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2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Arkansas
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| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| election_name | 2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Arkansas |
| country | Arkansas |
| type | legislative |
| ongoing | no |
| previous_election | 2010 United States House of Representatives elections in Arkansas |
| previous_year | 2010 |
| next_election | 2014 United States House of Representatives elections in Arkansas |
| next_year | 2014 |
| seats_for_election | All 4 Arkansas seats to the United States House of Representatives |
| election_date | |
| party1 | Republican Party (United States) |
| last_election1 | 3 |
| seats1 | 4 |
| seat_change1 | 1 |
| popular_vote1 | 637,591 |
| percentage1 | 61.42% |
| swing1 | 5.17% |
| party2 | Democratic Party (United States) |
| last_election2 | 1 |
| seats2 | 0 |
| seat_change2 | 1 |
| popular_vote2 | 304,770 |
| percentage2 | 29.36% |
| swing2 | 11.72% |
| party3 | Green Party (United States) |
| last_election3 | 0 |
| seats3 | 0 |
| seat_change3 | |
| popular_vote3 | 57,706 |
| percentage3 | 5.56% |
| map_image | |
| map_caption | |
| swing3 | New |
Republican Democratic The 2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Arkansas occurred on Tuesday, November 6, 2012, to elect the four U.S. representatives from the state, one from each of the state's four congressional districts. The elections coincided with the elections of other federal and state offices, including a quadrennial presidential election.
As the result of redistricting following the 2010 United States census, the boundaries of the state's congressional districts were redrawn by the then Democratic legislature. Democratic Governor Mike Beebe, who signed the new map into law in April 2011, described it as the "status quo" and not partisan. In the new map, five counties are split between districts, the first time in Arkansas history that counties have not been kept intact in congressional districts.
Overview
Statewide
The table below shows the total number and percentage of votes, as well as the number of seats gained and lost by each political party in the election for the United States House of Representatives in Arkansas.
| United States House of Representatives elections in Arkansas, 2012 | Party | Votes | Percentage | Seats | +/– |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 637,591 | 61.4% | 4 | +1 | |
| Democratic | 304,770 | 29.4% | 0 | -1 | |
| Green | 57,706 | 5.6% | 0 | - | |
| Libertarian | 37,987 | 3.7% | 0 | - | |
| Totals | 1,038,054 | 100% | 4 | — |
By district
Results of the 2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Arkansas by district:
| District | Republican | Democratic | Green | Libertarian | Total | Result | Republican Party (United States)}}" | Democratic Party (United States)}}" | Green Party (United States)}}" | Libertarian Party (United States)}}" | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District 1 | 138,800 | 56.23% | 96,601 | 39.13% | 6,427 | 2.60% | 5,015 | 2.03% | 246,843 | 100.0% | Republican Hold | |||||||||||||
| District 2 | 158,175 | 55.19% | 113,156 | 39.48% | 8,566 | 2.99% | 6,701 | 2.34% | 286,598 | 100.0% | Republican Hold | |||||||||||||
| District 3 | 186,467 | 75.90% | 0 | 0.00% | 39,318 | 16.01% | 19,875 | 8.09% | 245,660 | 100.0% | Republican Hold | |||||||||||||
| District 4 | 154,149 | 59.53% | 95,013 | 36.69% | 4,807 | 1.86% | 4,984 | 1.93% | 258,953 | 100.0% | Republican Gain | |||||||||||||
| Total | 637,591 | 61.42% | 304,770 | 29.36% | 57,706 | 5.56% | 37,987 | 3.66% | 1,038,054 | 100.0% |
District 1
Crawford:
Ellington:
The 1st district had lost population, and so was drawn in the new map to incorporate counties in southeastern Arkansas which were previously a part of the 4th district. Republican incumbent Rick Crawford was first elected in 2010.
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Rick Crawford, incumbent U.S. Representative
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Scott Ellington, prosecuting attorney
Eliminated in primary
- Clark Hall, state representative
- Gary Latanich, professor of economics at Arkansas State University
Declined
- Paul Bookout, president pro tempore of the Arkansas Senate;
- L. J. Bryant, business owner and nominee for Land Commissioner in 2010
- Chad Causey, former chief of staff to U.S. Representative Marion Berry and nominee for this seat in 2010
- David Cook, former state representative and candidate for this seat in 2010
- Keith Ingram, state representative
- Robert S. Moore Jr., Speaker of the state house of representatives;
- Steve Rockwell, businessman (who had considered running in 2010)
- Robert F. Thompson, state senator
Endorsements
Organizations
- Blue Dog Coalition
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| administered | Sample | ||||||
| size | Margin of | ||||||
| error | Scott | ||||||
| Ellington | Clark | ||||||
| Hall | Gary | ||||||
| Latanich | Undecided | ||||||
| Talk Business/Hendrix College | April 24–25, 2012 | 497 | ± 4.4% | 15% | 10% | 4% | 71% |
Primary results
Green primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Jacob Holloway, graduate student at Arkansas State University.
