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2016 United States Senate election in Maryland


The 2016 United States Senate election in Maryland took place on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Maryland, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Democratic Senator Barbara Mikulski decided to retire after five terms in the Senate. Primary elections were held April 26, 2016, in which Chris Van Hollen and Kathy Szeliga were chosen as the Democratic and Republican party nominees, respectively. In addition, the Green Party chose Margaret Flowers and the Libertarian Party chose Arvin Vohra as their respective nominees.

Van Hollen was heavily favored to win the election. He ultimately won with over 60% of the vote. As typically occurs with the state's elections, most support for the Democratic nominee, Van Hollen, came from the densely populated Baltimore–Washington metropolitan area in central Maryland, while the Republican nominee, Szeliga, did well in the more sparsely populated areas on the Eastern Shore and in Western Maryland, and narrowly won Anne Arundel County, home to the state capital Annapolis, as well as exurban Frederick County.

Mikulski first ran for the U.S. Senate in 1974, losing to Republican incumbent Charles Mathias. Mikulski then served in the U.S. House of Representatives from 1977 to 1987 and was elected to the U.S. Senate in 1986, succeeding the retiring Mathias. She was re-elected by large margins in 1992, 1998, 2004 and 2010. Shortly after being sworn in for her fifth term in 2011, she succeeded Margaret Chase Smith as the longest-serving female senator in U.S. history, and on March 17, 2012, she became the longest-serving female member of Congress in U.S. history, surpassing Congresswoman Edith Nourse Rogers of Massachusetts, who served from 1925 to 1960. On March 2, 2015, Mikulski announced that she would not run for re-election to a sixth term in office.

In August 2013, Abby Livingston of Roll Call had predicted that a potential retirement by Mikulski would create "chaos" and "blow open Maryland's political bottleneck" because "the state's teeming political Democratic Party talent is backed up in lower offices." Among the ten Democrats who ran in the primary, only two had previously been elected to an office.

  • Freddy Donald Dickson Jr.

  • Donna Edwards, U.S. Representative

  • Ralph Jaffe, perennial candidate

  • Theresa Scaldaferri

  • Charles U. Smith, perennial candidate

  • Violet Staley

  • Blaine Taylor

  • Ed Tinus, perennial candidate

  • Chris Van Hollen, U.S. Representative

  • Lih Young, perennial candidate

  • Rushern Baker, Prince George's County Executive (endorsed Chris Van Hollen)

  • Anthony Brown, former Lieutenant Governor of Maryland and nominee for Governor of Maryland in 2014 (ran for MD-04)

  • Susan L. Burke, attorney

  • Elijah Cummings, U.S. Representative (ran for re-election)

  • John Delaney, U.S. Representative (ran for re-election)

  • Peter Franchot, Comptroller of Maryland

  • Doug Gansler, former Attorney General of Maryland and candidate for Governor of Maryland in 2014

  • Steny Hoyer, U.S. Representative and House Minority Whip (ran for re-election)

  • Benjamin Jealous, former president and CEO of the NAACP

  • Kevin Kamenetz, Baltimore County Executive

  • Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, former lieutenant governor of Maryland, nominee for governor in 2002 and nominee for Maryland's 2nd congressional district in 1986

  • Frank Kratovil, former U.S. Representative

  • Kweisi Mfume, former U.S. Representative, former president and CEO of the NAACP and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2006

  • Barbara Mikulski, incumbent senator

  • Heather Mizeur, former state delegate and candidate for governor in 2014

  • Martin O'Malley, former governor of Maryland (ran for President)

  • Thomas Perez, United States Secretary of Labor and former secretary of the Maryland Department of Labor, Licensing and Regulation

  • Jamie Raskin, state senator (ran for MD-08)

  • Stephanie Rawlings-Blake, Mayor of Baltimore

  • Dutch Ruppersberger, U.S. Representative (ran for re-election)

  • John Sarbanes, U.S. Representative and son of former U.S. Senator Paul Sarbanes (ran for re-election)

  • Kenneth Ulman, former Howard County Executive and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2014

