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2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Kentucky
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| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| election_name | 2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Kentucky |
| country | Kentucky |
| type | legislative |
| ongoing | no |
| previous_election | 2010 United States House of Representatives elections in Kentucky |
| previous_year | 2010 |
| next_election | 2014 United States House of Representatives elections in Kentucky |
| next_year | 2014 |
| seats_for_election | All 6 Kentucky seats to the United States House of Representatives |
| election_date | November 6, 2012 |
| party1 | Republican Party (United States) |
| last_election1 | 4 |
| seats1 | 5 |
| seat_change1 | 1 |
| popular_vote1 | 1,027,582 |
| percentage1 | 58.87% |
| swing1 | 3.48% |
| party2 | Democratic Party (United States) |
| last_election2 | 2 |
| seats2 | 1 |
| seat_change2 | 1 |
| popular_vote2 | 684,744 |
| percentage2 | 39.23% |
| swing2 | 1.84% |
| map_image | |
| map_caption |
Republican Democratic The 2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Kentucky were held on Tuesday, November 6, 2012, to elect the six U.S. representatives from the state of Kentucky, one from each of the state's six congressional districts. The elections coincided with the elections of other federal and state offices, including a quadrennial presidential election. Primary elections were held on May 22, 2012.
Overview
| United States House of Representatives elections in Kentucky, 2012 | Party | Votes | Percentage | Seats | +/– |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 1,027,582 | 58.87% | 5 | +1 | |
| Democratic | 684,744 | 39.23% | 1 | -1 | |
| Libertarian | 4,914 | 0.28% | 0 | — | |
| Others | 28,137 | 1.61% | 0 | — | |
| Totals | 1,745,377 | 100.00% | 6 | — |
Redistricting
Redistricting legislation was passed by both houses of the Kentucky General Assembly and signed into law by Governor Steve Beshear on February 10, 2012.
District 1
Whitfield:
Hatchett:
Republican Ed Whitfield, who had represented the 1st district since 1995, ran for re-election. In redistricting, the 1st district was made slightly more competitive, but continues to strongly favor Republicans.
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Ed Whitfield, incumbent U.S. Representative
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Charles Kendall Hatchett, real estate broker and nominee for this seat in 2010
Eliminated in primary
- James Buckmaster
Declined
- Brent Yonts, state representative
Primary results
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | November 5, 2012 | |
| Rothenberg | November 2, 2012 | |
| Roll Call | November 4, 2012 | |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | November 5, 2012 | |
| NY Times | November 4, 2012 | |
| RCP | November 4, 2012 | |
| The Hill | November 4, 2012 |
Results
District 2
Guthrie:
Republican Brett Guthrie, who had represented the 2nd district since 2009, ran for re-election. In redistricting, the 2nd district was made slightly more favourable to Republicans.
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Brett Guthrie, incumbent U.S. Representative
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- David Lynn Williams, perennial candidate
Declined
- Elaine Walker, former Secretary of State of Kentucky
Libertarian primary
Craig Astor ran as a Libertarian:
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | November 5, 2012 | |
| Rothenberg | November 2, 2012 | |
| Roll Call | November 4, 2012 | |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | November 5, 2012 | |
| NY Times | November 4, 2012 | |
| RCP | November 4, 2012 | |
| The Hill | November 4, 2012 |
Results
District 3
Yarmuth: Democrat John Yarmuth, who had represented the 3rd district since 2007, ran for re-election. The 3rd district was made more favorable to Democrats in redistricting.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- John Yarmuth, incumbent U.S. Representative
Eliminated in primary
- Burrel Charles Farnsley, perennial candidate
Primary results
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Brooks Wicker, financial advisor and candidate for this seat in 2010
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | November 5, 2012 | |
| Rothenberg | November 2, 2012 | |
| Roll Call | November 4, 2012 | |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | November 5, 2012 | |
| NY Times | November 4, 2012 | |
| RCP | November 4, 2012 | |
| The Hill | November 4, 2012 |
Results
District 4
62.1%**
59.9%**
35.0%
36.7%
|[[File:2012 Kentucky's 4th congressional district election results map by county.svg|230px]]|Regular election county results
|[[File:2012 Kentucky's 4th congressional district special election results map by county.svg|230px]]|Special election county results}}
Adkins:
Republican Geoff Davis, who had represented 4th district from 2005 to 2012, resigned due to family health issues. In redistricting, the 4th district was made more favorable to Republicans.
