2015 Newfoundland and Labrador general election

Party leadership

Following the 2011 provincial election Liberal leader Kevin Aylward announced his resignation as leader. Aylward was unable to win a seat in the legislature and announced on October 26, 2011, he would step down once his successor was chosen. On December 15, 2011, the Liberal Party announced that Dwight Ball would become Leader of the Opposition and interim Liberal leader effective January 3, 2012. Party president Judy Morrow announced in December 2011, that the party was not likely to hold a leadership convention until sometime in 2013. On November 17, 2013, Dwight Ball was elected leader of the Liberal Party.

On January 22, 2014, Kathy Dunderdale announced she was resigning as Premier of Newfoundland and Labrador and leader of the Progressive Conservative Party (PC Party) later that week and that Finance Minister Tom Marshall would replace her until the party selected a new leader. On January 24, 2014, Marshall was sworn in as the province's 11th premier. Marshall had indicated that he would not be seeking re-election as the member of the House of Assembly for Humber East and therefore would not contest the leadership of the Progressive Conservative Party. The party held its leadership convention on September 13, 2014, and chose Paul Davis as its leader. Davis was sworn in as the 12th Premier on September 26, 2014.

Timeline

;2011

• October 11, 2011: Election held for members of the Newfoundland and Labrador House of Assembly in the 47th General Assembly of Newfoundland and Labrador.
• October 26, 2011: Liberal Leader Kevin Aylward announces his resignation after failing to win the district of St. George's-Stephenville East in the election.
• December 15, 2011: The Liberal Party announces that Humber Valley MHA Dwight Ball will become Leader of the Opposition and interim Liberal leader effective January 3, 2012. ;2012
• January 3, 2012: Dwight Ball becomes interim leader of the Liberal Party of Newfoundland and Labrador.
• September 13, 2012: Progressive Conservative MHA Tom Osborne announces that he has left the party and will sit as an independent. ;2013
• April 8, 2013: Yvonne Jones (Liberal) resigns her Cartwright-L'Anse au Clair seat to run in a federal by-election in Labrador.
• June 25, 2013: Lisa Dempster (Liberal) is elected MHA for Cartwright-L'Anse au Clair, following the resignation of Yvonne Jones.
• July 18, 2013: Bay of Islands MHA Eddie Joyce is named Leader of the Opposition and Interim Liberal Leader replacing Dwight Ball who resigned to run for the leadership permanently in the party's 2013 leadership election.
• August 29, 2013: Independent MHA Tom Osborne (former PC) joins the Liberal caucus.
• October 2, 2013: Jerome Kennedy (PC) resigns his Carbonear-Harbour Grace seat.
• October 21, 2013: The media reports that NDP Leader Lorraine Michael received a letter signed by all four members of her caucus over the previous weekend calling for a leadership election to be held in 2014. Michael subsequently asks the party to hold a leadership review in 2014 in which her leadership would be voted on, but not a full party convention.
• October 29, 2013: NDP MHAs Dale Kirby and Christopher Mitchelmore announce that they have left the NDP caucus and will sit as independents.
• November 17, 2013: Dwight Ball is elected as leader of the Liberal Party.
• November 26, 2013: Liberal Sam Slade is elected MHA for Carbonear-Harbour Grace. ;2014
• January 20, 2014: PC MHA Paul Lane for Mount Pearl South crosses the floor to the Liberal Party.
• January 24, 2014: Kathy Dunderdale resigns as Premier. Finance Minister Tom Marshall is sworn in as premier until Dunderdale's successor is chosen.
• January 27, 2014: Dale Kirby and Christopher Mitchelmore resign their NDP memberships and are now full Independents.
• February 4, 2014: Dale Kirby and Christopher Mitchelmore cross the floor to the Liberal Party.
• February 28, 2014: Kathy Dunderdale resigns her Virginia Waters seat.
• April 9, 2014: Cathy Bennett (Liberal) is elected MHA for Virginia Waters.
• April 17, 2014: Frank Coleman becomes leader-designate of the Progressive Conservative Party following the withdrawal of sole competitor Bill Barry from the leadership election.
• May 18, 2014: Following a party crisis in October 2013, Lorraine Michael is endorsed by 75% of NDP members during a leadership review.
• June 2, 2014: Joan Shea (PC) resigns her St. George's-Stephenville East seat.
• June 16, 2014: Citing a "significant and challenging family matter," Frank Coleman announces his withdrawal from the Progressive Conservative leadership race. As the only candidate left in the race, Coleman was to officially become Progressive Conservative leader at the party's convention on July 5, 2014. Following his withdrawal, Premier Tom Marshall announced that a convention would likely be postponed until after Labour Day.
• August 26, 2014: Scott Reid (Liberal) is elected MHA for St. George's-Stephenville East.
• September 5, 2014: Charlene Johnson (PC) resigns her Trinity-Bay de Verde seat.
• September 13, 2014: Paul Davis is elected leader of the Progressive Conservatives.
• September 18, 2014: Terry French (PC) resigns his Conception Bay South seat.
• September 26, 2014: Paul Davis is sworn in as premier.
• November 3, 2014: Tom Marshall (PC) resigns his Humber East seat.
• November 5, 2014: Rex Hillier (Liberal) is elected MHA for Conception Bay South.
• November 25, 2014: Steve Crocker (Liberal) and Stelman Flynn (Liberal) are elected as MHAs for Trinity-Bay de Verde and Humber East respectively. ;2015
• January 6, 2015: Lorraine Michael announces she will resign as NDP leader.
• March 7, 2015: Earle McCurdy is elected leader of the NDP.
• July 3, 2015: Kevin O'Brien (PC) resigns his Gander seat.

