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2014 United States Senate election in Iowa

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2014 United States Senate election in Iowa

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FieldValue
election_name2014 United States Senate election in Iowa
countryIowa
flag_imageFlag of Iowa (xrmap collection).svg
typepresidential
ongoingno
previous_election2008 United States Senate election in Iowa
previous_year2008
next_election2020 United States Senate election in Iowa
next_year2020
election_dateNovember 4, 2014
image_sizex150px
image2File:Bruce Braley official 110th Congress photo portrait (cropped).jpg
nominee2Bruce Braley
party2Democratic Party (United States)
popular_vote2494,370
percentage243.76%
image1File:Joni Ernst Official photo portrait 114th Congress (cropped).jpg
nominee1Joni Ernst
party1Republican Party (United States)
popular_vote1588,575
percentage152.10%
map_image
map_captionErnst:
Braley:
Tie:
titleU.S. Senator
before_electionTom Harkin
before_partyDemocratic Party (United States)
after_electionJoni Ernst
after_partyRepublican Party (United States)

Braley:
Tie: The 2014 United States Senate election in Iowa was held on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Democratic Senator Tom Harkin did not run for reelection to a sixth term in office.

U.S. Representative Bruce Braley was unopposed for the Democratic nomination; the Republicans nominated State Senator Joni Ernst in a June 3 primary election. Douglas Butzier, who was the Libertarian nominee, died on October 14 in a single engine plane crash near Key West, Iowa. He was the pilot and the only person aboard the plane. He still appeared on the ballot, alongside Independents Bob Quast, Ruth Smith and Rick Stewart. Ernst defeated Braley in the general election. This was the first open Senate seat in Iowa since 1974. Ernst was the first Republican to win this seat since Roger Jepsen in 1978. Joni Ernst's inauguration marked the first time since 1985 where Republicans held both United States Senate seats from Iowa.

Democratic primary

Bruce Braley ultimately faced no opposition in his primary campaign and became the Democratic nominee on June 3, 2014.

Candidates

Declared

  • Bruce Braley, U.S. Representative from

Withdrew

  • Bob Quast, businessman (running as an independent)

Declined

  • Chet Culver, former Governor of Iowa
  • Jeff Danielson, state senator
  • Tom Harkin, incumbent U.S. Senator
  • Dave Loebsack, U.S. Representative from (ran for re-election)
  • Kevin McCarthy, Minority Leader of the Iowa House of Representatives
  • Christie Vilsack, former First Lady of Iowa and nominee for Iowa's 4th congressional district in 2012
  • Tom Vilsack, United States Secretary of Agriculture and former Governor of Iowa

Endorsements

Federal politicians

  • Leonard Boswell, former U.S. Representative
  • Bill Clinton, 42nd President of the United States
  • Hillary Clinton, 67th United States Secretary of State, 2008 presidential candidate, then-potential 2016 presidential candidate
  • Tom Harkin, incumbent U.S. Senator
  • Dave Loebsack, U.S. Representative

Statewide politicians

  • Chet Culver, former Governor of Iowa
  • Michael Fitzgerald, Iowa State Treasurer
  • Tom Miller, Iowa Attorney General

