voters will be given one ballot, rather than two previously, and would vote for one political party (or an independent candidate), rather than individual people, resulting in voters being unable to vote for a specific individual candidate. The available seats would then be distributed proportionally to the parties based on how many votes they received, electing the candidates in the order on their ranked party list. The single ballot paper will show the list of (up to) eight candidates next to each party in order, therefore showing all the candidates in a constituency on the ballot paper.

In the event that an elected Senedd member resigns during the term, they will be replaced by the member below them on their party's list rather than a by-election being held. Should the relevant party's list for that constituency be exhausted, the seat will remain vacant for the remainder of the term.

In all prior elections since its establishment as the Welsh Assembly in 1999, the Senedd has been elected through the additional member system, and had 60 members, under which 40 out of 60 seats were elected by the first past the post system from single-member constituencies (the same as those used for Westminster), while the remaining 20 were attributed regionally (in 5 regions of 4 seats) on the basis of a second vote for a closed party list of candidates. The additional member seats in each region were allocated from the lists by the D'Hondt method, with constituency results being taken into account in the allocation. The new electoral system would be ready to be used only for elections held after 6 April 2026, to allow time for the new constituencies to be drawn up. The next election is due to be held on 7 May 2026.

Another proposed reform bill would have provided for mandatory "zipping" of male and female candidates in the list to ensure that for every party, half of the Members will be women; however, this bill was scrapped in September 2024.

Map of the 16 constituencies to be used for the election

MSs who have announced their retirement are in italics.

NB: MSs in office (i.e. incumbents) before the election who are seeking re-election are bolded.

According to Professor John Curtice, campaign issues include the economy, cost of living, health and social care services, and immigration. However, immigration is not controlled by the Senedd and is a power reserved to the UK parliament.

On 2 February 2025, Welsh Labour leader Eluned Morgan said she would be open to a coalition with Plaid Cymru after the election "if needs must". She ruled out a coalition with Reform UK, as she thought there was a "red line on that one". She rejected the suggestion put to her that Welsh Labour was under threat at the election, explaining that there is "an international shift going on at the moment and we've got several months now to make sure people understand what's at stake here", and also called Reform an "English focused party" with "nothing Welsh about" them. This election has been described as pivotal for the premiership of Keir Starmer. Morgan warned that a "threat to the United Kingdom will become real" if Plaid and the Green Party gain a majority in the Senedd, calling for further devolution, calling it the "best way to lower the temperature and raise trust."

A day later, Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth similarly ruled out working with Reform, describing the two parties' worldviews as "fundamentally different." In April 2025, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage said his party "would work with any other Senedd party" and that the new voting system means "it's not going to be easy" to win an overall majority.

On 21 March 2025, Plaid Cymru announced a pledge to introduce a weekly direct child benefit titled the 'Cynnal' payment, which would share similarities to the Scottish Child Payment introduced by the Scottish Government. This was followed by a pledge on 10 October to expand universal childcare in Wales, bringing 20 hours of childcare a week for 48 weeks a year, eligible to all children aged 9 months to 4 years.

After becoming the most popular party leader in opinion polls in early 2025, ap Iorwerth ruled out holding an independence referendum in a first term of a Plaid Cymru government, in contrast to the party's 2021 manifesto, stating that they still kept a "long term ambition" of Welsh independence.

Following the election of Zack Polanski as Green Party leader in September 2025, the party's popularity rose sharply. Their positive relationship with Plaid Cymru could lead to collaboration of some sort; however, ap Iorwerth said he would prefer a minority government over any coalition.

On 5 February 2026 Reform UK announced Dan Thomas as their leader in Wales, although he was an unknown figure in Wales having moved away in 1999 and was a Conservative Party councillor on Barnet London Borough Council from 2006 to 2025.

On 27 and 28 February Plaid Cymru held their spring conference, and announced their plan for first 100 days in government which announced many of their policies before their full manifesto.

