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2011 National Assembly for Wales election

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FieldValue
election_name2011 National Assembly for Wales election
countryWales
typeparliamentary
ongoingno
previous_year2007
next_election2016 National Assembly for Wales election
next_year2016
seats_for_electionAll 60 seats to the National Assembly for Wales
majority_seats31
election_date5 May 2011
1blankConstituency Vote
2blank% and swing
3blankRegional Vote
4blank% and swing
turnout42.2% 1.5%
image1
leader1Carwyn Jones
party1Welsh Labour
leader_since11 December 2009
leaders_seat1Bridgend
last_election126 seats
seats130
seat_change14
1data1401,677
2data142.3% 10.1%
3data1349,935
4data136.9% 7.3%
image2
leader2Nick Bourne
party2Welsh Conservatives
leader_since218 August 1999
leaders_seat2Mid and West Wales (defeated)
last_election212 seats
seats214
seat_change22
1data2237,388
2data225.0% 2.6%
3data2213,773
4data222.5% 1.0%
image4
leader4Ieuan Wyn Jones
party4Plaid Cymru
leader_since44 August 2000
leaders_seat4Ynys Môn
last_election415 seats
seats411
seat_change44
1data4182,907
2data419.3% 3.1%
3data4169,799
4data417.9% 3.1%
image5
leader5Kirsty Williams
party5Welsh Liberal Democrats
leader_since58 December 2008
leaders_seat5Brecon and Radnorshire
last_election56 seats
seats55
seat_change51
1data5100,259
2data510.6% 4.2%
3data576,349
4data58.0% 3.7%
titleFirst Minister
posttitleFirst Minister after election
before_electionCarwyn Jones
before_partyWelsh Labour
after_electionCarwyn Jones
after_partyWelsh Labour
map_image2011 Senedd Election.svg
map_size300px

The 2011 National Assembly for Wales election was an election for the National Assembly for Wales. The poll was held on 5 May 2011 and decided the incumbency for all the Assembly's seats. It was the fourth election for seats in the National Assembly for Wales (previous elections having been held in 1999, 2003 and 2007), and the second election taken under the rules of the Government of Wales Act 2006.

The election resulted in gains for the incumbent Welsh Labour, which gained four seats compared to the previous election and now had 30 seats, exactly half of the assembly. The party also secured a swing in its favour of over 10 percentage points. The Welsh Conservatives emerged as the largest opposition party with 14 seats, a net gain of two, but party leader Nick Bourne lost his seat. The junior party in the government coalition, the nationalist Plaid Cymru, suffered a drop in its vote and lost 4 seats. The Welsh Liberal Democrats lost significantly in the popular vote and returned five AMs, a loss of one.

British, Irish, Commonwealth and European Union citizens living in Wales aged eighteen or over on election day were entitled to vote. The deadline to register to vote in the election was midnight on 14 April 2011, though anyone who qualified as an anonymous elector had until midnight on 26 April 2011 to register.

It was held on the same day as elections for Northern Ireland's 26 local councils, the Scottish Parliament and Northern Ireland Assembly elections, a number of local elections in England, and the United Kingdom Alternative Vote referendum.

Electoral method

In general elections for the National Assembly for Wales, each voter has two votes in the so called additional member system for mixed-member proportional representation. The first vote may be used to vote for a candidate to become the Assembly Member for the voter's constituency, elected by the 'first past the post' system. The second vote may be used to vote for a regional closed party list of candidates. Additional member seats are allocated from the lists by the d'Hondt method, with constituency results being taken into account in the allocation. The overall result is approximately proportional.

