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2014 United States Senate election in Oregon

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2014 United States Senate election in Oregon
Summary

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FieldValue
election_name2014 United States Senate election in Oregon
countryOregon
typepresidential
ongoingno
previous_election2008 United States Senate election in Oregon
previous_year2008
next_election2020 United States Senate election in Oregon
next_year2020
election_dateNovember 4, 2014
image_size150x150px
image1File:Merkley official photo (cropped).jpg
nominee1Jeff Merkley
party1Democratic Party (United States)
popular_vote1814,537
percentage155.73%
image2File: Dr. Monica Wehby (cropped).jpg
nominee2Monica Wehby
party2Republican Party (United States)
popular_vote2538,847
percentage236.87%
map_image2014 United States Senate election in Oregon results map by county.svg
map_size260px
map_captionCounty results
Merkley:
Wehby:
titleU.S. Senator
before_electionJeff Merkley
before_partyDemocratic Party (United States)
after_electionJeff Merkley
after_partyDemocratic Party (United States)

Merkley:
Wehby:
The 2014 United States Senate election in Oregon took place on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Oregon, concurrently with the election of the Governor of Oregon, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Democratic Senator Jeff Merkley successfully ran for reelection to a second term. Despite the national midterm climate being a strong one for Republicans, this was actually a stronger Senate election for him in terms of margin of victory, winning by almost 20% and carrying nine additional counties he had lost in 2008. Primary elections were held on May 20, 2014. Merkley easily won the Democratic nomination, while the Republicans nominated pediatric neurosurgeon Monica Wehby. Initially, the race was considered potentially competitive, but Wehby's campaign began to collapse after she faced multiple allegations of stalking and harassment from former partners, and was found to have plagiarized portions of her campaign website.

Background

Democrat Jeff Merkley, the Speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives, had narrowly defeated two-term Republican incumbent Gordon H. Smith with 49% of the vote in 2008.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

  • William Bryk, attorney from New York and perennial candidate
  • Pavel Goberman, fitness instructor and perennial candidate
  • Jeff Merkley, incumbent senator

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Mark Callahan, information technology consultant and perennial candidate
  • Jason Conger, state representative
  • Tim Crawley, attorney
  • Jo Rae Perkins, former Chairwoman of the Linn County Republican Party and candidate for Mayor of Albany in 2010
  • Monica Wehby, pediatric neurosurgeon

Withdrew

  • Sam Carpenter, businessman

Declined

  • Bruce Hanna, state representative
  • Rick Miller, owner and founder of Avamere
  • Gordon H. Smith, former U.S. Senator
  • Greg Walden, U.S. Representative and Chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee

Endorsements

Individuals

  • Rick Santorum, former U.S. Representative and former U.S. Senator (R-PA) and candidate for president in 2012

Organizations

  • Oregon Right to Life

Newspapers

  • Statesman Journal
  • Willamette Week

Individuals

  • Ben Carson, retired surgeon and conservative activist
  • Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the United States House of Representatives
  • Mitt Romney, former governor of Massachusetts and nominee for President in 2012

Newspapers

  • The Oregonian

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorMark
CallahanJason
CongerTim
CrawleyJo Rae
PerkinsMonica
WehbyUndecided
Benenson Strategy GroupApril 14–17, 2014410± ?—24%——22%55%
Wenzel StrategiesMay 1–4, 2014607± ?4%22%3%3%43%26%
Public Opinion StrategiesMay 12–13, 2014500± 4.38%2%24%2%2%41%26%

Results

Results by county:

| | | | | | ]]

Independents

The filing deadline for independent candidates is August 26, 2014. In order to qualify, a candidate must submit 17,893 signatures of registered voters or obtain signatures from at least 1,000 electors at a valid assembly of electors.

Candidates

Declared

  • Karl King, massage therapist

General election

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political ReportNovember 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political ReportNovember 3, 2014
Real Clear PoliticsNovember 3, 2014

