1996 Indian general election in Andhra Pradesh

Background

In August 1995, Nara Chandrababu Naidu overthrew the Government of Andhra Pradesh formed by the actor-turned-politician N. T. Rama Rao (NTR) in a coup d'état. With the support of 178–190 MLAs and NTR's family, Naidu forced NTR to resign and formed his own government. This led to a division in the Telugu Desam Party, founded by NTR, splitting in two camps – Telugu Desam Party (NTR) (TDP (NTR)) and Telugu Desam Party (Naidu) (TDPN) – the former headed by NTR and the later by Chandrababu Naidu, who is also the son-in-law to NTR.

Parties and alliances

Scholars view three groups to be dominating contestants in the majority of the constituencies – the Congress, Naidu's TDP faction and its allies, and Parvathi's TDP faction and its allies.

Congress (I)

The Indian National Congress maintained a monopoly in the power structure in the state since its inception in 1956 until 1983 when NTR-led TDP won the 1983 Assembly elections. The sudden death of NTR followed by the split in TDP into TDPN and TDPLP significantly increased the opportunities for the Indian National Congress (I). The party's strategy to retain power at the national level relied on securing a considerable proportion of seats from the state. Congress sustained a reliable support in the state, in the form of one-third voters being its supporters, during the NTR-era since 1983 led to confidence buildup among its leadership of victory in the elections that the party made little effort to reconcile its internal differences. The then Prime Minister P. V. Narasimha Rao hailed from the state and thus raised the stakes of the political future for the party in the state.

Telugu Desam Party (Naidu)

Nara Chandrababu Naidu saw this election as an opportunity to cement his credibility and legitimacy as the political successor to NTR. It also marked the first time Naidu leading his party into an election and had high stakes for the party's future. The Election Commission of India acknowledged his faction as the authentic Telugu Desam Party and assigned the bicycle symbol that the original TDP used. The left parties – Communist Party of India (CPI) and Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPIM) – which were allies with TDP since 1984, allied with TDPN.

Telugu Desam Party (Lakshmi Parvathi)

Following NTR's death on 18 January 1996, the TDP (NTR) fell into the hands of his second-wife, Lakshmi Parvathi. The party was renamed Telugu Desam Party (Lakshmi Parvathi) (TDPLP). Janata Dal, a member of the National Front coalition, supported her campaign largely as a sign of commemorating NTR, who headed the coalition.

Others

Other political parties had no significant extent in the state. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (MIM) were restricted to the twin cities of Hyderabad–Secunderabad. The BJP, despite contesting in 40 constituencies in the 1991 general elections, was able to win only in Secunderabad. However, it received a considerable amount of vote share in the state, particularly in the Telangana region. The Janata Dal was deteriorated of its support base.

Candidates

Caste formed one of the fundamental criteria in the selection of the candidates. Out of 42 seats, 34 are in the general category with the rest being reserved. The Congress nominated 12 candidates, in the general category, belonging to the Reddys. The TDPLP nominated 12 Kammas and 10 Reddys and was thus perceived as an upper caste party. The TDPN, apart from nominating several Reddys and Kammas, followed the NTR's strategy of enticing the Other Backward Class (OBC), who accounted for 44 percent in the state's population, and nominated 9 OBC candidates.

The Congress and the TDP considered caste considerations in nominations while the TDPLP chose to nominate the wealthy and influential candidates of the forward castes in constituencies where they are not dominant, even though the OBCs were considered to play a key role in the battle between the two TDP factions. Scholars argue that the TDPLP lacked any political strategy and sought candidates who held more sway in their respective constituencies.

List of Candidates

Campaign

Congress' campaign

The Congress party displayed clear signs of complacency. The party did not announce any new initiatives and suffered from the lack of any captivating leader. It was constantly hampered by internal divisions and the rivalry between them which at times led to suspensions of several high-ranking members. Scholars studying the election and the proceedings surrounding it argue that the party was merely anticipating to reap the benefits arising out of the conflict between the two TDP divisions – TDPLP and TDPN; they inferred that projections in India Today of winning 40 seats if the party was able to sustain its support base from the previous general election held in 1991 in the state, further fuelled its overconfidence.

Chandrababu Naidu's campaign

Naidu's strategy involved thorough planning and its execution. He spared no effort to showcase his association with NTR and his policies. Rhetoric involving NTR's pictures was widely deployed as a tool to appeal to the voter-base. NTR's speeches in which he praised Naidu were cherrypicked and played throughout the campaign. One such recordings was from 1984, when NTR was re-instated as the chief minister after the coup, and lauded Naidu for his immense efforts made to reinstate him, was the most often used.

Naidu fell short of Parvathi in terms of diction and crowd-pulling capabilities. To counter this, he used the medium of satellite television networks and thus expanded his reach into the far-flung communities. He directed the MLAs of his party into active campaigning supervision in their respective constituencies. He made all efforts to portray to the public that he was maintaining the populist welfare policies that NTR put into action.

