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2012 United States presidential election in Tennessee

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FieldValue
election_name2012 United States presidential election in Tennessee
countryTennessee
typepresidential
ongoingno
previous_election2008 United States presidential election in Tennessee
previous_year2008
next_election2016 United States presidential election in Tennessee
next_year2016
election_dateNovember 6, 2012
image_sizex200px
image1Mitt_Romney_by_Gage_Skidmore_6_cropped.jpg
nominee1Mitt Romney
party1Republican Party (United States)
home_state1Massachusetts
running_mate1Paul Ryan
electoral_vote111
popular_vote11,462,330
percentage159.42%
image2President Barack Obama, 2012 portrait crop.jpg
nominee2Barack Obama
party2Democratic Party (United States)
home_state2Illinois
running_mate2Joe Biden
electoral_vote20
popular_vote2960,709
percentage239.04%
titlePresident
before_electionBarack Obama
before_partyDemocratic Party (United States)
after_electionBarack Obama
after_partyDemocratic Party (United States)
turnout61.86% 4.48 pp
map{{Switcher
map_caption

Main article: 2012 United States presidential election

| [[File:Tennessee Presidential Election Results 2012.svg|350px]] | County results | [[File:TN-2012-pres-districts.svg|350px]] | Congressional district results | [[File:2012 TN Pres.svg|350px]] |Precinct results}} Romney Obama Tie/No Data

The 2012 United States presidential election in Tennessee was held on November 6, 2012, as part of the 2012 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Tennessee voters chose 11 electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama and his running mate, Vice President Joe Biden, against Republican challenger and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and his running mate, Congressman Paul Ryan.

Romney easily carried Tennessee's 11 electoral votes, with 59.42% of the statewide vote to Obama's 39.04% and a 20.38% margin of victory. Tennessee has not voted for a Democratic presidential nominee since 1996, when Bill Clinton of neighboring Arkansas won it along with many other Southern states, nor has the state done so with a majority of the vote share since Jimmy Carter of neighboring Georgia carried it in 1976. Thus, Tennessee has been seen as part of the modern-day red wall in the 21st century. After 1996, the state has been growing more Republican with almost each election.

Winning Tennessee by 501,621 votes, Mitt Romney achieved his second-largest margin of victory by vote count nationwide, surpassed only by his 1,261,719-vote margin in Texas, also located in the South. Romney gained ground in every county, significantly outperforming prior GOP presidential candidates in rural areas, particularly in Middle Tennessee. Notably, Romney also flipped two counties, Houston and Jackson, to the Republican column. Both of these majority-white counties had been Democratic strongholds with their strong ties to secessionism: they had each only voted for a Republican presidential nominee once prior to this election, in 1928 and 1920, respectively. Thus, Obama became the first Democrat to be elected without either county. As of the 2024 presidential election, this is the last time in which Hardeman County was won by the Democratic presidential nominee.

As consistent with the rest of the country, Obama carried heavily populated and diverse counties. The largest county, Shelby, was won by Obama by a 26.05% margin due to it being home to Memphis, Tennessee's largest city. In addition, the home of the state capital of Nashville, Davidson County, went to Obama by 18.53%. Hardeman and Haywood counties, both low-populated suburbs of Memphis, also went to Obama due to their high African American populations (42.2% and 50.6%, respectively). However, rural areas – including areas in the northwestern portion of the state that had long favored Democratic candidates – saw heavy margins for Romney, allowing him to offset Obama's wins in large cities. The eastern region of the state in Appalachia, some of the most historically Republican and Unionist counties in the country, saw margins of over 70% for the Republican ticket. This was the first election since 1908 in which Tennessee backed the national loser a second consecutive time. Obama is the only Democrat to ever win two terms without carrying the state at least once.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Main article: 2012 Tennessee Democratic presidential primary

Obama:

The 2012 democratic primary in Tennessee took place on Super Tuesday, March 6, 2012, with Barack Obama receiving 80,355 (88.5%) votes. Other candidates received a combined total of 10,411 (11.5%) votes. Tennessee had a total of 91 delegates to the 2012 Democratic National Convention, of which 82 were pledged to presidential contenders depending on the popular vote. The remaining 9 super-delegates were unbound.

CandidatePopular voteDelegatesCountPercentagePledged delegatesSuper delegatesTotal delegates
[[File:America Symbol.svg14px]] Barack Obama (incumbent)80,70588.48%82991
Uncommitted10,49711.51%000
John Wolfe Jr. (write-in)70.00%000
Total:91,209100%82991

Republican primary

Main article: 2012 Tennessee Republican presidential primary

Santorum Romney Gingrich

The Republican primary took place on Super Tuesday, March 6, 2012.