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorJeff
Merkley (D)Monica
Wehby (R)OtherUndecided
Harper PollingApril 1–2, 2014670± 3.91%46%34%—20%
Benenson Strategy GroupApril 14–17, 2014600± 4%52%32%—16%
Rasmussen ReportsMay 21–22, 2014750± 4%47%37%5%11%
Public Policy PollingMay 22–27, 2014956± 3.2%50%36%—15%
The Tarrance Group*June 1–3, 2014615± 4.1%41%39%9%11%
SurveyUSAJune 5–9, 2014560± 4.2%50%32%9%9%
CBS News/NYT/YouGovJuly 5–24, 20142,088± 2.6%53%39%1%7%
SurveyUSAAugust 1–5, 2014564± 4.2%52%33%7%9%
Moore Information^August 5–9, 2014500± 4%47%38%—16%
CBS News/NYT/YouGovAugust 18 – September 2, 20141,541± 4%51%39%1%9%
Rasmussen ReportsSeptember 2–3, 2014750± 4%48%35%5%12%
Polling Company/WomanTrendSeptember 9–11, 2014600± 4%42%34%7%14%
SurveyUSASeptember 22–24, 2014568± 4.2%52%32%8%8%
CBS News/NYT/YouGovSeptember 20 – October 1, 20141,508± 3%52%39%1%8%
DHM ResearchOctober 2014?± 4.3%47%26%6%19%
SurveyUSAOctober 16–19, 2014561± 4.2%53%32%7%8%
CBS News/NYT/YouGovOctober 16–23, 20141,421± 4%51%39%1%9%
SurveyUSAOctober 23–27, 2014552± 4.3%53%32%8%6%
Elway ResearchOctober 26–27, 2014403± 5%49%30%3%18%
  • ^ Internal poll for Dennis Richardson campaign
    • Internal poll for Monica Wehby campaign
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorJeff
Merkley (D)Allen
Alley (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingJune 21–24, 2012686± 3.7%43%37%—20%
Public Policy PollingDecember 3–5, 2012614± 4%53%36%—12%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorJeff
Merkley (D)Jason
Atkinson (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingJune 21–24, 2012686± 3.7%43%34%—23%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorJeff
Merkley (D)Jason
Conger (R)OtherUndecided
Harper PollingApril 1–2, 2014670± 3.91%47%40%—12%
Benenson Strategy GroupApril 14–17, 2014600± 4%50%34%—16%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorJeff
Merkley (D)Bruce
Hanna (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingJune 21–24, 2012686± 3.7%43%35%—23%
Public Policy PollingDecember 3–5, 2012614± 4%52%34%—14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorJeff
Merkley (D)Gordon
Smith (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingDecember 3–5, 2012614± 4%47%43%—10%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorJeff
Merkley (D)Bruce
Starr (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingDecember 3–5, 2012614± 4%52%32%—16%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorJeff
Merkley (D)Greg
Walden (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingJune 21–24, 2012686± 3.7%40%42%—18%
Public Policy PollingDecember 3–5, 2012614± 4%47%42%—11%

Results

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

  • Clackamas (largest city: Lake Oswego)
  • Coos (largest city: Coos Bay)
  • Deschutes (largest city: Bend)
  • Jackson (largest city: Medford)
  • Marion (largest city: Salem)
  • Tillamook (largest city: Tillamook)
  • Polk (largest city: Salem)
  • Yamhill (largest city: McMinnville)