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Thomas Massie, Lewis County judge-executive
Eliminated in primary
- Walter Christian Schumm, building contractor
- Marcus Carey, lawyer
- Gary Moore, Boone County judge-executive
- Brian Oerther, teacher
- Alecia Webb-Edgington, state representative
- Tom Wurtz, business consultant
Declined
- Hunter Bates, former chief of staff to Senator Mitch McConnell
- Kenny Brown, Boone County Clerk
- Ben Dusing, lawyer and former assistant U.S. Attorney
- Trey Grayson, former Secretary of State of Kentucky
- Adam Koenig, state representative
- K. Lance Lucas, lawyer and son of former Democratic U.S. Representative Ken Lucas
- Rick Robinson, aide to former senator Jim Bunning
- Kevin Sell, businessman
- Katie Stine, President Pro Tempore of the Kentucky Senate
- Damon Thayer, state senator
Primary results
| | | | ]]
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Bill Adkins, lawyer and chair of the Grant County Democratic Party
Eliminated in primary
- Greg Frank, military veteran
Declined
- Kenny French, former Gallatin County Judge-Executive
- Patrick Hughes, attorney
- Linda Klembara, president of the Kentucky Women's Network
- Darrell Link, Grant County Judge-Executive
- Ken Rechtin, Campbell County Commissioner
- Nathan Smith, vice chairman of the Kentucky Democratic Party
- Diane Whalen, Mayor of Florence
Primary results
Special election
Results
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | November 5, 2012 | |
| Rothenberg | November 2, 2012 | |
| Roll Call | November 4, 2012 | |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | November 5, 2012 | |
| NY Times | November 4, 2012 | |
| RCP | November 4, 2012 | |
| The Hill | November 4, 2012 |
Results
District 5
Rogers:
Stepp:
Republican Hal Rogers, who had represented the 5th district since 1981, ran for re-election. The 5th district was made slightly more competitive in redistricting.
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Hal Rogers, incumbent U.S. Representative
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Kenneth Stepp, lawyer
Eliminated in primary
- Michael Ackerman
Primary results
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | November 5, 2012 | |
| Rothenberg | November 2, 2012 | |
| Roll Call | November 4, 2012 | |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | November 5, 2012 | |
| NY Times | November 4, 2012 | |
| RCP | November 4, 2012 | |
| The Hill | November 4, 2012 |
Results
District 6
Barr:
Chandler:
Democrat Ben Chandler, who had represented the 6th district since 2004, ran for re-election.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Ben Chandler, incumbent U.S. Representative
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Andy Barr, attorney and nominee for this seat in 2010
Eliminated in primary
- Patrick J. Kelly II
- Curtis Kenimer
Primary results
General election
Randolph S. Vance ran as a write-in candidate.
Endorsements
Organizations
- Blue Dog Coalition
- Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee "Frontline" Program
Organizations
- National Republican Congressional Committee "Young Guns" Program
Polling
| Poll | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| source | Date(s) | ||||||
| administered | Sample | ||||||
| size | Margin of | ||||||
| error | Ben | ||||||
| Chandler (D) | Andy | ||||||
| Barr (R) | Randolph | ||||||
| Vance (I) | Undecided | ||||||
| Public Opinion Strategies (R-Barr) | September 30–October 1, 2012 | 400 | ± % | 49% | 46% | — | 5% |
| Mellman (D-Chandler) | September 10–13, 2012 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 51% | 37% | 3% | 9% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R-Barr) | June 24–26, 2012 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 47% | 42% | — | 13% |
| Mellman (D-Chandler) | March 26–28, 2012 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 54% | 30% | — | 16% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R-Barr) | February 20–21, 2012 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 49% | 42% | — | 9% |
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | November 5, 2012 | |
| Rothenberg | November 2, 2012 | |
| Roll Call | November 4, 2012 | |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | November 5, 2012 | |
| NY Times | November 4, 2012 | |
| RCP | November 4, 2012 | |
| The Hill | November 4, 2012 |
Results
References
References
- "2012 Kentucky Election Calendar".
- Brammer, Jack. (February 10, 2012). "Beshear approves new congressional map that splits Jessamine". [[Lexington Herald-Leader]].
- Alessi, Ryan. (December 29, 2011). "U.S. Rep. Whitfield to run again in 2012, responds to questions about donations and residency". cn|2.
- Alessi, Ryan. (August 22, 2011). "It's not too soon for 2014 and beyond for these potential Democratic candidates". Pure Politics.
- (November 5, 2012). "The Cook Political Report — Charts – 2012 House Competitive Races". Cookpolitical.com.
- (November 2, 2012). "House Ratings". Rothenbergpoliticalreport.com.
- [http://www.rollcall.com/politics/race-ratings-chart-2012-house-elections.html], {{As of. 2012. 11. 04
- [http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/category/2012-house/ Crystal Ball], {{As of. 2012. 11. 05
- [http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/ratings/house House Race Ratings], ''The New York Times'', {{As of. 2012. 11. 04
- [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/house/2012_elections_house_map.html], {{As of. 2012. 11. 04
- (November 3, 2012). "House Ratings". The Hill.