Results

  • Overall turnout: 42.2% |- |- !rowspan=3 colspan=2 | Parties !colspan=10 | Additional member system !rowspan=2 colspan=5 | Total seats |- !colspan=5 |Constituency !colspan=5 |Region |- ! Votes !! % !! +/− !! Seats !! +/− ! Votes !! % !! +/− !! Seats !! +/− ! Total !! +/− !! % |- |votes % = 42.3 |AMS votes % = 36.9 |Seats % = 50.0 |votes % = 25.0 |AMS votes % = 22.5 |Seats % = 23.3 |votes % = 19.3 |AMS votes % = 17.9 |Seats % = 18.3 |votes % = 10.6 |AMS votes % = 8.0 |Seats % = 8.3 |votes % = N/A |AMS votes % = 4.6 |Seats % = 0.0 |votes % = 0.2 |AMS votes % = 3.4 |Seats % = 0.0 |votes % = N/A |AMS votes % = 2.4 |Seats % = 0.0 |votes % = 0.7 |AMS votes % = 2.4 |Seats % = 0.0 |votes % = N/A |AMS votes % = 0.9 |Seats % = 0.0 |votes % = N/A |AMS votes % = 0.3 |Seats % = 0.0 |votes % = 0.1 |AMS votes % = 0.2 |Seats % = 0.0 |votes % = N/A |AMS votes % = 0.2 |Seats % = 0.0 |votes % = N/A |AMS votes % = 0.1 |Seats % = 0.0 |votes % = 1.3 |AMS votes % = 0.1 |Seats % = 0.0 |votes % = 0.3 |AMS votes % = N/A |Seats % = 0.0 |votes % = 0.2 |AMS votes % = N/A |Seats % = 0.0 |- | || Total || 949,252 || || || 40 || || 949,388 || || || 20 || || 60 || || |}

(source:)

Votes summary

Opinion polls

Constituency vote ([[First-past-the-post voting|FPTP]])

Date(s)
conductedPolling organisation/clientLabConsPlaidLib DemOthersLead
5 May 2011Welsh Assembly election results, 201142.3%25.0%19.3%10.6%2.8%17.3%
4 May 2011YouGov/ITV Wales47%20%18%9%6%27%
2 May 2011YouGov/ITV Wales45%21%18%8%7%24%
14 April 2011YouGov/ITV Wales49%20%17%8%6%29%
7 April 2011rmg:Clarity/Western Mail51%20%17%8%5%31%
30 March 2011YouGov/ITV Wales47%21%17%8%6%26%
8 March 2011YouGov/ITV Wales48%20%19%7%7%28%
26 January 2011YouGov/ITV Wales45%21%21%7%6%24%
22 December 2010YouGov/ITV Wales44%23%21%6%6%21%
24 November 2010YouGov/ITV Wales44%21%21%9%6%23%
27 November 2010YouGov/ITV Wales44%19%21%9%8%23%
3 May 20072007 National Assembly for Wales election32.2%22.4%22.4%14.8%8.2%9.8%

Regional vote ([[Mixed-member proportional representation|AMS]])

Date(s)
conductedPolling organisation/clientLabConsPlaidLib DemUKIPGreenOthersLead
5 May 2011Welsh Assembly election results, 2011 (regional)36.9%22.5%17.9%8.0%4.6%3.4%6.7%14.4%
14 April 2011YouGov/ITV Wales44%20%18%8%4%2%4%24%
30 March 2011YouGov/ITV Wales45%20%16%8%6%2%2%25%
8 March 2011YouGov/ITV Wales45%20%18%5%5%4%2%25%
26 January 2011YouGov/ITV Wales41%20%21%8%4%2%4%20%
22 December 2010YouGov/ITV Wales42%22%21%5%5%3%2%20%
24 November 2010YouGov/ITV Wales41%20%20%9%4%3%4%21%
27 October 2010YouGov/ITV Wales40%18%23%9%6%2%3%17%
27 October 2010YouGov/ITV Wales40%18%23%9%6%2%3%17%
3 May 2007National Assembly for Wales election, 2007 (regional)29.6%21.4%21.0%11.7%4.0%3.5%8.8%8.2%

Constituency and regional summary

Constituency nominations

NB: candidates in bold text were the incumbent assembly members. Non-incumbents are represented in italics. Members elected in 2011 are highlighted with party colours.

