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2010 RF12

Small risk–listed near-Earth asteroid

Field	Value
minorplanet	yes
name
background	#FFC2E0
discovery_ref
discoverer	Mount Lemmon Srvy.
discovery_site	Mount Lemmon Obs.
discovered	5 September 2010
mpc_name
mp_category	NEOApollo
orbit_ref
epoch	2025-Nov-21 (JD 2461000.5)
uncertainty	0 (MPC) 2 (JPL)
observation_arc	11.98 years
aphelion	1.261 AU
perihelion	0.86158 AU
time_periastron	2026-Mar-05
semimajor	1.0615 AU
eccentricity	0.18831
period	1.094 yr (399.445 d)
mean_anomaly	266.1°
mean_motion	/ day
inclination	0.88267°
asc_node	163.69°
arg_peri	267.44°
moid	0.00060 AU
mean_diameter
6–12 meters (CNEOS)
abs_magnitude	28.42

6–12 meters (CNEOS)

**** is a very small asteroid, classified as a near-Earth object of the Apollo group, that passed between Earth and the Moon on 8 September 2010, at 21:12 UTC, approaching Earth within 79000 km above Antarctica. The asteroid was discovered by the Mount Lemmon Survey near Tucson, Arizona on 5 September 2010 along with . Based on a short 7-day observation arc from that apparation, it was listed for 12 years on the Sentry Risk Table as the asteroid with the greatest known probability (5%) of impacting Earth. was rediscovered in August 2022, and now has a 12-year observation arc and a much better known orbit. As of the December 2022 solution which accounts for nongravitational forces, there is a 1-in-10 chance of an Earth impact on 5 September 2095.

Date	Impact
probability	JPL Horizons
nominal geocentric
distance (AU)	uncertainty
region
(3-sigma)
2095-09-06 00:06 ± 00:20	1:10	0.00035 AU	±180 thousand km

In 2023, **** was identified as a possible dark comet. Dark comets are asteroids that exhibit comet-like acceleration, but visually appear as asteroids, with no coma or tail. Astronomers who study them believe the acceleration is caused by outgassing on the sunlit side.

Description

NASA's Near Earth Program estimates its size to be 7 m in diameter with a mass of around 500 tonnes. The power of the airburst would be somewhere between the 2–4 m Sutter's Mill meteorite and the 17 m Chelyabinsk meteor (which had 440 KT equivalent energy). The approach in 2096 is poorly known because it is dependent on the September 2095 Earth approach.

Date	Impact
probability
(1 in)	JPL Horizons
nominal geocentric
distance (AU)	NEODyS
nominal geocentric
distance (AU)	MPC
nominal geocentric
distance (AU)	Find_Orb
nominal geocentric
distance (AU)	uncertainty
region
(3-sigma)
2095-09-05 23:46	10	0.00035 AU	0.0008 AU	0.00066 AU	130000 km	±180 thousand km
2096-09-04 21:50	22000	0.84 AU	0.18 AU	0.36 AU	0.19 AU	±414 million km

On 17 February 2059 the asteroid will pass within 3.5 million km from Earth and reach about apparent magnitude 22.6 by late February. On 10 September 1915 it passed from Earth.

Notes

References

|access-date = 2014-04-17}} (K10R12F)

|archive-url = https://archive.today/20221223224337/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/tools/sbdb_lookup.html%23/?sstr=2010RF12&view=OPC |archive-date= 2022-12-23 |url-status = live |access-date = 2022-12-23}}

|access-date = 21 January 2020}}

|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20100911072645/http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2010/09/100908-asteroids-earth-nasa-catalina-sky-survey-science-space |url-status = dead |archive-date = 11 September 2010 |access-date = 21 January 2020}}

|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20100909142420/http://www.boston.com/news/local/breaking_news/2010/09/harvard_scienti_1.html |archive-date= 9 September 2010 |access-date = 21 January 2020}}

|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20170122151206/http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2010rf12.html#?des=2010%20RF12 |archive-date = 22 January 2017 |url-status = live |access-date = 2022-12-23}}

|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20100911052418/http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/ |archive-date = 11 September 2010 |url-status = live |access-date = 2022-12-23}}

|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20221223231926/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272010+RF12%27&START_TIME=%272095-09-05%2023:46%27&STOP_TIME=%272095-09-06%27&STEP_SIZE=%272%20days%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27 |archive-date=2022-12-23 |url-status=live

|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20221223232436/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272010+RF12%27&START_TIME=%272095-09-06%2000:06%27&STOP_TIME=%272095-09-07%27&STEP_SIZE=%272%20days%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27 |archive-date=2022-12-23 |url-status=live

|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220707092915/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272010+RF12%27&START_TIME=%272096-09-04+21%3A50%27&STOP_TIME=%272096-09-05%27&STEP_SIZE=%272+days%27&QUANTITIES=%2720%2C39%27 |archive-date=2022-07-07 |url-status=live

|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220706182711/https://www.projectpluto.com/cgi-bin/fo/fo_serve.cgi?obj_name=2010+RF12&year=2095-09-06&n_steps=1&stepsize=1 |archive-date=2022-07-06 |url-status=live

|archive-url=https://archive.today/20221223230808/https://www.projectpluto.com/cgi-bin/fo/fo_serve.cgi?obj_name=2010+RF12&year=2096-09-05&n_steps=1&stepsize=1 |archive-date=2022-12-23 |url-status=live

|access-date = 21 January 2020}} (1 in 12)

|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20220706185615/https://newton.spacedys.com//neodys/index.php?pc=1.1.3.1&n=2010RF12&oc=500&y0=2095&m0=9&d0=5&h0=12&mi0=0&y1=2095&m1=9&d1=6&h1=12&mi1=0&ti=1.0&tiu=hours |archive-date= 2022-07-06 |url-status = live |access-date = 21 January 2020}} (NEODyS Close Approach Table))

|archive-url = https://archive.today/20221223092947/https://newton.spacedys.com//neodys/index.php?pc=1.1.3.1&n=2010RF12&oc=500&y0=2096&m0=9&d0=4&h0=12&mi0=0&y1=2096&m1=9&d1=5&h1=12&mi1=0&ti=1.0&tiu=hours |archive-date= 2022-12-23 |url-status = live |access-date = 23 December 2022}}

|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20220102014840/https://www.nasa.gov/feature/five-years-after-the-chelyabinsk-meteor-nasa-leads-efforts-in-planetary-defense/ |archive-date = 2 January 2022 |url-status=live |access-date = 2022-01-19}}

References

Many small and harmless asteroids (less than ~10 meters in diameter) impact Earth every year but very few are discovered and predicted, see [[Asteroid impact prediction]].
Seligman, Darryl Z.. (2023-02-15). "Dark Comets? Unexpectedly Large Nongravitational Accelerations on a Sample of Small Asteroids". The Planetary Science Journal.
(2025-05-01). "Dark Comets". Scientific American.
{{mp. 2010 RF. 52000. 180000. airbursts]] in the upper atmosphere. Pebble sized fragments would likely fall to the ground at terminal velocity.[http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/18/40/2493218.pdf How a Near-Earth Object Impact Might Affect Society, 9 January 2003, Clark R. Chapman, SwRI, Boulder CO USA]

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