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2020 United States presidential election in Nebraska
The 2020 United States presidential election in Nebraska was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Nebraska voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Nebraska has five electoral votes in the Electoral College, two from the state at large, and one each from the three congressional districts.
Located in the conservative Great Plains, Nebraska is one of the most reliably Republican states in the country, having backed the Democratic presidential nominee only once since 1936, during Lyndon B. Johnson's 1964 landslide, and having gone to the Republican nominee by a double-digit margin in every presidential election since. However, Nebraska is one of two states, the other being Maine, to allocate its electoral votes by congressional district. A candidate receives one electoral vote for each district won while the statewide winner receives an additional two electoral votes. Ever since Nebraska first adopted this system in 1992, in practice the Republican nominee has almost always won all three districts, and hence all the state's electoral votes. The first time it split its electoral votes came in 2008 when Barack Obama carried Nebraska's 2nd congressional district, anchored by Omaha, and thus received one electoral vote from the state despite losing statewide. The 2nd district returned to the Republican column in the following two elections, but in 2020 it was considered a key battleground.
Trump carried Nebraska statewide by 19 points on Election Day, down from 25 points in 2016. Biden was able to flip the 2nd district, carrying it by 6.6 points, the best Democratic performance since Nebraska first adopted its system of allocation by district, and the first time in this period that the district has voted more Democratic than the nation. Nebraska's 6% margin swing between 2016 and 2020 represented the largest leftward shift towards the Democratic Party out of any state won by Trump that the Democrats otherwise failed to flip, even shifting more leftward than Michigan which was Biden's strongest performance in a state won by Trump in 2016. Trump received the state's other four electoral votes. Before the election, all news organizations declared Nebraska a safe red state, while most organizations viewed the 2nd district as either leaning towards Biden or a tossup. This was the first election in which both Nebraska and Maine split their electoral votes.
The primary elections were held on May 12, 2020.
Donald Trump was declared the winner in the Republican primary, and thus received all of Nebraska's 36 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.
| Candidate | Votes | % | Estimateddelegates |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump (incumbent) | 243,721 | 91.4 | 36 |
| Bill Weld | 22,934 | 8.6 | 0 |
Joe Biden was declared the winner in the Democratic primary.
Jo Jorgensen was declared the winner of the Libertarian primary and went on to win the LP nomination.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Jo Jorgensen | 508 | 27.8% |
| Jacob Hornberger | 444 | 24.3% |
| Adam Kokesh | 263 | 14.4% |
| Lincoln Chafee (withdrawn) | 254 | 13.9% |
| Max Abramson (withdrawn) | 182 | 10.0% |
| Dan Behrman | 177 | 9.7% |
| Total | 1,828 | 100% |
| Source | Statewide | 1st district | 2nd district | 3rd district |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | Solid R | Solid R | Lean D (flip) | Solid R |
| Inside Elections | Solid R | Solid R | Tilt D (flip) | Solid R |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe R | Safe R | Lean D (flip) | Safe R |
| Politico | Solid R | Solid R | Lean D (flip) | Solid R |
| RCP | Solid R | Solid R | Tossup | Solid R |
| Niskanen | Safe R | Safe R | Tossup | Safe R |
| CNN | Solid R | Solid R | Lean D (flip) | Solid R |
| The Economist | Safe R | Not given | Not given | Not given |
| CBS News | Likely R | Likely R | Lean D (flip) | Likely R |
| 270towin | Safe R | Safe R | Lean D (flip) | Safe R |
| ABC News | Solid R | Solid R | Lean D (flip) | Solid R |
| NPR | Likely R | Lean R | Lean D (flip) | Likely R |
| NBC News | Solid R | Solid R | Lean D (flip) | Solid R |
| 538 | Solid R | Solid R | Lean D (flip) | Solid R |
Statewide
| Source of pollaggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | JoeBidenDemocratic | DonaldTrumpRepublican | Other/Undecided | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FiveThirtyEight | until November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 42.5% | 52.1% | 5.4% | Trump +9.7 |
| Poll source | Date(s)administered | Samplesize | Marginof error | DonaldTrumpRepublican | JoeBidenDemocratic | JoJorgensenLibertarian | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 | 1,742 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 56% | 43% | − | − | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Oct 1–28, 2020 | 2,423 (LV) | – | 53% | 46% | − | − | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Sep 1–30, 2020 | 799 (LV) | – | 57% | 41% | − | − | 2% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Aug 1–31, 2020 | 560 (LV) | – | 53% | 47% | − | − | 1% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Jul 1–31, 2020 | 910 (LV) | – | 54% | 44% | − | − | 2% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Jun 8–30, 2020 | 267 (LV) | – | 56% | 42% | − | − | 2% |
1st congressional district
| Poll source | Date(s)administered | Samplesize | Marginof error | DonaldTrumpRepublican | JoeBidenDemocratic | JoJorgensenLibertarian | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategies 360/Kate Bolz | Jul 16–22, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 48% | 46% | − | − | – |
2nd congressional district
| Poll source | Date(s)administered | Samplesize | Marginof error | DonaldTrumpRepublican | JoeBidenDemocratic | JoJorgensenLibertarian | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Nevada | Oct 30 – Nov 2, 2020 | 191 (LV) | ± 7% | 44% | 50% | 5% | – | – |
| Change Research | Oct 29 – Nov 2, 2020 | 920 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 50% | 2% | 0% | 0% |