Campaign

In June 2015, Premier Davis announced that a general election would be held in November, after the October federal election. Many veteran PC MHAs who had served in Danny Williams' cabinet did not seek re-election. On November 5, Davis visited the lieutenant governor to request that the House of Assembly be dissolved. The election would be held on November 30.

The Liberals consistently held a massive lead in public opinion polling throughout the campaign, with 66% support among decided voters at the outset and 67% support in a poll released just one week before election day.

Their lead was so large and so unshakable that some pundits openly speculated that the party could potentially sweep every seat in the province, although others suggested that this was unlikely. Numerous ridings in and around St. John's remained more competitive than provincewide polling suggested, and some voters appeared to be swayed in the final days by the argument that even if they were inclined to support the Liberals, the province's democratic process would not be well-served by giving one party a clean sweep of the legislature with no opposition party to challenge them.

In the final results, the Liberals did win almost every seat in most of the province, except for a single Progressive Conservative incumbent hanging on in Central Newfoundland; in St. John's, however, the New Democrats successfully retained two of the three seats they held in the city, while the Progressive Conservatives held onto almost every seat in the city's suburbs.

The largest victory in the province was won by Liberal MLA Andrew Parsons in Burgeo-La Poile, who took 96.5% of the more than 4,000 votes cast in his riding while neither of his opponents garnered even 100 votes.

Party standings

This election saw the fourth change-in-government since Newfoundland and Labrador joined confederation in 1949.

Results by party

Liberal Party

The Liberal Party won 31 seats making this election their best election since 1999 when the party won 32. However, in 1990, the party won 32 of 48 seats (66.7%), while they won 31 of 40 seats (77.5%) in 2015. By percentage, this is the party's best result since 1966 when the party won 39 of 42 seats (92.9%). Dwight Ball is the province's first liberal premier since Roger Grimes. 6 liberal candidates won over 80% of the popular vote in their respective ridings and four of these six candidates were later appointed to the Executive Council.

Progressive Conservative Party

With this election, PC leader Paul Davis became the fourth incumbent premier to not lead his party to re-election (after Joey Smallwood in 1972, Tom Rideout in 1989 and Roger Grimes in 2003). With seven of 40 seats (17.5%), this is the party's worst result since 1966 when it won three of 42 seats.

