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2012 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania

none

Field	Value
election_name	2012 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania
country	Pennsylvania
type	presidential
ongoing	no
previous_election	2006 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania
previous_year	2006
next_election	2018 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania
next_year	2018
election_date	November 6, 2012
image_size	x150px
turnout	59.4% (voting eligible)
image1	Bob Casey, official Senate photo portrait, c2008 (cropped).jpg
nominee1	Bob Casey Jr.
party1	Democratic Party (United States)
popular_vote1	3,021,364
percentage1	53.69%
image2	Tom Smith PA cropped (cropped).jpg
nominee2	Tom Smith
party2	Republican Party (United States)
popular_vote2	2,509,132
percentage2	44.59%
map_image
map_size	240px
map_caption	Casey:
Smith:
title	U.S. Senator
before_election	Bob Casey Jr.
before_party	Democratic Party (United States)
after_election	Bob Casey Jr.
after_party	Democratic Party (United States)

Smith:
The 2012 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania was held on November 6, 2012, alongside a presidential election, other elections to the United States Senate in other states, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Bob Casey, Jr. ran for and won re-election to a second term, defeating Republican nominee Tom Smith, and Libertarian nominee Rayburn Smith.

The requisite primary elections occurred on April 24, 2012, during which the Republicans and Democrats selected nominees for the general election. The Republican primary was a five-way contest. Tom Smith, the eventual nominee, faced David A. Christian, Sam Rohrer, Marc Scaringi, and Steve Welch. The Democratic primary was not heavily contested. Incumbent Bob Casey, Jr., defeated Joseph Vodvarka by a wide margin. The Libertarian Party nominated Rayburn Smith.

Casey led most pre-election polls and eventually defeated his opponents to win re-election to a second term in the U.S. Senate. The election was the first time a Democrat won re-election to the U.S. Senate from Pennsylvania since the 1962 election. As of , this is the last time that Fayette County and Luzerne County voted Democratic in a Senate election. This is also the only time since 1956 that Democrats have won a Pennsylvania U.S. Senate race in a presidential year.

Background

On November 7, 2006, Bob Casey, Jr., the State Treasurer and son of former Governor Bob Casey, Sr., defeated two-term incumbent Republican senator Rick Santorum with 58.64% of votes cast. Santorum's margin of defeat was the largest for an incumbent Republican senator in Pennsylvania history; it was also the first time a Democrat was elected to a full Senate term from Pennsylvania since Joseph Clark was re-elected in 1962.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Bob Casey, Jr., incumbent U.S. Senator
Joseph Vodvarka, spring maker

Results

Results by county:

| | | ]]

Republican primary

Candidates

On ballot

David Christian, businessman and veterans' advocate
John Kensinger, pharmacist
Sam Rohrer, former state representative from Robeson Township and candidate for governor in 2010
Marc Scaringi, attorney and former legislative aide to Rick Santorum
Tom Smith, farmer and businessman and candidate for governor in 2010
Steve Welch, businessman

Withdrew

Tim Burns, businessman and unsuccessful candidate for the 12th district in the 2010 special and general elections{{cite web|url=http://www.politicspa.com/burns-exits-senate-race/31520/|title=Burns Exits Senate Race
Laureen Cummings, Tea Party activist
John Vernon, retired Army colonel

Declined

Jake Corman, state senator
Charlie Dent, U.S. representative
Jim Gerlach, U.S. representative
Keith Loiselle, businessman
Glen Meakem, radio host
Pat Meehan, U.S. representative
Tim Murphy, U.S. representative
Dominic Pileggi, State Senate Majority Leader
Mark Schweiker, former Pennsylvania governor
Bill Shuster, U.S. representative
Mike Turzai, State House Majority Leader
Kim Ward, state senator
Joe Watkins, MSNBC contributor

Campaign

In January 2012, the Pennsylvania Republican Party officially endorsed Steve Welch for U.S. Senate. The largest state newspaper, The Philadelphia Inquirer, also endorsed Welch. He was also endorsed by the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. However, he was criticized for changing his party registration. In 2008, he became a Democrat so he could vote for Barack Obama in the 2008 Democratic presidential primary. In 2006, he donated money to Democratic Congressman Joe Sestak.