Tennessee has 58 delegates to the 2012 Republican National Convention. Three superdelegates are unbound. 27 delegates are awarded by congressional district, 3 delegates for each district. If a candidate wins two-thirds of the vote in a district, he takes all 3 delegates there; if not, delegates are split 2-to-1 between the top two candidates. Another 28 delegates are awarded to the candidate who wins two-thirds of the vote statewide, or allocated proportionately among candidates winning at least 20% of the vote if no one gets two-thirds.

Former Senator from Pennsylvania Rick Santorum won the primary with a plurality, carrying 37.11% of the vote and all but four counties, awarding him 29 delegates. Former Massachusetts Governor and eventual nominee, Mitt Romney, came second with 28.06% of the vote and 19 delegates. He carried only three counties: Davidson, Loudon, and Williamson. Former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Newt Gingrich of neighboring Georgia, came third with 23.96% of the vote and 9 delegates, carrying only the county of Marion. Representative from Texas Ron Paul received 9.04% of the vote and all other candidates received under 1% of the vote.

Results

CandidateVotesPercentageProjected delegate countNYT
CNN
FOX
[[File:America Symbol.svg14px]] Rick Santorum205,80937.11%292726
Mitt Romney155,63028.06%141512
Newt Gingrich132,88923.96%989
Ron Paul50,1569.04%000
Rick Perry (withdrawn)1,9660.35%000
Michele Bachmann (withdrawn)1,8950.34%000
Jon Huntsman (withdrawn)1,2390.22%000
Buddy Roemer (withdrawn)8810.16%000
Gary Johnson (withdrawn)5720.10%000
Uncommitted3,5360.64%000
Unprojected delegates:689
Total:554,573100.00%585858

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Huffington PostNovember 6, 2012
CNNNovember 6, 2012
New York TimesNovember 6, 2012
Washington PostNovember 6, 2012
RealClearPoliticsNovember 6, 2012
Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 5, 2012
FiveThirtyEightNovember 6, 2012

Results

PartyCandidateRunning mateVotesPercentageElectoral votes
RepublicanMitt RomneyPaul Ryan1,462,33059.42%11
DemocraticBarack Obama (incumbent)Joe Biden (incumbent)960,70939.04%0
LibertarianGary JohnsonJim Gray18,6230.67%0
GreenJill SteinCheri Honkala6,5150.26%0
ConstitutionVirgil GoodeJim Clymer6,0220.24%0
JusticeRocky AndersonLuis J. Rodriguez2,6390.11%0
American Third PositionMerlin MillerVirginia D. Abernethy1,7390.07%0
Totals2,458,577100.00%11

