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2010 United States House of Representatives election in North Dakota
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| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| election_name | 2010 United States House of Representatives election in North Dakota |
| country | North Dakota |
| type | presidential |
| ongoing | no |
| previous_election | 2008 United States House of Representatives election in North Dakota |
| previous_year | 2008 |
| next_election | 2012 United States House of Representatives election in North Dakota |
| next_year | 2012 |
| election_date | |
| turnout | 237,137 |
| image1 | File:Rick Berg, official portrait, 112th Congress.jpg |
| image_size | 150x150px |
| nominee1 | Rick Berg |
| party1 | Republican Party (United States) |
| popular_vote1 | 129,802 |
| percentage1 | 54.74% |
| image2 | File:Earl Pomeroy 111th congressional portrait.jpg |
| nominee2 | Earl Pomeroy |
| party2 | North Dakota Democratic-NPL Party |
| popular_vote2 | 106,542 |
| percentage2 | 44.93% |
| map_image | United States House of Representatives election in North Dakota results by county, 2010.svg |
| map_size | 250px |
| map_caption | County results |
| Berg: | |
| Pomeroy: | |
| title | U.S. Representative |
| before_election | Earl Pomeroy |
| before_party | North Dakota Democratic-NPL Party |
| after_election | Rick Berg |
| after_party | Republican Party (United States) |
Berg:
Pomeroy:
The 2010 House election in North Dakota took place on November 2, 2010, to elect the state's at-large Representative to the United States House of Representatives. Representatives are elected for two-year terms; this election was for the 112th Congress from January 3, 2011, until January 3, 2013. North Dakota has one seat in the House, apportioned according to the 2000 United States census.
The election was held concurrently with the United States Senate elections of 2010 (including one in North Dakota), the United States House elections in other states and various state and local elections.
Background
Despite Republican dominance at the presidential level in North Dakota, which has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964, as well as state and local elections, Democrats achieved several consecutive victories in congressional elections in the state since the 1980s. Democrats had held the state's at-large House seat since 1981. From 1987 to 2011, North Dakota had a completely Democratic congressional delegation.
Since his first election in 1992, incumbent Democrat Earl Pomeroy had usually won reelection by comfortable margins. However, with Democrats fighting in a much tougher political environment in 2010, Republicans planned on putting forward a serious challenge. Republicans running against him included state Public Service Commissioner Kevin Cramer, state Representative Rick Berg, and former University of Mary football coach Paul Schaffner. Pomeroy was likely more vulnerable than usual due to his support for the Democratic House Healthcare bill, which 64% of North Dakotans opposed, and President Barack Obama's declining job approval ratings in the state.
General election
Candidates
Democrats
- Earl Pomeroy, incumbent U.S. Representative
Republicans
- Rick Berg, North Dakota State Representative and former state House Majority Leader
- J.D. Donaghe, oil field consultant
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s)dministered | Earl | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pomeroy (D) | Rick | ||||
| Berg (R) | Other | Undecided | |||
| Public Opinion Strategies† | October 24–25, 2010 | 42% | 51% | - | - |
| Rasmussen Reports | October 18–19, 2010 | 42% | 52% | 1% | 5% |
| The Hill/ANGA | October 16–19, 2010 | 45% | 44% | - | 9% |
| Prairie Poll | October 2010 | 44% | 34% | - | - |
| Rasmussen Reports | September 20–21, 2010 | 45% | 48% | 1% | 5% |
| Garin-Hart-Yang† | September 10–12, 2010 | 46% | 44% | - | - |
| Rasmussen Reports | August 10–11, 2010 | 44% | 53% | 1% | 3% |
| Rasmussen Reports | July 21, 2010 | 46% | 49% | 1% | 5% |
| Rasmussen Reports | June 15–16, 2010 | 44% | 51% | 1% | 5% |
| Rasmussen Reports | May 19, 2010 | 43% | 52% | 2% | 3% |
| Rasmussen Reports | April 20, 2010 | 45% | 49% | 2% | 4% |
| Rasmussen Reports | March 23–24, 2010 | 44% | 51% | 1% | 4% |
| Rasmussen Reports | February 9–10, 2010 | 40% | 46% | 3% | 11% |
†Internal poll (Garin-Hart-Yang for Pomeroy and Public Opinion Strategies for Berg)
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | November 1, 2010 | |
