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2016 United States Senate election in Hawaii

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2016 United States Senate election in Hawaii

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FieldValue
election_name2016 United States Senate election in Hawaii
countryHawaii
typepresidential
ongoingno
previous_election2014 United States Senate special election in Hawaii
previous_year2014
(special)
next_election2022 United States Senate election in Hawaii
next_year2022
election_dateNovember 8, 2016
image1File:Brian Schatz, official portrait, 113th Congress (cropped).jpg
nominee1Brian Schatz
party1Democratic Party (United States)
popular_vote1306,604
percentage173.61%
image2File:John Carroll.jpg
image_sizex150px
nominee2John Carroll
party2Republican Party (United States)
popular_vote292,653
percentage222.24%
map_image
map_captionSchatz:
titleU.S. Senator
before_electionBrian Schatz
before_partyDemocratic Party (United States)
after_electionBrian Schatz
after_partyDemocratic Party (United States)

(special)

The 2016 United States Senate election in Hawaii was held November 8, 2016, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primaries were held August 13. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Brian Schatz won reelection to his first full term in office, defeating Republican former state legislator John Carroll.

Background

In 2011, Daniel Inouye announced that he planned to run for a record tenth term in 2016, when he would have been 92 years old. He also said, "I have told my staff and I have told my family that when the time comes, when you question my sanity or question my ability to do things physically or mentally, I don't want you to hesitate, do everything to get me out of here, because I want to make certain the people of Hawaii get the best representation possible."

Inouye died on December 17, 2012. Hawaii Governor Neil Abercrombie appointed Lieutenant Governor Brian Schatz, a Democrat, to succeed Inouye. Schatz won a 2014 special election to serve the remainder of Inouye's term.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Makani Christensen
  • Tutz Honeychurch
  • Arturo Reyes, perennial candidate
  • Brian Schatz, incumbent senator
  • Miles Shiratori

Declined

  • Colleen Hanabusa, former U.S. Representative and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014 (running for HI-01)
  • Mark Takai, U.S. Representative (died)
  • Tulsi Gabbard, U.S. Representative (running for reelection)

Former

  • Daniel Inouye, U.S. Senator from Hawaii (1963–2012), U.S. Representative for Hawaii's at-large congressional district (1959–1963). Inouye had declared his intent to run for re-election to a record tenth term, but he died in office on December 17, 2012.

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

  • John Carroll, former State Senator, former State Representative, nominee for US Senate in 2000 and perennial candidate
  • Karla Gottschalk, attorney
  • Eddie Pirkowski, perennial candidate
  • John Roco, perennial candidate

Withdrew

  • Charles Collins, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2012 and for Governor of Hawaii in 2014

Declined

  • Cam Cavasso, former state representative and Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2004, 2010, and 2014
  • Charles Djou, former U.S. Representative (running for Mayor of Honolulu)

Results

Results by county:

]]

Other primaries

Libertarian

Candidates

Declared
  • Michael Kokoski, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2014

Results

Constitution

Candidates

Declared
  • Joy Allison, independent candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014

Results

American Shopping

Candidates

Declared
  • John Giuffre

Results

General election

Schatz defeated Carroll on election day, winning his second election to the U.S. Senate and his first full term after being appointed to the seat in 2012 following the death of Daniel Inouye. This was his largest margin of victory, as he won over 4% more of the electorate in this election.

Fundraising

CandidateRaisedSpentCash on Hand
Brian Schatz (D)$3,316,074$1,195,572$3,074,380
John Carroll (R)

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political ReportNovember 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political ReportNovember 3, 2016
Daily KosNovember 8, 2016
Real Clear PoliticsNovember 7, 2016

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorBrian
Schatz (D)John
Carroll (R)Undecided
SurveyMonkeyNovember 1–7, 2016426± 4.6%70%26%4%
SurveyMonkeyOctober 31–November 6, 2016426± 4.6%67%29%4%
SurveyMonkeyOctober 28–November 3, 2016435± 4.6%68%26%6%
SurveyMonkeyOctober 27–November 2, 2016424± 4.6%70%26%4%
SurveyMonkeyOctober 26–November 1, 2016428± 4.6%70%26%4%
SurveyMonkeyOctober 25–31, 2016467± 4.6%69%27%4%

Results

By county

CountyBrian Schatz
DemocraticJohn Carroll
RepublicanAll Others#%#%#%HawaiiHonoluluKauaiMauiTotals
47,00374.59%12,76620.26%3,2465.15%
203,37272.98%64,93923.3%10,3453.71%
19,01576.13%4,74519.0%1,2164.87%
37,21474.55%10,20320.44%2,4985.01%
306,60473.6%92,65322.24%17,3054.15%

By congressional district

Schatz won both congressional districts.

DistrictSchatzCarrollRepresentative
74%22%Colleen Hanabusa
73%22%Tulsi Gabbard

References

References

  1. Manu Raju and John Bresnahan. (April 12, 2011). "Sen. Daniel Inouye goes silent on big Hawaiian race". Politico.
  2. Hamilton, Chris. "The Maui News - Inouye has more he wants to do for (Hawaii Senator emphasizes need for Democrats to remain in control)". The Maui News.
  3. Mizutani, Ron. (April 26, 2010). "Sen. Akaka: "God willing, I Plan to Run Again in 2012"". [[KHON2]].
  4. "Hawaii Sen. Daniel Inouye dies at age 88". Washington Post.
  5. "Federal State County Sorted by: Contest". Hawaii Secretary of State.
  6. (January 28, 2015). "Senators Confirm Re-Election Bids for 2016". Roll Call.
  7. Stephen O'Harrow. (August 18, 2014). "Dan Inouye and Brian Schatz: A Lesson in Hawaii Politics". Honolulu Civil Beat.
  8. Blair, Chad. (March 14, 2015). "Tulsi Gabbard Looks to Be Running for Re-election". Honolulu Civil Beat.
  9. "Leadership Lessons from the Late Sen. Daniel Inouye".
  10. "Statewide Results". Hawaii Office of Elections.
  11. "Hawaii Senate Races Results". Politico.
  12. "Archived copy".
  13. "Charles Collins for US Senate".
  14. "Schatz, Brian — Candidate for Senate". Federal Elections Commission.
  15. "2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016".
  16. "2016 Senate".
  17. "2016 Senate Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report.
  18. "Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version".
  19. "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics.
  20. [https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArc1RLTFJqQ3JhTTA/view SurveyMonkey]
  21. [https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArcEwxQXh2M25qSFE/view SurveyMonkey]
  22. [https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kAreE9xVzhyUUNZNGc/view SurveyMonkey]
  23. [https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArd1o5cmhoTmVQbDg/view SurveyMonkey]
  24. [https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArcTNEc0hBTzFlSVE/view SurveyMonkey]
  25. [https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kAraEFpRXdFc21TVG8/view SurveyMonkey]
  26. (August 16, 2016). "Office of Elections – State of Hawaii – Statewide". State of Hawaii Office of Elections.
  27. "Dra 2020".
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