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2024 United States Senate election in Ohio


The 2024 United States Senate election in Ohio was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Ohio. Incumbent Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown lost re-election to a fourth term, being defeated by Republican nominee Bernie Moreno. Primary elections took place on March 19, 2024. This was the first U.S. Senate race in Ohio where the incumbent was defeated since 2006, when Brown defeated Mike DeWine.

This race was one of two 2024 U.S. Senate races in which Democratic senators sought re-election in states where Republican Donald Trump won in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections (the other being Montana). This was the most expensive U.S. Senate election of 2024, with a record-breaking $483.4 million spent in total. Brown's reelection was considered essential for Democrats' chances to retain the Senate majority in 2024.

Moreno won 8 counties that Brown won in 2018, all of them located in northern Ohio, Ashtabula, Erie, Lake, Mahoning, Ottawa, Portage, Trumbull, and Wood. His campaign was aided by Republican nominee Donald Trump's 11.21% margin of victory in Ohio, helping secure an outright majority for Senate Republicans for the first time since 2021, with a net gain of four seats in the 2024 elections. Although Brown outperformed Kamala Harris in the concurrent presidential election by 7.59 percentage points, it was not enough to win. Brown received about 120,000 more votes than Harris, while Moreno received about 320,000 fewer votes than Trump. Libertarian candidate Don Kissick received around 195,000 votes, approximately 3% of the vote. This was the first time since 1954 that a Republican defeated an incumbent Democrat senator in Ohio. Along with Bob Casey Jr. in Pennsylvania and Jon Tester in Montana, Brown was one of three incumbent senators to lose re-election in 2024. Notably, all three were first elected in 2006, defeating Republican incumbents, and won re-election in 2012 and 2018. To date, this is Sherrod Brown's second general election loss of his political career, following his 1990 loss to Robert Taft in his bid for re-election as Secretary of State of Ohio. Following his defeat, Brown would later run for the Senate again in 2026.

Moreno's swearing in on January 3, 2025 gave Republicans control of both of Ohio's U.S. Senate seats for the first time since 2007. As Ohio's other U.S. senator, JD Vance, was elected vice president of the United States, Moreno became Ohio's senior senator upon Vance's resignation.

After voting for Barack Obama in both the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections, Ohio has trended increasingly Republican in subsequent years and is now considered a red state. Republicans hold all statewide offices in addition to the majority in both chambers of the state legislature. Republicans also have a majority of the state's US House delegation.

Donald Trump won Ohio in 2016 and again in 2020 by 8 points both times.

Republican JD Vance defeated Democrat Tim Ryan in 2022 for Ohio’s other U.S. Senate seat by slightly over 6 points.

Brown was first elected in 2006, defeating Senator Mike DeWine (who was subsequently elected governor), and won re-election in 2012 and 2018. If he had been reelected he would have been only the second Ohioan to be elected to the United States Senate by popular vote four times, the other being John Glenn. Abortion was a key issue of the election. Brown held a pro-choice stance, while Moreno held a pro life stance and won the support of Ohio Right to Life. Brown raised the issue frequently. Because of this, the topic of abortion made the news. Initially, the seat was viewed by many to be a likely Democratic win, with some early polls showing Brown ahead, but Moreno attained a lead in the summer which grew through the duration of the campaign.

  • Sherrod Brown, incumbent U.S. senator (2007–2025)
Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2023
Sherrod Brown (D)$27,838,244$14,594,991$14,614,497
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic535,305100.0%
535,305100.0%
  • Bernie Moreno, former car dealership owner, father-in-law of U.S. representative Max Miller, and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2022

  • Matt Dolan, state senator from the 24th district (2017–2024) and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2022

  • Frank LaRose, Ohio Secretary of State (2019–present)

  • Doug Stuart, retired businessman

  • Warren Davidson, U.S. representative for Ohio's 8th congressional district (2016–present) (running for re-election, endorsed Moreno)

  • Mark Kvamme, venture capitalist and sports car racing driver (endorsed Moreno)

  • Josh Mandel, former Ohio State Treasurer (2011–2019), nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2012 and candidate in 2018 and 2022 (endorsed Moreno)

  • Vivek Ramaswamy, pharmaceutical executive (ran unsuccessfully for president, endorsed Moreno)