Libertarian primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Jessica Paxton, wife of Libertarian Party of Arkansas chairman Rodger Paxton
General election
Endorsements
Organizations
- National Republican Congressional Committee "Patriot" Program
- NRA Political Victory Fund
- National Right to Life Committee
- United States Chamber of Commerce
Labor unions
- AFL-CIO
- National Association of Letter Carriers
- National Education Association
- United Steelworkers
Organizations
- Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee "Emerging Races" Program
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| administered | Sample | |||||
| size | Margin of | |||||
| error | Rick | |||||
| Crawford (R) | Scott | |||||
| Ellington (D) | Undecided | |||||
| Anzalone Liszt Research Ellington (D) | July 16–18, 2012 | 401 | ±4.9% | 47% | 45% | 8% |
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | November 5, 2012 | |
| Rothenberg | November 2, 2012 | |
| Roll Call | November 4, 2012 | |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | November 5, 2012 | |
| NY Times | November 4, 2012 | |
| RCP | November 4, 2012 | |
| The Hill | November 4, 2012 |
Results
District 2
Population growth in Arkansas's central counties meant that the 2nd district had to shrink in the new map. Under the new map, the 2nd district is likely to continue to favor Republicans.
Republican incumbent Timothy Griffin was first elected in 2010.
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Tim Griffin, incumbent U.S. Representative
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Herb Rule, attorney and former state representative
Declined
- David Boling, former chief of staff to U.S. Representative Vic Snyder and candidate for this seat in 2010
- Bob Edwards, attorney (who had considered running in 2010)
- John Charles Edwards, state representative
- Drew Pritt, political consultant
- Bill Halter, former Lieutenant Governor of Arkansas and candidate for Senate in 2010
- Pat Hays, Mayor of North Little Rock;
- David Johnson, state senator
- Jay Martin, lawyer and former state representative
- Tracy Steele, state representative
- Robbie Wills, former speaker of the state House of Representatives and candidate for this seat in 2010
Libertarian primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Chris Hayes
General election
Endorsements
Organizations
- Gun Owners of America
- NRA Political Victory Fund
- National Right to Life Committee
- United States Chamber of Commerce
Labor unions
- National Education Association
- United Steelworkers
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | November 5, 2012 | |
| Rothenberg | November 2, 2012 | |
| Roll Call | November 4, 2012 | |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | November 5, 2012 | |
| NY Times | November 4, 2012 | |
| RCP | November 4, 2012 | |
| The Hill | November 4, 2012 |
Results
District 3
Population growth in Arkansas's northwestern counties meant that the 3rd district had to shrink in the new map. Under the new map, the 3rd district is likely to continue to favor Republicans.
Republican incumbent Steve Womack was first elected in 2010.
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Steve Womack, incumbent U.S. Representative
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Ken Aden, former director for West Memphis-based nonprofit Residents 4 Arkansas
Green primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Rebekah Kennedy, nominee for Senate in 2008 and for state attorney general in 2010.
Libertarian primary
Candidates
Nominee
- David Pangrac, Libertarian Party of Arkansas Vice Chairman
General election
Campaign
Aden would withdraw from the race after admitting to exaggerating his military record. Under Arkansas law, the Democratic Party was unable to field a replacement candidate for Aden and no Democrat appeared on the general election ballot. On August 14, 2012, Kennedy received the endorsement of the Arkansas state AFL-CIO labor union.
Endorsements
Organizations
- NRA Political Victory Fund
- National Right to Life Committee
- United States Chamber of Commerce
Labor unions
- United Steelworkers
Labor unions
- AFL-CIO
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | November 5, 2012 | |
| Rothenberg | November 2, 2012 | |
| Roll Call | November 4, 2012 | |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | November 5, 2012 | |
| NY Times | November 4, 2012 | |
| RCP | November 4, 2012 | |
| The Hill | November 4, 2012 |
Results
District 4
Cotton:
Jeffress:
Under the new map, the 4th district loses some territory in the east of the state to the 1st district and gains some Republican-leaning northwestern Arkansas counties from the 3rd district. The district also gains Yell County from the 2nd district, which is expected to make the 4th district more favorable to Democrats.
