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2016 United States Senate election in Arkansas
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| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| election_name | 2016 United States Senate election in Arkansas |
| country | Arkansas |
| type | presidential |
| ongoing | no |
| previous_election | 2010 United States Senate election in Arkansas |
| previous_year | 2010 |
| next_election | 2022 United States Senate election in Arkansas |
| next_year | 2022 |
| election_date | November 8, 2016 |
| image_size | x150px |
| image1 | File:John Boozman, official portrait, 112th Congress.jpg |
| nominee1 | John Boozman |
| party1 | Republican Party (United States) |
| popular_vote1 | 661,984 |
| percentage1 | 59.77% |
| image2 | File:Connereldridge-150.jpg |
| nominee2 | Conner Eldridge |
| party2 | Democratic Party (United States) |
| popular_vote2 | 400,602 |
| percentage2 | 36.17% |
| map | {{switcher |
| title | U.S. Senator |
| before_election | John Boozman |
| before_party | Republican Party (United States) |
| after_election | John Boozman |
| after_party | Republican Party (United States) |
| turnout | 64.65% |
| 210px
| County results
| [[File:2016 United States Senate election in Arkansas results map by congressional district.svg|210px]]
| Congressional district results
| [[File:2016 U.S. Senate Elections--Arkansas Townships.svg|210px]]
| Township results
| [[File:AR Senate 2016.svg|210px]]
| Precinct results}} Boozman:
Eldridge:
Tie:
The 2016 United States Senate election in Arkansas was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Arkansas, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
Incumbent senator John Boozman won re-election to a second term in office, becoming the first Republican senator reelected in the history of the state. Former U.S. Attorney Conner Eldridge was the only Democrat to declare his candidacy. The primaries were held March 1. This is also the first election that the state has simultaneously voted for a Republican Senate candidate and a Republican presidential candidate.
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- John Boozman, incumbent U.S. Senator
- Curtis Coleman, businessman, candidate for governor in 2014 and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| administered | Sample | |||||
| size | Margin of | |||||
| error | John | |||||
| Boozman | Curtis | |||||
| Coleman | Undecided | |||||
| Talk Business/Hendrix College | February 4, 2016 | 457 | ± 4.6% | 68% | 23% | 9% |
Results
Democratic primary
Conner Eldridge was unopposed for the Democratic nomination.
Candidates
Declared
- Conner Eldridge, former United States Attorney for the Western District of Arkansas
Results
Third parties
The Libertarian Party of Arkansas held a special nominating convention on October 24, 2015, to select nominees for elections in 2016. Frank Gilbert was selected as the nominee for the U.S. Senate race.
Candidates
Nominated
- Frank Gilbert, DeKalb Township Constable, former mayor of Tull, nominee for the state senate in 2012 and nominee for governor in 2014
General election
Candidates
- John Boozman (R), incumbent senator
- Conner Eldridge (D), former United States Attorney for the Western District of Arkansas
- Frank Gilbert (L), DeKalb Township Constable, former mayor of Tull, nominee for the state senate in 2012 and nominee for governor in 2014
Debates
| Dates | Location | Boozman | Eldridge | Gilbert | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 12, 2016 | Little Rock, Arkansas | Participant | Participant | Participant | - C-SPAN |
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | November 2, 2016 | |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | November 7, 2016 | |
| Rothenberg Political Report | November 3, 2016 | |
| Daily Kos | November 8, 2016 | |
| Real Clear Politics | November 7, 2016 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| administered | Sample | |||||||
| size | Margin of | |||||||
| error | John | |||||||
| Boozman (R) | Conner | |||||||
| Eldridge (D) | Frank | |||||||
| Gilbert (L) | Other | Undecided | ||||||
| SurveyMonkey | November 1–7, 2016 | 930 | ± 4.6% | 56% | 41% | — | — | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 31 – November 6, 2016 | 798 | ± 4.6% | 55% | 42% | — | — | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 28 – November 3, 2016 | 696 | ± 4.6% | 56% | 43% | — | — | 1% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 27 – November 2, 2016 | 593 | ± 4.6% | 54% | 43% | — | — | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 26 – November 1, 2016 | 475 | ± 4.6% | 52% | 46% | — | — | 2% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 25–31, 2016 | 484 | ± 4.6% | 54% | 44% | — | — | 2% |