No.DateHostModeratorLinkCandidates
January 22, 2024FOX 8Colleen MarshallJoe TooheyFOX 8PPP
February 19, 2024Spectrum NewsMike KallmeyerSpectrum NewsPPP
March 6, 2024WLWTSheree PaolelloYouTubePPP
Campaign finance reports as of February 28, 2024
Matt Dolan (R)$11,425,814$9,089,493$2,383,077
Bernie Moreno (R)$9,735,460$7,338,751$2,396,709
Frank LaRose (R)$2,217,016$1,625,972$591,043
Poll sourceDate(s)administeredSamplesizeMarginof errorMattDolanFrankLaRoseBernieMorenoOtherUndecided
Emerson CollegeMarch 17–18, 2024450 (LV)± 4.6%40%16%44%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic UniversityMarch 13–15, 2024818 (RV)± 3.4%31%19%29%21%
East Carolina UniversityMarch 8–11, 2024<1,298 (LV)± 4.6%39%27%34%
SurveyUSAMarch 6–11, 2024533 (LV)± 3.3%18%16%22%44%
Emerson CollegeMarch 7–10, 2024443 (LV)± 2.6%26%16%23%3%32%
SurveyUSAFebruary 27 – March 3, 2024568 (LV)± 4.6%27%21%29%23%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)February 25–26, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%19%21%31%27%
Emerson CollegeJanuary 23–25, 20241844 (RV)± 2.3%15%21%22%42%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)December 12–14, 2023600 (LV)± 4.0%16%18%22%44%
SurveyUSADecember 8–12, 2023573 (LV)± 4.6%18%33%12%1%35%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)December 3–5, 2023600 (LV)± 4.0%18%19%23%40%
co/efficient (R)November 18–20, 2023950 (LV)± 3.18%13%14%15%58%
Emerson College/WJW-TVNovember 10–13, 2023468 (LV)± 4.5%15%18%10%32%25%
Data for Progress (D)October 31 – November 2, 2023294 (LV)± 6.0%20%30%7%0%43%
Ohio Northern UniversityOctober 16–19, 2023269 (LV)± 8.2%13%30%7%2%49%
Ohio Northern UniversityJuly 17–26, 2023675 (RV)± 3.7%18%32%7%1%43%
Suffolk/USA TodayJuly 9–12, 2023190 (RV)14%19%9%57%
East Carolina UniversityJune 21–24, 2023405 (RV)± 4.0%14%17%7%4%58%
Causeway Solutions (R)May 19–27, 2023526 (RV)± 2.5%11%24%6%17%42%

Results by county:   Moreno   40–50%  50–60%  60–70%

Vote share of Bernie Moreno (left), Matt Dolan (center), Frank LaRose (right) by counties

PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican557,62650.48%
Republican363,01332.86%
Republican184,11116.67%
1,104,750100.0%
  • Don Kissick, auto worker and nominee for Ohio's 5th congressional district in 2018

  • Stephen Faris, electrical engineer

  • David Allen Pastorius

  • Nathan Russell

  • Tariq Shabazz (Green Party), U.S. Navy veteran and perennial candidate

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political ReportTossupSeptember 25, 2024
Inside ElectionsTossupSeptember 26, 2024
Sabato's Crystal BallLean R (flip)November 4, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The HillTossupSeptember 27, 2024
Elections DailyLean DNovember 4, 2024
CNalysisTilt DNovember 4, 2024
RealClearPoliticsTossupSeptember 28, 2024
Split TicketTossupOctober 23, 2024
538TossupOctober 23, 2024
Campaign finance reports as of October 16, 2024
Sherrod Brown (D)$91,399,138$88,358,633$4,411,749
Bernie Moreno (R)$24,237,971$21,447,672$2,636,429

