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2012 United States Senate election in Wisconsin

none

Field	Value
election_name	2012 United States Senate election in Wisconsin
country	Wisconsin
type	presidential
ongoing	no
previous_election	2006 United States Senate election in Wisconsin
previous_year	2006
next_election	2018 United States Senate election in Wisconsin
next_year	2018
election_date	November 6, 2012
image_size	x150px
turnout	72.5% (voting eligible)
image1	File:Tammy Baldwin, official portrait, 113th Congress (1).jpg
nominee1	Tammy Baldwin
party1	Democratic Party (United States)
popular_vote1	1,547,104
percentage1	51.41%
image2	File:Tommy Thompson at Spotlight Health Aspen Ideas Festival 2015 (cropped).JPG
nominee2	Tommy Thompson
party2	Republican Party (United States)
popular_vote2	1,380,126
percentage2	45.86%
map_image
map_size	250px
map_caption	Baldwin:
Thompson:

title	U.S. Senator
before_election	Herb Kohl
before_party	Democratic Party (United States)
after_election	Tammy Baldwin
after_party	Democratic Party (United States)

Thompson:

The 2012 United States Senate election in Wisconsin took place on November 6, 2012, alongside a U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic Senator Herb Kohl retired instead of running for re-election to a fifth term. This was the first open Senate seat in Wisconsin since 1988, when Kohl won his first term.

Primary elections were held on August 14, 2012. Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin's 2nd congressional district ran unopposed in the Democratic primary. The Republican nominee was former Wisconsin Governor and U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Tommy Thompson, who won with a plurality in a four-way primary race. In the general election, Baldwin defeated Thompson and won the open seat. She became the first woman elected to represent Wisconsin in the Senate and the first openly gay U.S. senator in history. This is also the only time Thompson lost a statewide race.

Background

Incumbent Democratic senator Herb Kohl was re-elected to a fourth term in 2006, beating Republican attorney Robert Lorge by 67% to 30%. Kohl's lack of fundraising suggested his potential retirement. There was speculation that Kohl might decide to retire to allow Russ Feingold, who lost his re-election bid in 2010, to run again, although Mike Tate, chairman of the Wisconsin Democratic Party, dismissed speculation about Kohl's potential retirement. Ultimately, Kohl announced in May 2011 that he would not run for re-election in 2012.

Democratic primary

Despite speculation that Kohl would retire to make way for his former Senate colleague Russ Feingold, who had been unseated in 2010, Feingold chose not to enter the race. Other potential candidates also declined to run, leaving Baldwin unopposed in the Democratic primary.

Candidates

Declared

Tammy Baldwin, U.S. representative

Declined

Tom Barrett, mayor of Milwaukee
Kathleen Falk, former Dane County executive (1997–2011)
Russ Feingold, former U.S. senator
Steve Kagen, former U.S. representative for Wisconsin's 8th congressional district (2006–2011)
Ron Kind, U.S. representative for Wisconsin's 3rd congressional district
Herb Kohl, incumbent U.S. senator
Gwen Moore, U.S. representative for Wisconsin's 4th congressional district
Tim Sullivan, businessman

Polling

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Tammy
Baldwin	Jon
Erpenbach	Russ
Feingold	Kathleen
Falk	Steve
Kagen	Ron
Kind	Barbara
Lawton	Gwen
Moore	Other/
Undecided
Public Policy Polling	May 19–22, 2011	783	±3.5%	12%	5%		70%	1%	3%	4%	1%	2%	3%
	30%	13%	—	4%	17%	16%	3%	6%	12%
Magellan Strategies	July 12–13, 2011	627	±3.9%		46%	—	—	—	21%	—	—	—	33%
	41%	—	—	—	—	19%	—	—	40%
Public Policy Polling	August 12–14, 2011	387	±5%		48%	—	—	—	19%	—	—	—	33%
	37%	—	—	—	15%	21%	—	—	27%

Results

Republican primary

Congressman and House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan stated he would not run if Kohl sought reelection, but would contemplate a run if Kohl retired. Ryan later stated that he was "95 percent sure" that he would not run. He was later chosen as the Republican nominee for vice president by presidential nominee Mitt Romney.

Six candidates declared for the seat, although two later withdrew. The contest turned out to be a four-way fight. Although a large majority of Republican primary voters consistently expressed a preference for a nominee "more conservative" than Tommy Thompson, Eric Hovde and Mark Neumann split the conservative vote, allowing Thompson to narrowly prevail with a plurality of the vote.