State legislators

  • Ako Abdul-Samad, state representative
  • Marti Anderson, state representative
  • Daryl Beall, state senator
  • Bruce Bearinger, state representative
  • Deborah Berry, state representative
  • Dennis Black, state senator
  • Joe Bolkcom, state senator
  • Tod Bowman, state senator
  • Chris Brase, state senator
  • Dennis Cohoon, state representative
  • Thomas G. Courtney, state senator
  • Jeff Danielson, state senator
  • David Dawson, state representative
  • Dick Dearden, state senator
  • Bill Dotzler, state senator
  • Nancy Dunkel, state representative
  • Robert Dvorsky, state senator
  • John Forbes, state representative
  • Ruth Ann Gaines, state representative
  • Mary Gaskill, state representative
  • Michael Gronstal, Majority Leader of the Iowa Senate and Chairman of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee
  • Chris Hall, state representative
  • Curt Hanson, state representative
  • Rita Hart, state senator
  • Jack Hatch, state senator
  • Lisa Heddens, state representative
  • Rob Hogg, state senator
  • Wally Horn, state senator
  • Bruce Hunter, state representative
  • Charles Isenhart, state representative
  • David Jacoby, state representative
  • Pam Jochum, President of the Iowa Senate
  • Anesa Kajtazovic, state representative
  • Jerry Kearns, state representative
  • Dan Kelley, state representative
  • Bob Kressig, state representative
  • Vicki Lensing, state representative
  • Daniel Lundby, state representative
  • Jim Lykam, state representative
  • Mary Mascher, state representative
  • Liz Mathis, state senator
  • Matt McCoy, state senator
  • Helen Miller, state representative
  • Dan Muhlbauer, state representative
  • Jo Oldson, state representative
  • Rick Olson, state representative
  • Tyler Olson, state representative
  • Scott Ourth, state representative
  • Janet Petersen, state senator
  • Todd Prichard, state representative
  • Herman Quirmbach, state senator
  • Amanda Ragan, state senator
  • Joe Riding, state representative
  • Patti Ruff, state representative
  • Kirsten Running-Marquardt, state representative
  • Brian Schoenjahn, state senator
  • Joe Seng, state senator
  • Mark Smith, state representative
  • Steve Sodders, President Pro Tempore of the Iowa Senate
  • Art Staed, state representative
  • Sharon S. Steckman, state representative
  • Sally Stutsman, state representative
  • Rich Taylor, state senator
  • Todd Taylor, state representative
  • Phyllis Thede, state representative
  • Roger Thomas, state representative
  • Beth Wessel-Kroeschell, state representative
  • Mary Jo Wilhelm, state senator
  • Cindy Winckler, state representative
  • Mary Wolfe, state representative
  • Frank Wood, state representative

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorBrad
AndersonBruce
BraleyKevin
McCarthyUndecided
Harper PollingJanuary 29, 2013??3.83%49.73%3.83%42.62%

Results

Republican primary

The Republican primary was held on June 3, 2014. If no candidate won more than 35% of the vote, the nominee would have been chosen at a statewide convention. It would have been only the second time in 50 years that a convention picked a nominee and the first time since 2002, when then-State Senator Steve King won a convention held in Iowa's 5th congressional district to decide the Republican nominee for Congress. Having the nominee chosen by a convention led to fears that the increasingly powerful Ron Paul faction of the state party, led by Party Chairman A. J. Spiker, could have nominated an unelectable candidate.

The convention was scheduled to be held on June 14 but was then moved to July 12. Republican leaders, including Governor Terry Branstad and U.S. Senator Chuck Grassley, as well as four of the candidates for the nomination, criticized the move. Candidates Sam Clovis, Joni Ernst, Matthew Whitaker and David Young signed a letter to the Republican Party of Iowa asking them to move the convention date back, saying that "Essentially gifting [Bruce] Braley an additional 30 days to campaign in a vacuum, while reducing our nominee's time to raise funds and campaign as the general election candidate by an entire month – only serves to strengthen Braley's viability". Spiker responded that the move was necessary to accommodate the 27-day period that the Iowa Secretary of State's office requires to certify the results of the primary. Spiker reiterated his position in September 2013, rejecting calls for a vote by the central committee to move the convention date. He said that nominating a candidate before the primary had been certified would break state law, "which outlines that a ballot vacancy does not exist until the canvass is completed and certified."

Secretary of State Matt Schultz was highly critical of Spiker, saying that "no political party should use the excuse of the final date of the statewide canvass to determine the date of its special nominating convention. Furthermore, to state that it is necessary to hold a special nominating convention after the conclusion of the state canvass is not only misleading, it is false." Following efforts by members of the central committee to call a special meeting to move the date back to June, Spiker agreed and a meeting was held on September 23. The central committee voted 16–1 to move the convention date back to June 14. Statewide Republican leaders and activists and members of the National Republican Senatorial Committee believe that the real reason for the attempt to delay the convention was to give the Ron Paul faction time to organize an insurgent effort to push through a candidate they support, which could have even been Spiker himself or State Party Co-chair David Fischer. The infighting has been traced back to the failure of the NRSC and allies of Governor Branstad and Senator Grassley to recruit a "top-tier" candidate for the race.

Ernst received widespread attention for a campaign ad she released in March 2014 where she employed a tongue-in-cheek comparison between her experience castrating pigs and her ability to cut "pork" in Congress. Many found the ad to be humorous and it was spoofed by late-night comedians including Jimmy Fallon and Stephen Colbert, while some found it to be in bad taste. Before the ad aired, Ernst had struggled in fundraising, and two polls of the Republican primary taken in February 2014 had shown her in second place, several points behind opponent Mark Jacobs. After it aired, a Suffolk University poll in early April showed her with a narrow lead and a Loras College poll showed her essentially tied with Jacobs. By May, she was being described by the media as the "strong front-runner".