Tom Smith spent nearly $3 million in the first three months of 2012, outspending Welch 2–1. Smith has spent a wide majority of it in television advertising. Like Welch, Smith has also registered as a Democrat. However, unlike Welch who was a registered Democrat for only a few years, Smith was a Democrat for 42 years. Smith was a Plumcreek Township Supervisor and allegedly raised taxes 9 times (including the real estate, earned income, and per capita taxes). Over the past decade, he donated over $185,000 to Republican candidates. The only Democrat he donated to was Congressman Jason Altmire, a moderate Blue Dog.

Sam Rohrer, a former state representative, ran for statewide office again after losing to State Attorney General Tom Corbett in the 2010 Republican primary for Pennsylvania Governor. Rohrer was endorsed by various tea party organizations, as well as U.S. Congresswoman Michele Bachmann and 2012 Republican presidential candidate Herman Cain.

David Christian, a Vietnam war veteran and businessman, also ran. He previously ran for congress in 1984 and 1986. He was endorsed by the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.

Polling

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Tim
Burns	David
Christian	Laureen
Cummings	John
Kensinger	Sam
Rohrer	Marc
Scaringi	Tom
Smith	John
Vernon	Steve
Welch	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	November 17–20, 2011	400	±4.9%	15%	—	2%	—		25%	0%	3%	1%	1%	8%	43%
Tribune-Review/WPXI-TV	February 2–6, 2012	500	±4.4%	—	1%	—	3%		10%	1%	8%	—	1%	—	72%
Public Policy Polling	March 8–11, 2012	564	±4.1%	—	10%	—	—		16%	8%	12%	—	5%	—	48%
Franklin & Marshall College	March 20–25, 2012	505	±4.2%	—	1%	—	—	7%	1%		9%	—	1%	—	81%

Results

Results by county:

| | | | | | | |{{legend|#ffccaa| | | | | | ]]

General election

Candidates

Bob Casey, Jr. (Democratic), incumbent U.S. Senator
Tom Smith (Republican), businessman
Rayburn Smith (Libertarian)

Debates

Complete video of debate, October 26, 2012 - C-SPAN

Fundraising

Candidate (party)	Receipts	Disbursements	Cash on hand	Debt
	Bob Casey, Jr. (D)	$7,664,686	$2,754,060	$6,226,560	$5,261
	Tom Smith (R)	$7,954,211	$5,673,558	$2,280,655	$6,475,000
Source: Federal Election Commission

Top contributors

Bob Casey, Jr.	Contribution	Tom Smith	Contribution
Comcast Corp	$95,175	Rosebud Mining	$26,000
Blank Rome LLP	$65,500	Tj Smith Trucking	$15,000
Reed Smith LLP	$61,800	Penneco Oil Co	$12,500
Cozen O'Connor	$44,975	Transportation Equipment Supply Co	$11,500
University of Pennsylvania	$44,450	R&S Machine Co	$10,250
Buchanan, Ingersoll & Rooney	$43,098	Citizens United	$10,000
K&L Gates	$42,650	Mepco LLC	$10,000
Pride Mobility Products	$40,250	Snyder Armclar Gas	$10,000
Blue Cross & Blue Shield	$39,950	Stitt Management	$10,000
National Amusements Inc.	$39,250	Penn Waste	$10,000

Top industries

Bob Casey, Jr.	Contribution	Tom Smith	Contribution
Lawyers/Law Firms	$2,095,026	Retired	$104,725
Lobbyists	$407,472	Mining	$87,800
Real Estate	$389,559	Republican/Conservative	$43,500
Health Professionals	$336,023	Oil & Gas	$40,750
Financial Institutions	$335,998	Misc Business	$35,300
Retired	$329,132	Financial Institutions	$25,500
Pharmaceuticals/Health Products	$313,597	Misc Manufacturing & Distributing	$19,650
Hospitals/Nursing Homes	$296,737	Leadership PACs	$19,000
Entertainment Industry	$237,825	Misc Energy	$18,000
Insurance	$221,750	Trucking	$15,250

