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2016 United States Senate election in Hawaii
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| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| election_name | 2016 United States Senate election in Hawaii |
| country | Hawaii |
| type | presidential |
| ongoing | no |
| previous_election | 2014 United States Senate special election in Hawaii |
| previous_year | 2014 |
| (special) | |
| next_election | 2022 United States Senate election in Hawaii |
| next_year | 2022 |
| election_date | November 8, 2016 |
| image1 | File:Brian Schatz, official portrait, 113th Congress (cropped).jpg |
| nominee1 | Brian Schatz |
| party1 | Democratic Party (United States) |
| popular_vote1 | 306,604 |
| percentage1 | 73.61% |
| image2 | File:John Carroll.jpg |
| image_size | x150px |
| nominee2 | John Carroll |
| party2 | Republican Party (United States) |
| popular_vote2 | 92,653 |
| percentage2 | 22.24% |
| map_image | |
| map_caption | Schatz: |
| title | U.S. Senator |
| before_election | Brian Schatz |
| before_party | Democratic Party (United States) |
| after_election | Brian Schatz |
| after_party | Democratic Party (United States) |
(special)
The 2016 United States Senate election in Hawaii was held November 8, 2016, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primaries were held August 13. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Brian Schatz won reelection to his first full term in office, defeating Republican former state legislator John Carroll.
Background
In 2011, Daniel Inouye announced that he planned to run for a record tenth term in 2016, when he would have been 92 years old. He also said, "I have told my staff and I have told my family that when the time comes, when you question my sanity or question my ability to do things physically or mentally, I don't want you to hesitate, do everything to get me out of here, because I want to make certain the people of Hawaii get the best representation possible."
Inouye died on December 17, 2012. Hawaii Governor Neil Abercrombie appointed Lieutenant Governor Brian Schatz, a Democrat, to succeed Inouye. Schatz won a 2014 special election to serve the remainder of Inouye's term.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Makani Christensen
- Tutz Honeychurch
- Arturo Reyes, perennial candidate
- Brian Schatz, incumbent senator
- Miles Shiratori
Declined
- Colleen Hanabusa, former U.S. Representative and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014 (running for HI-01)
- Mark Takai, U.S. Representative (died)
- Tulsi Gabbard, U.S. Representative (running for reelection)
Former
- Daniel Inouye, U.S. Senator from Hawaii (1963–2012), U.S. Representative for Hawaii's at-large congressional district (1959–1963). Inouye had declared his intent to run for re-election to a record tenth term, but he died in office on December 17, 2012.
Results
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- John Carroll, former State Senator, former State Representative, nominee for US Senate in 2000 and perennial candidate
- Karla Gottschalk, attorney
- Eddie Pirkowski, perennial candidate
- John Roco, perennial candidate
Withdrew
- Charles Collins, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2012 and for Governor of Hawaii in 2014
Declined
- Cam Cavasso, former state representative and Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2004, 2010, and 2014
- Charles Djou, former U.S. Representative (running for Mayor of Honolulu)
Results
]]
Other primaries
Libertarian
Candidates
Declared
- Michael Kokoski, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2014
Results
Constitution
Candidates
Declared
- Joy Allison, independent candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014
Results
American Shopping
Candidates
Declared
- John Giuffre
Results
General election
Schatz defeated Carroll on election day, winning his second election to the U.S. Senate and his first full term after being appointed to the seat in 2012 following the death of Daniel Inouye. This was his largest margin of victory, as he won over 4% more of the electorate in this election.
Fundraising
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on Hand | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Schatz (D) | $3,316,074 | $1,195,572 | $3,074,380 | |
| John Carroll (R) |
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | November 2, 2016 | |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | November 7, 2016 | |
| Rothenberg Political Report | November 3, 2016 | |
| Daily Kos | November 8, 2016 | |
| Real Clear Politics | November 7, 2016 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| administered | Sample | |||||
| size | Margin of | |||||
| error | Brian | |||||
| Schatz (D) | John | |||||
| Carroll (R) | Undecided | |||||
| SurveyMonkey | November 1–7, 2016 | 426 | ± 4.6% | 70% | 26% | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 31–November 6, 2016 | 426 | ± 4.6% | 67% | 29% | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 28–November 3, 2016 | 435 | ± 4.6% | 68% | 26% | 6% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 27–November 2, 2016 | 424 | ± 4.6% | 70% | 26% | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 26–November 1, 2016 | 428 | ± 4.6% | 70% | 26% | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 25–31, 2016 | 467 | ± 4.6% | 69% | 27% | 4% |
Results
By county
| County | Brian Schatz | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | John Carroll | |||||||||||||||||||
| Republican | All Others | # | % | # | % | # | % | Hawaii | Honolulu | Kauai | Maui | Totals | ||||||||
| 47,003 | 74.59% | 12,766 | 20.26% | 3,246 | 5.15% | |||||||||||||||
| 203,372 | 72.98% | 64,939 | 23.3% | 10,345 | 3.71% | |||||||||||||||
| 19,015 | 76.13% | 4,745 | 19.0% | 1,216 | 4.87% | |||||||||||||||
| 37,214 | 74.55% | 10,203 | 20.44% | 2,498 | 5.01% | |||||||||||||||
| 306,604 | 73.6% | 92,653 | 22.24% | 17,305 | 4.15% |
By congressional district
Schatz won both congressional districts.
| District | Schatz | Carroll | Representative | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 74% | 22% | Colleen Hanabusa | |||||
| 73% | 22% | Tulsi Gabbard |
References
References
- Manu Raju and John Bresnahan. (April 12, 2011). "Sen. Daniel Inouye goes silent on big Hawaiian race". Politico.
- Hamilton, Chris. "The Maui News - Inouye has more he wants to do for (Hawaii Senator emphasizes need for Democrats to remain in control)". The Maui News.
- Mizutani, Ron. (April 26, 2010). "Sen. Akaka: "God willing, I Plan to Run Again in 2012"". [[KHON2]].
- "Hawaii Sen. Daniel Inouye dies at age 88". Washington Post.
- "Federal State County Sorted by: Contest". Hawaii Secretary of State.
- (January 28, 2015). "Senators Confirm Re-Election Bids for 2016". Roll Call.
- Stephen O'Harrow. (August 18, 2014). "Dan Inouye and Brian Schatz: A Lesson in Hawaii Politics". Honolulu Civil Beat.
- Blair, Chad. (March 14, 2015). "Tulsi Gabbard Looks to Be Running for Re-election". Honolulu Civil Beat.
- "Leadership Lessons from the Late Sen. Daniel Inouye".
- "Statewide Results". Hawaii Office of Elections.
- "Hawaii Senate Races Results". Politico.
- "Archived copy".
- "Charles Collins for US Senate".
- "Schatz, Brian — Candidate for Senate". Federal Elections Commission.
- "2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016".
- "2016 Senate".
- "2016 Senate Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report.
- "Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version".
- "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics.
- [https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArc1RLTFJqQ3JhTTA/view SurveyMonkey]
- [https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArcEwxQXh2M25qSFE/view SurveyMonkey]
- [https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kAreE9xVzhyUUNZNGc/view SurveyMonkey]
- [https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArd1o5cmhoTmVQbDg/view SurveyMonkey]
- [https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArcTNEc0hBTzFlSVE/view SurveyMonkey]
- [https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kAraEFpRXdFc21TVG8/view SurveyMonkey]
- (August 16, 2016). "Office of Elections – State of Hawaii – Statewide". State of Hawaii Office of Elections.
- "Dra 2020".
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