| Emerson College | Oct 29–30, 2020 | 806 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 50% | – | 2% | – |
| FM3 Research/Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC | Oct 1–4, 2020 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 42% | 53% | − | 5% | – |
| Siena College/NYT | Sep 25–27, 2020 | 420 (LV) | ± 5.3% | 41% | 48% | 4% | 1% | 6% |
| Global Strategy Group/House Majority PAC | Sep 14–16, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 44% | 50% | − | 1% | 3% |
| Global Strategy Group/House Majority PAC | Jul 27–29, 2020 | 400 (LV) | – | 45% | 51% | − | 2% | 3% |
| GQR/Kara Eastman | Jun 30 – Jul 5, 2020 | 502 (LV) | ± 4.37% | 44% | 51% | − | – | – |
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department/Ally Mutnick | May 7–10, 2020 | 448 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 41% | 52% | − | – | – |
These slates of electors were nominated by each party in order to vote in the Electoral College should their candidate win the state:
| Donald Trump and Mike PenceRepublican Party | Joe Biden and Kamala HarrisDemocratic Party | Jo Jorgensen and Spike CohenLibertarian Party |
|---|---|---|
| Darlene Starman (At-large)Steve Nelson (At-large)George Olmer (District 1)Mark Quandahl (District 2)Teresa Ibach (District 3) | Roger Wess (At-large)Peg Lippert (At-large)Larry Wright (District 1)Precious McKesson (District 2)Kathy Moore Jensen (District 3) | Ben Backus (At-large)Laura Ebke (At-large)Trevor Reilly (District 1)Margaret Austgen (District 2)Patrick Birkel (District 3) |
As expected, Trump easily carried the state at large. However, because Nebraska (along with Maine) allocates its remaining electoral votes by congressional district, Joe Biden was able to win an electoral vote from Nebraska's second district, which covers the increasingly liberal Omaha metro area. Barack Obama also won the same district in 2008 before it went back to the Republican column in 2012 and 2016.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | .mw-parser-output .tooltip-dotted{border-bottom:1px dotted;cursor:help}±% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 556,846 | 58.22% | −0.53% | |
| Democratic | 374,583 | 39.17% | +5.47% | |
| Libertarian | 20,283 | 2.12% | −2.49% | |
| Write-in | 4,671 | 0.49% | −1.41% | |
| 956,383 | 100.00% | |||
| Republican win |
| Column 1 | Column 2 |
|---|---|
| Parts of this article (those related to County results) need to be updated. The reason given is: County results needs to be fixed, totals aren't accurate when summed. (10 Dem vote difference). Please help update this article to reflect recent events or newly available information. (December 2024) |
Trump won two of Nebraska's three congressional districts, while Biden won the second, which elected a Republican.
| District | Trump | Biden | Other | Representative | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 180,290 | 56.01% | 132,261 | 41.09% | 9,335 | 2.90% | Jeff Fortenberry |
| 154,377 | 45.45% | 176,468 | 51.95% | 8,821 | 2.60% | Don Bacon |
| 222,179 | 75.36% | 65,854 | 22.34% | 6,798 | 2.31% | Adrian Smith |
Biden won only the two most populous counties in the state: Douglas County, home to Omaha, by 11 points, approximately the same margin Lyndon B. Johnson won the county within 1964 and the best result for Democrats since that election, and Lancaster County, home to the state's second-largest city and state capital Lincoln, where the University of Nebraska is located, by just under 8 points, another 56-year high for Democrats. While he didn't win the state's third largest, Sarpy County, a growing suburban county to the south of Omaha, which in all presidential elections from 1968 to 2016 except 2008 had backed the Republican candidate by at least 21 points, he reduced Trump's winning margin to only 11 points and won 43 percent of the vote there, again a 56-year best for Democrats. Biden also received more than 40 percent of the vote in two counties in the northeastern corner of the state: Thurston County, of which Trump only won by a plurality of 49.6% and is home to a Native American majority, and Dakota County, located to the north of the former and is home to a large Hispanic population.
Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Trump's strength in Nebraska came from whites, who constituted 90% of the electorate, and specifically from Protestants with 70%. Post-election, many rural Nebraskans expressed worries about trade and the economy under a Biden presidency, with 59% of voters stating they trusted Trump more to handle international trade. Joe Biden improved on Hillary Clinton's performance in Nebraska, as he did in most other states. Despite his loss, Biden's 374,583 votes are the most received by a Democratic candidate for president statewide in Nebraska, surpassing the previous record set by Franklin D. Roosevelt in the 1932 landslide.
Partisan clients
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United States presidential elections in Nebraska
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Presidency of Joe Biden
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2020 United States presidential election
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2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
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2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
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2020 United States elections
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Summary: State Laws on Presidential Electors (PDF), Washington DC: National Association of Secretaries of State, August 2020, Nebraska
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Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Nebraska", Voting & Elections Toolkits
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"Nebraska: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
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"League of Women Voters of Nebraska". (state affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
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Nebraska at Ballotpedia
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