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report		November 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball		November 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report		November 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics		November 5, 2012

Polling

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Bob
Casey, Jr. (D)	Tom
Smith (R)	Other	Undecided
Angus Reid Public Opinion	November 2–4, 2012	507	± 4.2%	53%	46%	1%	—
Public Policy Polling	November 2–3, 2012	790	± 3.5%	52%	44%	—	3%
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call	November 1–3, 2012	430	± 5%	48%	42%	2%	9%
Tribune-Review/Susquehanna	October 29–31, 2012	800	± 3.4%	46%	45%	2%	8%
Franklin & Marshall College	October 23–28, 2012	547	± 4.2%	46%	36%	4%	13%
Philadelphia Inquirer	October 23–25, 2012	600	± 4%	49%	42%	—	9%
Rasmussen Reports	October 24, 2012	500	± 4.5%	46%	45%	—	9%
Pharos Research	October 19–21, 2012	760	± 3.6%	52%	42%	—	6%
Muhlenberg College Poll	October 17–21, 2012	444	± 5%	45%	37%	2%	16%
Angus Reid Public Opinion	October 18–20, 2012	559	± 4.2%	51%	45%	4%	—
Quinnipiac	October 12–14, 2012	1,519	± 2.5%	48%	45%	—	7%
Public Policy Polling	October 12–14, 2012	500	± 4.4%	50%	39%	—	11%
Muhlenberg	October 10–14, 2012	438	± 5%	41%	39%	1%	18%
Susquehanna Polling	October 11–13, 2012	1,376	± 2.6%	46%	48%	1%	5%
Rasmussen Reports	October 9, 2012	500	± 4.5%	49%	45%	1%	5%
Philadelphia Inquirer	October 4–8, 2012	600	± 4%	48%	38%	—	14%
Susquehanna Polling	October 4–6, 2012	725	± 3.7%	46%	44%	—	9%
Siena Poll	October 1–5, 2012	545	± 4.2%	44%	35%	—	16%
Muhlenberg College	September 22–26, 2012	427	± 5%	44%	36%	7%	13%
Quinnipiac/CBS/NYT Poll	September 18–24, 2012	1,180	± 3%	49%	43%	—	—
Franklin & Marshall	September 18–23, 2012	392	± 4.9%	48%	38%	—	8%
Rasmussen Reports	September 19, 2012	500	± 4.5%	49%	42%	2%	7%
Muhlenberg College	September 10–16, 2012	640	± 4%	45%	33%	5%	18%
Philadelphia Inquirer	August 21–23, 2012	601	± 4%	53%	34%	—	13%
MCall/Muhlenberg Poll	August 20–22, 2012	422	± 5%	49%	30%	—	18%
Franklin & Marshall College	August 7–12, 2012	681	± 3.8%	35%	23%	2%	39%
Quinnipiac	July 24–30, 2012	1,168	± 2.9%	55%	37%	—	8%
Public Policy Polling	July 21–23, 2012	758	± 3.6%	46%	36%	—	18%
Rasmussen Reports	July 18, 2012	500	± 4.5%	49%	38%	—	9%
We Ask America	July 9–10, 2012	1,227	± 2.8%	53%	39%	—	8%
Quinnipiac	June 19–25, 2012	1,252	± 2.8%	49%	32%	1%	17%
Quinnipiac	June 5–10, 2012	997	± 3.1%	51%	32%	1%	14%
Franklin & Marshall College	May 29–June 4, 2012	412	± 4.8%	42%	21%	2%	35%
Rasmussen Reports	May 21, 2012	500	± 4.5%	48%	41%	3%	7%
Public Policy Polling	May 17–20, 2012	671	± 3.8%	49%	33%	—	19%
Public Policy Polling	March 8–11, 2012	689	± 3.7%	49%	31%	—	20%
Public Policy Polling	November 17–20, 2011	500	± 4.4%	48%	32%	—	20%

