2012 United States presidential election in New Jersey

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Incumbent Barack Obama ran unopposed in the Democratic primary held on June 5, 2012. He received 283,673 votes according to the Secretary of State, though county clerks' websites report write-in votes as well. The state's 172 delegates voted unanimously for Obama at the 2012 Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Republican primary

The Republican primary occurred on June 5, 2012.

New Jersey sent 50 delegates to the Republican National Convention on August 5, 2012. All 50 delegates were awarded by a winner-take-all statewide vote. New Jersey Republican Party rules obligate and require the delegates to cast their vote for the winner of the primary on the first 3 ballots at the convention.

General election

Predictions

Candidate ballot access

• Barack Obama/Joseph Biden, Democratic
• Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan, Republican
• Merlin Miller/Harry Bertram, American Third Position
• Virgil Goode/Jim Clymer, Constitution
• Jill Stein/Cheri Honkala, Green
• Gary Johnson/James P. Gray, Libertarian
• Rocky Anderson/Luis J. Rodriguez, Justice
• Jeff Boss/Bob Pasternak, NSA Did 911
• Peta Lindsay/Yari Osorio, Socialism and Liberation
• James Harris/Maura Deluca, Socialist Workers

Effects of Hurricane Sandy on voting

Due to the difficulty of getting to polling places because of the damage caused by Hurricane Sandy, voters who were displaced were allowed to request absentee ballots through email, which they would then return by email or fax, as well as mailing the original ballot back by November 19.

Various issues and delays were subsequently incurred. Officials were not prepared for the 15 minutes that it took to validate each request, and received many requests from voters not displaced who incorrectly believed they were eligible to participate in the program; due to these delays, email voting was extended until Friday, November 9, at 8 PM. Requests had to be submitted by 5 PM on November 6.

It is likely that Obama's response to the hurricane, approved by 77% of Obama voters (with 8% disapproving and 15% unsure) and 44% (with 21% disapproving and 35% unsure) of Romney's voters, boosted his performance in New Jersey, which was hit hard by the superstorm.

Results

| | | | | | ]]

-Blue municipalities won by Obama

-Red municipalities won by Romney]]

By county

|[[File:Swing in each NJ county from the 2008-2012 presidential elections.svg|300px]]|Shift by county |[[File:Trend in each NJ county from the 2008-2012 presidential elections.svg|300px]]|Trend relative to the state by county | | | | | | | | | | | | | |}}}}}}

By congressional district

Obama won eight of 12 congressional districts, including two that elected Republicans.

Analysis

New Jersey was one of just six states that voted more Democratic in 2012 than it had in 2008. In 2008, Obama won the state by roughly 602,000 votes, whereas in 2012, this margin increased to about 648,000 votes. Obama's increased statewide margin owed itself to larger Democratic margins in several central and northern counties. In Middlesex, Hudson, Passaic, and Union Counties collectively, Obama netted nearly 45,000 additional votes compared to 2008. Outside of these four counties, most others in the state had comparable margins to 2008.

Turnout patterns relative to 2008 arguably helped Obama increase his statewide margin. Every county cast fewer votes in 2012 than in 2008, but not uniformly so. Perhaps due to the effects of Hurricane Sandy, conservative Monmouth County saw the largest percentage decrease in votes cast from 2008, with Ocean County also witnessing a substantial decline in votes cast. In the northwestern part of the state, strongly Republican Sussex and Warren County experienced moderately lower turnout. In terms of raw votes cast, Passaic County, which was strongly Democratic, came closest to its 2008 figures, with just 5,000 fewer votes cast in 2012 than in 2008.

Obama's improved performance was quite unusual as his performance worsened in most other areas of the nation (particularly the Midwest and Rust Belt). It is likely this was due to his widely approved response to Hurricane Sandy, which had a devastating effect on the state, causing two million households to lose power, destroying 346,000 homes, and causing blockades on bridges and roads for up to two weeks. Obama's response to the superstorm also likely contributed to his improved performance. According to a poll conducted by ABC News and The Washington Post, not only did 77% of Obama's voters approve of his handling of the storm (with 8% disapproving and 15% unsure), he also received a plurality amongst Romney voters, with 44% approving of his handling, 21% disapproving, and 35% unsure. Another poll by the Pew Research Center found that 67% of registered voters approved of Obama's response with only 15% disapproving. Chris Christie, the state's Republican governor called Obama's response to the hurricane "outstanding" and praised him for his frequent coordination with the New Jersey government, potentially boosted his popularity amongst Republican voters.

Notes

References

References

1. "General Election Data - 1924 to 2022".
2. "New Jersey Division of Elections Official General Election Results".
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4. (July 23, 2012). "Official List Candidates for president For PRIMARY ELECTION 06/05/2012 Election". New Jersey Department of State - Division of Elections.
5. (November 17, 2012). "New Jersey Democratic Delegation 2012". The Green Papers.
6. "Primary and Caucus Printable Calendar". [[CNN]].
7. "Presidential Primary Dates". [[Federal Election Commission]].
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16. (September 13, 2012). "Official List Candidates for president For GENERAL ELECTION 11/06/2012 Election". New Jersey Secretary of State - Division of Elections.
17. "New Jersey's email voting suffers major glitches, deadline extended to Friday".
18. Sternstein, Aliya. (November 6, 2012). "New Jersey email votes shouldn’t be counted yet, experts say". [[Government Executive.
19. Freiss, Steve. (November 26, 2012). "Sandy disrupts N.J. email voting". [[Politico]].
20. Clement, Jon Cohen, Peyton M. Craighill and Scott. (2012-10-31). "WaPo-ABC tracking poll: High marks for President Obama on Hurricane Sandy response". [[The Washington Post]].
21. "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts".
22. Chris Smith (New Jersey politician). (January 2, 2013). "Floor statement on Sandy supplemental". [[United States House of Representatives]].
23. Star-Ledger, Mike Frassinelli/The. (2012-11-02). "N.J. to get $10M in emergency relief to repair roads, bridges in wake of Sandy".
24. Cassidy, John. (4 November 2012). "How Much Did Hurricane Sandy Help Obama?".
25. Robillard, Kevin. "Christie heaps praise on Obama".