Candidates

Declared

Jeff Fitzgerald, Speaker of the Wisconsin State Assembly
Eric Hovde, businessman
Mark Neumann, former U.S. representative, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 1998, and candidate for governor in 2010
Tommy Thompson, former governor of Wisconsin and former secretary of Health and Human Services

Withdrew

Frank Lasee, state senator (endorsed Eric Hovde)
Kip Smith, physical therapist

Declined

Mark Andrew Green, former U.S. representative and former United States ambassador to Tanzania
Theodore Kanavas, former state senator
Paul Ryan, U.S. representative
Tim Sullivan, businessman
J. B. Van Hollen, Wisconsin attorney general

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Jeff
Fitzgerald	Eric
Hovde	Mark
Neumann	Tommy
Thompson	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	August 8–9, 2012	557	± 4.2%	15%	27%	24%	25%	9%
Marquette University	August 2–5, 2012	519	± 4.4%	13%	20%	18%	28%	7%
We Ask America	July 31, 2012	1,237	± 2.8%	12%	23%	17%	23%	25%
Public Policy Polling	July 30–31, 2012	400	± 4.9%	13%	28%	25%	25%	9%
—	33%	27%	30%	10%
Marquette University	July 5–8, 2012	432	± 4.8%	6%	23%	10%	35%	25%
Public Policy Polling	July 5–8, 2012	564	± 4.1%	9%	31%	15%	29%	16%
OnMessage Inc.	June 26–27, 2012	600	± 4.0%	7%	29%	16%	34%	14%
Marquette University	June 13–16, 2012	344	± 5.4%	10%	14%	16%	34%	25%
Public Policy Polling	March 31–April 1, 2012	609	± 4.0%	18%	—	25%	38%	19%
Public Policy Polling	February 23–26, 2012	556	± 4.2%	22%	—	22%	39%	17%
32%	—	42%	—	26%
37%	—	—	46%	17%
—	—	36%	46%	18%
Public Policy Polling	October 20–23, 2011	650	± 3.8%	21%	—	29%	35%	11%
—	—	39%	43%	17%
28%	—	44%	—	28%
35%	—	—	47%	17%
Public Policy Polling	August 12–14, 2011	362	± 5.2%	—	—	39%	47%	13%
Magellan Strategies	July 12–13, 2011	638	± 3.9%	15%	—	26%	41%	18%
—	—	36%	44%	20%

Commissioned by Eric Hovde

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Tommy
Thompson	Someone more
conservative	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	July 30–31, 2012	400	± 4.9%	29%	58%	13%
Public Policy Polling	July 5–8, 2012	564	± 4.1%	34%	50%	17%
Public Policy Polling	February 23–26, 2012	556	± 4.2%	37%	47%	17%
Public Policy Polling	October 20–23, 2011	650	± 3.8%	35%	51%	14%

Endorsements

Scott Suder, Wisconsin Assembly Majority Leader (Abbotsford)
Robin Vos, Wisconsin Assembly Finance Chair (Rochester)
Joan Ballweg, Wisconsin Assembly Caucus Chair (Markesan)
Mary Williams, Wisconsin Assembly Caucus Secretary (Medford)
Samantha Kerkman, Wisconsin Assembly Caucus Sergeant at Arms (Randall)
Bill Kramer, Wisconsin Assembly Speaker Pro-Temp (Waukesha)
Dan Knodl, Wisconsin Assembly Assistant Assembly Majority Leader (Germantown)
Joel Kleefisch, Wisconsin State Representative (Oconomowoc)
Don Pridemore, Wisconsin State Representative (Hartford)
Paul Farrow, Wisconsin State Representative (Pewaukee)
Dale Kooyenga, Wisconsin State Representative (Brookfield)
Mike Kuglitsch, Wisconsin State Representative (New Berlin)
Jim Ott, Wisconsin State Representative (Brown Deer)
Frank Lasee, Wisconsin State Senator (De Pere)
Leah Vukmir, Wisconsin State Senator (Wauwatosa)
FreedomWorks
Club for Growth
Family Research Council
Rand Paul, U.S. Senator (KY)
Tom Coburn, U.S. Senator (OK)
Jim DeMint, U.S. Senator (SC)
Mike Lee, U.S. Senator (UT)
Jack Voight, former Wisconsin State Treasurer
Kurt W. Schuller, Wisconsin State Treasurer
GING PAC, a PAC of Social Conservatives
Pat Toomey, U.S. Senator (PA)
Wisconsin Right to Life
Mark Levin, Nationally Syndicated Talk Show Host