- [http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_county/KY_US_House_0522.html?SITE=CSPANELN&SECTION=POLITICS AP primary results]
- [https://archive.today/20121205055621/http://apps.sos.ky.gov/elections/candidatefilings/statewide/default.aspx?id=4 Candidate fillings]
- Alessi, Ryan. (September 5, 2011). "U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth to run for fourth term in 2012". cn|2.
- Carroll, James R.. (May 22, 2012). "Three U.S. House races in Kentucky will be reruns this fall". [[The Courier-Journal]].
- Alessi, Ryan. (October 6, 2011). "Republican Brooks Wicker to run for Kentucky's 3rd Congressional District". cn|2.
- (February 17, 2012). "7 Republicans file to run for Davis' 4th District seat". [[The Courier-Journal]].
- Alessi, Ryan. (December 20, 2011). "4th District Update: Moore announces; Sen. Stine, Rep. Koeing and Lance Lucas considering it". cn|2.
- Toeplitz, Shira. (December 19, 2011). "Hunter Bates Won't Run to Succeed Geoff Davis in Kentucky". [[Roll Call]].
- Alessi, Ryan. (December 15, 2011). "Potential GOP 4th District candidates praise Geoff Davis as they mull running in '12". Pure Politics.
- Alessi, Ryan. (January 2, 2012). "4th District Update: Ben Dusing out; Webb-Edgington hires Davis' spokesman as manager". cn|2.
- Gerth, Joseph. (December 16, 2011). "Candidates stampede to fill open 4th District congressional seat". [[The Courier-Journal]].
- Alessi, Ryan. (December 29, 2011). "N.Ky. Update: Koenig runs for re-election not Congress; Shawn Baker's 1st fundraiser for Senate". cn|2.
- Van Benschoten}}{{Dead link, Amanda. (December 17, 2011). "Sell will not run for Congress in 2012". [[The Cincinnati Enquirer]].
- Weber, Don. (December 20, 2011). "Boone Judge-Exec Gary Moore tells fellow official he is in the 4th Congressional race". cn|2.
- Toeplitz, Shira. (December 15, 2011). "Former McConnell Staffer Considers Kentucky House Run". [[Roll Call]].
- (May 22, 2012). "Lewis Countian Thomas Massie Wins GOP Nomination in Ky. 4th District". [[WSAZ-TV]].
- Van Benschoten}}{{Dead link, Amanda. (December 17, 2011). "NKY Dems: We'll field a candidate for Congress". [[The Cincinnati Enquirer]].
- Weber, Don. (December 22, 2011). "4th District Update: GOP's Ben Dusing preparing to run; Florence Mayor not running". cn|2.
- "Official Results". Kentucky Secretary of State.
- (February 1, 2012). "Manchester Attorney Files to Challenge Congressman Hal Rogers". [[WFPL]]}} {{Dead link.
- Adams, Steve. (May 22, 2012). "Kentucky's primary election has low turnout". [[WOWK-TV]].
- Alessi, Ryan. (February 12, 2012). "Analysis: New congressional map only slightly moves the political needle in the 6 districts". cn|2.
- "Andy Barr: Walking a fine line for Congress - State Government and Politics - Kentucky.com".
- Hohmann, James. (June 9, 2011). "Barr launching a rematch with Chandler". [[Politico (newspaper).
- Carroll, James R.. (February 7, 2012). "4 Kentucky congressmen are unopposed in primary". [[The Courier-Journal]].
- "Blue Dog Membership". Blue Dog Coalition.
- "2012 Frontline Democrats". DCCC.
- "CANDIDATES".
- [https://web.archive.org/web/20161014034731/https://www.scribd.com/doc/108994076/KY-06-Public-Opinion-Strategies-for-Andy-Barr-NRCC-Oct-2012 Public Opinion Strategies (R-Barr)]
- [http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/ChandlerPollMemoSeptember2012_0.pdf Mellman (D-Chandler)]
- [https://web.archive.org/web/20130702074257/http://atr.rollcall.com/kentucky-barr-poll-shows-him-behind-by-5-points/ Public Opinion Strategies (R-Barr)]
- [https://www.scribd.com/doc/91990158/KY-06-Mellman-Group-for-Ben-Chandler-March-2012 Mellman (D-Chandler)]
- [https://images.politico.com/global/2012/04/andy_barr_ky_6_memo_release_april_2012.html Public Opinion Strategies (R-Barr)]
- (November 5, 2012). "The Cook Political Report — Charts – 2012 House Competitive Races". Cookpolitical.com.
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