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2010 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona

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2010 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona

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FieldValue
election_name2010 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona
countryArizona
typelegislative
ongoingno
previous_election2008 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona
previous_year2008
election_date
next_election2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona
next_year2012
seats_for_electionAll 8 Arizona seats to the United States House of Representatives
turnout55.65%
party1Republican Party (United States)
last_election13
seats15
seat_change12
popular_vote1900,510
percentage153.03%
swing19.00%
party2Democratic Party (United States)
last_election25
seats23
seat_change22
popular_vote2711,837
percentage241.92%
swing23.55%
map_image{{Switcher
map_caption

| [[File:2010 Arizona United States House of Representatives election by Congressional District.svg|230px]] | District results | [[File:2010 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona results map by county.svg|230px]] | County results}} Republican Democratic

The 2010 congressional elections in Arizona were held on November 2, 2010, to determine who would represent the state of Arizona in the United States House of Representatives. Arizona had eight seats in the House, apportioned according to the 2000 United States census. Representatives were elected for two-year terms; those elected were to serve in the 112th Congress from January 3, 2011, until January 3, 2013.

The state's 2009-2010 delegation consisted of five Democrats and three Republicans. With the exception of Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick, who had won the open seat in District 1 during the previous election, all members of the delegation were incumbents who had served for at least a full term in Congress. Also, with the exception of retiring Republican John Shadegg of District 3, all incumbent members of the state's delegation ran for re-election.

As of August 17, 2010, Districts 1, 5 and 8, all held by Democrats, were considered to be competitive by both CQ Politics and The Cook Political Report. The primary elections for Congressional races were held on August 24, 2010.

Overview

The table below shows the total number and percentage of votes, as well as the number of seats gained and lost by each political party in the election for the United States House of Representatives in Arizona. In addition, the voter turnout and the number of votes not valid will be listed below.

Statewide

PartyCandidatesVotesSeatsNo.%No.+/–%
Republican Party (United States)}};"Republican8900,51053.035262.50
Democratic Party (United States)}};"Democratic8711,83741.923237.50
Libertarian Party (United States)}};"Libertarian872,2164.2500.0
Green Party (United States)}};"Green39,0660.5300.0
Independent (politician)}};"Independent14,5060.2700.0
Total281,698,135100.08100.0

By district

Results of the 2010 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona by district:

DistrictRepublicanDemocraticOthersTotalResultRepublican Party (United States)}}"Democratic Party (United States)}}"Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%
District 1112,81649.72%99,23343.73%14,8696.55%226,918100.0%Republican gain
District 2173,17364.88%82,89131.06%10,8304.06%266,894100.0%Republican hold
District 3108,68952.24%85,61041.14%13,7726.62%208,071100.0%Republican hold
District 425,30027.53%61,52466.94%5,0835.53%91,907100.0%Democratic hold
District 5110,37452.00%91,74943.23%10,1274.77%212,250100.0%Republican gain
District 6165,64966.42%72,61529.12%11,1194.46%249,383100.0%Republican hold
District 770,38544.23%79,93550.23%8,8245.54%159,144100.0%Democratic hold
District 8134,12447.30%138,28048.76%11,1743.94%283,578100.0%Democratic hold
Total900,51053.03%711,83741.92%85,7985.05%1,698,145100.0%

District 1

Kirkpatrick:
Gosar:
Incumbent Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick, who had represented the district since 2009, ran for re-election. She was elected with 55.9% of the vote in 2008 and the district had a PVI of R+6.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • Ann Kirkpatrick, incumbent U.S. Representative

Results

Republican primary

The Republican primary featured 8 candidates seeking to take on Kirkpatrick in the general election. Mining industry lobbyist Sydney Hay, who had been the Republican nominee to run against Kirkpatrick in 2008, finished second in the primary behind dentist Paul Gosar. Other unsuccessful Republican candidates included attorney Bradley Beauchamp and former state legislator Russell Bowers.