| University of Arkansas | October 18–25, 2016 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 61% | 38% | — | 1% | — |
| Talk Business/Hendrix College | October 21, 2016 | 463 | ± 4.6% | 52% | 34% | 4% | 2% | 8% |
| Talk Business/Hendrix College | September 15–17, 2016 | 831 | ± 3.4% | 55% | 29% | 5% | 3% | 8% |
| Emerson College | September 9–13, 2016 | 600 | ± 3.6% | 44% | 30% | — | 11% | 15% |
| Talk Business/Hendrix College | June 21, 2016 | 751 | ± 3.6% | 51% | 29% | 6% | — | 14% |
with Mike Beebe
| Poll source | Date(s) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| administered | Sample | |||||||
| size | Margin of | |||||||
| error | John | |||||||
| Boozman (R) | Mike | |||||||
| Beebe (D) | Other | Undecided | ||||||
| Public Policy Polling | August 1–3, 2014 | 1,066 | ± 3% | 40% | 46% | — | 14% | |
| Public Policy Polling | September 18–21, 2014 | 1,453 | ± 2.6% | 39% | 49% | — | 12% | |
| Talk Business/Hendrix College | June 8–11, 2015 | 1,183 | ± 1.84% | 37% | 45% | — | 18% |
Results
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Arkansas (Largest city: Stuttgart)
- Fulton (Largest city: Salem)
- Monroe (largest city: Clarendon)
- Mississippi (largest city: Osceola)
- Lincoln (largest city: Star City)
- Jackson (largest city: Newport)
- Lawrence (largest city: Walnut Ridge)
By congressional district
Boozman won all four congressional districts
| District | Boozman | Eldridge | Representative | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63% | 33% | Rick Crawford | |||||||||
| 51% | 45% | French Hill | |||||||||
| 64% | 31% | Steve Womack | |||||||||
| 62% | 35% | Bruce Westerman |
References
References
- "Conner Eldridge to Challenge Boozman for U.S. Senate Seat | Times Record".
- DeMillo, Andrew. (June 9, 2014). "Boozman, back at work post-surgery, to run in '16".
- [https://talkbusiness.net/2016/02/sen-boozman-has-commanding-lead-over-gop-challenger-coleman Talk Business/Hendrix College]
- "Preferential Primary and Nonpartisan General Election official Results". Arkansas Secretary of State.
- Yokley, Eli. (September 9, 2015). "Former U.S. Attorney Will Challenge Boozman in Arkansas". Roll Call.
- Brawner, Steve. (October 25, 2015). "Arkansas Libertarians Nominate 23, Including Full Congressional Slate". Talk Business & Politics.
- [https://www.c-span.org/video/?416593-1/arkansas-senate-debate Full debate]
- "2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016".
- "2016 Senate".
- "2016 Senate Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report.
- "Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version".
- "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics.
- [https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArc1RLTFJqQ3JhTTA/view SurveyMonkey]
- [https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArcEwxQXh2M25qSFE/view SurveyMonkey]
- [https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kAreE9xVzhyUUNZNGc/view SurveyMonkey]
- [https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArd1o5cmhoTmVQbDg/view SurveyMonkey]
- [https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArcTNEc0hBTzFlSVE/view SurveyMonkey]
- [https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kAraEFpRXdFc21TVG8/view SurveyMonkey]
- [https://fulbright.uark.edu/departments/political-science/partners/arkpoll/2016/Arkansas-Poll-Release-2016.pdf University of Arkansas]
- [https://talkbusiness.net/2016/10/trump-boozman-maintain-big-leads-in-arkansas Talk Business/Hendrix College]
- [https://talkbusiness.net/2016/09/boozman-still-far-ahead-of-eldridge-in-senate-contest Talk Business/Hendrix College]
- [https://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_b53ca6b673c14cdab9d68832bd7e74cb.pdf Emerson College]
- [https://talkbusiness.net/2016/06/poll-gov-hutchinson-job-approval-two-to-one-favorable-sen-boozman-up-on-eldridge Talk Business/Hendrix College]
- [https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_AR_806513.pdf Public Policy Polling]
- [https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_AR_922.pdf Public Policy Polling]
- [https://talkbusiness.net/2015/06/poll-huckabee-tops-hillary-beebe-bests-boozman-in-arkansas Talk Business/Hendrix College]
- "2016 General Election and Nonpartisan Runoff Election Unofficial County Results". Arkansas Secretary of State.
- "DRA 2020".
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