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2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Arkansas

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Summary

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FieldValue
election_name2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Arkansas
countryArkansas
typelegislative
ongoingno
previous_election2010 United States House of Representatives elections in Arkansas
previous_year2010
next_election2014 United States House of Representatives elections in Arkansas
next_year2014
seats_for_electionAll 4 Arkansas seats to the United States House of Representatives
election_date
party1Republican Party (United States)
last_election13
seats14
seat_change11
popular_vote1637,591
percentage161.42%
swing15.17%
party2Democratic Party (United States)
last_election21
seats20
seat_change21
popular_vote2304,770
percentage229.36%
swing211.72%
party3Green Party (United States)
last_election30
seats30
seat_change3
popular_vote357,706
percentage35.56%
map_image
map_caption
swing3New

Republican Democratic The 2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Arkansas occurred on Tuesday, November 6, 2012, to elect the four U.S. representatives from the state, one from each of the state's four congressional districts. The elections coincided with the elections of other federal and state offices, including a quadrennial presidential election.

As the result of redistricting following the 2010 United States census, the boundaries of the state's congressional districts were redrawn by the then Democratic legislature. Democratic Governor Mike Beebe, who signed the new map into law in April 2011, described it as the "status quo" and not partisan. In the new map, five counties are split between districts, the first time in Arkansas history that counties have not been kept intact in congressional districts.

Overview

Statewide

The table below shows the total number and percentage of votes, as well as the number of seats gained and lost by each political party in the election for the United States House of Representatives in Arkansas.

United States House of Representatives elections in Arkansas, 2012PartyVotesPercentageSeats+/–
Republican637,59161.4%4+1
Democratic304,77029.4%0-1
Green57,7065.6%0-
Libertarian37,9873.7%0-
Totals1,038,054100%4

By district

Results of the 2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Arkansas by district:

DistrictRepublicanDemocraticGreenLibertarianTotalResultRepublican Party (United States)}}"Democratic Party (United States)}}"Green Party (United States)}}"Libertarian Party (United States)}}"Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%
District 1138,80056.23%96,60139.13%6,4272.60%5,0152.03%246,843100.0%Republican Hold
District 2158,17555.19%113,15639.48%8,5662.99%6,7012.34%286,598100.0%Republican Hold
District 3186,46775.90%00.00%39,31816.01%19,8758.09%245,660100.0%Republican Hold
District 4154,14959.53%95,01336.69%4,8071.86%4,9841.93%258,953100.0%Republican Gain
Total637,59161.42%304,77029.36%57,7065.56%37,9873.66%1,038,054100.0%

District 1

Crawford:
Ellington:
The 1st district had lost population, and so was drawn in the new map to incorporate counties in southeastern Arkansas which were previously a part of the 4th district. Republican incumbent Rick Crawford was first elected in 2010.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • Rick Crawford, incumbent U.S. Representative

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • Scott Ellington, prosecuting attorney
Eliminated in primary
  • Clark Hall, state representative
  • Gary Latanich, professor of economics at Arkansas State University

Declined

  • Paul Bookout, president pro tempore of the Arkansas Senate;
  • L. J. Bryant, business owner and nominee for Land Commissioner in 2010
  • Chad Causey, former chief of staff to U.S. Representative Marion Berry and nominee for this seat in 2010
  • David Cook, former state representative and candidate for this seat in 2010
  • Keith Ingram, state representative
  • Robert S. Moore Jr., Speaker of the state house of representatives;
  • Steve Rockwell, businessman (who had considered running in 2010)
  • Robert F. Thompson, state senator

Endorsements

Organizations

  • Blue Dog Coalition

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorScott
EllingtonClark
HallGary
LatanichUndecided
Talk Business/Hendrix CollegeApril 24–25, 2012497± 4.4%15%10%4%71%

Primary results

Green primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • Jacob Holloway, graduate student at Arkansas State University.