| Rothenberg | November 1, 2010 | |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | November 1, 2010 | |
| RCP | November 1, 2010 | |
| CQ Politics | October 28, 2010 | |
| New York Times | November 1, 2010 | |
| FiveThirtyEight | November 1, 2010 |
Results
In the general election, Berg unseated Pomeroy by a vote of 129,802 (55%) to 106,542 (45%), becoming the first Republican since 1981 to represent North Dakota in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Adams (largest city: Hettinger)
- Cass (largest city: Fargo)
- Bottineau (largest city: Bottineau)
- Burke (largest city: Powers Lake)
- Burleigh (largest city: Bismarck)
- Dickey (largest city: Oakes)
- Divide (largest city: Crosby)
- Foster (largest city: Carrington)
- Grant (largest city: Elgin)
- Griggs (largest city: Cooperstown)
- Hettinger (largest city: Mott)
- Kidder (largest city: Steele)
- LaMoure (largest city: LaMoure)
- Logan (largest city: Napoleon)
- McHenry (largest city: Velva)
- McIntosh (largest city: Wishek)
- McKenzie (largest city: Watford City)
- McLean (largest city: Garrison)
- Mercer (largest city: Beulah)
- Morton (largest city: Mandan)
- Pembina (largest city: Cavalier)
- Pierce (largest city: Rugby)
- Renville (largest city: Mohall)
- Richland (largest city: Wahpeton)
- Stark (largest city: Dickinson)
- Stutsman (largest city: Jamestown)
- Walsh (largest city: Grafton)
- Ward (largest city: Minot)
- Wells (largest city: Harvey)
- Williams (largest city: Williston)
References
References
- Cadei, Emily. (2010-02-12). "Pomeroy Trails GOP Challenger in North Dakota - The Eye (CQ Politics)". Blogs.cqpolitics.com.
- (2010-08-16). "Election 2010: North Dakota House of Representatives - Rasmussen Reports". Rasmussenreports.com.
- {{usurped
- [http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_house_of_representatives_elections/north_dakota/toplines/questions_north_dakota_house_of_representatives_october_18_19_2010 Rasmussen Reports]
- [https://web.archive.org/web/20101104060653/http://thehill.com/house-polls/thehill-poll-week-4/125985-district-by-district-north-dakota The Hill/ANGA]
- {{usurped
- [http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_house_of_representatives_election/north_dakota/toplines/toplines_north_dakota_house_of_reps_september_20_21_2010 Rasmussen Reports]
- [https://web.archive.org/web/20100925140052/http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/09/north-dakota-pomeroy-poll-show.html Garin-Hart-Yang]
- [http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_house_of_representatives_election/north_dakota/toplines/toplines_north_dakota_house_election_august_10_11_2010/ Rasmussen Reports]
- [http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_house_of_representatives_election/north_dakota/toplines/toplines_north_dakota_house_of_representatives_july_21_2010/ Rasmussen Reports]
- [http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_house_of_representatives_election/north_dakota/toplines/toplines_north_dakota_house_election_june_15_16_2010 Rasmussen Reports]
- [http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_house_of_representatives_election/north_dakota/toplines/toplines_north_dakota_house_election_may_18_19_2010/ Rasmussen Reports]
- [http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_house_of_representatives_election/north_dakota/toplines/toplines_north_dakota_house_election_april_20_2010 Rasmussen Reports]
- [http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_house_of_representatives_election/north_dakota/toplines/toplines_north_dakota_house_election_march_23_24_2010 Rasmussen Reports]
- [http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_house_of_representatives_election/north_dakota/toplines/toplines_election_2010_north_dakota_house_of_reps_february_9_10_2010 Rasmussen Reports]
- (November 1, 2010). "The Cook Political Report – Charts – 2010 House Competitive Races". [[The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter.
- Rothenberg Political Report. (November 1, 2010). "House Ratings". Rothenbergpoliticalreport.com.
- [http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/category/2010-house Crystal Ball], {{As of. 2010. 11. 01
- [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/house/2010_elections_house_map.html RealClearPolitics], {{As of. 2010. 11. 01
- "2010 House Ratings Chart". CQ Politics.
- "House Race Ratings". [[The New York Times]].
- "North Dakota Secretary of State".
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