Candidates

Nominee
  • Paul Gosar, dentist
Eliminated in primary
  • Bradley Beauchamp, attorney
  • Russell Bowers, former state senator
  • Sydney Hay, mining industry lobbyist, nominee for this seat in 2008 and candidate in 2002
  • Joe Jaraczewski, former real estate development company owner
  • Jon Jensen, former Greeley County School Superintendent
  • Steve Mehta, cardiologist
  • Thomas J. Zaleski, President at Thoma Capital Management LLC
Withdrawn
  • Paul Burton

Endorsements

Statewide officials

  • Sarah Palin, former Governor of Alaska and nominee for Vice President of the United States in 2008

Local officials

  • Joe Arpaio, Sheriff of Maricopa County
  • Paul Babeu, Sheriff of Pinal County Newspapers
  • The Arizona Republic

Results

Gosar, a political neophyte, buoyed by endorsements from highly visible Republican politicians, including Sarah Palin, won the primary with just under 31% of the vote.

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • Nicole Patti (PVS)

Results

General election

Prior to Kirkpatrick's election in 2008, the 1st district had been held by Republicans since this version of the seat was created following the 2000 census.

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorAnn
Kirkpatrick (D)Paul
Gosar (R)Nicole
Patti (L)Undecided
Lake Research Partners (D)October 12–14, 2010500 (LV)±4.4%41%38%6%15%
The Hill/ANGASeptember 25–30, 2010403 (LV)±4.9%39%46%3%12%
Moore Information (R)August 30–31, 2010412 (LV)±4.8%43%43%14%
American Action ForumAugust 25–29, 2010400 (LV)±4.9%41%47%12%
Lake Research Partners (D)August 24–26, 2010500 (LV)±4.4%43%39%17%

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political ReportNovember 1, 2010
RothenbergNovember 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 1, 2010
RCPNovember 1, 2010
CQ PoliticsOctober 28, 2010
New York TimesNovember 1, 2010
FiveThirtyEightNovember 1, 2010

Results

Kirkpatrick lost on November 2, 2010, to Paul Gosar and the seat reverted to the Republicans.

District 2

Incumbent Republican Trent Franks, who had represented the district since 2003, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 59.4% of the vote in 2008 and the district had a PVI of R+13.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • Trent Franks, incumbent U.S. Representative
Eliminated in primary

Results

Franks won an easy victory with over 80% of the vote in his favour.

Democratic primary

Retired teacher John Thrasher ran unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Thrasher has twice attempted to unseat Franks, losing to the incumbent by 19% in 2006 and by 22% in 2008.(campaign site, PVS)

Candidates

Nominee
  • John Thrasher, retired teacher and nominee for this seat in 2006 and 2008

Results

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominee

Results

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political ReportNovember 1, 2010
RothenbergNovember 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 1, 2010
RCPNovember 1, 2010
CQ PoliticsOctober 28, 2010
New York TimesNovember 1, 2010
FiveThirtyEightNovember 1, 2010

Results

District 3

Incumbent Republican John Shadegg, who had represented the district since 1995, retired. He was re-elected with 54.1% of the vote in 2008 and the district had a PVI of R+9.

Republican primary

On January 14, 2010, 8-term incumbent Shadegg announced his retirement at the end of his current term, making the third district an open seat. In the wake of Shadegg's retirement, several Republicans declared their candidacy.

Candidates

Nominee
  • Ben Quayle, attorney and son of former Vice President of the United States Dan Quayle
Eliminated in primary
  • Bob Branch, professor
  • Sam Crump, state representative
  • Pamela Gorman, former state senator
  • LeAnn Hull, businesswoman
  • Steve Moak, businessman and philanthropist
  • Paulina Morris, attorney
  • Vernon Parker, Mayor of Paradise Valley
  • Jim Waring, former state senator{{cite web|url=https://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/local/articles/2010/01/29/20100129politics-waring0129.html
  • Ed Winkler, former Mayor of Paradise Valley
Declined
  • Dean Martin, State Treasurer
  • Sean Noble, Shadegg's Chief of Staff
  • Andrew Walter, former Arizona State University quarterback and NFL free agent
  • James Weiers, state representative and former Speaker of the Arizona House of Representatives

Campaign

Gorman gained national attention during the campaign for an ad showing her firing a Thompson submachine gun, and for her cosponsorship of the highly controversial SB 1070 anti-illegal immigration bill.