DatesLocationVan HollenEdwardsLink
March 25, 2016Baltimore, MarylandParticipantParticipant
Poll sourceDate(s)administeredSamplesizeMargin oferrorDonnaEdwardsChrisVan HollenOtherUndecided
Monmouth UniversityApril 18–20, 2016300± 5.7%36%52%1%11%
Public Policy PollingApril 15–17, 2016492± 4.4%33%42%25%
Marist CollegeApril 5–9, 2016775± 3.5%38%44%18%
Washington Post/University of MarylandMarch 30 – April 3, 2016539± 4.5%44%40%16%
Garin-Hart-Yang ResearchMarch 28–30, 2016604± 4.9%40%45%15%
University of BaltimoreMarch 4–9, 2016400± 4.9%34%28%31%
Gonzales ResearchFebruary 29 – March 4, 2016411± 5.0%41%42%17%
Goucher CollegeFebruary 13–18, 2016307± 5.6%39%37%24%
Gonzales ResearchJanuary 11–16, 2016402± 5%36%38%24%
University of BaltimoreNovember 13–17, 2015419± 4.8%19%28%40%13%
31%45%24%
Washington Post/University of MarylandOctober 8–11, 20151,006± 3.5%20%20%33%27%
Global Strategy Group (D-Edwards)August 3–9, 2015600± 4%42%37%21%
Mellman Group (D-Cummings)March 19–22, 2015700± 3.7%23%22%29%27%
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic470,32053.2%
Democratic343,62038.9%
Democratic14,8561.7%
Democratic13,1781.5%
Democratic10,2441.2%
Democratic8,5611.0%
Democratic7,9120.9%
Democratic7,1610.8%
Democratic5,9320.7%
Democratic2,5600.3%
884,344100.0%
  • Chris Chaffee, candidate for MD-05 in 2010 and nominee for MD-05 in 2014

  • Sean P. Connor

  • Richard Douglas, attorney, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2012

  • John Graziani, candidate for MD-04 in 2014

  • Greg Holmes, candidate for MD-04 in 2012 and 2014 and Democratic state senate candidate in 2006

  • Joseph Hooe, small business owner

  • Chrys Kefalas, vice president of executive communications for the National Association of Manufacturers and deputy legal counsel under Governor Bob Ehrlich

  • Mark McNicholas

  • Lynn Richardson

  • Anthony Seda

  • Richard Shawver, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2006

  • Kathy Szeliga, state delegate and House Minority Whip

  • Dave Wallace, businessman and nominee for MD-08 in 2014

  • Garry Thomas Yarrington

  • Dan Bongino, former United States Secret Service agent, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2012 and nominee for Maryland's 6th congressional district in 2014 (moved to Florida)

  • Ben Carson, author and retired director of pediatric neurosurgery at Johns Hopkins Hospital (running for President)

  • Kendel Ehrlich, former First Lady of Maryland

  • Robert Ehrlich, former governor of Maryland

  • Barry Glassman, Harford County Executive

  • Jeannie Haddaway-Riccio, former state delegate and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2014

  • Andy Harris, U.S. Representative (running for re-election)

  • Larry Hogan, Governor of Maryland

  • Mary Kane, former Secretary of State of Maryland and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2010

  • Allan Kittleman, Howard County Executive

  • Connie Morella, former U.S. Representative and former United States Ambassador to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

  • Laura Neuman, former Anne Arundel County Executive

  • Boyd Rutherford, Lieutenant Governor of Maryland

  • Steve Schuh, Anne Arundel County Executive

  • Michael Steele, former lieutenant governor of Maryland, former chairman of the Republican National Committee and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2006

Poll sourceDate(s)administeredSamplesizeMargin oferrorKathySzeligaRichardDouglasBarryGlassmanChrysKefalasAnthonySedaUndecided
Marist CollegeApril 5–9, 2016368± 5.1%20%13%9%57%
Washington Post/University of MarylandMarch 30 – April 3, 2016283± 7.5%15%9%11%46%
University of BaltimoreMarch 4–8, 2016400± 4.9%6%1%2%<1%79%
University of BaltimoreNovember 13–17, 2015307± 5.6%15%9%8%5%4%59%