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • Jessica Paxton, wife of Libertarian Party of Arkansas chairman Rodger Paxton

General election

Endorsements

Organizations

  • National Republican Congressional Committee "Patriot" Program
  • NRA Political Victory Fund
  • National Right to Life Committee
  • United States Chamber of Commerce

Labor unions

  • AFL-CIO
  • National Association of Letter Carriers
  • National Education Association
  • United Steelworkers

Organizations

  • Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee "Emerging Races" Program

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorRick
Crawford (R)Scott
Ellington (D)Undecided
Anzalone Liszt Research Ellington (D)July 16–18, 2012401±4.9%47%45%8%

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political ReportNovember 5, 2012
RothenbergNovember 2, 2012
Roll CallNovember 4, 2012
Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 5, 2012
NY TimesNovember 4, 2012
RCPNovember 4, 2012
The HillNovember 4, 2012

Results

District 2

Population growth in Arkansas's central counties meant that the 2nd district had to shrink in the new map. Under the new map, the 2nd district is likely to continue to favor Republicans.

Republican incumbent Timothy Griffin was first elected in 2010.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • Tim Griffin, incumbent U.S. Representative

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • Herb Rule, attorney and former state representative

Declined

  • David Boling, former chief of staff to U.S. Representative Vic Snyder and candidate for this seat in 2010
  • Bob Edwards, attorney (who had considered running in 2010)
  • John Charles Edwards, state representative
  • Drew Pritt, political consultant
  • Bill Halter, former Lieutenant Governor of Arkansas and candidate for Senate in 2010
  • Pat Hays, Mayor of North Little Rock;
  • David Johnson, state senator
  • Jay Martin, lawyer and former state representative
  • Tracy Steele, state representative
  • Robbie Wills, former speaker of the state House of Representatives and candidate for this seat in 2010

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • Chris Hayes

General election

Endorsements

Organizations

  • Gun Owners of America
  • NRA Political Victory Fund
  • National Right to Life Committee
  • United States Chamber of Commerce

Labor unions

  • National Education Association
  • United Steelworkers

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political ReportNovember 5, 2012
RothenbergNovember 2, 2012
Roll CallNovember 4, 2012
Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 5, 2012
NY TimesNovember 4, 2012
RCPNovember 4, 2012
The HillNovember 4, 2012

Results

District 3

Population growth in Arkansas's northwestern counties meant that the 3rd district had to shrink in the new map. Under the new map, the 3rd district is likely to continue to favor Republicans.

Republican incumbent Steve Womack was first elected in 2010.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • Steve Womack, incumbent U.S. Representative

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • Ken Aden, former director for West Memphis-based nonprofit Residents 4 Arkansas

Green primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • Rebekah Kennedy, nominee for Senate in 2008 and for state attorney general in 2010.

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • David Pangrac, Libertarian Party of Arkansas Vice Chairman

General election

Campaign

Aden would withdraw from the race after admitting to exaggerating his military record. Under Arkansas law, the Democratic Party was unable to field a replacement candidate for Aden and no Democrat appeared on the general election ballot. On August 14, 2012, Kennedy received the endorsement of the Arkansas state AFL-CIO labor union.

Endorsements

Organizations

  • NRA Political Victory Fund
  • National Right to Life Committee
  • United States Chamber of Commerce

Labor unions

  • United Steelworkers

Labor unions

  • AFL-CIO

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political ReportNovember 5, 2012
RothenbergNovember 2, 2012
Roll CallNovember 4, 2012
Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 5, 2012
NY TimesNovember 4, 2012
RCPNovember 4, 2012
The HillNovember 4, 2012

Results

District 4

Cotton:
Jeffress:
Under the new map, the 4th district loses some territory in the east of the state to the 1st district and gains some Republican-leaning northwestern Arkansas counties from the 3rd district. The district also gains Yell County from the 2nd district, which is expected to make the 4th district more favorable to Democrats.