References

References

  1. Pope, Charles. (April 16, 2012). "Oregon's Jeff Merkley raises money early to fight Senate opponents in 2014". The Oregonian.
  2. (November 4, 2014). "Sen. Jeff Merkley decisively defeats Monica Wehby".
  3. Jaquiss, Nigel. (March 6, 2014). "New Yorker Files to Run Against Merkley In May Primary". [[Willamette Week]].
  4. Joanna Evoniuk and Scott Reynolds. (September 13, 2013). "Four Challenge Merkley's U.S. Senate Seat For 2014 Election". Lane Today.
  5. "May 20, 2014 Primary Election Abstract of Votes: United States Senator". Oregon Secretary of State.
  6. Mapes, Jeff. (October 10, 2013). "Jason Conger sets U.S. Senate announcement for Tuesday in Oregon City and Bend". Oregon Live.
  7. Mapes, Jeff. (November 4, 2013). "GOP hits Jeff Merkley on Obamacare as new Republican enters Senate race: Oregon politics today". [[The Oregonian]].
  8. McInally, Mike. (August 16, 2013). "Jo Rae Perkins of Albany announces bid for U.S. Senate". [[Albany Democrat-Herald]].
  9. Gaston, Christian. (October 29, 2013). "Portland doctor Monica Wehby will seek to unseat Democrat Jeff Merkley". [[The Oregonian]].
  10. Mapes, Jeff. (November 4, 2013). "Sam Carpenter drops out of GOP primary for U.S. Senate race in favor of Jason Conger". [[The Oregonian]].
  11. (September 20, 2013). "Bruce Hanna decides not to run for re-election -- or, for now, another seat: Oregon politics today". Oregon Live.
  12. Mapes, Jeff. (November 29, 2012). "Is Senate GOP trying to recruit a challenger to Jeff Merkley through news media?". The Oregonian.
  13. (August 6, 2012). "Gordon Smith finds happiness in private sector, has no plans to seek office". Oregon Live.
  14. (November 14, 2012). "Republicans Pick Walden as New NRCC Chairman". Roll Call.
  15. (May 14, 2014). "Rick Santorum endorses Jason Conger, praising his opposition to gay marriage and abortion". Oregon Live.
  16. (May 10, 2014). "Conger best Republican to take on Merkley". [[Statesman Journal]].
  17. (April 30, 2014). "U.S. Senate Jason Conger Republican Primary". [[Willamette Week]].
  18. (April 29, 2014). "Newt Gingrich provides Monica Wehby with another out-of-state endorsement in Senate race". OregonLive.com.
  19. "Mitt Romney joins national GOP figures in endorsing Monica Wehby in Oregon Senate race". OregonLive.com.
  20. (April 26, 2014). "Oregon's Republicans should vote for Monica Wehby: Editorial endorsement".
  21. [https://images.politico.com/global/2014/04/22/april_merkley_sor_memo_.html Benenson Strategy Group]
  22. [http://oregoncatalyst.com/27411-oregon-senate-poll-results.html Wenzel Strategies]
  23. [https://web.archive.org/web/20140516174205/http://www.weeklystandard.com/sites/all/files/docs/Wehby%20memo.pdf Public Opinion Strategies]
  24. "Ballot access requirements for political candidates in Oregon". Ballotpedia.
  25. Reynolds, Scott. (January 31, 2014). "U.S. Senate Candidate Profile: Karl King". Lane Today.
  26. "2014 Senate Race Ratings for November 3, 2014".
  27. "The Crystal Ball's Final 2014 Picks".
  28. "2014 Senate Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report.
  29. "2014 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2014". Real Clear Politics.
  30. [http://www.harperpolling.com/polls/oregon-poll-too-close-for-comfort Harper Polling]
  31. [http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2014/oregon/election_2014_oregon_senate Rasmussen Reports]
  32. [http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_OR_529.pdf Public Policy Polling]
  33. [http://media.oregonlive.com/mapes/other/Wehbypollmemo.pdf The Tarrance Group*]
  34. Karl King (I) 5%, Mike Montchalin (L) 4%
  35. [http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=005a915d-93f5-4dc8-b982-324b58e9eaa7 SurveyUSA]
  36. [https://www.cbsnews.com/news/2014-midterms-republicans-narrowly-favored-to-capture-senate-in-november/ CBS News/NYT/YouGov]
  37. [http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=83bebf2b-2c57-4fdd-932b-8378d93d5eb3 SurveyUSA]
  38. [http://www.oregonlive.com/mapes/index.ssf/2014/08/dennis_richardson_poll_says_he.html#incart_river Moore Information^]
  39. [https://today.yougov.com/news/2014/09/07/battleground-tracker-2014-oregon/ CBS News/NYT/YouGov]
  40. [https://www.scribd.com/doc/239974928/OR-Sen-Polling-Company-Sept-2014 Polling Company/WomanTrend]
  41. Christina Lugo (G) 4%, Mike Montchalin (L) 3%
  42. [http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=a2828710-8eac-4663-973d-3912ca87f337 SurveyUSA]
  43. [http://today.yougov.com/news/2014/09/07/senate-races-battleground-tracker/ CBS News/NYT/YouGov]
  44. [http://www.opb.org/news/article/poll-shows-both-statewide-races-swinging-toward-incumbents/ DHM Research]
  45. [http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=9b06ee8f-0665-4c61-87b9-e3d8fa4cb91c SurveyUSA]
  46. [http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=75ff4fa8-60ee-470b-af50-0934993b283d SurveyUSA]
  47. [http://www.oregonlive.com/mapes/index.ssf/2014/10/jeff_merkley_leads_poll_monica.html Elway Research]
  48. Christina Lugo (G) 1%, Mike Montchalin (L) 2%
  49. [http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_OR_062712.pdf Public Policy Polling]
  50. [http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_OR_12712.pdf Public Policy Polling]
  51. "November 4, 2014, General Election, Official Abstract of Votes: US Senator". Oregon Secretary of State.
Wikipedia Source

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