In May 2014, Roll Call reported that the Republican primary campaign had become a proxy for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination, with Mitt Romney and Marco Rubio supporting Ernst, Rick Perry endorsing Whitaker and Rick Santorum backing Clovis. Jacobs, who had no such high-profile endorsements, ran as the "outsider".

Ultimately, Ernst won the primary with 56% of the vote, negating the need for a convention.

Candidates

Declared

  • Sam Clovis, radio host
  • Joni Ernst, state senator
  • Mark Jacobs, former CEO of Reliant Energy
  • Scott Schaben, businessman
  • Matthew Whitaker, former U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of Iowa and nominee for Treasurer of Iowa in 2002

Withdrew

  • Paul Lunde, attorney and nominee for Iowa's 4th congressional district in 1988 and 1992
  • David Young, former Chief of Staff to U.S. Senator Chuck Grassley (ran for U.S. House)

Declined

  • Terry Branstad, Governor of Iowa
  • Bob Brownell, Polk County Supervisor
  • Steve Deace, radio talk show host
  • Bill Dix, Minority Leader of the Iowa Senate
  • David Fischer, Co-chair of the Republican Party of Iowa
  • Steve Gaer, Mayor of West Des Moines
  • Drew Ivers, Finance Chairman of the Republican Party of Iowa
  • Steve King, U.S. Representative from
  • Ron Langston, businessman and former director of the Minority Business Development Agency
  • Tom Latham, U.S. Representative
  • Bill Northey, Iowa Secretary of Agriculture
  • Kevin O'Brien, McDonald's store owner and operator
  • Kim Reynolds, Lieutenant Governor of Iowa
  • Rod Roberts, Director of the Iowa Department of Inspections and Appeals and candidate for governor in 2010
  • Matt Schultz, Iowa Secretary of State
  • A. J. Spiker, Chairman of the Republican Party of Iowa
  • Matt Strawn, former chairman of the Republican Party of Iowa
  • Bob Vander Plaats, social conservative activist, candidate for governor in 2002, 2006 and 2010 and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2006
  • David A. Vaudt, chairman of the Governmental Accounting Standards Board and former state auditor of Iowa
  • Stuart Weinstein, orthopaedic surgeon, President of the American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons
  • Brad Zaun, state senator

Endorsements

Individuals

  • Terry Amann, Pastor at Walnut Creek Church
  • Dorie Day, widow of Colonel Bud Day
  • Steve Deace, radio talk show host
  • Louie Gohmert, U.S. Representative (TX-01)
  • Rick Santorum, former U.S. Representative and former U.S. Senator (PA) and candidate for president in 2012
  • Phyllis Schlafly, conservative activist and founder of the Eagle Forum
  • Bob Vander Plaats, social conservative activist, candidate for governor in 2002, 2006 and 2010 and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2006

Organizations

  • Citizens United
  • Eagle Forum
  • Gun Owners of America
  • Tea Party Patriots

National figures

  • George H. W. Bush, 41st President of the United States
  • Deb Fischer, U.S. Senator (NE)
  • Sarah Palin, former Alaska governor, 2008 Republican vice-presidential candidate
  • Michael Reagan, son of Ronald Reagan
  • Mitt Romney, former governor of Massachusetts and 2012 Republican presidential nominee
  • Marco Rubio, U.S. Senator (FL)
  • Kay Orr, former governor of Nebraska

Statewide politicians

  • Kim Reynolds, Lieutenant Governor of Iowa

State legislators

  • Rich Anderson, former state representative
  • Robert Bacon, state representative
  • Clel Baudler, state representative
  • Nancy Boettger, state senator
  • Mark Brandenburg, state representative
  • Mark Costello, state representative
  • Cecil Dolecheck, state representative
  • Dean Fisher, state representative
  • Shawn Hamerlinck, former state senator
  • Megan Hess, state representative
  • Hubert Houser, state senator
  • David Johnson, state senator
  • Tim Kapucian, state senator
  • Renee Schulte, former state representative
  • Amy Sinclair, state senator
  • Rob Taylor, state representative
  • Dan Zumbach, state senator

Local officials

  • Chad Airhart, Dallas County Recorder
  • Jon McAvoy, Adel City Councilman
  • Isaiah McGee, Waukee City Councilman
  • Carol Robertson, Mills County Auditor
  • Renee Twedt, Story County Treasurer