By county

CountyMitt Romney
RepublicanBarack Obama
DemocraticVarious candidates
Other partiesMarginTotal#%#%#%#%Totals1,462,33059.42%960,70939.04%37,8651.54%501,62120.38%2,460,904
Anderson18,96863.95%10,12234.13%5691.92%8,84629.82%29,659
Bedford10,03469.46%4,21129.15%2001.39%5,82340.31%14,445
Benton3,85061.84%2,25836.27%1181.89%1,59225.57%6,226
Bledsoe3,02269.33%1,26729.07%701.60%1,75540.26%4,359
Blount35,44171.98%12,93426.27%8591.75%22,50745.71%49,234
Bradley27,42275.97%8,03722.27%6371.76%19,38553.70%36,096
Campbell8,60471.10%3,32827.50%1691.40%5,27643.60%12,101
Cannon3,30966.54%1,56431.45%1002.01%1,74535.09%4,973
Carroll7,22566.58%3,47532.02%1511.40%3,75034.56%10,851
Carter15,50375.20%4,78923.23%3251.57%10,71451.97%20,617
Cheatham10,26867.63%4,65930.69%2551.68%5,60936.94%15,182
Chester4,68473.07%1,62425.34%1021.59%3,06047.73%6,410
Claiborne7,61774.84%2,43323.90%1281.26%5,18450.94%10,178
Clay1,74761.95%1,03736.77%361.28%71025.18%2,820
Cocke8,45973.85%2,80424.48%1911.67%5,65549.37%11,454
Coffee13,02367.62%5,87030.48%3661.90%7,15337.14%19,259
Crockett3,78368.81%1,66930.36%460.83%2,11438.45%5,498
Cumberland18,65373.73%6,26124.75%3841.52%12,39248.98%25,298
Davidson97,62239.76%143,12058.29%4,7921.95%-45,498-18.53%245,534
Decatur2,87467.61%1,30330.65%741.74%1,57136.96%4,251
DeKalb4,14364.40%2,17433.79%1161.81%1,96930.61%6,433
Dickson11,29663.34%6,23334.95%3061.71%5,06328.39%17,835
Dyer9,92171.81%3,75727.19%1381.00%6,16444.62%13,816
Fayette12,68964.83%6,68834.17%1971.00%6,00130.66%19,574
Fentress5,24376.04%1,56122.64%911.32%3,68253.40%6,895
Franklin10,26263.66%5,60334.76%2541.58%4,65928.90%16,119
Gibson12,88365.51%6,56433.38%2201.11%6,31932.13%19,667
Giles6,91564.03%3,76034.82%1241.15%3,15529.21%10,799
Grainger5,47075.43%1,66823.00%1141.57%3,80252.43%7,252
Greene17,24572.19%6,22526.06%4171.75%11,02046.13%23,887
Grundy2,51659.38%1,64338.78%781.84%87320.60%4,237
Hamblen14,52272.49%5,23426.13%2761.38%9,28846.36%20,032
Hamilton79,93356.39%58,83641.51%2,9722.10%21,09714.88%141,741
Hancock1,52774.63%47523.22%442.15%1,05251.41%2,046
Hardeman4,86546.60%5,48252.51%920.89%-617-5.91%10,439
Hardin7,88675.14%2,46723.51%1421.35%5,41951.63%10,495
Hawkins14,38272.50%5,08825.65%3671.85%9,29446.85%19,837
Haywood2,96039.11%4,56960.36%400.53%-1,609-21.25%7,569
Henderson7,42173.80%2,51725.03%1171.17%4,90448.77%10,055
Henry8,19364.31%4,33934.06%2071.63%3,85430.25%12,739
Hickman4,75862.59%2,69835.49%1461.92%2,06027.10%7,602
Houston1,57952.16%1,40046.25%481.59%1795.91%3,027
Humphreys3,83355.85%2,90542.33%1251.82%92813.52%6,863
Jackson2,38356.96%1,73941.56%621.48%64415.40%4,184
Jefferson13,03874.25%4,23224.10%2891.65%8,80650.15%17,559
Johnson4,61174.44%1,48323.94%1001.62%3,12850.50%6,194
Knox109,70763.60%59,39934.43%3,4011.97%50,30829.17%172,507
Lake1,16355.73%88442.36%401.91%27913.37%2,087
Lauderdale4,61653.12%4,01146.16%620.72%6056.96%8,689
Lawrence10,77070.77%4,23727.84%2121.39%6,53342.93%15,219
Lewis3,11766.40%1,44730.83%1302.77%1,67035.57%4,694
Lincoln9,80373.88%3,29024.80%1751.32%6,51349.08%13,268
Loudon16,70775.69%5,05822.91%3081.40%11,64952.78%22,073
Macon5,26076.18%1,55222.48%931.34%3,70853.70%6,905
Madison21,99354.03%18,36745.13%3420.84%3,6268.90%40,702
Marion6,27260.26%3,95337.98%1841.76%2,31922.28%10,409
Marshall6,83263.61%3,72534.68%1841.71%3,10728.93%10,741
Maury20,70862.74%11,82535.83%4731.43%8,88326.91%33,006
McMinn12,96772.71%4,60925.84%2581.45%8,35846.87%17,834
McNairy7,01571.57%2,64526.98%1421.45%4,37044.59%9,802
Meigs2,73468.97%1,16329.34%671.69%1,57139.63%3,964
Monroe11,73171.80%4,37226.76%2351.44%7,35945.04%16,338
Montgomery30,24554.28%24,49943.97%9761.75%5,74610.31%55,720
Moore2,05373.35%70525.19%411.46%1,34848.16%2,799
Morgan4,66971.79%1,72526.52%1101.69%2,94445.27%6,504
Obion8,81471.68%3,32127.01%1621.31%5,49344.67%12,297
Overton4,77562.30%2,80536.60%841.10%1,97025.70%7,664
Perry1,57860.21%99237.85%511.94%58622.36%2,621
Pickett1,71269.79%71229.03%291.18%1,00040.76%2,453
Polk4,10867.80%1,85630.63%951.57%2,25237.17%6,059
Putnam17,25467.66%7,80230.60%4441.74%9,45237.06%25,500
Rhea7,80273.67%2,62824.82%1601.51%5,17448.85%10,590
Roane14,72469.82%6,01828.53%3481.65%8,70641.29%21,090
Robertson17,64367.11%8,29031.53%3561.36%9,35335.58%26,289
Rutherford60,84661.56%36,41436.84%1,5881.60%24,43224.72%98,848
Scott5,11776.74%1,45221.78%991.48%3,66554.96%6,668
Sequatchie3,54168.72%1,48928.90%1232.38%2,05239.82%5,153
Sevier25,98476.73%7,41821.91%4621.36%18,56654.82%33,864
Shelby135,64936.50%232,44362.55%3,5240.95%-96,794-26.05%371,616
Smith4,49563.41%2,47034.84%1241.75%2,02528.57%7,089
Stewart2,96357.93%2,06940.45%831.62%89417.48%5,115
Sullivan43,56272.74%15,32125.58%1,0041.68%28,24147.16%59,887
Sumner46,00370.28%18,57928.38%8751.34%27,42441.90%65,457
Tipton16,67269.23%7,13329.62%2761.15%9,53939.61%24,081
Trousdale1,61255.49%1,24042.69%531.82%37212.80%2,905
Unicoi5,03271.01%1,91327.00%1411.99%3,11944.01%7,086
Union4,28273.35%1,47825.32%781.33%2,80448.03%5,838
Van Buren1,38660.26%87538.04%391.70%51122.22%2,300
Warren8,01061.54%4,75236.51%2531.95%3,25825.03%13,015
Washington32,80868.30%14,32529.82%8991.88%18,48338.48%48,032
Wayne4,25377.52%1,16321.20%701.28%3,09056.32%5,486
Weakley8,60569.75%3,54828.76%1841.49%5,05740.99%12,337
White6,19767.80%2,79530.58%1481.62%3,40237.22%9,140
Williamson69,85072.59%25,14226.13%1,2331.28%44,70846.46%96,225
Wilson36,10969.98%14,69528.48%7931.54%21,41441.50%51,597

