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2016 United States Senate election in Maryland
The 2016 United States Senate election in Maryland took place on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Maryland, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
Incumbent Democratic Senator Barbara Mikulski decided to retire after five terms in the Senate. Primary elections were held April 26, 2016, in which Chris Van Hollen and Kathy Szeliga were chosen as the Democratic and Republican party nominees, respectively. In addition, the Green Party chose Margaret Flowers and the Libertarian Party chose Arvin Vohra as their respective nominees.
Van Hollen was heavily favored to win the election. He ultimately won with over 60% of the vote. As typically occurs with the state's elections, most support for the Democratic nominee, Van Hollen, came from the densely populated Baltimore–Washington metropolitan area in central Maryland, while the Republican nominee, Szeliga, did well in the more sparsely populated areas on the Eastern Shore and in Western Maryland, and narrowly won Anne Arundel County, home to the state capital Annapolis, as well as exurban Frederick County.
Mikulski first ran for the U.S. Senate in 1974, losing to Republican incumbent Charles Mathias. Mikulski then served in the U.S. House of Representatives from 1977 to 1987 and was elected to the U.S. Senate in 1986, succeeding the retiring Mathias. She was re-elected by large margins in 1992, 1998, 2004 and 2010. Shortly after being sworn in for her fifth term in 2011, she succeeded Margaret Chase Smith as the longest-serving female senator in U.S. history, and on March 17, 2012, she became the longest-serving female member of Congress in U.S. history, surpassing Congresswoman Edith Nourse Rogers of Massachusetts, who served from 1925 to 1960. On March 2, 2015, Mikulski announced that she would not run for re-election to a sixth term in office.
In August 2013, Abby Livingston of Roll Call had predicted that a potential retirement by Mikulski would create "chaos" and "blow open Maryland's political bottleneck" because "the state's teeming political Democratic Party talent is backed up in lower offices." Among the ten Democrats who ran in the primary, only two had previously been elected to an office.
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Freddy Donald Dickson Jr.
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Donna Edwards, U.S. Representative
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Ralph Jaffe, perennial candidate
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Theresa Scaldaferri
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Charles U. Smith, perennial candidate
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Violet Staley
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Blaine Taylor
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Ed Tinus, perennial candidate
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Chris Van Hollen, U.S. Representative
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Lih Young, perennial candidate
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Rushern Baker, Prince George's County Executive (endorsed Chris Van Hollen)
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Anthony Brown, former Lieutenant Governor of Maryland and nominee for Governor of Maryland in 2014 (ran for MD-04)
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Susan L. Burke, attorney
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Elijah Cummings, U.S. Representative (ran for re-election)
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John Delaney, U.S. Representative (ran for re-election)
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Peter Franchot, Comptroller of Maryland
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Doug Gansler, former Attorney General of Maryland and candidate for Governor of Maryland in 2014
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Steny Hoyer, U.S. Representative and House Minority Whip (ran for re-election)
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Benjamin Jealous, former president and CEO of the NAACP
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Kevin Kamenetz, Baltimore County Executive
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Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, former lieutenant governor of Maryland, nominee for governor in 2002 and nominee for Maryland's 2nd congressional district in 1986
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Frank Kratovil, former U.S. Representative
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Kweisi Mfume, former U.S. Representative, former president and CEO of the NAACP and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2006
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Barbara Mikulski, incumbent senator
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Heather Mizeur, former state delegate and candidate for governor in 2014
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Martin O'Malley, former governor of Maryland (ran for President)
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Thomas Perez, United States Secretary of Labor and former secretary of the Maryland Department of Labor, Licensing and Regulation
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Jamie Raskin, state senator (ran for MD-08)
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Stephanie Rawlings-Blake, Mayor of Baltimore
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Dutch Ruppersberger, U.S. Representative (ran for re-election)
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John Sarbanes, U.S. Representative and son of former U.S. Senator Paul Sarbanes (ran for re-election)
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Kenneth Ulman, former Howard County Executive and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2014
| Dates | Location | Van Hollen | Edwards | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 25, 2016 | Baltimore, Maryland | Participant | Participant |
| Poll source | Date(s)administered | Samplesize | Margin oferror | DonnaEdwards | ChrisVan Hollen | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monmouth University | April 18–20, 2016 | 300 | ± 5.7% | 36% | 52% | 1% | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling | April 15–17, 2016 | 492 | ± 4.4% | 33% | 42% | — | 25% |