Democratic incumbent Mike Ross, who was first elected in 2000, chose not to seek re-election.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • Gene Jeffress, state senator
Eliminated in primary
  • D.C. Morrison, businessman and candidate for Senate in 2010
  • Q. Byrum Hurst Jr., attorney and small business owner
Declined
  • Robin Carroll, prosecutor and former legal counsel to the Democratic Party;
  • Conner Eldridge, U.S. Attorney for the Western District of Arkansas
  • Steve Faris, former state senator
  • Greg Hale, consultant for The Markham Group;
  • Steve Harrelson, state senator
  • Mike Hathorn, former state representative and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2010
  • Carlton Jones, prosecutor from Texarkana
  • Chris Masingill, head of the Delta Regional Authority and a former staff member for Ross and Governor Mike Beebe
  • Bruce Maloch, state representative
  • Gregg Reep, state representative
  • Mike Ross, incumbent U.S. Representative
  • Larry Teague, state senator
  • Chris Thomason, former state representative and chancellor of the University of Arkansas Community College at Hope
  • Jeff Weaver, district director for Mike Ross
  • Hank Wilkins, state representative

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorQ. Byrum
HurstGene
JeffressD.C.
MorrisonUndecided
Talk Business/Hendrix CollegeMay 10, 2012418± 4.8%23%22%11%44%

Primary results

Primary runoff results

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • Tom Cotton, consultant and Army reservist
Eliminated in primary
  • John Cowart, police officer and currently serving U.S. Marine Corps Reserve lieutenant colonel in Afghanistan
  • Beth Anne Rankin, teacher, former Miss Arkansas & nominee for this seat in 2010

Withdrew

  • Marcus Richmond, business owner and retired Marine Corps lieutenant colonel

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorTom
CottonJohn
CowartBeth Anne
RankinUndecided
Talk Business/Hendrix CollegeMay 10, 2012437± 4.7%51%6%33%10%
Talk Business/Hendrix CollegeApril 17, 2012542± 4.2%38.5%4%38.5%19%

Primary results

Green primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • J. Joshua Drake

Libertarian primary

Bobby Tullis had considered seeking Libertarian nomination for the seat; however in December 2011 Tullis gave his support to Republican candidate Beth Anne Rankin; nevertheless, he was subsequently nominated as the Libertarian candidate.

Candidates

Nominee
  • Bobby Tullis, former Democratic state representative and unsuccessful Green Party nominee for state treasurer in 2010

General election

Endorsements

Labor unions

  • AFL-CIO
  • National Association of Letter Carriers
  • National Education Association
  • United Steelworkers

Organizations

  • Club for Growth
  • Eagle Forum
  • Gun Owners of America
  • National Right to Life Committee
  • Tea Party Express
  • United States Chamber of Commerce

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political ReportNovember 5, 2012
RothenbergNovember 2, 2012
Roll CallNovember 4, 2012
Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 5, 2012
NY TimesNovember 4, 2012
RCPNovember 4, 2012
The HillNovember 4, 2012