Organizations

  • Right Now Women PAC
  • Senate Conservatives Fund
  • ShePAC
  • United States Chamber of Commerce
  • VOICES of Conservative Women

Individuals

  • Bill Northey, Iowa Secretary of Agriculture

  • Brad Banks, former Iowa Hawkeyes quarterback

  • Robert Brownell, Polk County Supervisor

  • Scott Cirksena, Mayor of Clive

  • Creighton Cox, Urbandale City Councilman

  • Greg Ganske, former U.S. Representative

  • Bill Gustoff, Republican State Central Committee Member

  • Chris Hagenow, state representative

  • Kevin Koester, state representative

  • Matt Mead, Governor of Wyoming

  • John Mickelson, West Des Moines City Councilman

  • Rick Perry, Governor of Texas and candidate for President in 2012

  • Jim Peters, Mayor of Adel

  • Ralph Watts, state representative

  • Jack Whitver, state senator

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorSam
ClovisJoni
ErnstMark
JacobsPaul
LundeScott
SchabenMatthew
WhitakerOtherUndecided
Hill Research Consultants*February 12–13, 2014300± 4%6%11%22%——8%3%50%
Public Policy PollingFebruary 20–23, 2014283± 5.8%8%13%20%3%3%11%—42%
Suffolk UniversityApril 3–8, 2014224± 6.55%6.7%25%22.77%—1.34%4.02%—40.18%
Loras CollegeApril 7–8, 2014600± 4%7.3%18.1%18.8%—3.5%4%—48.2%
Harper Polling^April 30 – May 1, 2014500± 4.38%14%33%23%—1%3%—26%
Loras CollegeMay 12–13, 2014600± 4%9.5%30.8%19.3%—2.3%7.3%—30.7%
Public Policy PollingMay 15–19, 2014303± ?14%34%18%2%1%6%—26%
Des Moines RegisterMay 27–30, 2014400± 4.9%11%36%18%—2%13%—16%
  • ^ Internal poll for Joni Ernst campaign
    • Internal poll for Mark Jacobs campaign
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorSam
ClovisJoni
ErnstMark
JacobsPaul
LundeScott
ShabenBob
Vander PlaatsMatthew
WhitakerDavid
YoungUndecided
The Polling CompanyNovember 22–23, 2013400± 4.9%8%8%5%1%1%28%7%4%39%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorDrew
IversSteve
KingTom
LathamBill
NortheyKim
ReynoldsMatt
SchultzBob
Vander PlaatsDavid
VaudtBrad
ZaunUndecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 1–3, 2013326± 5.4%—41%22%—10%—9%——17%
—42%23%———19%——15%
—50%27%——————23%
Wenzel StrategiesFebruary 1–2, 2013800± 3.44%—34.3%18.7%3.2%9.8%1.4%9.2%0.5%—19.5%
—42.9%34.7%——————22.4%
Harper PollingJanuary 29, 20124.52%31.16%26.13%———16.08%—6.03%16.08%
—35.35%21.72%———19.70%—3.03%20.20%
—46%29%——————25%

Results

Results by county:

| | | | | | | | | | | | ]]

General election

Endorsements

Federal politicians

  • Leonard Boswell, former U.S. Representative (IA)
  • Bill Clinton, 42nd President of the United States
  • Hillary Clinton, 67th United States Secretary of State, 2008 presidential candidate, then-potential 2016 presidential candidate
  • Tom Harkin, incumbent U.S. Senator (IA)
  • Dave Loebsack, U.S. Representative (IA)

Statewide politicians

  • Chet Culver, former Governor of Iowa
  • Michael Fitzgerald, Iowa State Treasurer
  • Tom Miller, Iowa Attorney General Organizations
  • NARAL Pro-Choice America