| | Democratic Republican

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

  • Houston (largest city: Erin)
  • Jackson (largest town: Gainesboro)

By congressional district

Mitt Romney swept the state and carried seven of the state's nine congressional districts, all represented by Republicans. Barack Obama carried the state's two congressional districts, the 5th and 9th, anchored by the two largest cities of Nashville and Memphis, respectively.

DistrictRomneyObamaRepresentative
72.7%25.7%
Phil Roe
67.3%30.9%John J. Duncan, Jr.
63.3%35.1%Chuck Fleischmann
65.3%33.1%Scott DesJarlais
42.5%55.9%Jim Cooper
69.1%29.5%Diane Black
65.7%32.9%Marsha Blackburn
66.1%32.8%Stephen Fincher
20.9%78.3%Steve Cohen

References

References

  1. (November 6, 2012). "Tennessee Voter Turnout in 2012". Tennessee Secretary of State.
  2. "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Tennessee".
  3. Moskowitz, Seth. (March 2, 2020). "The Road to 270: Tennessee".
  4. Skelley, Geoffrey. "County winners, 1836-2016".
  5. "U.S. Census Bureau QuickFacts: Hardeman County, Tennessee".
  6. "U.S. Census Bureau QuickFacts: Haywood County, Tennessee".
  7. Rothenberg, Stuart. (October 3, 2017). "What Happened to Mountain Republicans in the South?".
  8. "State of Tennessee Democratic presidential primary".
  9. "Primary and Caucus Printable Calendar". [[CNN]].
  10. "Presidential Primary Dates". [[Federal Election Commission]].
  11. [[Nate Silver]]. (March 4, 2012). "Romney Could Win Majority of Super Tuesday Delegates". [[FiveThirtyEight]].
  12. "Tennessee Republican Primary - Election Results". The New York Times.
  13. "Election results March 2012. County totals".
  14. (2012-03-08). "Election 2012: Tennessee Republican Primary". [[The New York Times]].
  15. (2012-03-29). "America's Choice 2012 Election Center - Results: Tennessee". [[CNN]].
  16. (2012). "2012 Tennessee Primary". [[Fox News]].
  17. "Huffington Post Election Dashboard". [[HuffPost]].
  18. "America's Choice 2012 Election Center: CNN Electoral Map". [[CNN]].
  19. "Election 2012 - The Electoral Map: Building a Path to Victory". [[The New York Times]].
  20. "2012 Presidential Election Results". The Washington Post.
  21. "RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Battle for White House".
  22. "PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM".
  23. "Nate Silver's political calculations predict 2012 election outcome".
  24. Nir, David. (November 19, 2020). "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2020, 2016, and 2012".
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