ConstituencyConservativeLabourLiberal DemocratsPlaid CymruOthersResult
AberavonTJ MorganDavid ReesHelen Ceri ClarkePaul Nicholls JonesLabour hold
AberconwyJanet Finch-SaundersEifion Wyn WilliamsMike PriestleyIwan HuwsConservative gain
Alyn and DeesideJohn BellCarl Sargeant Peter Williams Shane BrennanMike Whitby (British National Party)Labour hold
ArfonAled DaviesChristina ReesRhys JonesAlun Ffred JonesPlaid Cymru hold
Blaenau GwentBob HaywoodAlun DaviesMartin BlakebroughDarren JonesJayne Sullivan (Independent)
Brian Urch (British National Party)Labour gain
Brecon and RadnorshireChris DaviesChris LloydKirsty WilliamsGary PriceLD hold
BridgendAlex WilliamsCarwyn JonesBriony DaviesTim ThomasLabour hold
CaerphillyOwen MeredithJeff CuthbertKay DavidRon DaviesAnthony King (British National Party)Labour hold
Cardiff CentralMatt SmithJenny RathboneNigel HowellsChris WilliamsMathab Khan (Independent)Labour gain
Cardiff NorthJonathan MorganJulie MorganMatt SmithBen FodayLabour gain
Cardiff South and PenarthBen GrayVaughan GethingSian Anne CliffLiz MusaLabour hold
Cardiff WestCraig WilliamsMark DrakefordDavid MorganNeil McEvoyLabour hold
Carmarthen East and DinefwrHenrietta HensherAntony JonesWill GriffithsRhodri Glyn ThomasPlaid Cymru hold
Carmarthen West and South PembrokeshireAngela BurnsChristine GwytherSelwyn RunnettNerys EvansConservative hold
CeredigionLuke EvettsRichard BoudierElizabeth EvansElin JonesChris Simpson (Welsh Green Party)Plaid Cymru hold
Clwyd SouthPaul RogersKen SkatesBruce RobertsMabon ap GwynforLabour hold
Clwyd WestDarren MillarCrispin Jones Brian CosseyEifion Lloyd JonesConservative hold
Cynon ValleyDaniel SaxtonChristine ChapmanIan WaltonDafydd Trystan DaviesLabour hold
DelynMatthew WrightSandy MewiesMichele JonesCarrie HarperLabour hold
Dwyfor MeirionnyddSimon BaynesMartyn SingletonSteve ChurchmanLord Elis-ThomasLouise Hughes (Llais Gwynedd)Plaid Cymru hold
GowerCaroline JonesEdwina HartPeter MayDarren PriceLabour hold
IslwynDavid ChippGwyn PriceTom SullivanSteffan LewisPeter Whalley (British National Party)Labour hold
LlanelliAndrew MorganKeith DaviesCheryl PhilpottHelen Mary Jones Sian Caiach (Putting Llanelli First)Labour gain
Merthyr Tydfil and RhymneyChris O'BrienHuw LewisAmy KitcherNoel TurnerTony Rogers (Independent)Labour hold
MonmouthNick RamsayMark WhitcuttJanet EllardFiona CrossSteve Uncles (English Democrats)Conservative hold
MontgomeryshireRussell GeorgeNick ColbourneWyn WilliamsDavid SeniorConservative gain
NeathAlex PowellGwenda ThomasMatthew McCarthyAlun LlewellynMike Green (British National Party)Labour hold
Newport EastNick WebbJohn GriffithsEd TownsendChris PaulLabour hold
Newport WestDavid WilliamsRosemary ButlerElizabeth NewtonLyndon BindingLabour hold
OgmoreMartyn HughesJanice GregoryGerald FrancisDanny ClarkLabour hold
PontypriddJoel JamesMick AntoniwMike PowellIoan BellinKen Owen (Independent)Labour hold
Preseli PembrokeshirePaul DaviesTerry MillsBob KilmisterRhys SinnettConservative hold
RhonddaJames Eric JefferysLeighton AndrewsGeorge SummersSera Evans-FearLabour hold
Swansea EastDan BoucherMichael HedgesSam SamuelDic JonesJoanne Shannon (British National Party)Labour hold
Swansea WestStephen JenkinsJulie JamesRob SpehtCarl HarrisLabour hold
TorfaenNatasha AsgharLynne NeagleWill GriffithsJeff ReesSusan Harwood (British National Party)
Elizabeth Haynes (Independent)Labour hold
Vale of ClwydIan GunningAnn JonesHeather PrydderchAlun Lloyd JonesLabour hold
Vale of GlamorganAngela Jones-EvansJane HuttDamian ChickIan JohnsonLabour hold
WrexhamJohn MarekLesley GriffithsBill BreretonMarc JonesLabour hold
Ynys MônPaul WilliamsJoe LockRhys TaylorIeuan Wyn JonesPlaid Cymru hold

Regional lists

[[Mid and West Wales (National Assembly for Wales electoral region)|Mid and West Wales]]

Ian Harrison, Gareth Ratcliffe, Keith Evans, Stephen Kaye, Dan Munford, Evan Price Matthew Dorrance, Iqbal Malik Mark Cole, Edward Wilson, Steffan John, Gemma Bowker

