2011 Madrilenian regional election

Overview

Under the 1983 Statute of Autonomy, the Assembly of Madrid was the unicameral legislature of the homonymous autonomous community, having legislative power in devolved matters, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.

Electoral system

Voting for the Assembly was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Community of Madrid and in full enjoyment of their political rights, provided that they were not sentenced—by a final court ruling—to deprivation of the right to vote, nor being legally incapacitated. Amendments to the electoral law in 2011 required for Spaniards abroad to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote ().

The Assembly of Madrid was entitled to one seat per each 50,000 inhabitants or fraction greater than 25,000. All members were elected in a single multi-member constituency—corresponding to the autonomous community's territory—using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional voting system, with an electoral threshold of five percent of valid votes (which included blank ballots) being applied regionally. As a result of the aforementioned allocation, the Assembly was entitled to 129 seats, based on the official population figures resulting from the latest revision of the municipal register (as of 1 January 2010).

The law did not provide for by-elections to fill vacated seats; instead, any vacancies that occurred after the proclamation of candidates and into the legislative term were to be covered by the successive candidates in the list and, when required, by the designated substitutes.

Election date

The term of the Assembly of Madrid expired four years after the date of its previous ordinary election, with election day being fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the fifty-fifth day prior to the scheduled election date and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Community of Madrid (BOCM). The previous election was held on 27 May 2007, setting the date for election day on the fourth Sunday of May four years later, which was 22 May 2011.

The regional president had the prerogative to dissolve the Assembly of Madrid and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements were met: namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or within the parliament's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Assembly was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called, which was to be held on the first Sunday following the fifty-fourth day after the call. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances would not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected deputies merely serving out what remained of their original four-year term.

The election to the Assembly of Madrid was officially called on 29 March 2011 with the publication of the corresponding decree in the BOCM, setting election day for 22 May and scheduling for the chamber to reconvene on 7 June.

Outgoing parliament

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of the election call.

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, alliances and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form an alliance ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant electoral commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least 0.5 percent of the electorate in the Community of Madrid, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates. Additionally, a balanced composition of men and women was required in the electoral lists, so that candidates of either sex made up at least 40 percent of the total composition.

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Campaign

Election debates

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Graphical summary

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 65 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Assembly of Madrid (61 in the 2007 election).

;Color key:

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Victory preferences

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Community of Madrid.

;All candidates

;Aguirre vs. Gómez

;Aguirre vs. Jiménez

Predicted President

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood for each leader to become president.

Results

Overall

Elected legislators

The following table lists the elected legislators sorted by order of election:

Aftermath

Government formation

2012 investiture

On 17 September 2012, Esperanza Aguirre announced her resignation as President of the Community of Madrid, being succeeded by Ignacio González.

Notes

References

;Opinion poll sources

;Other

Bibliography

References

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2. {{harvp. Statute. 1983
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4. {{harvp. LOREG. 1985
5. {{harvp. LOREG. 1985
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7. {{harvp. LECM. 1986
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10. {{harvp. LOREG. 1985
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12. {{harvp. LOREG. 1985
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18. (8 October 2009). "Aguirre expulsa del grupo popular a los tres diputados de Madrid imputados en el Gürtel". El País.
19. {{harvp. LOREG. 1985
20. {{harvp. LOREG. 1985
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25. (28 July 2007). "Tomás Gómez ya es el nuevo secretario general del Partido Socialista de Madrid". [[20 minutos]].
26. (3 October 2010). "Tomás Gómez gana a la candidata de Zapatero y disputará a Aguirre la presidencia de Madrid". [[RTVE]].
27. (30 March 2009). "Gregorio Gordo, nuevo coordinador general de IU-Comunidad de Madrid". El Mundo.
28. Serna, C.. (11 December 2009). "Gordo y Pérez, ratificados como los candidatos de IU". El Mundo.
29. (23 October 2010). "Luis de Velasco y David Ortega, candidatos de UPyD a la presidencia de la Comunidad de Madrid y a la alcaldía". [[Europa Press]].
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31. (9 May 2011). "Unos 175.000 madrileños siguieron el debate, cuyo pico de audiencia fue el cara a cara Gómez-Aguirre". Europa Press.
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33. (15 June 2011). "Aguirre, investida presidenta de Madrid por tercera vez". El Mundo.
34. (26 September 2012). "Ignacio González, elegido nuevo presidente de la Comunidad de Madrid". RTVE.