Lakshmi Parvathi's campaign

Akin to NTR's political journey, she started her campaign in Tirupati aboard "Taraka Rama Chaitanya Ratham", a campaign vehicle resembling the popular "Chaitanya Ratham" used by NTR, and toured around the state. Her oratorial skills drawing huge crowds to her campaign despite a lack of charisma that NTR commanded. She portrayed the coup as an injustice to NTR and called upon the electorate to defeat the "back-stabbers" in the polls. She used the metaphor "Naraasura Samhaaram" (), referring to Nara Chandrababu Naidu. The emotional appeal of playing a voice recording of NTR, in which he refers to Naidu and the MLAs who backed him during the coup as "traitors", was often employed.

She presented herself as "anti-Naidu" but never as "anti-Congress", one of the main ideologies of NTR. This led to speculations that she would support Congress after the elections. Observing the response to her campaign and the sympathy she had gained among the populace following NTR's death, political analysts predicted her decisive victory in the elections. As time progressed, her party witnessed a significant exodus of politicians who played a major role in facilitating NTR's politics down at the local level. There were also hardly any competent leaders at the mid-level in the party.

List of elected members

By-Elections Held

Voting and results

Results by alliance

Post-election Union Council of Ministers from Andhra Pradesh

Analysis

Party-wise analysis

The election, which marked the first to be held after NTR's death, served as the battle ground between Naidu-led and Parvathi-led TDP factions to seize NTR's remnant political influence. Naidu's decision to sustain prohibition and subsidised rice scheme, both of which being NTR's populist welfare policies, paid off leading him to the victory over the Parvathi's faction in the election. The TDPN and its allies, CPI and CPI(M), secured 37.9 percent of the votes totalling 19 seats (16 TDP, 2 CPI, 1 CPI(M)) and managed to assert its dominance over TDPLP which secured 10.6 percent of vote share albeit winning no seats.

Securing 39.7 percent of the vote share with 22 seats, the Congress party performed remarkably well given its rather poor performance across the country. Scholars attribute this phenomenon to the voters of the state reacting historically divergent from national politics; the state's electoral politics had been so distinct compared to other parts in the country that the strategies and forecasts had to be mended to suit such needs. The pre-poll forecasts put Congress to have a clean sweep in the state given that it won 31 of the 42 seats in the 1991 general election and thus winning only 22 seats was seen inadequate. Had the TDP not split and contested in conjunction, scholars argue, it would have won 43.2 percent vote share (32.6 TDPN, 10.6 TDPLP), a figure almost equal to what the it secured (43.3 percent) in 1994 Legislative Assembly election. This would have ended Congress with only 6 seats. Thus, scholars argue the Congress party is the principal gainer of the clash between the two TDP factions.

MIM held the contentious constituency of Hyderabad, the state's capital. BJP lost its only seat to Congress. Analysis of the voting patterns in the Hyderabad region indicated that MIM had a robust support base in the urban area of the city and BJP held sway in the rural region often on the account of the TDP split.

Region-wise analysis

In the Coastal Andhra region which is constituted of 21 constituencies, the TDPN won 11 constituencies exceeding the analysts' expectations; the Congress won the remaining 10 constituencies. The Congress party saw a degraded performance in the region as it was only able to secure 41.1 percent of the votes polled compared to the 47.1 percent in 1991 general elections. However, it saw a higher vote share when compared to the 37.1 percent in the 1994 Legislative Assembly election. The TDPN-alliance secured 39.4 percent of the votes, thus witnessing a minimal loss compared to 42.9 percent in 1991 general election.

In the Telangana region constituting 15 constituencies, the Congress won 8 while the TDPN-alliance won 6 and the MIM 1 constituency. The Congress party saw a consistent performance in the region with 37.5 percent of the votes in 1991 general election compared to the 37.3 percent in this election. However, the party took significant gains from the 27.6 percent vote share in the 1994 Assembly election. The TDPN-alliance saw an improvement with 33.2 percent vote share compared to the 29.1 percent in 1991 general election.

In the Rayalaseema region comprising 6 constituencies, Congress won 4 while TDPN won the remaining 2 constituencies. The Congress party saw a detrimental performance in the region compared to the 1991 general election when it was able to win all the 6 constituencies. The votes polled for the party also saw a drop, from 59.7 percent in 1991 election to 43.1 percent in this election. However, it was able to gain compared to the 37.4 percent of the votes in the 1994 Legislative Assembly election. The TDPN-alliance saw an increase in its vote share from 33.2 percent in 1991 general election to 44.8 percent in this election.

Notes

References

Bibliography

References

1. "Past Election Results".
2. Menon, Vandana. (2018-03-09). "Founded by movie legend NTR, Telugu Desam Party has always punched above its weight".
3. (30 April 1996). "Andhra Pradesh TDP split could benefit the Congress(I) significantly".