2010 United States House of Representatives elections in West Virginia

Overview

By district

Results of the 2010 United States House of Representatives elections in West Virginia by district:

District 1

McKinley:
Oliverio:

This conservative"Partisan Voting Index Districts of the 111th Congress." The Cook Political Report. N.p., n.d. Web. 19 June 2011. . district, rooted in the northern counties of West Virginia, had been represented by moderate Democrat Alan Mollohan since he was first elected to replace his father, Bob Mollohan, in 1982. Although John McCain won the district with 58% of the vote in 2008, Mollohan had run unopposed that same year, highlighting Democratic strength amidst changing coalitions.

Running for a fifteenth term, Mollohan faced a serious challenge in the Democratic primary from state Senator Mike Oliverio. Initially, few saw Oliverio as having a credible chance, owing to his late entry into the race, and his decision to run as a more conservative candidate.

Mollohan had previously faced ethics questions on whether he had given earmarks to businesses owned by his friends, earning him criticism from Oliverio as "one of the most corrupt congressmen" and a creature of Washington. Mollohan also faced criticism for some of his votes in Congress. Votes such as those in favor of the Affordable Care Act, and vacillation before ultimately voting against a cap and trade bill, cost him goodwill with formerly allied interest groups and local newspapers.

Mollohan attacked Oliverio as being a Republican running as a Democrat, and focused on his membership in the American Legislative Exchange Council, a conservative lobbying group. Polls from both camps showed different results, and Mollohan raised more money than Oliverio. Ultimately, Congressman Mollohan would be defeated by Oliverio, taking around 44% of the vote to Oliverio's 56%, becoming the first House incumbent to lose that cycle. Mollohan attributed his loss, in part, to attacks by Oliverio he referred to as "totally spurious and totally false", but also acknowledged that the environment had turned strongly against incumbents.

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In the general election, Oliverio, faced Republican nominee David McKinley, a former member of the West Virginia House of Delegates and a former chair of the West Virginia Republican Party. McKinley emerged as the establishment favorite against former state senator Sarah Minear, and both spent sizable amounts of their own money on the race. Both candidates saw their past voting record come under scrutiny, particularly on tax issues. However, a third contender emerged in future West Virginia Secretary of State Mac Warner. Warner was seen as likely to siphon votes from Minear, though in the last days of the race, he faced scrutiny for allegations that his businesses owed nearly $3 million in taxes. McKinley would emerge the victor by 8 points.

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General election

In a year that saw a strong anti-incumbent trend, Oliverio's outsider status was a boon to him, and to some strategists, this made him a stronger candidate than Mollohan would have been. As, Republicans would have preferred to face a bruised Mollohan, an Oliverio campaign was going to prove to be a different challenge for Republicans.

But Oliverio faced serious headwinds, particularly among his party. For one, his refusal to outright back Nancy Pelosi for Speaker of the House was a sticking point among Democratic leaders, and he would eventually shift away from this rhetoric in the late stages of the campaign. He also had trouble winning support with traditional Democratic groups such as the United Mine Workers of America and AFL-CIO, who had supported Mollohan and had endorsed every other Democrat running for Congress in the state except Oliverio. Former West Virginia Secretary of State Ken Hechler, whom Oliverio had tried to primary in 2004, launched a PAC targeting him.

McKinley, meanwhile, boosted by a strong Republican sentiment, made the race into a referendum against Democratic leaders such as Pelosi and Barack Obama, capitalizing on strong outsider sentiment. The campaign between the two was marred by barbs relating to establishment Washington figures. In a debate, McKinley would accuse his Democratic opponent of supporting the agenda of Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama—to which Oliverio responded: "I am not going to Washington to get in touch with the Washington leadership. I'm going to Washington to get the national leadership in step with the people of West Virginia."

Even with a strong national Republican environment, polls in the closing weeks showed a tight race. Fundraising also showed a close but narrow McKinley lead. In the end, Oliverio narrowly lost the election. This would be the first time a Republican would win this district since 1966.

Predictions

District 2

This conservative district, which stretched from metro Charleston in western West Virginia to the Potomac River in the eastern region of the state, has been represented by Republican Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito since 2001. Although Capito faced serious challenges to her re-election in 2006 and 2008, she was not seen as vulnerable this year, with The New York Times declaring this a safe Republican race.

During the race, longtime Senator Robert Byrd died, and Capito was seen as the strongest candidate to challenge Joe Manchin in the special election to fill out the remainder of Byrd's term. Ultimately, Capito declined to enter the race, choosing to run for re-election.

She faced Democratic nominee Virginia Lynch Graf and Constitution Party candidate Phil Hudok in the general election, whom she was able to defeat in an overwhelming landslide to win a sixth term in Congress.

Predictions

District 3

Incumbent Democratic Congressman Nick Rahall had represented this conservative-leaning district, based in the southern portion of the state since he was initially elected in 1976. Rahall had not faced a serious challenge holding onto the state's most Democratic-leaning district since 1990. However, 2010 would prove to be his toughest fight yet.

In the primary, Rahall faced the threat of a primary from state Delegate Ralph Rodighiero, who ultimately would not challenge him. The only primary challenger he would face was Bruce Barilla, who criticized Rahall's "support" for Barack Obama, and his vote for the Matthew Shepard and James Byrd Jr. Hate Crimes Prevention Act. Rahall won the primary with two-thirds of the vote, and Barilla would go on to endorse Rahall's Republican opponent Spike Maynard.

General election

Predictions

Maynard was a former Democrat and a defeated former member of the Supreme Court of Appeals of West Virginia. He had narrowly prevailed in the primary by 433 votes over opponent Marty Gearhart. He had been defeated as a state justice in 2008, due to photos circulating of Maynard and the executive of an energy company Don Blankenship, socializing at a time when Massey, Blankenship's company, had cases before the state's Supreme Court. Rahall would launch ads targeting Maynard and Blankenship's relationship.

Rahall also found himself the subject of negative attacks. One advertisement claimed that Rahall, who is of Lebanese descent, was "good for the Middle East" but "bad for America". Maynard also claimed that Rahall had received "money from a convicted terrorist," although Republican candidates such as George W. Bush also received money from the same individual; Rahall donated the contribution to charity. Despite these attacks, Rahall maintained a significant lead in polls. In the end, Rahall defeated Maynard and won an eighteenth term in Congress.

References

References

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18. Berman, Russell. (2010-10-23). "Speaker Nancy Pelosi is the No. 1 issue in tight West Virginia House race".
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20. Isenstadt, Alex. (2010-08-10). "Oliverio could lose labor support".
21. Greenwire, PATRICK REIS of. "Appalachian Dems Seek Distance From Obama on Coal, Climate - NYTimes.com".
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39. Femme, Cherchez La. (2010-06-03). "The Anti-Gay Sex Candidate: or The Birth of the Bleeding-Heart Conservative".
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46. Jr, Ken Ward. (2010-10-06). "Rahall takes on Maynard's ties to Blankenship; Maynard wants feds out of mine safety regulation".
47. (2010-10-22). "Dem repeatedly attacked for being of Arab descent".
48. Terkel, Amanda. (October 13, 2010). "Spike Maynard's New Ad Accuses Opponent Of Taking Money From A 'Terrorist,' Even Though GOP Has Also Accepted Funds". [[Huffington Post]].
49. (2010-10-02). "New Poll Puts Rahall Ahead By 25".