Politicians

Herman Cain, business executive, radio host, syndicated columnist, former candidate for the 2012 U.S. Republican Party presidential nomination.
Newt Gingrich, former speaker of the House of Representatives, and 2012 presidential candidate
Governor Mitch Daniels of Indiana
Rudy Giuliani, former mayor of New York City and 2008 Presidential Candidate
Lamar Alexander, U.S. senator from Tennessee
John Hoeven, U.S. senator from North Dakota
Mike Johanns, U.S. senator from Nebraska
Jim Risch, U.S. senator from Idaho
Mark Green, former U.S. representative and former United States Ambassador to Tanzania
J.B. Van Hollen, Wisconsin attorney general
Cathy Zeuske, former Wisconsin state treasurer
Mike Huckabee, former governor of Arkansas, 2008 presidential candidate and Fox News talk show host
Scott Klug, former U.S. representative (WI)
Margaret Farrow, former lieutenant governor of Wisconsin
Mike Leavitt, former governor of Utah, former Administrator of the EPA, and former Secretary of Health and Human Services
John Engler, former governor of Michigan
Dirk Kempthorne, former governor of Idaho and former Secretary of the Interior
Frank Keating, former governor of Oklahoma
Tom Ridge, former governor of Pennsylvania and former Secretary of Homeland Security
Bill Weld, former governor of Massachusetts
Bill Graves, former governor of Kansas
Jeb Bush, former Florida governor

Celebrities and political commentators

Ted Nugent, musician and conservative activist
Michael Reagan, author, radio host, and son of President Ronald Reagan
Dick Morris, political strategist, author, Fox News analyst, former adviser to President Bill Clinton
Joe Wurzelbacher, a.k.a. Joe the Plumber

Cabinet officials

Donald Rumsfeld, former Secretary of Defense from 1975 to 1977 and 2001 to 2006, former White House chief of staff, and former ambassador
Donald L. Nelson, former deputy assistant Secretary of Defense
Ray Boland, colonel and former Veterans Affairs Secretary

State legislators

John Gard, former Wisconsin Assembly Speaker
State Senator Rob Cowles
State Senator Mike Ellis
Rep. Evan Wynn (Whitewater)
Rep. Joseph Knilans (Janesville)
State Senator Sheila Harsdorf
State Senator Luther Olsen
State Senator Dale Schultz
State Senator Jerry Petrowski
Van Wanggaard, former state senator

Political organization officials

David Keene, president of the National Rifle Association of America and former chairman of the American Conservative Union
Former Republican Party of Wisconsin Chairman Rick Graber
Wisconsin Club for Growth founders Terry and Mary Kohler
Former Wisconsin Federation of Republican Women President Sue Lynch
Former Wisconsin Federation of Republican Women President Ginny Marschman
Republican National Convention co-chairman Mary Buestrin

Law enforcement officials

Waukesha County Sheriff Daniel Trawicki
Waukesha County District Attorney Brad Schimel

Organizations

Wisconsin Right to Life
Dairy Business Association
Wisconsin Corn Growers Association
Wisconsin Farm Bureau Federation
Milwaukee Police Association
Milwaukee Police Supervisors Organization
Milwaukee Professional Firefighters Association
Wisconsin Grocers Association
Wisconsin Restaurant Association
Chiropractic Society of Wisconsin
Wisconsin Health Care Association
Wisconsin Mortgage Bankers Association
GOProud

Results

Results by county

| | | | | | | | | ]]{{Election box begin no change

General election

Candidates

Tammy Baldwin (Democratic), U.S. Representative
Tommy Thompson (Republican), former governor and former Secretary of Health and Human Services
Joseph Kexel (Libertarian), IT consultant
Nimrod Allen III (independent), consultant and former Marine

Debates

Baldwin and Thompson agreed to three debates: September 28, October 18 and 26, all broadcast statewide, and nationwide through C-SPAN.

The first debate originated from the studios of Milwaukee Public Television and was coordinated by the Wisconsin Broadcasters Association. It aired on MPTV, Wisconsin Public Television, Wisconsin Public Radio and several commercial stations throughout the state.