State legislators

  • Ako Abdul-Samad, state representative
  • Marti Anderson, state representative
  • Daryl Beall, state senator
  • Bruce Bearinger, state representative
  • Deborah Berry, state representative
  • Dennis Black, state senator
  • Joe Bolkcom, state senator
  • Tod Bowman, state senator
  • Chris Brase, state senator
  • Dennis Cohoon, state representative
  • Thomas G. Courtney, state senator
  • Jeff Danielson, state senator
  • David Dawson, state representative
  • Dick Dearden, state senator
  • Bill Dotzler, state senator
  • Nancy Dunkel, state representative
  • Robert Dvorsky, state senator
  • John Forbes, state representative
  • Ruth Ann Gaines, state representative
  • Mary Gaskill, state representative
  • Michael Gronstal, Majority Leader of the Iowa Senate and Chairman of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee
  • Chris Hall, state representative
  • Curtis Hanson, state representative
  • Rita Hart, state senator
  • Jack Hatch, state senator
  • Lisa Heddens, state representative
  • Rob Hogg, state senator
  • Wally Horn, state senator
  • Bruce Hunter, state representative
  • Charles Isenhart, state representative
  • David Jacoby, state representative
  • Pam Jochum, President of the Iowa Senate
  • Anesa Kajtazovic, state representative
  • Jerry Kearns, state representative
  • Dan Kelley, state representative
  • Bob Kressig, state representative
  • Vicki Lensing, state representative
  • Daniel Lundby, state representative
  • Jim Lykam, state representative
  • Mary Mascher, state representative
  • Liz Mathis, state senator
  • Matt McCoy, state senator
  • Helen Miller, state representative
  • Dan Muhlbauer, state representative
  • Jo Oldson, state representative
  • Rick Olson, state representative
  • Tyler Olson, state representative
  • Scott Ourth, state representative
  • Janet Petersen, state senator
  • Todd Prichard, state representative
  • Herman Quirmbach, state senator
  • Amanda Ragan, state senator
  • Joe Riding, state representative
  • Patti Ruff, state representative
  • Kirsten Running-Marquardt, state representative
  • Brian Schoenjahn, state senator
  • Joe Seng, state senator
  • Mark Smith, state representative
  • Steve Sodders, President Pro Tempore of the Iowa Senate
  • Art Staed, state representative
  • Sharon S. Steckman, state representative
  • Sally Stutsman, state representative
  • Rich Taylor, state senator
  • Todd Taylor, state representative
  • Phyllis Thede, state representative
  • Roger Thomas, state representative
  • Beth Wessel-Kroeschell, state representative
  • Mary Jo Wilhelm, state senator
  • Cindy Winckler, state representative
  • Mary Wolfe, state representative
  • Frank Wood, state representative

Debates

On August 29, Ernst and Braley announced their agreement to hold three televised debates in Davenport, Des Moines, and Sioux City, the first debate on September 28, the second on October 11, and the last on October 16.

Fundraising

CandidateRaisedSpentCash on Hand
Bruce Braley (D)$9,918,362$10,069,945$707,302
Joni Ernst (R)$9,206,690$7,660,912$2,244,366

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political ReportNovember 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political ReportNovember 3, 2014
Real Clear PoliticsNovember 3, 2014

