2010 United States Senate election in Hawaii

Background

Hawaii last elected a Republican Senator in 1970, and its current delegation to the United States Congress currently consists entirely of Democrats. Democrats have also won Hawaii's electoral votes in every presidential election since Ronald Reagan's landslide election in 1984. The exceptions at the time were then-Governor Linda Lingle (who was serving her second and final term) and then-U.S. Representative Charles Djou, both of whom are Republicans.

Democratic primary

Candidates

• Daniel Inouye, incumbent U.S. Senator
• Andy Woerner, businessman

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

• Campbell Cavasso, former State Representative, candidate for Lieutenant Governor in 2002, and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2004
• Eddie Pirkowski, businessman and U.S. Senate candidate in the 2006 primary
• John Roco

Results

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General election

Candidates

• Democratic: Daniel Inouye
• Republican: Campbell Cavasso
• Green: Jim Brewer
• Libertarian: Lloyd Mallan
• Independent: Jeff Jarrett

Predictions

Campaign

The death of longtime U.S. Senator Robert Byrd allowed Inouye to become the President pro tempore and Chairman of the United States Senate Committee on Appropriations. He made no apologies for bringing home as much federal money as he could, despite Republican insistence that the U.S. government taxed and spent too much, a stance he called a "nice gimmick". The Maui News endorsed his reelection.

Cavasso, the 2004 nominee, won the Republican primary again, and ran on a platform of change, emphasizing the need for a balanced budget. Inouye, who defeated Cavasso in 2004 by 52 percentage points, released TV ads that referred to himself simply as "Dan". The senator was said to be "working" for Hawaii's transportation, high-tech economy, education and other needs.

Polling

A Rasmussen Reports poll of 500 likely voters conducted on October 13 gave Inouye only a thirteen-point lead over Cavasso, and found the Republican with a modest lead among independent voters. However, the poll would ultimately miss the final margin by forty percentage points. FiveThirtyEights Nate Silver awarded the Rasmussen poll his "worst poll award", citing it as evidence of the pollster's bias against Democratic candidates and observing that it was, as of November 2010, the largest error of any electoral poll in the Fivethirtyeight databases going back to 1998.

Fundraising

Results

By county

References

References

1. (2010). "Official Election Results for United States Senate". [[Federal Election Commission]].
2. (September 18, 2010). "Hawaii Senate Primary Results". Politico.
3. "Senate". [[Cook Political Report]].
4. "Senate Ratings". [[Rothenberg Political Report]].
5. "Battle for the Senate". [[RealClearPolitics]].
6. "2010 Senate Ratings". [[Sabato's Crystal Ball]].
7. "Race Ratings Chart: Senate". [[CQ Politics]].
8. "News Clippings".
9. "Cavasso Files For US Senate Run {{!}} Cam Cavasso {{!}} Hawaii Senate Race 2010".
10. [https://www.staradvertiser.com/news/hawaiinews/20101029_Cavasso_undeterred_by_odds_in_campaign_against_Inouye.html Cavasso undeterred by odds in campaign against Inouye - Hawaii News - Staradvertiser.com]
11. "Questions - Hawaii Senate - October 13, 2010".
12. (October 17, 2010). "Election 2010: Hawaii Senate".
13. (November 2, 2010). "Live Blogging the Election Returns".
14. (November 4, 2010). "Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate; Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA Performed Strongly".
15. [https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/hawaii/toplines/toplines_hawaii_senate_june_24_2010 Rasmussen Reports]
16. [http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/hawaii/election_2010_hawaii_senate Rasmussen Reports]
17. [http://www.dailykos.com/polling/2010/10/2/HI/10/uMymt Public Policy Polling]
18. (April 2019). "2010 House and Senate Campaign Finance for Hawaii". fec.gov.
19. "2010 GENERAL ELECTION - State of Hawaii – Statewide".