Aggregate polls

Source of pollaggregationDatesadministeredDatesupdatedSherrodBrown (D)BernieMoreno (R)UndecidedMargin
FiveThirtyEightthrough November 4, 2024November 4, 202447.1%47.8%5.1%Moreno +0.7%
RealClearPoliticsOctober 23 – November 4, 2024November 4, 202446.3%48.0%5.7%Moreno +1.7%
270toWinOctober 10 – November 4, 2024November 4, 202447.3%47.0%5.7%Brown +0.3%
TheHill/DDHQthrough November 4, 2024November 4, 202446.8%48.9%4.3%Moreno +2.1%
Average46.9%47.9%5.2%Moreno +1.0%
Poll sourceDate(s)administeredSamplesizeMarginof errorSherrodBrown (D)BernieMoreno (R)OtherUndecided
AtlasIntelNovember 3–4, 20241,022 (LV)± 3.0%46%49%3%3%
The Trafalgar Group (R)November 2–4, 20241,095 (LV)± 2.9%48%48%2%2%
Emerson CollegeOctober 30 – November 2, 2024900 (LV)± 3.2%45%48%6%
48%52%
Morning ConsultOctober 23 – November 1, 20241,254 (LV)± 3.0%46%47%7%
Miami UniversityOctober 28–30, 2024857 (RV)± 5.0%48%46%3%2%
The Trafalgar Group (R)October 25–28, 20241,127 (LV)± 2.9%48%47%2%3%
ActiVoteOctober 14–28, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%49%51%
J.L. Partners (R)October 22–24, 2024997 (LV)± 3.1%46%52%3%
University of AkronSeptember 12 – October 24, 20241,241 (RV)± 2.8%46%44%10%
OnMessage Inc. (R)October 19–22, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%47%49%3%3%
Bowling Green State University/YouGovOctober 10–21, 20241,000 (LV)± 3.6%47%45%1%7%
ActiVoteSeptember 23 – October 20, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%48%52%
Morning ConsultOctober 6–15, 2024490 (LV)± 3.0%46%47%1%6%
The Washington PostOctober 3–7, 20241,002 (LV)± 3.5%48%47%1%3%
1,002 (RV)48%47%1%4%
Marist CollegeOctober 3–7, 20241,327 (LV)± 3.2%50%48%2%
1,511 (RV)± 3.0%49%48%1%2%
Bowling Green State University/YouGovSeptember 18–27, 20241,000 (LV)± 3.6%49%45%6%
New York Times/Siena CollegeSeptember 21–26, 2024687 (LV)± 4.2%47%43%10%
687 (RV)± 4.1%46%41%13%
ActiVoteAugust 16 – September 22, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%49%51%
RMG ResearchSeptember 18–20, 2024781 (LV)± 3.5%46%48%5%
Morning ConsultSeptember 9–18, 20241,488 (LV)± 3.0%46%44%10%
Morning ConsultAugust 30 – September 8, 20241,558 (LV)± 3.0%46%43%11%
SoCal Strategies (R)August 31 – September 1, 2024600 (LV)50%45%5%
Rasmussen Reports (R)August 13–17, 20241,267 (LV)47%42%11%
ActiVoteJuly 20 – August 12, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%52.5%47.5%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)July 23–28, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%46%42%1%11%
Remington Research Group (R)June 29 – July 1, 2024611 (LV)± 4.0%50%44%7%
Marist CollegeJune 3–6, 20241,137 (RV)± 3.6%50%45%1%4%
National Public AffairsMay 28–29, 2024801 (LV)± 3.5%54%46%
March 19, 2024Primary elections held
Mainstreet Research/FAUMarch 13–15, 2024818 (RV)± 3.4%47%36%17%
East Carolina UniversityMarch 8–11, 20241,298 (LV)± 3.2%45%41%3%12%
SurveyUSAMarch 6–11, 2024533 (LV)± 3.3%43%37%20%
Emerson CollegeMarch 7–10, 20241,300 (RV)± 2.6%39%34%6%21%
Emerson CollegeJanuary 23–25, 20241844 (RV)± 2.3%39%37%5%18%
Emerson CollegeNovember 10–13, 20231,000 (RV)± 3.0%42%32%26%
Data for Progress (D)October 31 – November 2, 2023597 (LV)± 4.0%47%44%9%
Ohio Northern UniversityOctober 16–19, 2023668 (RV)± 3.8%48%26%1%25%
Emerson CollegeOctober 1–3, 2023438 (RV)± 4.5%35%33%32%
Ohio Northern UniversityJuly 17–26, 2023675 (RV)± 3.7%45%28%0%27%
Suffolk UniversityJuly 9–12, 2023500 (LV)± 4.4%48%41%10%
East Carolina UniversityJune 21–24, 2023805 (RV)± 4.0%46%42%2%11%

Moreno was declared the winner at around 11:30 PM on Election Day. Brown had the second worst performance of a Democratic incumbent in 2024. Only Montana Senator Jon Tester had a worse performance.

While Brown was able to win urban counties, Moreno won nearly all rural and suburban counties except Athens and Lorain. He also managed to win most counties in Brown’s home region of northern Ohio, flipping 8 counties in this area that Brown had previously won.

PartyCandidateVotes%.mw-parser-output .tooltip-dotted{border-bottom:1px dotted;cursor:help}±%
Republican2,857,38350.09%+3.51%
Democratic2,650,94946.47%−6.93%
Libertarian195,6483.43%+3.43%
Write-in6400.01%-0.01%
5,704,620100.00%
69.91%+15.26
Republican gain from Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

  • Ashtabula (largest city: Ashtabula)
  • Erie (largest city: Sandusky)
  • Lake (largest city: Mentor)
  • Mahoning (largest city: Youngstown)
  • Ottawa (largest city: Port Clinton)
  • Portage (largest city: Kent)
  • Trumbull (largest city: Warren)
  • Wood (largest city: Bowling Green)

Moreno won nine of 15 congressional districts, with the remaining six going to Brown, including one that elected a Republican.

DistrictBrownMorenoRepresentative
53.7%43.1%Greg Landsman
28.8%67.4%Brad Wenstrup (118th Congress)
David Taylor (119th Congress)
71.1%26.4%Joyce Beatty
34.0%62.5%Jim Jordan
38.2%58.1%Bob Latta
36.6%59.7%Michael Rulli
47.7%49.4%Max Miller
39.7%56.8%Warren Davidson
48.1%47.4%Marcy Kaptur
48.7%47.7%Mike Turner
78.4%19.2%Shontel Brown
36.1%60.3%Troy Balderson
52.1%44.5%Emilia Sykes
44.2%52.3%David Joyce
47.5%49.1%Mike Carey

Partisan clients

Official campaign websites

  • Sherrod Brown (D) for Senate
  • Bernie Moreno (R) for Senate
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