The second debate originated from the Theater for Civic Engagement on the campus of the University of Wisconsin–Marathon County in Wausau and was coordinated by WPT/WPR, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and Milwaukee's WTMJ-TV. Again it was carried on MPTV, WPT/WPR, and several commercial stations, including WTMJ-TV.

The third debate originated from Eckstein Hall on the campus of Marquette University Law School and was coordinated by WISN-TV in Milwaukee. It aired on that station and across the state's other ABC affiliated stations.

External links

Complete video of debate, September 28, 2012 - C-SPAN
Complete video of debate, October 18, 2012 - C-SPAN
Complete video of debate, October 26, 2012 - C-SPAN

Fundraising

Candidate (party)	Receipts	Disbursements	Cash on hand	Debt
	Tammy Baldwin (D)	$14,643,869	$15,204,940	$143,852	$0
	Tommy Thompson (R)	$9,585,823	$9,582,888	$2,934	$0
Source: Federal Election Commission

Top contributors

Tammy Baldwin	Contribution	Tommy Thompson	Contribution
EMILY's List	$431,843	Michael Best & Friedrich LLP	$36,825
MoveOn.org	$171,467	ABC Supply	$28,500
University of Wisconsin	$117,600	Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld	$28,250
J Street PAC	$113,758	Direct Supply	$27,500
League of Conservation Voters	$95,308	Wisconsin Energy Corporation	$25,750
Democracy Engine	$81,330	American Foods Group	$25,000
Council for a Livable World	$54,130	Gilead Sciences	$23,000
Voices for Progress	$25,749	Centene Corporation	$20,750
Marshfield Clinic	$21,800	BGR Group	$20,500
Microsoft Corporation	$18,564	C. R. Bard, Inc.	$20,000
Source: OpenSecrets

Top industries

Tammy Baldwin	Contribution	Tommy Thompson	Contribution
Women's Issues	$915,482	Retired	$858,276
Retired	$791,756	Leadership PACs	$244,804
Lawyers/Law Firms	$597,674	Financial Institutions	$243,636
Democratic/Liberal	$555,792	Lawyers/Law Firms	$228,379
Leadership PACs	$309,430	Real Estate	$227,687
Universities	$298,298	Pharmaceuticals/Health Products	$204,302
Human Rights Organizations	$215,539	Insurance Industry	$202,654
Health Professionals	$202,654	Manufacturing & Distributing	$169,104
Pro-Israel	$172,380	Health Professionals	$150,149
Business Services	$163,238	Lobbyists	$138,700
Source: OpenSecrets

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report		November 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball		November 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report		November 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics		November 5, 2012