New Democratic Party

In the 2011 election, the NDP placed second in total votes. They won five seats (a record-high for the party); however, since the election, two NDP MHAs defected to the Liberal Party. Only two of the three remaining NDP MHAs ran for re-election; these two MHAs were the only NDP candidates to win in this election. By percentage of seats however, this is the second-best result the provincial NDP has ever had winning two of 40 seats (5%). However, NDP leader McCurdy was defeated in his district.

Results by region

The district with the highest turnout was Cape St. Francis (71.68%). The district with the lowest turnout was Torngat Mountains (39.50%).

Candidates by district

Bold incumbents indicate cabinet members and party leaders are italicized. The premier's name is boldfaced and italicized.

• All candidate names are those on the official list of confirmed candidates; names in media or on party website may differ slightly.
• Names in boldface type represent party leaders.
• † Represents that the incumbent is not running again.
• § represents that the incumbent was defeated for nomination.
• ₰ represents that the incumbent ran in another district and lost the nomination.
• ‡ Represents that the incumbent is running in a different district.

St. John's

|- 46.81% turnout | |Rhonda Churchill Herder 1,104 27.4% || |Dale Kirby 1,899 47.1% | |Sean Panting 1,030 25.5% | | || |Dale Kirby St. John's North |- 47.58% turnout | |Kathie Hicks 490 10.6% | |Lynn Sullivan 1,923 41.7% || |Gerry Rogers 2,195 47.6% | | ||

| |Joshua Collier 478 8.1% | |Paul Antle 2,365 40.2% || |Lorraine Michael 3,035 51.6% | | || | George Murphy† St. John's East |- 55.63% turnout | |Dan Crummell 1,364 26.8% || |Siobhan Coady 2,342 46.0% | |Earle McCurdy 1,384 27.2% | | ||

| |Beth Crosbie 1,826 32.5% || |Bernard Davis 2,528 45.0% | |Bob Buckingham 1,259 22.4 | | || | Lorraine Michael‡ Signal Hill-Quidi Vidi |- 55.13% turnout 792 14.6% 3,588 65.9% 1,062 19.5% || |John Dinn Kilbride

| |Ryan Cleary 970 20.2% || |Cathy Bennett 3,182 66.3% | |Don Rowe 647 13.5% | | || |Cathy Bennett Virginia Waters |}

St. John's suburbs

|- 71.68% turnout || |Kevin Parsons 4,086 66.3% | |Geoff Gallant 1,613 26.2% | |Mark Gruchy 460 7.5% | | || |Kevin Parsons

|- 55.03% turnout || |Barry Petten 2,360 47.7% | |Steve Porter 2,187 44.2% | |Jeanne Clarke 398 8.0% | | ||

| |Randy Simms 2,571 42.4% | |Cameron Mercer-Maillet 370 6.1% | | ||

| |Jim Lester 2,318 42.9% || |Paul Lane 2,559 47.4% | |Roy Locke 522 9.7% | | || |Paul Lane Mount Pearl South |-

55.46% turnout || |David Brazil 3,463 59.2% | |Danny Dumaresque 1,582 27.1% | |Bill Kavanagh 803 13.7% | | ||

57.58% turnout || |Paul Davis 3,381 58.3% | |Rex Hillier 2,137 36.9% | |Chris Bruce 281 4.8% | | || |Paul Davis Topsail |}

Avalon Peninsula

|- 49.02% turnout 529 9.1% 4,952 85.0% 304 5.2% 38 0.7% || |Steve Crocker Trinity-Bay de Verde

| |Jeff Marshall 2,550 41.1% | |Mona Rossiter 564 9.1% | | ||

| |Glenn Littlejohn 2,289 36.3% || |Pam Parsons 3,877 61.5% | |Kathleen Burt 133 2.1% | | || |Glenn Littlejohn Port de Grave |- 56.31% turnout | |Curtis Buckle 1,998 34.9% || |Betty Parsley 2,253 39.4% | |Raymond Flaherty 1,381 24.2% | |Ted Noseworthy 85 1.5% ||

| |Judy Manning 1,751 30.5% || |Sherry Gambin-Walsh 3,789 66.0% | |Peter Beck 197 3.4% | | || |Felix Collins† |}