Quayle, the initial frontrunner in the race, faced criticism for his prior involvement with the controversial rumour and gossip website "DirtyScottsdale.com". According to the site's founder, Quayle was one of the "original contributors" to the site, which covered Scottsdale nightlife with features including sexy photos of women, and was the predecessor to the gossip website TheDirty.com. Quayle initially denied the rumors, before admitting several weeks later that he did, in fact, write material for the site under the pen name Brock Landers. Newcomer Steve Moak's strong fundraising and television advertising blitz against Quayle saw him to be viewed as the new frontrunner, however he faced allegations that he illegally profited from a charity he had set up, hurt his campaign.

Results

Quayle emerged victorious with 22.1% of the vote, while businessman and political neophyte Steve Moak came in second with 18%.

Democratic primary

Jon Hulburd filed his candidacy for the Democratic nomination on October 16, 2009. The Hulburd campaign got off to a strong start and raised over $300,000 in the fourth quarter of 2009. This attracted national attention with the DCCC naming the race as one of its top 17 races to watch nationwide.

Candidates

Nominee
  • Jon Hulburd, attorney and small businessman

Results

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominee

Results

Green primary

Candidates

Nominee

Results

General election

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorBen
Quayle (R)Jon
Hulburd (D)Undecided
Public Policy PollingOctober 16–17, 2010655 (LV)±3.8%44%46%10%

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political ReportNovember 1, 2010
RothenbergNovember 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 1, 2010
RCPNovember 1, 2010
CQ PoliticsOctober 28, 2010
New York TimesNovember 1, 2010
FiveThirtyEightNovember 1, 2010

Results

District 4

Incumbent Democrat Ed Pastor, who had represented the district since 1991, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 72.1% of the vote in 2008 and the district had a PVI of D+13. Since taking office, he has been re-elected nine times with no less than 62% of the vote.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • Ed Pastor, incumbent U.S. Representative

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
  • Joe Peñalosa, immigration attorney

Results

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominee

Results

Green primary

Candidates

Nominee

Results

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political ReportNovember 1, 2010
RothenbergNovember 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 1, 2010
RCPNovember 1, 2010
CQ PoliticsOctober 28, 2010
New York TimesNovember 1, 2010
FiveThirtyEightNovember 1, 2010

Results

District 5

Schweikert:
Mitchell:

Incumbent Democrat Harry Mitchell, who had represented the district since 2007, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 53.2% of the vote in 2008 and the district had a PVI of R+5.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • Harry Mitchell, incumbent U.S. Representative

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • David Schweikert, former Maricopa County Treasurer, former state representative, nominee for this seat in 2008 and candidate in 1994
Eliminated in primary
  • Susan Bitter Smith, former Scottsdale city council member, candidate for the 1st District in 1994 and 2000 and for this seat in 2008.
  • Lee Gentry, business owner, attorney, certified public accountant and candidate for this seat in 2008
  • Chris Salvino, surgeon
  • Mark Spinks, realtor
  • Jim Ward, venture capitalist
Withdrawn
  • Eric Wnuck, businessman

Results

2010 AZ-05 Republican primary by precinct
Republican primary results by precinct:{{collapsible list

Schweikert's victory sets up a rematch against Mitchell, who defeated him 53-44% in the 2008 general election.

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • Nick Coons (, PVS).

Results

Green primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • Ryan Blackman

Results

Blackman withdrew from the general election.

General election

Campaign

Prior to Mitchell's victory over incumbent conservative Republican J. D. Hayworth in 2006, the district had been held by Republicans since 1995, although it had been tending towards the Democrats. Schweikert posted signs across the district calling Mitchell a “lap dog” for Nancy Pelosi, after Mitchell voted for the 2008 bank bailout, the $787 billion stimulus law in 2009 and the Affordable Care Act in March 2010. This despite Mitchell's breaks with the Party on a number of Tax and climate change legislation.

