Wage–price spiral

History

An early use of the concept was in 1868. The term "wage–price spiral" appeared in a 1937 New York Times article about the Little Steel strike. In the 1970s, US President Richard Nixon attempted to break what he saw as a "spiral" of prices and costs, by imposing a price freeze, with little effect.

Some sources distinguish between wage–price spirals and price–wage spirals.

Olivier Blanchard argues that the concept declined with the rise of rational expectations theory. Blanchard attempts to rehabilitate the concept, whilst according to Daniel J.B. Mitchell and Christopher L. Erickson its fall in popularity instead coincided with the decline of unions and collective bargaining. They write, "With the rapid pace of union membership decline in the early 1980s, followed by erosion relative to the overall workforce thereafter, it became progressively difficult to tie inflation to unions, and thus to worker demands".

Criticism

The Socialist Worker argues that it is a myth used to prevent wage increases. Tribune magazine also sees the concept as rhetoric intended to hold down worker wages.

Milton Friedman criticised the concept of wage–price spirals, arguing "It's the external manifestation of inflation, but not its source... the inflation arises from one and only one reason: an increase in a quantity of money." In his view, wage–price spirals will break naturally if the quantity of money is not increased, albeit in the meanwhile "there will for a time be a continuation of inflation" as well as "some measure of recession and unemployment". Studies undertaken by the International Monetary Fund have found that even short-term spirals rarely led to a "sustained" increase in wage and price levels.

References

References

1. "Brief Principles of Macroeconomics".
2. (8 February 2022). "Opinion - Inflation Is Not a Simple Story About Greedy Corporations". The New York Times.
3. (1970). "Hearings". United States Congress House Committee on Banking and Currency.
4. (December 1985). "The Wage Price Spiral". National Bureau of Economic Research.
5. "The wage–price Spiral: From Push to Shove".
6. (20 June 2022). "Don’t swallow Tory myth of the ‘wage–price spiral’". Socialist Worker.
7. Blakeley, Grace. "The wage–price Spiral Is a Myth". tribunemag.co.uk.
8. (2005). "How not to stop inflation". Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
9. "Wage-price spirals are far scarier in theory than in practice". The Economist.