[[North Wales (National Assembly for Wales electoral region)|North Wales]]

Janet Haworth, Julian Thompson-Hall, Ranil Jayawardena, Samantha Cotton, Martin Peet, Sam Rowlands, John Broughton Heledd Fychan, Dyfed Edwards, Liz Saville Roberts Eleanor Burnham, Mark Young, Anne Williams, Victor Babu

[[South Wales Central (Senedd Cymru electoral region)|South Wales Central]]

Lyn Hudson, Richard Hopkins, Christopher Williams, Kyle Smith, Axel Kaehne, Helen Hancock Chris Franks, Delme Bowen, Richard Grigg Eluned Parrott, Rachael Hitchinson, Elgan Morgan, Andrew Sherwood

[[South Wales East (Senedd Cymru electoral region)|South Wales East]]

Caroline Oag, Benjamin Smith, Paul Pavia, Susannah Beatson-Hird, Paul Williams, Paul Stafford Bleddyn Hancock, Jonathan Clark

[[South Wales West (Senedd Cymru electoral region)|South Wales West]]

David Lloyd, Myfanwy Davies, Linet Purcell Stuart Rice, Cheryl Green, Wayne Morgan, Frank Little

Target seats for the main parties

Below are listed all the constituencies which required a swing of less than 7.5% from the 2007 result to change hands.

Labour targets

RankConstituencyWinning party 2007Swing to gainLabour's place 2007Result
1Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire0.172ndConservative hold
2Clwyd West3.052ndConservative hold
3Preseli Pembrokeshire5.582ndConservative hold
4Llanelli7.042ndLabour gain
5Cardiff North7.192ndLabour gain

Plaid Cymru targets

RankConstituencyWinning party 2007Swing to gainPC's place 2007Result
1Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire0.443rdConservative hold
2Clwyd West3.333rdConservative hold
3Neath3.362ndLabour hold
4Caerphilly4.382ndLabour hold
5Preseli Pembrokeshire6.923rdConservative hold

Conservative targets

RankConstituencyWinning party 2007Swing to gainCon's place 2007Result
1Vale of Glamorgan0.132ndLabour hold
2Vale of Clwyd0.212ndLabour hold
3Delyn1.182ndLabour hold
4Gower2.172ndLabour hold
5Clwyd South2.872ndLabour hold
6Newport West2.962ndLabour hold
7Aberconwy4.092ndConservative gain
8Montgomeryshire4.442ndConservative gain
9Newport East4.733rdLabour hold
10Cardiff South & Penarth5.152ndLabour hold
11Bridgend5.212ndLabour hold
12Wrexham5.783rdLabour hold
13Swansea West6.583rdLabour hold
14Cardiff West6.882ndLabour hold

Liberal Democrat targets

RankConstituencyWinning party 2007Swing to gainLD's place 2007Result
1Newport East2.202ndLabour hold
2Swansea West3.302ndLabour hold
3Wrexham6.054thLabour hold
4Ceredigion6.572ndPlaid Cymru hold
5Pontypridd7.112ndLabour hold

New members

23 of the members elected to the assembly in the election were not members of the previous Assembly.

  • Mick Antoniw, Labour, Pontypridd
  • Byron Davies, Welsh Conservative, South Wales West electoral region
  • Keith Davies, Labour, Llanelli
  • Suzy Davies, Welsh Conservative, South Wales West electoral region
  • Mark Drakeford, Labour, Cardiff West
  • Rebecca Evans, Labour, Mid and West Wales electoral region
  • Janet Finch-Saunders, Welsh Conservative, Aberconwy
  • Russell George, Welsh Conservative, Montgomeryshire
  • Vaughan Gething, Labour, Cardiff South and Penarth
  • Llyr Huws Gruffydd, Plaid Cymru, North Wales electoral region
  • Michael Hedges, Labour, Swansea East
  • Julie James, Labour, Swansea West
  • Julie Morgan, Labour, Cardiff North
  • Eluned Parrott, Liberal Democrat, South Wales Central electoral region
  • William Powell, Liberal Democrat, Mid and West Wales electoral region
  • Gwyn Price, Labour, Islwyn
  • Jenny Rathbone, Labour, Cardiff Central
  • David Rees, Labour, Aberavon
  • Aled Roberts, Liberal Democrat, North Wales electoral region (see below)
  • Antoinette Sandbach, Welsh Conservative, North Wales electoral region
  • Ken Skates, Labour, Clwyd South
  • Simon Thomas, Plaid Cymru, Mid and West Wales electoral region
  • Lindsay Whittle, Plaid Cymru, South Wales East electoral region