Endorsements

Statewide officials

  • Sarah Palin, former Governor of Alaska and nominee for Vice President in 2008

Debates

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorHarry
Mitchell (D)David
Schweikert (R)Nick
Coons (L)Undecided
Penn Schoen Berland (D)/The Hill/ANGA)October 12–14, 2010408 (LV)±4.9%42%45%1%12%
Benenson Strategy Group (D)October 5–7, 2010400 (LV)±4.9%46%39%15%
National Research (R)October 5–6, 2010400 (LV)±4.9%43%45%12%
Bennett, Petts & Normington (D)September 26–27, 2010400 (LV)±4.9%43%40%6%11%
Harstad Strategic Research (D)September 13–16, 2010509 (LV)±4.3%45%44%6%5%
National Research (R)August 31-September 2, 2010400 (LV)±4.9%38%46%16%
American Action ForumAugust 25–29, 2010400 (LV)±4.9%44%50%6%

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political ReportNovember 1, 2010
RothenbergNovember 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 1, 2010
RCPNovember 1, 2010
CQ PoliticsOctober 28, 2010
New York TimesNovember 1, 2010
FiveThirtyEightNovember 1, 2010

Results

David Schweikert defeated Democratic incumbent Harry Mitchell on November 2, 2010, returning the seat to the Republicans.

District 6

Incumbent Republican Jeff Flake, who had represented the district since 2001, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 62.4% of the vote in 2008 and the district had a PVI of R+15.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • Jeff Flake, incumbent U.S. Representative
Eliminated in primary
  • Jeff Smith, investor

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee
Withdrawn
  • Amos Chiarappa

Results

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • Darell Tapp (PVS)

Results

Green primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • Richard Grayson, writer and perennial candidate (campaign site)

Results

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political ReportNovember 1, 2010
RothenbergNovember 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 1, 2010
RCPNovember 1, 2010
CQ PoliticsOctober 28, 2010
New York TimesNovember 1, 2010
FiveThirtyEightNovember 1, 2010

Results

District 7

Incumbent Democrat Raúl Grijalva, who had represented the district since 2003, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 63.3% of the vote in 2008 and the district had a PVI of D+6.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • Raúl Grijalva, incumbent U.S. Representative

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
  • Christopher J. Flowers
  • Terry Myers
  • Joseph Sweeney, educator, nominee for this seat in 2004 & 2008 and candidate in 2000, 2002 & 2006
  • Robert Wilson

Results

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
  • Andrew Ibarra

Results

Independents

Candidates

Nominee

General election

Campaign

Despite the Democratic lean of the district, Grijalva faced a tougher than expected re-election campaign following his suggestion that businesses should boycott the state in response to the passing of the highly controversial SB 1070 anti-illegal immigration bill. Both Grijalva and challenger, 28-year-old physicist Ruth McClung, benefitted from outside spending in the final weeks of the campaign, in addition to the national environment favouring the Republicans.

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorRaúl
Grijalva (D)Ruth
McClung (R)George
Keane (L)Harley
Meyer (I)Undecided
Summit Consulting GroupOctober 4–5, 20101,807 (LV)±3.0%37%39%24%
Magellan Strategies (R)September 29, 2010686 (LV)±3.7%40%38%4%5%13%
American Political Consultants (R)September 25–26, 2010450 (LV)±4.3%42%35%23%

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political ReportNovember 1, 2010
RothenbergNovember 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 1, 2010
RCPNovember 1, 2010
CQ PoliticsOctober 28, 2010
New York TimesNovember 1, 2010
FiveThirtyEightNovember 1, 2010

Results

Two days after the election Grijalva was declared the winner, with his margin of victory being ultimately 6 points.

District 8

Incumbent Democrat Gabby Giffords, who had represented the district since 2007, ran for re-election. She was re-elected with 54.7% of the vote in 2008 and the district had a PVI of R+4.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • Gabby Giffords, incumbent U.S. Representative

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • Jesse Kelly, Marine veteran and businessman (no relation to Giffords' husband Mark Kelly)
Eliminated in primary
  • Jonathan Paton, former state senator
  • Jay Quick
Withdrawn
  • Andy Goss, army veteran (endorsed Kelly)
  • Brian Miller, Air Force Reserve Major (endorsed Paton)

Debates

Results

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • Steven Stoltz, engineer

Results

General election

Prior to Giffords win in 2006, the seat had been held by Republicans since 1985 under moderate Jim Kolbe.

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administeredSample
sizeMargin of
errorGabrielle
Giffords (D)Jesse
Kelly (R)Undecided
American Action ForumAugust 25–29, 2010400 (LV)±4.9%46%46%8%

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political ReportNovember 1, 2010
RothenbergNovember 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 1, 2010
RCPNovember 1, 2010
CQ PoliticsOctober 28, 2010
New York TimesNovember 1, 2010
FiveThirtyEightNovember 1, 2010

Results

References

References

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