Democratic incumbent Mike Ross, who was first elected in 2000, chose not to seek re-election.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Gene Jeffress, state senator
Eliminated in primary
- D.C. Morrison, businessman and candidate for Senate in 2010
- Q. Byrum Hurst Jr., attorney and small business owner
Declined
- Robin Carroll, prosecutor and former legal counsel to the Democratic Party;
- Conner Eldridge, U.S. Attorney for the Western District of Arkansas
- Steve Faris, former state senator
- Greg Hale, consultant for The Markham Group;
- Steve Harrelson, state senator
- Mike Hathorn, former state representative and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2010
- Carlton Jones, prosecutor from Texarkana
- Chris Masingill, head of the Delta Regional Authority and a former staff member for Ross and Governor Mike Beebe
- Bruce Maloch, state representative
- Gregg Reep, state representative
- Mike Ross, incumbent U.S. Representative
- Larry Teague, state senator
- Chris Thomason, former state representative and chancellor of the University of Arkansas Community College at Hope
- Jeff Weaver, district director for Mike Ross
- Hank Wilkins, state representative
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| administered | Sample | ||||||
| size | Margin of | ||||||
| error | Q. Byrum | ||||||
| Hurst | Gene | ||||||
| Jeffress | D.C. | ||||||
| Morrison | Undecided | ||||||
| Talk Business/Hendrix College | May 10, 2012 | 418 | ± 4.8% | 23% | 22% | 11% | 44% |
Primary results
Primary runoff results
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Tom Cotton, consultant and Army reservist
Eliminated in primary
- John Cowart, police officer and currently serving U.S. Marine Corps Reserve lieutenant colonel in Afghanistan
- Beth Anne Rankin, teacher, former Miss Arkansas & nominee for this seat in 2010
Withdrew
- Marcus Richmond, business owner and retired Marine Corps lieutenant colonel
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| administered | Sample | ||||||
| size | Margin of | ||||||
| error | Tom | ||||||
| Cotton | John | ||||||
| Cowart | Beth Anne | ||||||
| Rankin | Undecided | ||||||
| Talk Business/Hendrix College | May 10, 2012 | 437 | ± 4.7% | 51% | 6% | 33% | 10% |
| Talk Business/Hendrix College | April 17, 2012 | 542 | ± 4.2% | 38.5% | 4% | 38.5% | 19% |
Primary results
Green primary
Candidates
Nominee
- J. Joshua Drake
Libertarian primary
Bobby Tullis had considered seeking Libertarian nomination for the seat; however in December 2011 Tullis gave his support to Republican candidate Beth Anne Rankin; nevertheless, he was subsequently nominated as the Libertarian candidate.
Candidates
Nominee
- Bobby Tullis, former Democratic state representative and unsuccessful Green Party nominee for state treasurer in 2010
General election
Endorsements
Labor unions
- AFL-CIO
- National Association of Letter Carriers
- National Education Association
- United Steelworkers
Organizations
- Club for Growth
- Eagle Forum
- Gun Owners of America
- National Right to Life Committee
- Tea Party Express
- United States Chamber of Commerce
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | November 5, 2012 | |
| Rothenberg | November 2, 2012 | |
| Roll Call | November 4, 2012 | |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | November 5, 2012 | |
| NY Times | November 4, 2012 | |
| RCP | November 4, 2012 | |
| The Hill | November 4, 2012 |
Results
References
References
- DeMillo, Andrew. (April 14, 2011). "Beebe signs Ark. redistricting plan into law". [[San Antonio Express-News]].
- MacNeil, Kelly. (April 14, 2011). "Beebe Says Redistricting Map Isn't Partisan". [[KUAR]].
- "New York Times Election Results 2012". The New York Times.
- Barnes}}{{Dead link, Steve. (April 15, 2011). "Steve Barnes: Congressional redistricting brings state something new". [[The Baxter Bulletin]].
- (July 6, 2011). "Possible 1st District candidates". [[Arkansas Times]].
- (October 17, 2011). "Rep. Clark Hall to enter first district congressional race". Talk Business & Politics.
- Cook, Michael. (November 2, 2011). "First District Democrats Have Contested Primary". Talk Business & Politics.
- Merchant, Nomaan. (September 7, 2011). "3 Democrats not running in Arkansas' 1st District". [[Arkansas Democrat-Gazette]].
- Brock, Roby. (April 22, 2011). "Arkansas Election Line: New Congressional options". The City Wire.
- Brantley, Max. (September 7, 2011). "Chad Causey won't run again in 2012". [[Arkansas Times]].