On 1 March 2026, Eluned Morgan announced that if Welsh Labour wins the Senedd election they would spend £4 billion to build the "hospitals of the future".

On 2 March 2026, the Welsh Conservatives launched their manifesto. They proposed to build the M4 Relief Road, take 1 pence off the basic rate of income tax alongside scrapping business rates for small firms and re-establishing the Welsh Development Agency. The party also announced it's intention to reverse the 20mph national default speed limit, scrap the Nation of Sanctuary initiative, and place restrictions on wind farm developments.

On 3 March 2026, the Welsh Liberal Democrats called for £10 million for cross‑border healthcare in Powys.

On 5 March 2026, Reform UK launched their Welsh manifesto in Newport, where Nigel Farage called the election a referendum on the Prime Minister's leadership. The party pledged several policies that were similarly included in the Welsh Conservative manifesto, such as 1 pence income tax cuts, reversing of the default 20mph speed limit and scrapping the Nation of Sanctuary. The party also pledged to build the M4 relief road, intending to establish it as a toll road, make local people in Wales a priority for social housing, abolish Natural Resources Wales, as well as proposing a ban on any new onshore wind farms.

On 26 March 2026, the Welsh Conservatives launched their election campaign in Swansea.

On 27 March 2026, a leading Reform UK candidate - who was formerly a Conservative special adviser - stepped down from contesting the Senedd election after a photo was published appearing to show him performing a Nazi salute. Nigel Farage said the photo "looked terrible" and he "wouldn't approve of it" but that the candidate would not be kicked out of the party. The photo was published the day prior by Nation.Cymru and while the date of the photo has not be confirmed, Reform UK say it is from 2019.

On 30 March 2026, Eluned Morgan launched the Welsh Labour manifesto at an event in Swansea. Alongside their existing pledges the party committed to a freeze on the Welsh rates of income tax, pressing medical need being seen within 48 hours, extend free school meals to all secondary school pupils in receipt of universal credit, create 20,000 new childcare spaces and deliver 100,000 new homes over the next 10 years. On the same day Plaid Cymru launched their election campaign in Bedwas, with Rhun ap Iorwerth calling the election a two-horse race between Plaid and Reform for who will become the largest party.

By 31 March 2026, three Reform UK Senedd candidates had quit the party. Their reasons for leaving included the party's candidate selection process, betrayal of party members and prioritisation of former Conservative politicians over local people, with two of the three stating the party has too many former Conservatives. One of the former candidates criticised the party's top candidates for being driven by "power, money and self-interest".

On 31 March 2026, the Green Party election campaign was launched by Anthony Slaughter with the presence of Zack Polanski, where they also unveiled their full slate of candidates. The Green Party's pledges include lowering water bills via public ownership of water companies and rent controls.

On 7 April 2026, former UKIP politician Caroline Jones announced that she had left Reform UK due to parachute candidates being put on Reform constituencies lists before local members and 'allegations relating to racism and discrimination'.

On 8 April 2026, the Welsh Liberal Democrats campaign was launched by Jane Dodds in Swansea. Campaign pledges include £300 million for social care. Their manifesto was launched on 14 April.

For the election to be held in May 2026, Wales has been divided into 16 multi-member constituencies, each based on a pairing of two adjacent constituencies used for the UK Parliament since 2024. Each of these 16 constituencies will elect 6 members of the Senedd using a system of proportional representation.

Labour led in most polls until early 2025, when opinion polls began to show Plaid Cymru and Reform as each leading or tied.

LOESS curve of polling conducted

Ahead of the election, various modelling efforts have produced seat projections for the next Senedd election. Below are selected projections and the result of the previous election for comparison.

49 seats needed for a majority.

The following MSs have announced their intention to not run for re-election:

• 2026 Scottish Parliament election

• Next Northern Ireland Assembly election

• Next Senedd election

• Example ballot paper