Polling

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Tammy
Baldwin (D)	Tommy
Thompson (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	May 19–22, 2011	1,636	±2.4%	44%		45%	—	11%
Public Policy Polling	August 12–14, 2011	830	±3.4%	42%		50%	—	8%
Public Policy Polling	October 20–23, 2011	1,170	±2.9%	44%		46%	—	10%
Rasmussen Reports	October 26, 2011	500	±4.5%	42%		49%	4%	6%
Marquette University	February 16–19, 2012	716	±3.7%	42%		48%	1%	9%
Public Policy Polling	February 23–26, 2012	900	±3.3%		46%	45%	—	9%
Rasmussen Reports	February 27, 2012	500	±4.5%	36%		50%	4%	10%
Rasmussen Reports	March 27, 2012	500	±4.5%	44%		48%	4%	4%
Public Policy Polling	April 13–15, 2012	1,136	±2.9%	45%		47%	—	8%
Rasmussen Reports	May 9, 2012	500	±4.5%	38%		50%	5%	7%
Public Policy Polling	May 11–13, 2012	851	±3.4%	42%		47%	—	11%
Rasmussen Reports	June 12, 2012	500	±4.5%	36%		52%	6%	6%
Marquette University	June 13–16, 2012	707	±3.8%	41%		49%	—	10%
Public Policy Polling	July 5–8, 2012	1,057	±3.0%	45%	45%	—	11%
Marquette University	July 5–8, 2012	810	±3.5%	41%		45%	—	14%
Rasmussen Reports	July 25, 2012	500	±4.5%		48%	41%	5%	6%
Marquette University	August 2–5, 2012	1,400	±2.6%	43%		48%	—	5%
Quinnipiac	July 31 – August 6, 2012	1,428	±2.6%	47%	47%	1%	5%
Rasmussen Reports	August 15, 2012	500	±4.5%	43%		54%	1%	3%
Public Policy Polling	August 16–19, 2012	1,308	±2.7%	44%		49%	—	7%
Marquette University	August 16–19, 2012	576	±4.2%	41%		50%	—	9%
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac	August 15–21, 2012	1,190	±3.0%	44%		50%	1%	4%
YouGov	September 4–11, 2012	772	±n/a	42%		48%	—	10%
Public Policy Polling	September 12–13, 2012	959	±n/a		48%	45%	—	6%
Marquette University	September 13–16, 2012	705	±3.8%		50%	41%	—	5%
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac	September 11–17, 2012	1,485	±2.5%	47%	47%	—	6%
NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll	September 16–18, 2012	968	±3.2%		48%	46%	—	5%
Public Policy Polling	September 18–19, 2012	842	±3.4%		49%	45%	—	6%
We Ask America	September 20–23, 2012	1,238	±2.8%		52%	40%	—	8%
Marquette University	September 27–30, 2012	894	±3.3%		48%	44%	—	6%
Public Policy Polling	October 4–6, 2012	979	±3.1%		49%	46%	—	6%
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac	October 4–9, 2012	1,327	±2.7%		48%	46%	—	5%
Rasmussen Reports	October 9, 2012	500	±4.5%		51%	47%	1%	2%
YouGov	October 4–11, 2012	639	±4.9%		48%	43%	—	9%
Marquette University	October 11–14, 2012	870	±3.3%	45%		46%	—	7%
NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll	October 15–17, 2012	1,013	±3.1%		49%	45%	1%	5%
Mason-Dixon	October 15–17, 2012	625	±4%		47%	45%	—	8%
Rasmussen Reports	October 18, 2012	500	±4.5%	46%		48%	3%	3%
Angus Reid Public Opinion	October 18–20, 2012	502	±4.5%		45%	42%	3%	11%
Rasmussen Reports	October 25, 2012	500	±4.5%	47%		48%	2%	4%
Marquette University	October 25–28, 2012	1,243	±2.8%		47%	43%	—	10%
St. Norbert College	October 25–29, 2012	402	±5%	43%		46%	—	11%
Rasmussen Reports	October 29, 2012	750	±4.0%	48%	48%	1%	2%
NBC/WSJ/Marist	October 31, 2012	1,065	±3.0%		48%	47%	4%	1%
WeAskAmerica	October 31 – November 1, 2012	1,210	±3%		49%	46%	—	5%
YouGov	October 31 – November 3, 2012	1,225	±3.1%		48%	47%	—	5%
Angus Reid Public Opinion	November 1–3, 2012	482	±4.5%		50%	48%	2%	—
Public Policy Polling	November 2–3, 2012	1,256	±2.8%		51%	48%	—	2%