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorBruce
Braley (D)Joni
Ernst (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingNovember 1–3, 20141,265± 2.8%45%48%2%5%
46%49%—5%
Quinnipiac UniversityOctober 28 – November 2, 2014778± 3.5%47%47%2%4%
Public Policy PollingOctober 30–31, 2014617± ?47%48%—5%
Selzer & Co/DesOctober 28–31, 2014701± 3.7%44%51%1%4%
YouGovOctober 25–31, 20141,112± 4.4%43%42%3%13%
Fox NewsOctober 28–30, 2014911± 3%44%45%4%8%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 28–30, 2014990± 3%47%48%3%3%
CNN/ORCOctober 27–30, 2014647 LV± 4%47%49%—4%
887 RV± 3.5%49%43%—7%
Reuters/IpsosOctober 23–29, 20141,129± 3.3%45%45%4%7%
QuinnipiacOctober 22–27, 2014817± 3.4%45%49%2%5%
Loras CollegeOctober 21–24, 20141,121± 2.93%45%44%2%8%
CBS News/NYT/YouGovOctober 16–23, 20142,322± 3%44%44%1%11%
NBC News/MaristOctober 18–22, 2014772 LV± 3.5%46%49%1%4%
1,052 RV± 3%46%46%2%6%
Gravis MarketingOctober 20–21, 2014964± 3%43%49%—8%
Monmouth UniversityOctober 18–21, 2014423± 4.8%46%47%5%2%
Quinnipiac UniversityOctober 15–21, 2014964± 3.2%46%48%3%4%
Public Policy PollingOctober 15–16, 2014714± ?%48%47%—5%
Suffolk UniversityOctober 11–14, 2014500± 4.4%43%47%2%7%
Quinnipiac UniversityOctober 8–13, 2014967± 3.2%45%47%3%5%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 8–10, 2014957± 3%45%48%1%5%
Selzer & Co/DesOctober 3–8, 20141,000± 3.1%46%47%3%4%
Morey GroupOctober 4–7, 20141,000± 3.1%39%38%2%21%
MagellanOctober 3, 20141,299± 2.8%41%50%—9%
Loras CollegeOctober 1–3, 2014600± 4%42%42%4%12%
NBC News/MaristSeptember 27 – October 1, 2014778 LV± 3.5%44%46%1%9%
1,093 RV± 3%45%44%1%11%
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerSeptember 25 – October 1, 20141,000± 2.09%44%45%11%
CBS News/NYT/YouGovSeptember 20 – October 1, 20142,359± 2%44%43%1%12%
Gravis MarketingSeptember 29–30, 2014522± 4%41%50%—10%
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerSeptember 25–30, 2014800± 3.46%47%46%—7%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 25–28, 20141,192± 2.8%42%44%4%10%
43%45%—12%
Harstad ResearchSeptember 21–25, 2014809± ?42%42%—16%
Selzer & Co/DesSeptember 21–24, 2014546± 4.2%38%44%6%12%
Rasmussen ReportsSeptember 17–18, 2014750± 4%43%43%4%14%
Fox NewsSeptember 14–16, 2014600± 4%41%41%6%12%
Quinnipiac UniversitySeptember 10–15, 20141,167± 2.9%44%50%1%4%
CNN/ORCSeptember 8–10, 2014608 LV± 4%49%48%1%2%
904 RV± 3.5%50%42%—7%
Loras CollegeSeptember 2–5, 20141,200± 2.82%45%41%—14%
CBS News/NYT/YouGovAugust 18 – September 2, 20141,764± 3%44%42%2%13%
Public Policy PollingAugust 28–30, 2014816± 3.4%43%45%—12%
SuffolkAugust 23–26, 2014500± 4%40%40%5%15%
Public Policy PollingAugust 22–24, 2014915± 3.2%41%40%5%14%
42%42%—16%
Rasmussen ReportsAugust 11–12, 2014750± 4%43%43%6%8%
CBS News/NYT/YouGovJuly 5–24, 20142,056± 2.7%45%46%2%8%
Gravis MarketingJuly 17–18, 20141,179± 3%44%43%—13%
NBC News/MaristJuly 7–13, 20141,599± 2.5%43%43%1%14%
Quinnipiac UniversityJune 12–16, 20141,277± 2.7%44%40%—16%
Vox Populi PollingJune 4–5, 2014665± 3.8%44%49%—7%
Loras CollegeJune 4–5, 2014600± 4%42%48%—10%
Rasmussen ReportsJune 4–5, 2014750± 4%44%45%3%9%
Public Policy PollingMay 15–19, 2014914± 3.3%45%39%—16%
Hickman AnalyticsApril 24–30, 2014500± 4.4%44%40%—16%
Suffolk UniversityApril 3–8, 2014800± 3.5%38%30%—33%
Rasmussen ReportsMarch 24–25, 2014750± 4%40%37%—23%
Quinnipiac UniversityMarch 5–10, 20141,411± 2.6%42%29%1%27%
Public Policy PollingFebruary 20–23, 2014869± 3.3%41%35%—23%
Quinnipiac UniversityDecember 10–15, 20131,617± 2.4%44%38%1%17%
Harper PollingNovember 23–24, 2013985± 3.12%42%36%—22%
Public Policy PollingJuly 5–7, 2013668± 3.8%45%33%—22%