Eastern Newfoundland

|- 57.80% turnout | |Glen Little 1,436 27.0% || |Neil King 3,504 65.8% | |Adrian Power 116 2.2% | |Johanna Ryan Guy (Ind.) 269 5.1% || |Glen Little Bonavista South |- 53.60% turnout | |Terence Fleming 441 8.8% || |Carol Anne Haley 3,962 79.4% | |Ambrose Penton 590 11.8% | | || |Darin King† Grand Bank |- 59.10% turnout 1,931 33.7% 3,645 63.7% 146 2.6% || |Calvin Peach Bellevue

Central Newfoundland

|- 55.90% turnout | |Kevin Pollard 2,197 39.4% || |Brian Warr 3,130 56.1% | |Matt Howse 253 4.5% | | || |Kevin Pollard Baie Verte-Springdale |- 56.16% turnout | |Clayton Forsey 2,489 47.0% || |Jerry Dean 2,654 50.2% | |Bridget Henley 148 2.8% | | ||

| |Eli Cross 1,387 27.6% || |Derrick Bragg 3,516 69.9% | |Rebecca Stuckey 128 2.5% | | || |Eli Cross Bonavista North |- 47.40% turnout | |Ryan Menchion 351 7.5% || |John Haggie 3,151 67.7% | |Lukas Norman 1,152 24.8% | | |

| |Bill Carter 1,405 37.7% | |Mildred Skinner 494 13.2% | | ||

Western Newfoundland

|- 57.73% turnout | |Georgia Darmonkow 93 2.2% || |Andrew Parsons 3,998 96.5% | |Kelly McKeown 53 1.3% | | ||

| |Ronald Jesseau 564 10.3% || |Eddie Joyce 4,622 84.5% | |Conor Curtis 282 5.2% | | || |Eddie Joyce Bay of Islands |- 52.65% turnout | |Ford Mitchelmore 404 8.3% || |Chris Mitchelmore 4,359 89.3% | |Genevieve Brouillette 117 2.4% | | || |Chris Mitchelmore The Straits-White Bay North |- 49.68% turnout | |Greg Osmond 708 15.2% || |Scott Reid 3,618 77.5% | |Shane Snook 341 7.3% | | || |Scott Reid St. George's-Stephenville East |- 51.24% turnout | |Tony Cornect 1,273 25.3% || |John Finn 3,262 64.8% | |Bernice Hancock 499 9.9% | | || |Tony Cornect Port au Port |}

Labrador

|- 49.30% turnout | |Jason MacKenzie 48 3.2% || |Lisa Dempster 1,405 93.0% | |Jennifer Deon 57 3.8% | | ||

| |Nick McGrath 712 21.5% || |Graham Letto 1,453 43.8% | |Ron Barron 1,152 34.7% | | ||

| |Keith Russell 850 28.6% || |Perry Trimper 1,840 62.0% | |Arlene Michelin-Pittman 280 9.4% | | || |Keith Russell (politician)|Keith Russell |- 39.50% turnout | |Sharon Vokey 23 2.7% || |Randy Edmunds 779 92.6% | |Mark Sharkey 39 4.6% | | || |Randy Edmunds |}

Preliminary results as of 1 December 2015.

MHAs not running again

Progressive Conservative

• Felix Collins, Placentia—St. Mary's
• John Dinn, Kilbride
• Vaughn Granter, Humber West
• Tom Hedderson, Harbour Main
• Ray Hunter, Grand Falls-Windsor-Green Bay South
• Clyde Jackman, Burin-Placentia West
• Darin King, Grand Bank
• Susan Sullivan, Grand Falls-Windsor-Buchans
• Wade Verge, Lewisporte
• Ross Wiseman, Trinity North

Liberal

• Jim Bennett, St. Barbe
• Stelman Flynn, Humber East
• Sam Slade, Carbonear-Harbour Grace

New Democratic Party

• George Murphy, St. John's East

Opinion polls

References

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