with Tammy Baldwin

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Tammy
Baldwin (D)	Jeff
Fitzgerald (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	May 19–22, 2011	1,636	±2.4%		48%	37%	—	15%
Public Policy Polling	October 20–23, 2011	1,170	±2.9%		44%	40%	—	16%
Rasmussen Reports	October 26, 2011	500	±4.5%		46%	39%	4%	6%
Marquette University	February 16–19, 2012	716	±3.7%		45%	37%	3%	15%
Public Policy Polling	February 23–26, 2012	900	±3.3%		47%	39%	—	14%
Rasmussen Reports	February 27, 2012	500	±4.5%	40%		41%	4%	15%
Rasmussen Reports	March 27, 2012	500	±4.5%		48%	40%	4%	7%
Public Policy Polling	April 13–15, 2012	1,136	±2.9%		47%	40%	—	13%
Rasmussen Reports	May 9, 2012	500	±4.5%		45%	41%	4%	9%
Rasmussen Reports	June 12, 2012	500	±4.5%		44%	43%	5%	8%
Marquette University	June 13–16, 2012	707	±3.8%		45%	39%	—	16%
Public Policy Polling	July 5–8, 2012	1,057	±3.0%		46%	42%	—	13%
Marquette University	July 5–8, 2012	810	±3.5%		43%	37%	—	20%
Rasmussen Reports	July 25, 2012	500	±4.5%		47%	37%	6%	10%
Marquette University	August 2–5, 2012	1,400	±2.6%		45%	40%	—	7%
Quinnipiac	July 31 – August 6, 2012	1,428	±2.6%		51%	39%	—	9%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Tammy
Baldwin (D)	Eric
Hovde (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	May 11–13, 2012	851	±3.4%	41%		45%	—	14%
Rasmussen Reports	June 12, 2012	500	±4.5%	42%		44%	4%	10%
Marquette University	June 13–16, 2012	707	±3.8%		45%	36%	—	19%
Public Policy Polling	July 5–8, 2012	1,057	±3.0%	44%		45%	—	11%
Marquette University	July 5–8, 2012	810	±3.5%		44%	38%	—	18%
Rasmussen Reports	July 25, 2012	500	±4.5%		45%	42%	5%	8%
Marquette University	August 2–5, 2012	1,400	±2.6%		44%	41%	—	9%
Quinnipiac	July 31 – August 6, 2012	1,428	±2.6%		47%	43%	1%	8%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Tammy
Baldwin (D)	Mark
Neumann (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	May 19–22, 2011	1,636	±2.4%		46%	41%	—	13%
Public Policy Polling	August 12–14, 2011	830	±3.4%	40%		44%	—	15%
Public Policy Polling	October 20–23, 2011	1,170	±2.9%		44%	43%	—	13%
Rasmussen Reports	October 26, 2011	500	±4.5%		44%	43%	4%	9%
Marquette University	February 16–19, 2012	716	±3.7%		44%	40%	2%	14%
Public Policy Polling	February 23–26, 2012	900	±3.3%		47%	41%	—	12%
Rasmussen Reports	February 27, 2012	500	±4.5%	37%		46%	4%	13%
Rasmussen Reports	March 27, 2012	500	±4.5%		48%	40%	4%	8%
Public Policy Polling	April 13–15, 2012	1,136	±2.9%		46%	45%	—	9%
Rasmussen Reports	May 9, 2012	500	±4.5%	42%		44%	4%	9%
Public Policy Polling	May 11–13, 2012	851	±3.4%	42%		46%	—	12%
Rasmussen Reports	June 12, 2012	500	±4.5%	43%		45%	5%	7%
Marquette University	June 13–16, 2012	707	±3.8%	44%	44%	—	12%
Public Policy Polling	July 5–8, 2012	1,057	±3.0%		45%	41%	—	13%
Marquette University	July 5–8, 2012	810	±3.5%		43%	40%	—	17%
Rasmussen Reports	July 25, 2012	500	±4.5%		48%	42%	3%	8%
Marquette University	August 2–5, 2012	1,400	±2.6%	44%	44%	—	6%
Quinnipiac	July 31 – August 6, 2012	1,428	±2.6%		48%	45%	1%	6%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Tammy
Baldwin (D)	J. B.
Van Hollen (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	May 19–22, 2011	1,636	±2.4%	46%	39%	—	15%

with Russ Feingold

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Russ
Feingold (D)	Jeff
Fitzgerald (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	May 19–22, 2011	1,636	±2.4%	55%	39%	—	7%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Russ
Feingold (D)	Mark
Neumann (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	August 12–14, 2011	830	±3.4%	51%	44%	—	5%
Public Policy Polling	May 19–22, 2011	1,636	±2.4%	53%	41%	—	6%
Public Policy Polling	February 24–27, 2011	768	±3.5%	50%	40%	—	10%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Russ
Feingold (D)	Paul
Ryan (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	December 10–12, 2010	702	±3.7%	50%	43%	—	7%
Public Policy Polling	February 24–27, 2011	768	±3.5%	49%	42%	—	9%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Russ
Feingold (D)	Tommy
Thompson (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	December 10–12, 2010	702	±3.7%	49%	40%	—	11%
Public Policy Polling	May 19–22, 2011	1,636	±2.4%	52%	42%	—	6%
Public Policy Polling	August 12–14, 2011	830	±3.4%	48%	47%	—	5%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Russ
Feingold (D)	J. B.
Van Hollen (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	December 10–12, 2010	702	±3.7%	52%	41%	—	7%
Public Policy Polling	February 24–27, 2011	768	±3.5%	51%	39%	—	10%
Public Policy Polling	May 19–22, 2011	1,636	±2.4%	53%	38%	—	9%