with Braley

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorBruce
Braley (D)Mark
Jacobs (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingMay 15–19, 2014914± 3.3%42%36%—22%
Hickman AnalyticsApril 24–30, 2014500± 4.4%43%42%—15%
Magellan StrategiesApril 14–15, 2014808± 3.45%40%41%7%12%
Suffolk UniversityApril 3–8, 2014800± 3.5%37%31%—33%
Rasmussen ReportsMarch 24–25, 2014750± 4%41%38%—21%
Quinnipiac UniversityMarch 5–10, 20141,411± 2.6%40%31%1%28%
Public Policy PollingFebruary 20–23, 2014869± 3.3%41%35%—24%
Quinnipiac UniversityDecember 10–15, 20131,617± 2.4%46%37%1%16%
Harper PollingNovember 23–24, 2013985± 3.12%41%37%—22%
Public Policy PollingJuly 5–7, 2013668± 3.8%44%32%—24%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorBruce
Braley (D)Scott
Schaben (R)OtherUndecided
Suffolk UniversityApril 3–8, 2014800± 3.5%38%25%—38%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorBruce
Braley (D)Matthew
Whitaker (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingMay 15–19, 2014914± 3.3%43%36%—21%
Suffolk UniversityApril 3–8, 2014800± 3.5%38%27%—35%
Rasmussen ReportsMarch 24–25, 2014750± 4%40%36%—24%
Quinnipiac UniversityMarch 5–10, 20141,411± 2.6%42%30%1%26%
Public Policy PollingFebruary 20–23, 2014869± 3.3%40%34%—26%
Quinnipiac UniversityDecember 10–15, 20131,617± 2.4%43%40%1%17%
Harper PollingNovember 23–24, 2013985± 3.12%41%38%—22%
Public Policy PollingJuly 5–7, 2013668± 3.8%43%34%—23%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorBruce
Braley (D)Steve
King (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 1–3, 2013846± 3.4%49%38%—13%
Harper PollingJanuary 29, 2013523± 4.3%39%34%—27%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorBruce
Braley (D)Sam
Clovis (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingMay 15–19, 2014914± 3.3%43%34%—23%
Suffolk UniversityApril 3–8, 2014800± 3.5%38%25%—36%
Rasmussen ReportsMarch 24–25, 2014750± 4%44%31%—25%
Quinnipiac UniversityMarch 5–10, 20141,411± 2.6%42%27%1%29%
Public Policy PollingFebruary 20–23, 2014869± 3.3%42%34%—24%
Quinnipiac UniversityDecember 10–15, 20131,617± 2.4%45%34%1%20%
Harper PollingNovember 23–24, 2013985± 3.12%40%35%—25%
Public Policy PollingJuly 5–7, 2013668± 3.8%43%31%—25%
Public Policy PollingFebruary 1–3, 2013846± 3.4%49%38%—13%
Harper PollingJanuary 29, 2013523± 4.3%39%34%—27%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorBruce
Braley (D)Tom
Latham (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 1–3, 2013846± 3.4%44%41%—15%
Harper PollingJanuary 29, 2013523± 4.3%33%36%—31%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorBruce
Braley (D)Kim
Reynolds (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 1–3, 2013846± 3.4%44%37%—19%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorBruce
Braley (D)Bob
Vander Plaats (R)OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac UniversityDecember 10–15, 20131,617± 2.4%46%40%1%14%
Public Policy PollingFebruary 1–3, 2013846± 3.4%51%33%—16%
Harper PollingJanuary 29, 2013523± 4.3%41%26%—32%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorBruce
Braley (D)David
Young (R)OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac UniversityDecember 10–15, 20131,617± 2.4%44%36%1%19%
Harper PollingNovember 23–24, 2013985± 3.12%41%35%—24%
Public Policy PollingJuly 5–7, 2013668± 3.8%45%32%—24%

with Culver

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorChet
Culver (D)Steve
King (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 1–3, 2013846± 3.4%48%41%—11%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorChet
Culver (D)Tom
Latham (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 1–3, 2013846± 3.4%41%45%—13%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorChet
Culver (D)Kim
Reynolds (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 1–3, 2013846± 3.4%42%41%—17%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorChet
Culver (D)Bob
Vander Plaats (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 1–3, 2013846± 3.4%50%36%—14%

with Harkin

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorTom
Harkin (D)Terry
Branstad (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingMay 3–6, 20121,181± 2.85%46%41%—12%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorTom
Harkin (D)Steve
King (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingMay 3–6, 20121,181± 2.85%48%37%—15%
Public Policy PollingOctober 7–10, 2011749± 3.6%49%42%—9%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorTom
Harkin (D)Tom
Latham (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingMay 3–6, 20121,181± 2.85%46%37%—17%
Public Policy PollingOctober 7–10, 2011749± 3.6%45%42%—13%

with Loebsack

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorDave
Loebsack (D)Steve
King (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 1–3, 2013846± 3.4%47%40%—13%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorDave
Loebsack (D)Tom
Latham (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 1–3, 2013846± 3.4%40%43%—17%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorDave
Loebsack (D)Kim
Reynolds (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 1–3, 2013846± 3.4%41%39%—20%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorDave
Loebsack (D)Bob
Vander Plaats (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 1–3, 2013846± 3.4%49%34%—17%

with Vilsack

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorTom
Vilsack (D)Steve
King (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 1–3, 2013846± 3.4%49%39%—11%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorTom
Vilsack (D)Tom
Latham (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 1–3, 2013846± 3.4%46%42%—12%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorTom
Vilsack (D)Kim
Reynolds (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 1–3, 2013846± 3.4%46%38%—16%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorTom
Vilsack (D)Bob
Vander Plaats (R)OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 1–3, 2013846± 3.4%52%35%—14%

