2011 Aragonese regional election

Overview

Under the 2007 Statute of Autonomy, the Cortes of Aragon were the unicameral legislature of the homonymous autonomous community, having legislative power in devolved matters, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.

Electoral system

Voting for the Cortes was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Aragon and in full enjoyment of their political rights, provided that they were not sentenced—by a final court ruling—to deprivation of the right to vote, nor being legally incapacitated. Amendments to the electoral law in 2011 required for Spaniards abroad to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote ().

The Cortes of Aragon were entitled to a minimum of 65 and a maximum of 80 seats, with the electoral law setting its size at 67. All members were elected in three multi-member constituencies—corresponding to the provinces of Huesca, Teruel and Zaragoza, with each being allocated an initial minimum of 13 seats and the remaining 28 being distributed in proportion to their populations (provided that the seat-to-population ratio in the most populated province did not exceed 2.75 times that of the least populated one)—using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional voting system, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes (which included blank ballots) being applied in each constituency. The use of the electoral method resulted in an effective threshold based on the district magnitude and the distribution of votes among candidacies.

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Cortes constituency was entitled the following seats:

The law did not provide for by-elections to fill vacated seats; instead, any vacancies that occurred after the proclamation of candidates and into the legislative term were to be covered by the successive candidates in the list and, when required, by the designated substitutes.

Election date

The term of the Cortes of Aragon expired four years after the date of their previous election, unless they were dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the scheduled date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of Aragon (BOA), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 27 May 2007, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 27 May 2011. The election decree was required to be published in the BOA no later than 3 May 2011, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible date for election day on Sunday, 26 June 2011.

The regional president had the prerogative to dissolve the Cortes of Aragon and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year had elapsed since the previous one. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Cortes were to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.

The election to the Cortes of Aragon was officially called on 29 March 2011 with the publication of the corresponding decree in the BOA, setting election day for 22 May and scheduling for the chamber to reconvene on 21 June.

Outgoing parliament

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of the election call.

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, alliances and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form an alliance ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant electoral commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates. Additionally, a balanced composition of men and women was required in the electoral lists, so that candidates of either sex made up at least 40 percent of the total composition.

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Campaign

Election debates

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 34 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Cortes of Aragon.

;Color key:

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Victory preferences

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Government of Aragon.

;All candidates

;Almunia vs. Rudi

Predicted President

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood for each leader to become president.

Results

Overall

Distribution by constituency

Aftermath

Government formation

Notes

References

;Opinion poll sources

;Other

Bibliography

References

1. {{harvp. Statute. 2007
2. {{harvp. Statute. 2007
3. {{harvp. LEAr. 1987
4. {{harvp. LOREG. 1985
5. {{harvp. LOREG. 1985
6. Reig Pellicer, Naiara. (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote".
7. {{harvp. Statute. 2007
8. {{harvp. LEAr. 1987
9. Gallagher, Michael. (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". [[Trinity College Dublin]].
10. (28 March 2011). "Decreto de 28 de marzo de 2011, del Presidente del Gobierno de Aragón, por el que se convocan elecciones a las Cortes de Aragón".
11. {{harvp. LEAr. 1987
12. {{harvp. LOREG. 1985
13. {{harvp. LEAr. 1987
14. {{harvp. LOREG. 1985
15. {{harvp. Statute. 2007
16. {{harvp. Statute. 2007
17. Lozano, Carles. "Elecciones a las Cortes de Aragón (desde 1983)".
18. Rajadel, Luis. (29 October 2010). "El alcalde de Teruel abandona el PAR". Heraldo de Aragón.
19. {{harvp. LEAr. 1987
20. {{harvp. LOREG. 1985
21. {{harvp. LOREG. 1985
22. (28 September 2008). "Marcelino Iglesias no se presentará a la reelección como presidente de Aragón". [[Libertad Digital]].
23. (10 September 2010). "Eva Almunia, designada candidata socialista a la presidencia de Aragón". [[Heraldo de Aragón]].
24. (25 September 2010). "El PSOE corona a Almunia como sucesora de Iglesias en Aragón". [[El Mundo (Spain).
25. Lasheras Muro, Javier. (8 November 2008). "El 11 Congreso del PP de Aragón elige a Luisa Fernanda Rudi como nueva presidenta con el 84,4% de los votos". Aragón Digital.
26. (27 May 2010). "El PP proclamará candidata a Rudi el sábado y cerrará las demás CCAA en dos meses". [[El Periódico de Aragón]].
27. (24 February 2011). "El Comité Electoral Nacional del PP confirma a Rudi como candidata a la Presidencia de Aragón". [[20 minutos]].
28. (11 March 2011). "El PAR revalidará a Biel como presidente en el Congreso para recuperar la unidad". El Periódico de Aragón.
29. (13 March 2011). "Biel, candidato a la Presidencia de Aragón, critica "los ataques furibundos" contra las autonomías". 20 minutos.
30. (13 January 2008). "Una ajustada votación da a Nieves Ibeas la presidencia de CHA". El Periódico de Aragón.
31. (29 May 2010). "Ibeas, cabeza de lista de CHA a las Cortes por Zaragoza en 2011, y Juan Martín, al Ayuntamiento de la capital". [[Europa Press]].
32. Royo Zaragozano, Alejandro. (12 June 2010). "Nieves Ibeas será la candidata de CHA a las elecciones autonómicas". Aragón Digital.
33. Lasheras Muro, Javier. (21 November 2007). "Adolfo Barrena optará a la reelección de la Coordinación General de IU Aragón". Aragón Digital.
34. Matute Escribano, Adrián. (24 June 2010). "Adolfo Barrena y José Manuel Alonso presentan sus candidaturas para encabezar a IU en Zaragoza y las Cortes". Aragón Digital.
35. (8 February 2010). "Cristina Andreu: "No tenemos aún una postura sobre los Juegos de invierno"". El Periódico de Aragón.
36. (28 November 2010). "Cristina Andreu, candidata de UPyD". El Periódico de Aragón.
37. (15 May 2011). "AragónTV ofrecerá el debate entre Eva Almunia y Luisa Fernanda Rudi". FórmulaTV.
38. (17 May 2011). "76.000 espectadores vieron el debate entre Almunia y Rudi". Heraldo de Aragón.
39. (21 May 2011). "El debate se salda sin propuestas nuevas y sin un claro ganador". El Periódico de Aragón.
40. "Elecciones a Cortes de Aragón. Resultados del año 2011 en Aragón". [[Cortes of Aragon]].
41. "Archivo Electoral de Aragón. Cortes de Aragón 2011. Resultados. Aragón". [[Government of Aragon]].
42. (6 June 2011). "Acuerdo de 1 de junio de 2011, de la Junta Electoral de Aragón, por el que ordena la publicación del resumen de los resultados de las elecciones a las Cortes de Aragón convocadas por Decreto de 28 de marzo de 2011, del Presidente del Gobierno de Aragón, y celebradas el día 22 de mayo de 2011, conforme a los datos que obran en las actas de proclamación de Diputados electos remitidas por las Juntas Electorales Provinciales de Huesca, Teruel y Zaragoza". Official Gazette of Aragon.
43. (13 July 2011). "Rudi, investida presidenta de Aragón con los votos del PP y el apoyo del Par". El País.