Primary results by county   Szeliga   20–30%  30–40%  40–50%  50–60%   Chaffee   20–30%  30–40%  40–50%  50–60%

PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican135,33735.6%
Republican52,06613.7%
Republican36,3409.6%
Republican29,0077.6%
Republican23,2266.1%
Republican21,7275.7%
Republican20,7925.5%
Republican16,7224.4%
Republican16,1484.3%
Republican9,9882.6%
Republican8,2822.2%
Republican3,8731.0%
Republican3,1550.8%
Republican2,9880.8%
379,651100.0%

Szeliga won the April 26, 2016, primary in Baltimore City and each of Maryland's counties except Calvert, St. Mary's, Charles, and Prince George's, in which Chris Chaffee received more votes.

  • Margaret Flowers, former pediatrician, healthcare activist and radio host
PartyCandidateVotes%
Green12598.0%
Green32.0%
128100.0%
  • Greg Dorsey

  • Steve Gladstone

  • Edward Shlikas

  • Kay Young

  • Arvin Vohra, nominee for MD-05 in 2012 and for MD-04 in 2014

  • Margaret Flowers (G), former pediatrician, healthcare activist and radio host

  • Kathy Szeliga (R), state delegate and House Minority Whip

  • Chris Van Hollen (D), U.S. Representative

  • Arvin Vohra (L), nominee for MD-05 in 2012 and for MD-04 in 2014

DatesLocationVan HollenSzeligaLink
October 26, 2016Baltimore, MarylandParticipantParticipant
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political ReportSafe DNovember 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal BallSafe DNovember 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political ReportSafe DNovember 3, 2016
Daily KosSafe DNovember 8, 2016
Real Clear PoliticsSafe DNovember 7, 2016
Poll sourceDate(s)administeredSamplesizeMargin oferrorChrisVan Hollen (D)KathySzeliga (R)OtherUndecided
SurveyMonkeyNovember 1–7, 20161,216± 4.6%64%33%3%
SurveyMonkeyOctober 31 – November 6, 20161,056± 4.6%64%33%3%
SurveyMonkeyOctober 28 – November 3, 2016851± 4.6%66%32%2%
SurveyMonkeyOctober 27 – November 2, 2016772± 4.6%67%31%2%
SurveyMonkeyOctober 26 – November 1, 2016695± 4.6%66%31%3%
SurveyMonkeyOctober 25–31, 2016740± 4.6%66%31%3%
University of Maryland/Washington PostSeptember 27–30, 2016706± 4.0%58%29%5%6%
Goucher CollegeSeptember 17–20, 2016514± 4.3%54%24%2%19%
OpinionWorksAugust 18–30, 2016754± 3.6%55%26%1%19%
Public Policy PollingApril 15–17, 2016879± 3.3%53%25%22%
PartyCandidateVotes%.mw-parser-output .tooltip-dotted{border-bottom:1px dotted;cursor:help}±%
Democratic1,659,90760.89%−1.30%
Republican972,55735.67%−0.08%
Green89,9703.30%+2.17%
Write-in3,7360.14%+0.03%
2,726,170100.00%N/A

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

  • Dorchester (largest municipality: Cambridge)
  • Somerset (largest municipality: Princess Anne)
  • Wicomico (largest municipality: Salisbury)
  • Anne Arundel (largest municipality: Glen Burnie)
  • Kent (largest municipality: Chestertown)
  • Talbot (largest municipality: Easton)

Van Hollen seven of eight congressional districts.

DistrictVan HollenSzeligaRepresentative
35%62%Andy Harris
61%36%Dutch Ruppersberger
62%35%John Sarbanes
76%21%Donna Edwards
Anthony Brown
64%33%Steny Hoyer
57%39%John Delaney
72%24%Elijah Cummings
64%33%Chris Van Hollen
Jamie Raskin
  • 2016 United States Senate elections
  • 2016 United States elections

Official campaign websites (archived)

  • Chris Van Hollen (D) for Senate
  • Kathy Szeliga (R) for Senate
  • Margaret Flowers (G) for Senate
  • Arvin Vohra (L) for Senate
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