with Steve Kagen

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Steve
Kagen (D)	Jeff
Fitzgerald (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	May 19–22, 2011	1,636	±2.4%	43%	38%	—	19%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Steve
Kagen (D)	Mark
Neumann (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	May 19–22, 2011	1,636	±2.4%		42%	41%	—	17%
Public Policy Polling	August 12–14, 2011	830	±3.4%	38%		45%	—	17%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Steve
Kagen (D)	Tommy
Thompson (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	May 19–22, 2011	1,636	±2.4%	42%	45%	—	13%
Public Policy Polling	August 12–14, 2011	830	±3.4%	41%	49%	—	10%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Steve
Kagen (D)	J. B.
Van Hollen (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	May 19–22, 2011	1,636	±2.4%	43%	38%	—	19%

with Ron Kind

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Ron
Kind (D)	Jeff
Fitzgerald (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	May 19–22, 2011	1,636	±2.4%	45%	37%	—	18%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Ron
Kind (D)	Mark
Neumann (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	May 19–22, 2011	1,636	±2.4%		44%	40%	—	16%
Public Policy Polling	August 12–14, 2011	830	±3.4%	40%		43%	—	17%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Ron
Kind (D)	Tommy
Thompson (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	May 19–22, 2011	1,636	±2.4%	44%	44%	—	12%
Public Policy Polling	August 12–14, 2011	830	±3.4%	41%		48%	—	11%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Ron
Kind (D)	J. B.
Van Hollen (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	May 19–22, 2011	1,636	±2.4%	44%	38%	—	17%

with Herb Kohl

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Herb
Kohl (D)	Mark
Neumann (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	February 24–27, 2011	768	±3.5%	51%	37%	—	12%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Herb
Kohl (D)	Paul
Ryan (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	December 10–12, 2010	702	±3.7%	48%	42%	—	11%
Public Policy Polling	February 24–27, 2011	768	±3.5%	49%	42%	—	10%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Herb
Kohl (D)	Tommy
Thompson (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	December 10–12, 2010	702	±3.7%	49%	40%	—	11%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Herb
Kohl (D)	J. B.
Van Hollen (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	December 10–12, 2010	702	±3.7%	51%	38%	—	11%
Public Policy Polling	February 24–27, 2011	768	±3.5%	52%	37%	—	11%

Results

Counties that flipped Democratic to Republican

Barron (largest city: Rice Lake)
Brown (largest city: Green Bay)
Burnett (largest village: Grantsburg)
Calumet (largest city: Chilton)
Clark (largest city: Neillsville)
Iron (largest city: Hurley)
Jefferson (largest city: Watertown)
Kewaunee (largest city: Algoma)
Langlade (largest city: Antigo)
Manitowoc (largest city: Manitowoc)
Marathon (largest city: Wausau)
Marinette (largest city: Marinette)
Monroe (largest city: Sparta)
Oconto (largest city: Oconto)
Oneida (largest city: Rhinelander)
Outagamie (largest city: Appleton)
Rusk (largest city: Ladysmith)
Shawano (largest city: Shawano)
Washburn (largest city: Spooner)
Waupaca (largest city: New London)
Waushara (largest city: Berlin)
Adams (largest city: Adams)
Marquette (largest city: Montello)
Polk (Largest city: Amery)
Sheboygan (Largest city: Sheboygan)
St. Croix (Largest city: Hudson)
Taylor (Largest city: Medford)
Florence (Largest city: Florence)
Vilas (Largest city: Eagle River)
Fond du Lac (Largest city: Fond du Lac)
Green Lake (Largest city: Green Lake)
Dodge (Largest city: Juneau)
Ozaukee (Largest city: Mequon)
Walworth (Largest city: Whitewater)
Washington (Largest city: West Bend)
Waukesha (Largest city: Waukesha)

By congressional district

Despite losing the state, Thompson won five of eight congressional districts.

District	Thompson	Representative
50.61%	46.56%	Paul Ryan
32.28%	65.82%	Mark Pocan
44.31%	52.77%	Ron Kind
25.15%	72.93%	Gwen Moore
61.06%	36.68%	Jim Sensenbrenner
52.93%	44.05%	Tom Petri
48.93%	48.06%	Sean Duffy
50.21%	46.63%	Reid Ribble

Aftermath

Brian Schimming, the vice chairman of the Wisconsin Republican Party, partly blamed Thompson's defeat on the fact that he had to face a competitive primary whereas Baldwin was unopposed for the Democratic nomination: "[Thompson] blew all his money going through the primary. So when he gets through the primary, it was like three weeks before he was up on the air. [Baldwin] piled on immediately." He claimed "If [Thompson] hadn't had as ugly a primary, we could have won that seat."

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