Republican primary

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Jake
Corman	Laureen
Cummings	Charlie
Dent	Jim
Gerlach	Tim
Murphy	Rick
Santorum	Marc
Scaringi	Mark
Schweiker	Kim
Ward	Other/
Undecided
Public Policy Polling	June 30 – July 5, 2011	376	± 5.1%	9%	5%	4%	7%	9%	47%	1%	—	0%	18%
Public Policy Polling	January 3–5, 2011	400	± 4.9%	3%	—	8%	9%	7%	45%	1%	8%	1%	19%
9%	—	10%	14%	13%	—	1%	18%	2%	33%

General election

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Bob
Casey, Jr. (D)	Generic
Republican	Depends on
the candidate	Undecided
Quinnipiac	March 7–12, 2012	1256	± 2.8%	46%	34%	8%	12%
Morning Call	February 15–21, 2012	625	± 4%	40%	25%	20%	14%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Bob
Casey, Jr. (D)	Tim
Burns (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	November 17–20, 2011	500	± 4.4%	49%	34%	—	17%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Bob
Casey, Jr. (D)	David
Christian (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	March 8–11, 2012	689	± 3.7%	50%	32%	—	18%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Bob
Casey, Jr. (D)	Jake
Corman (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	June 30 – July 5, 2011	545	± 4.2%	51%	35%	—	14%
Public Policy Polling	April 7–10, 2011	593	± 4.0%	51%	35%	—	14%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Bob
Casey, Jr. (D)	Laureen
Cummings (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	June 30 – July 5, 2011	545	± 4.2%	51%	31%	—	18%
Public Policy Polling	April 7–10, 2011	593	± 4.0%	51%	32%	—	17%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Bob
Casey, Jr. (D)	Charlie
Dent (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	April 7–10, 2011	593	± 4.0%	51%	31%	—	18%
Municipoll	February 21–23, 2011	670	± 3.79.%	51%	32%	—	17%
Public Policy Polling	January 3–5, 2011	547	± 4.2%	51%	31%	—	18%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Bob
Casey, Jr. (D)	Jim
Gerlach (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	June 30 – July 5, 2011	545	± 4.2%	49%	33%	—	17%
Public Policy Polling	April 7–10, 2011	593	± 4.0%	50%	32%	—	19%
Municipoll	February 21–23, 2011	670	± 3.79.%	48%	34%	—	17%
Public Policy Polling	January 3–5, 2011	547	± 4.2%	49%	33%	—	18%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Bob
Casey, Jr. (D)	Tim
Murphy (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	June 30 – July 5, 2011	545	± 4.2%	47%	35%	—	18%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Bob
Casey, Jr. (D)	Sam
Rohrer (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	March 8–11, 2012	689	± 3.7%	49%	34%	—	17%
Public Policy Polling	November 17–20, 2011	500	± 4.4%	47%	36%	—	16%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Bob
Casey, Jr. (D)	Rick
Santorum (R)	Other	Undecided
Morning Call	February 15–21, 2012	625	± 4%	44%	36%	7%	12%
Public Policy Polling	November 17–20, 2011	500	± 4.4%	49%	39%	—	11%
Public Policy Polling	June 30 – July 5, 2011	545	± 4.2%	48%	39%	—	13%
Public Policy Polling	April 7–10, 2011	593	± 4.0%	49%	37%	—	13%
Municipoll	February 21–23, 2011	670	± 3.79.%	50%	38%	—	12%
Public Policy Polling	January 3–5, 2011	547	± 4.2%	48%	41%	—	10%
Public Policy Polling	June 19–21, 2010	609	± 4.0%	51%	39%	—	10%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Bob
Casey, Jr. (D)	Marc
Scaringi (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	March 8–11, 2012	689	± 3.7%	49%	29%	—	22%
Public Policy Polling	June 30 – July 5, 2011	545	± 4.2%	47%	29%	—	24%
Public Policy Polling	April 7–10, 2011	593	± 4.0%	51%	28%	—	21%
Public Policy Polling	January 3–5, 2011	547	± 4.2%	50%	27%	—	22%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Bob
Casey, Jr. (D)	Mark
Schweiker (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	January 3–5, 2011	547	± 4.2%	47%	34%	—	18%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Bob
Casey, Jr. (D)	Kim
Ward (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	April 7–10, 2011	593	± 4.0%	50%	29%	—	21%