| Marist College | April 5–9, 2016 | 775 | ± 3.5% | 38% | 44% | — | 18% |
| Washington Post/University of Maryland | March 30 – April 3, 2016 | 539 | ± 4.5% | 44% | 40% | — | 16% |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research | March 28–30, 2016 | 604 | ± 4.9% | 40% | 45% | — | 15% |
| University of Baltimore | March 4–9, 2016 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 34% | 28% | — | 31% |
| Gonzales Research | February 29 – March 4, 2016 | 411 | ± 5.0% | 41% | 42% | — | 17% |
| Goucher College | February 13–18, 2016 | 307 | ± 5.6% | 39% | 37% | — | 24% |
| Gonzales Research | January 11–16, 2016 | 402 | ± 5% | 36% | 38% | — | 24% |
| University of Baltimore | November 13–17, 2015 | 419 | ± 4.8% | 19% | 28% | 40% | 13% |
| 31% | 45% | — | 24% | ||||
| Washington Post/University of Maryland | October 8–11, 2015 | 1,006 | ± 3.5% | 20% | 20% | 33% | 27% |
| Global Strategy Group (D-Edwards) | August 3–9, 2015 | 600 | ± 4% | 42% | 37% | — | 21% |
| Mellman Group (D-Cummings) | March 19–22, 2015 | 700 | ± 3.7% | 23% | 22% | 29% | 27% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | 470,320 | 53.2% | |
| Democratic | 343,620 | 38.9% | |
| Democratic | 14,856 | 1.7% | |
| Democratic | 13,178 | 1.5% | |
| Democratic | 10,244 | 1.2% | |
| Democratic | 8,561 | 1.0% | |
| Democratic | 7,912 | 0.9% | |
| Democratic | 7,161 | 0.8% | |
| Democratic | 5,932 | 0.7% | |
| Democratic | 2,560 | 0.3% | |
| 884,344 | 100.0% |
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Chris Chaffee, candidate for MD-05 in 2010 and nominee for MD-05 in 2014
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Sean P. Connor
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Richard Douglas, attorney, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2012
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John Graziani, candidate for MD-04 in 2014
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Greg Holmes, candidate for MD-04 in 2012 and 2014 and Democratic state senate candidate in 2006
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Joseph Hooe, small business owner
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Chrys Kefalas, vice president of executive communications for the National Association of Manufacturers and deputy legal counsel under Governor Bob Ehrlich
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Mark McNicholas
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Lynn Richardson
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Anthony Seda
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Richard Shawver, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2006
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Kathy Szeliga, state delegate and House Minority Whip
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Dave Wallace, businessman and nominee for MD-08 in 2014
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Garry Thomas Yarrington
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Dan Bongino, former United States Secret Service agent, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2012 and nominee for Maryland's 6th congressional district in 2014 (moved to Florida)
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Ben Carson, author and retired director of pediatric neurosurgery at Johns Hopkins Hospital (running for President)
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Kendel Ehrlich, former First Lady of Maryland
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Robert Ehrlich, former governor of Maryland
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Barry Glassman, Harford County Executive
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Jeannie Haddaway-Riccio, former state delegate and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2014
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Andy Harris, U.S. Representative (running for re-election)
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Larry Hogan, Governor of Maryland
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Mary Kane, former Secretary of State of Maryland and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2010
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Allan Kittleman, Howard County Executive
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Connie Morella, former U.S. Representative and former United States Ambassador to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
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Laura Neuman, former Anne Arundel County Executive
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Boyd Rutherford, Lieutenant Governor of Maryland
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Steve Schuh, Anne Arundel County Executive
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Michael Steele, former lieutenant governor of Maryland, former chairman of the Republican National Committee and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2006
| Poll source | Date(s)administered | Samplesize | Margin oferror | KathySzeliga | RichardDouglas | BarryGlassman | ChrysKefalas | AnthonySeda | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marist College | April 5–9, 2016 | 368 | ± 5.1% | 20% | 13% | – | 9% | – | 57% |
| Washington Post/University of Maryland | March 30 – April 3, 2016 | 283 | ± 7.5% | 15% | 9% | – | 11% | – | 46% |
| University of Baltimore | March 4–8, 2016 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 6% | 1% | – | 2% | <1% | 79% |
| University of Baltimore | November 13–17, 2015 | 307 | ± 5.6% | 15% | 9% | 8% | 5% | 4% | 59% |
Primary results by county Szeliga 20–30% 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% Chaffee 20–30% 30–40% 40–50% 50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 135,337 | 35.6% | |
| Republican | 52,066 | 13.7% | |
| Republican | 36,340 | 9.6% | |
| Republican | 29,007 | 7.6% | |
| Republican | 23,226 | 6.1% | |
| Republican | 21,727 | 5.7% | |
| Republican | 20,792 | 5.5% | |
| Republican | 16,722 | 4.4% | |
| Republican | 16,148 | 4.3% | |
| Republican | 9,988 | 2.6% | |
| Republican | 8,282 | 2.2% | |
| Republican | 3,873 | 1.0% | |
| Republican | 3,155 | 0.8% | |
| Republican | 2,988 | 0.8% | |
| 379,651 | 100.0% |
Szeliga won the April 26, 2016, primary in Baltimore City and each of Maryland's counties except Calvert, St. Mary's, Charles, and Prince George's, in which Chris Chaffee received more votes.