Results

References

References

  1. DeMillo, Andrew. (April 14, 2011). "Beebe signs Ark. redistricting plan into law". [[San Antonio Express-News]].
  2. MacNeil, Kelly. (April 14, 2011). "Beebe Says Redistricting Map Isn't Partisan". [[KUAR]].
  3. "New York Times Election Results 2012". The New York Times.
  4. Barnes}}{{Dead link, Steve. (April 15, 2011). "Steve Barnes: Congressional redistricting brings state something new". [[The Baxter Bulletin]].
  5. (July 6, 2011). "Possible 1st District candidates". [[Arkansas Times]].
  6. (October 17, 2011). "Rep. Clark Hall to enter first district congressional race". Talk Business & Politics.
  7. Cook, Michael. (November 2, 2011). "First District Democrats Have Contested Primary". Talk Business & Politics.
  8. Merchant, Nomaan. (September 7, 2011). "3 Democrats not running in Arkansas' 1st District". [[Arkansas Democrat-Gazette]].
  9. Brock, Roby. (April 22, 2011). "Arkansas Election Line: New Congressional options". The City Wire.
  10. Brantley, Max. (September 7, 2011). "Chad Causey won't run again in 2012". [[Arkansas Times]].
  11. Miller, Joshua. (June 2, 2011). "Race Ratings: Can Democrats Reclaim Arkansas Territory?". [[Roll Call]].
  12. [http://talkbusiness.net/2012/04/first-district-democrats-far-from-decided-on-nominee-crawford/ Talk Business/Hendrix College]
  13. "Candidates". NRCC.
  14. "Upcoming Election - Arkansas".
  15. "Arkansas Endorsements". National Right to Life.
  16. "Help With Voting".
  17. (August 14, 2012). "Arkansas AFL-CIO endorses Democrats, Green Party candidate in House races, but not Herb Rule". [[The Republic (Columbus)]].
  18. "NALC-ENDORSED CONGRESSIONAL CANDIDATES". NALC.
  19. "RED TO BLUE 2012". DCCC.
  20. [https://web.archive.org/web/20121005212947/http://scottellington.com/assets/files/SummaryAR01-GE-Poll-July-2012.pdf Anzalone Liszt Research Ellington (D)]
  21. (November 5, 2012). "The Cook Political Report — Charts – 2012 House Competitive Races". Cookpolitical.com.
  22. (November 2, 2012). "House Ratings". Rothenbergpoliticalreport.com.
  23. [http://www.rollcall.com/politics/race-ratings-chart-2012-house-elections.html], {{As of. 2012. 11. 04
  24. [http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/category/2012-house/ Crystal Ball], {{As of. 2012. 11. 05
  25. [http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/ratings/house House Race Ratings], ''The New York Times'', {{As of. 2012. 11. 04
  26. [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/house/2012_elections_house_map.html], {{As of. 2012. 11. 04
  27. (November 3, 2012). "House Ratings". The Hill.
  28. [http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/AR/42843/113233/en/summary.html AR – Election Results]
  29. (July 27, 2011). "Chris Thomason, David Boling Not Seeking U.S. House Seats". [[Arkansas Business Publishing Group.
  30. (October 16, 2011). "Edwards is staying in the state house - will not run for Congress". Tolbert Report.
  31. Clark, Lauren. (November 1, 2011). "Drew Pritt drops out of Arkansas Congressional Race". [[KTHV.
  32. (August 23, 2011). "Pat Hays political future a source of speculation". Talk Business & Politics.
  33. Brantley, Max. (January 17, 2012). "Jay Martin confirms interest in 2nd District Congress". [[Arkansas Times]].
  34. Demillo, Andrew. (August 30, 2011). "Democrat announces for NW Arkansas congressional seat". [[Arkansas Democrat-Gazette]].
  35. (May 15, 2012). "Rebekah Kennedy". [[Arkansas Secretary of State]].
  36. Brantley, Max. (July 9, 2012). "Ken Aden dropping out of 3rd District congressional race". [[Arkansas Democrat-Gazette]].
  37. (July 27, 2011). "In Ross's wake". [[Arkansas Times]].
  38. Demillo, Andrew. (August 29, 2011). "Rankin, Jeffress launch congressional bids in Ark.". [[RealClearPolitics]].
  39. Brock, Roby. (February 27, 2012). "Democrat Q. Byrum Hurst Enters Fourth District Congressional Race". Talk Business & Politics.
  40. (July 25, 2011). "Ross will not seek re-election in 2012 (updated)". Talk Business & Politics.
  41. Catanese, David. (July 25, 2011). "Can Dems hold the Ross seat?". [[Politico]].
  42. Brock, Roby. (January 18, 2012). "Greg Hale's Name Surfaces In Fourth District Congressional Race". Talk Business & Politics.
  43. Brock, Roby. (December 12, 2011). "Ross District Director Rules Out Fourth District Run". Talk Business & Politics.
  44. [http://talkbusiness.net/2012/05/fourth-district-democrats-run-off-likely-as-large-undecided-vote-still-looms/ Talk Business/Hendrix College]
  45. Brantley, Max. (December 12, 2011). "Another (armed)candidate for 4th District Congress". [[Arkansas Times]].
  46. [http://talkbusiness.net/2012/05/fourth-district-gop-cotton-opens-lead-on-rankin/ Talk Business/Hendrix College]
  47. [http://talkbusiness.net/2012/04/fourth-district-gop-primary-a-dead-heat/ Talk Business/Hendrix College]
  48. Tolbert, Jason. (November 1, 2011). "Fourth District Gains More Candidates - Cowart and Tullis". Talk Business & Politics.
  49. (12 February 2013). "2012 Candidates Endorsed By Eagle Forum PAC".
  50. (January 27, 2012). "2012 ENDORSEMENTS".
  51. (November 5, 2012). "The Cook Political Report — Charts – 2012 House Competitive Races". Cookpolitical.com.
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