Poll source	Date(s)
administered	Sample
size	Margin of
error	Bob
Casey, Jr. (D)	Steve
Welch (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	March 8–11, 2012	689	± 3.7%	49%	31%	—	22%
Public Policy Polling	November 17–20, 2011	500	± 4.4%	47%	33%	—	20%

Results

Despite many predictions of a close race, the election was not close. Casey, despite being seen as somewhat vulnerable, went into election night with most analysts thinking he could win. Casey did win by more than expected, which can be traced to several factors. Casey trounced Smith in Philadelphia County, home of Philadelphia. Casey also won the surrounding collar counties of Bucks, Chester, Delaware, and Montgomery, which are seen as vital in statewide elections in Pennsylvania. Casey also performed well in Allegheny County, home of Pittsburgh. Casey also performed well in Erie. Casey also performed strongly in the Scranton area. Smith did well in rural counties, but it wasn't enough to overcome the lead Casey had built in the huge population centers. Casey was sworn in for his second term beginning at noon on January 3, 2013.

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Armstrong (Largest city: Kittanning)
Cambria (largest municipality: Johnstown)
Carbon (largest municipality: Lehighton)
Clearfield (Largest township: DuBois)
Greene (largest municipality: Waynesburg)
Lawrence (largest municipality: New Castle)
Mercer (largest municipality: Hermitage)
Clinton (Largest city: Lock Haven)
Columbia (Largest city: Bloomsburg)
Elk (Largest city: St. Marys)
Forest (Largest city: Marienville)
Indiana (Largest city: Indiana)
Somerset (largest city: Somerset)
Schuylkill (Largest city: Pottsville)
Warren (Largest city: Warren)
Westmoreland (Largest township: Hempfield Township)
Washington (Largest township: Peters Township)

By congressional district

Casey won nine of 18 congressional districts, including four that elected Republicans.

District	Smith	Representative
15.85%	83.36%	Bob Brady
8.61%	90.74%	Chaka Fattah
53.94%	43.87%	Mike Kelly
54.81%	42.78%	Jason Altmire
	Scott Perry
55.83%	41.46%	Glenn Thompson
48.56%	49.72%	Jim Gerlach
48.23%	50.58%	Pat Meehan
47.74%	50.94%	Mike Fitzpatrick
58.99%	38.94%	Bill Shuster
58.12%	39.84%	Tom Marino
51.35%	46.54%	Lou Barletta
52.79%	45.31%	Mark Critz
	Keith Rothfus
30.84%	68.37%	Allyson Schwartz
27.74%	70.02%	Mike Doyle
48.2%	50.02%	Charlie Dent
51.6%	46.52%	Joe Pitts
40.96%	57.28%	Tim Holden
	Matt Cartwright
53.4%	44.81%	Tim Murphy

References

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Itkowitz, Colby. (February 15, 2012). "Petitions filed for Pa. primary". The Allentown Morning Call.
"2012: David Christian Enters U.S. Senate Race". Pike County Republican Committee.
Reabuck, Sandra K.. (September 28, 2011). "New Paris pharmacist seeks GOP nomination". [[The Tribune-Democrat]].
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Gibson, Keegan. (September 13, 2011). "Welch to Enter Senate Race". [[PoliticsPA]].
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[http://triblive.com/home/2878011-74/casey-smith-poll-percent-senate-bob-lee-republican-class-county#axzz2BB7sCTBD Tribune-Review/Susquehanna]
[http://thetimes-tribune.com/news/new-poll-shows-obama-casey-still-up-in-pa-1.1396339 Franklin & Marshall College]
[http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/poll/20121026_Poll__Obama_still_ahead__but_Romney_up.html Philadelphia Inquirer]
[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_senate_elections/pennsylvania/election_2012_pennsylvania_senate Rasmussen Reports]
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[http://www.angus-reid.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/2012.10.22_Pennsylvania.pdf Muhlenberg College Poll] {{Dead link. (April 2023)
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"Pennsylvania Elections - Summary Results".
"Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts".

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