On 17 May it was discovered that two of the newly elected AMs, John Dixon and Aled Roberts, held posts which disqualified them from election to the assembly. Although they had formally taken their seats at the first meeting on 11 May, they were then removed from membership of the Assembly. Both resigned the posts which had given rise to the disqualification. After taking legal advice, the Presiding Officer Rosemary Butler was told that she must formally declare their seats vacant on Friday 27 May, which would mean the candidates placed second on the list being elected unless motions were tabled to reinstate the two. Motions to reinstate Dixon and Roberts were subsequently tabled, and the Assembly Commission issued a press statement explaining the legal situation as they saw it.

The Liberal Democrats withdrew the motion to reinstate John Dixon on 5 July 2011, after the assembly standards commissioner Gerard Elias QC made clear that he had failed to take notice of the relevant rules. On 6 July, Eluned Parrott was sworn in as an AM in his place, and the Assembly voted to readmit Aled Roberts, as evidence showed that he had been directed to out-of-date information in Welsh.

Defeated members

Eight incumbent AMs were defeated at the polls.

  • Eleanor Burnham, Liberal Democrat, North Wales electoral region
  • Nick Bourne, Welsh Conservative, Mid and West Wales electoral region
  • Nerys Evans, Plaid Cymru, Mid and West Wales electoral region
  • Chris Franks, Plaid Cymru, South Wales Central electoral region
  • Veronica German, Liberal Democrat, South Wales East electoral region
  • Helen Mary Jones, Plaid Cymru, Llanelli
  • Dai Lloyd, Plaid Cymru, South Wales West electoral region
  • Jonathan Morgan, Welsh Conservative, Cardiff North

Retiring members

The following incumbent AMs did not offer themselves for re-election:

  • Lorraine Barrett, Welsh Labour, Cardiff South and Penarth
  • Mick Bates, Independent (elected Liberal Democrat), Montgomeryshire
  • Alun Cairns, Welsh Conservative, South Wales West electoral region
  • Jane Davidson, Welsh Labour, Pontypridd
  • Andrew Davies, Welsh Labour, Swansea West
  • Brian Gibbons, Welsh Labour, Aberavon
  • Irene James, Welsh Labour, Islwyn
  • Gareth Jones, Plaid Cymru, Aberconwy
  • Trish Law, Independent, Blaenau Gwent
  • Val Lloyd, Welsh Labour, Swansea East
  • Rhodri Morgan, Welsh Labour, Cardiff West
  • Jenny Randerson, Liberal Democrat, Cardiff Central
  • Janet Ryder, Plaid Cymru, North Wales electoral region
  • Karen Sinclair, Welsh Labour, Clwyd South
  • Brynle Williams, Welsh Conservative, North Wales electoral region (died 1 April 2011).

Notes

References

References

  1. (2011-05-06). "Welsh Tory leader Nick Bourne loses regional seat". BBC News.
  2. (16 March 2011). "2015 Welsh assembly election delayed, says Carwyn Jones". [[BBC News]].
  3. [http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2011/14/section/5/enacted Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011] section 5
  4. "2011 Assembly Election Results May 2011". National Assembly for Wales.
  5. The deadline for the receipt and determination of anonymous electoral registration applications was the same as the publication date of the notice of alteration to the Electoral Register (i.e. the fifth working day before election day).
  6. "Results and turnout at the 2011 National Assembly for Wales Election".
  7. "BBC News - Election 2011 - Wales".
  8. (9 February 2011). "Probe into Tory candidates' sexist jokes on Facebook". BBC News.
  9. "Welcome to my website".
  10. "Log in to Facebook".
  11. (2 February 2011). "Labour student to fight Assembly election on Anglesey".
  12. (12 May 2011). "Record of Proceedings". National Assembly for Wales.
  13. (17 May 2011). "Two Welsh AMs temporarily disqualified on technicality". BBC News Online.
  14. Powys, Betsan. (25 May 2011). "The Lib Dem two and the no-named day motion". BBC News Online.
  15. (25 May 2011). "Statement from the National Assembly for Wales Commission". National Assembly for Wales.
  16. (6 July 2011). "Barred Lib Dem Aled Roberts regains Welsh assembly seat". BBC News.
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