Results

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

  • Adair (Largest city: Greenfield)
  • Adams (Largest city: Corning)
  • Allamakee (Largest city: Waukon)
  • Appanoose (Largest city: Centerville)
  • Audubon (Largest city: Audubon)
  • Benton (largest city: Vinton)
  • Boone (largest city: Boone)
  • Bremer (Largest city: Waverly)
  • Buchanan (largest city: Independence)
  • Buena Vista (largest city: Storm Lake)
  • Butler (Largest city: Parkersburg)
  • Calhoun (Largest city: Rockwell City)
  • Carroll (Largest city: Carroll)
  • Cass (largest city: Atlantic)
  • Cedar (largest city: Tipton)
  • Cherokee (Largest city: Cherokee)
  • Chickasaw (largest city: New Hampton)
  • Clarke (largest city: Osceola)
  • Clay (Largest city: Spencer)
  • Clayton (largest city: Guttenberg)
  • Crawford (Largest city: Denison)
  • Dallas (Largest city: Waukee)
  • Davis (Largest city: Bloomfield)
  • Decatur (Largest city: Lamoni)
  • Delaware (Largest city: Manchester)
  • Dickinson (Largest city: Spirit Lake)
  • Emmet (Largest city: Estherville)
  • Fayette (Largest city: Oelwein)
  • Franklin (Largest city: Hampton)
  • Fremont (largest city: Sidney)
  • Greene (largest city: Jefferson)
  • Grundy (largest city: Grundy Center)
  • Guthrie (Largest city: Guthrie Center)
  • Hamilton (Largest city: Webster City)
  • Hancock (Largest city: Garner)
  • Hardin (Largest city: Iowa Falls)
  • Harrison (largest city: Missouri Valley)
  • Henry (Largest city: Mount Pleasant)
  • Humboldt (largest city: Humboldt)
  • Ida (largest city: Ida Grove)
  • Iowa (Largest city: Williamsburg)
  • Jackson (largest city: Maquoketa)
  • Jasper (Largest city: Newton)
  • Jones (largest city: Anamosa)
  • Keokuk (Largest city: Sigourney)
  • Kossuth (Largest city: Algona)
  • Louisa (largest city: Wapello)
  • Lucas (Largest city: Chariton)
  • Madison (Largest city: Winterset)
  • Mahaska (largest city: Oskaloosa)
  • Marion (largest city: Pella)
  • Marshall (Largest city: Marshalltown)
  • Mills (largest city: Glenwood)
  • Mitchell (largest city: Osage)
  • Monona (Largest city: Onawa)
  • Monroe (Largest city: Albia)
  • Montgomery (largest city: Red Oak)
  • Muscatine (largest city: Muscatine)
  • Palo Alto (Largest city: Emmetsburg)
  • Plymouth (largest city: Le Mars)
  • Pocahontas (Largest city: Pocahontas)
  • Pottawattamie (largest city: Council Bluffs)
  • Poweshiek (Largest city: Grinnell)
  • Ringgold (Largest city: Mount Ayr)
  • Sac (largest city: Sac City)
  • Scott (largest city: Davenport)
  • Shelby (largest city: Harlan)
  • Tama (largest city: Tama)
  • Taylor (Largest city: Bedford)
  • Union (Largest city: Creston)
  • Van Buren (Largest city: Keosauqua)
  • Wapello (largest city: Ottumwa)
  • Warren (Largest city: Indianola)
  • Washington (Largest city: Washington)
  • Wayne (Largest city: Corydon)
  • Webster (largest city: Fort Dodge)
  • Winnebago (largest city: Forest City)
  • Winneshiek (Largest city: Decorah)
  • Woodbury (Largest city: Sioux City)
  • Wright (Largest city: Eagle Grove)

By congressional district

Ernst won all four congressional districts, including one held by a Democrat.

DistrictErnstBraleyRepresentative
48.3%47.87%Rod Blum
48.91%47.06%Dave Loebsack
52.19%43.89%David Young
59.43%36.17%Steve King

References

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