- Margaret Flowers, former pediatrician, healthcare activist and radio host
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Green | 125 | 98.0% | |
| Green | 3 | 2.0% | |
| 128 | 100.0% |
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Greg Dorsey
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Steve Gladstone
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Edward Shlikas
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Kay Young
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Arvin Vohra, nominee for MD-05 in 2012 and for MD-04 in 2014
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Margaret Flowers (G), former pediatrician, healthcare activist and radio host
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Kathy Szeliga (R), state delegate and House Minority Whip
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Chris Van Hollen (D), U.S. Representative
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Arvin Vohra (L), nominee for MD-05 in 2012 and for MD-04 in 2014
| Dates | Location | Van Hollen | Szeliga | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 26, 2016 | Baltimore, Maryland | Participant | Participant |
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | Safe D | November 2, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe D | November 7, 2016 |
| Rothenberg Political Report | Safe D | November 3, 2016 |
| Daily Kos | Safe D | November 8, 2016 |
| Real Clear Politics | Safe D | November 7, 2016 |
| Poll source | Date(s)administered | Samplesize | Margin oferror | ChrisVan Hollen (D) | KathySzeliga (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | November 1–7, 2016 | 1,216 | ± 4.6% | 64% | 33% | — | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 31 – November 6, 2016 | 1,056 | ± 4.6% | 64% | 33% | — | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 28 – November 3, 2016 | 851 | ± 4.6% | 66% | 32% | — | 2% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 27 – November 2, 2016 | 772 | ± 4.6% | 67% | 31% | — | 2% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 26 – November 1, 2016 | 695 | ± 4.6% | 66% | 31% | — | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 25–31, 2016 | 740 | ± 4.6% | 66% | 31% | — | 3% |
| University of Maryland/Washington Post | September 27–30, 2016 | 706 | ± 4.0% | 58% | 29% | 5% | 6% |
| Goucher College | September 17–20, 2016 | 514 | ± 4.3% | 54% | 24% | 2% | 19% |
| OpinionWorks | August 18–30, 2016 | 754 | ± 3.6% | 55% | 26% | 1% | 19% |
| Public Policy Polling | April 15–17, 2016 | 879 | ± 3.3% | 53% | 25% | — | 22% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | .mw-parser-output .tooltip-dotted{border-bottom:1px dotted;cursor:help}±% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | 1,659,907 | 60.89% | −1.30% | |
| Republican | 972,557 | 35.67% | −0.08% | |
| Green | 89,970 | 3.30% | +2.17% | |
| Write-in | 3,736 | 0.14% | +0.03% | |
| 2,726,170 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Dorchester (largest municipality: Cambridge)
- Somerset (largest municipality: Princess Anne)
- Wicomico (largest municipality: Salisbury)
- Anne Arundel (largest municipality: Glen Burnie)
- Kent (largest municipality: Chestertown)
- Talbot (largest municipality: Easton)
Van Hollen seven of eight congressional districts.
| District | Van Hollen | Szeliga | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35% | 62% | Andy Harris | |
| 61% | 36% | Dutch Ruppersberger | |
| 62% | 35% | John Sarbanes | |
| 76% | 21% | Donna Edwards | |
| Anthony Brown | |||
| 64% | 33% | Steny Hoyer | |
| 57% | 39% | John Delaney | |
| 72% | 24% | Elijah Cummings | |
| 64% | 33% | Chris Van Hollen | |
| Jamie Raskin |
- 2016 United States Senate elections
- 2016 United States elections
Official campaign websites (archived)
- Chris Van Hollen (D) for Senate
- Kathy Szeliga (R) for Senate
- Margaret Flowers (G) for Senate
- Arvin Vohra (L) for Senate
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