- Miller, Joshua. (June 2, 2011). "Race Ratings: Can Democrats Reclaim Arkansas Territory?". [[Roll Call]].
- [http://talkbusiness.net/2012/04/first-district-democrats-far-from-decided-on-nominee-crawford/ Talk Business/Hendrix College]
- "Candidates". NRCC.
- "Upcoming Election - Arkansas".
- "Arkansas Endorsements". National Right to Life.
- "Help With Voting".
- (August 14, 2012). "Arkansas AFL-CIO endorses Democrats, Green Party candidate in House races, but not Herb Rule". [[The Republic (Columbus)]].
- "NALC-ENDORSED CONGRESSIONAL CANDIDATES". NALC.
- "RED TO BLUE 2012". DCCC.
- [https://web.archive.org/web/20121005212947/http://scottellington.com/assets/files/SummaryAR01-GE-Poll-July-2012.pdf Anzalone Liszt Research Ellington (D)]
- (November 5, 2012). "The Cook Political Report — Charts – 2012 House Competitive Races". Cookpolitical.com.
- (November 2, 2012). "House Ratings". Rothenbergpoliticalreport.com.
- [http://www.rollcall.com/politics/race-ratings-chart-2012-house-elections.html], {{As of. 2012. 11. 04
- [http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/category/2012-house/ Crystal Ball], {{As of. 2012. 11. 05
- [http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/ratings/house House Race Ratings], ''The New York Times'', {{As of. 2012. 11. 04
- [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/house/2012_elections_house_map.html], {{As of. 2012. 11. 04
- (November 3, 2012). "House Ratings". The Hill.
- [http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/AR/42843/113233/en/summary.html AR – Election Results]
- (July 27, 2011). "Chris Thomason, David Boling Not Seeking U.S. House Seats". [[Arkansas Business Publishing Group.
- (October 16, 2011). "Edwards is staying in the state house - will not run for Congress". Tolbert Report.
- Clark, Lauren. (November 1, 2011). "Drew Pritt drops out of Arkansas Congressional Race". [[KTHV.
- (August 23, 2011). "Pat Hays political future a source of speculation". Talk Business & Politics.
- Brantley, Max. (January 17, 2012). "Jay Martin confirms interest in 2nd District Congress". [[Arkansas Times]].
- Demillo, Andrew. (August 30, 2011). "Democrat announces for NW Arkansas congressional seat". [[Arkansas Democrat-Gazette]].
- (May 15, 2012). "Rebekah Kennedy". [[Arkansas Secretary of State]].
- Brantley, Max. (July 9, 2012). "Ken Aden dropping out of 3rd District congressional race". [[Arkansas Democrat-Gazette]].
- (July 27, 2011). "In Ross's wake". [[Arkansas Times]].
- Demillo, Andrew. (August 29, 2011). "Rankin, Jeffress launch congressional bids in Ark.". [[RealClearPolitics]].
- Brock, Roby. (February 27, 2012). "Democrat Q. Byrum Hurst Enters Fourth District Congressional Race". Talk Business & Politics.
- (July 25, 2011). "Ross will not seek re-election in 2012 (updated)". Talk Business & Politics.
- Catanese, David. (July 25, 2011). "Can Dems hold the Ross seat?". [[Politico]].
- Brock, Roby. (January 18, 2012). "Greg Hale's Name Surfaces In Fourth District Congressional Race". Talk Business & Politics.
- Brock, Roby. (December 12, 2011). "Ross District Director Rules Out Fourth District Run". Talk Business & Politics.
- [http://talkbusiness.net/2012/05/fourth-district-democrats-run-off-likely-as-large-undecided-vote-still-looms/ Talk Business/Hendrix College]
- Brantley, Max. (December 12, 2011). "Another (armed)candidate for 4th District Congress". [[Arkansas Times]].
- [http://talkbusiness.net/2012/05/fourth-district-gop-cotton-opens-lead-on-rankin/ Talk Business/Hendrix College]
- [http://talkbusiness.net/2012/04/fourth-district-gop-primary-a-dead-heat/ Talk Business/Hendrix College]
- Tolbert, Jason. (November 1, 2011). "Fourth District Gains More Candidates - Cowart and Tullis". Talk Business & Politics.
- (12 February 2013). "2012 Candidates Endorsed By Eagle Forum PAC".
- (January 27, 2012). "2012 ENDORSEMENTS".
- (November 5, 2012). "The Cook Political Report — Charts – 2012 House Competitive Races". Cookpolitical.com.
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