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2020 United States Senate election in Minnesota
The 2020 United States Senate election in Minnesota was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Minnesota, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the U.S. Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and other state and local elections. Some Republican pundits and strategists believed Minnesota to be a potential pickup opportunity due to its perceived increasingly favorable demographics and unexpectedly close result in the 2016 presidential election, along with potential backlash from the 2020 George Floyd protests, originating after the murder of George Floyd in Minneapolis. However, every poll showed incumbent Democratic Senator Tina Smith in the lead by varying degrees.
Smith was reelected to a full term in office by a margin of 5.2 points, making this the closest Senate election in Minnesota since 2008. The primary took place on August 11.
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Tina Smith, incumbent U.S. senator
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Steve Carlson, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018 and write-in candidate for president in 2016
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Ahmad Hassan
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Paula Overby, Green Party nominee for U.S. Senate in 2018
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Christopher Seymore Sr.
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W. D. "Bill" Hamm
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Alexandra Marie Holker
Results by county: Map legend .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Smith—>90% Smith—80–90% Smith—70–80%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic (DFL) | 497,498 | 87.14% | |
| Democratic (DFL) | 30,497 | 5.34% | |
| Democratic (DFL) | 20,037 | 3.51% | |
| Democratic (DFL) | 16,429 | 2.88% | |
| Democratic (DFL) | 6,480 | 1.13% | |
| 570,941 | 100.00% |
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Jason Lewis, former U.S. representative for Minnesota's 2nd congressional district
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John L. Berman
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Bob Carney Jr.
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Cynthia Gail, art teacher
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James Reibestein
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Rob Barrett Jr., assistant professor at North Central University
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Christopher Chamberlin, candidate for governor, U.S. senator, and U.S. representative in 2018 and Libertarian activist
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Forest Hyatt, Republican candidate for the 2018 United States Senate special election in Minnesota
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Theron Preston Washington
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Donna Bergstrom, nominee for lieutenant governor of Minnesota in 2018
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Kurt Daudt, minority leader of the Minnesota House of Representatives
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Bill Guidera, attorney and former 21st Century Fox executive
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Karin Housley, state senator and Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in 2018
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Mike Lindell, CEO of My Pillow
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Doug Wardlow, former state representative and Republican nominee for attorney general of Minnesota in 2018
Results by county: Map legend Lewis—80–90% Lewis—70–80% Lewis—60–70% Lewis—50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 191,290 | 78.11% | |
| Republican | 17,675 | 7.22% | |
| Republican | 16,213 | 6.62% | |
| Republican | 10,503 | 4.29% | |
| Republican | 9,210 | 3.76% | |
| 244,891 | 100.00% |
- Oliver Steinberg
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grassroots—LC | 3,275 | 100.00% | |
| 3,275 | 100.00% |
- Kevin O'Connor
County results for Kevin O'Connor: Map legend 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Legal Marijuana Now | 6,996 | 100.00% | |
| 6,996 | 100.00% |
- George Dennis Jr.
- Josh D. Ondich, perennial candidate
Two general election debates were held. The first, on October 2, 2020, was hosted by Minnesota Public Radio and was attended by Smith and Lewis. The second debate was hosted by Twin Cities PBS on October 23, 2020, and was attended only by Lewis.
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | Safe D | October 29, 2020 |
| Inside Elections | Safe D | October 28, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Likely D | November 2, 2020 |
| Daily Kos | Likely D | October 30, 2020 |
| Politico | Likely D | November 2, 2020 |
| RCP | Tossup | October 23, 2020 |
| DDHQ | Likely D | November 3, 2020 |
| 538 | Safe D | November 2, 2020 |
| Economist | Likely D | November 2, 2020 |
| Poll source | Date(s)administered | Samplesize | Marginof error | TinaSmith (DFL) | JasonLewis (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. | October 31 – November 1, 2020 | 450 (LV) | 4.6% | 50% | 39% | 2% | 9% |
| Data for Progress | October 27 – November 1, 2020 | 1,259 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 54% | 44% | 2% | – |
| Swayable | October 23 – November 1, 2020 | 430 (LV) | ± 6.1% | 55% | 46% | – | – |
| Public Policy Polling | October 29–30, 2020 | 770 (V) | – | 51% | 42% | – | 6% |
| Targoz Market Research/PollSmart | October 25–30, 2020 | 1,138 (LV) | – | 53% | 44% | 3% | – |
| St. Cloud State University | October 10–29, 2020 | 372 (A) | ± 6.7% | 53% | 36% | – | – |
| SurveyUSA | October 23–27, 2020 | 649 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 45% | 42% | 3% | 10% |
| Gravis Marketing | October 24–26, 2020 | 657 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 53% | 39% | – | 8% |
| Civiqs/Daily Kos | October 17–20, 2020 | 840 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 54% | 43% | 2% | 1% |
| SurveyUSA | October 16–20, 2020 | 625 (LV) | ± 5% | 43% | 42% | 3% | 12% |
| Change Research | October 12–15, 2020 | 1,021 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 48% | 44% | 4% | 5% |
| SurveyUSA | October 1–6, 2020 | 929 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 44% | 37% | 4% | 16% |
| Suffolk University | September 20–24, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 35% | 6% | 14% |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | September 21–23, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 41% | – | 10% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | September 12–17, 2020 | 718 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 51% | 36% | 2% | 11% |
| CBS News/YouGov | September 9–11, 2020 | 1,087 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 47% | 40% | 2% | 10% |
| Siena College/NYT Upshot | September 8–10, 2020 | 814 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 49% | 40% | 0% | 11% |
| SurveyUSA | September 4–7, 2020 | 553 (LV) | ± 5.2% | 47% | 36% | 3% | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling | September 3–4, 2020 | 877 (V) | ± 3.3% | 49% | 41% | 3% | 7% |
| Harper Polling (R) | August 30 – September 1, 2020 | 501 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 41% | – | 10% |
| Emerson College | August 8–10, 2020 | 733 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 48% | 45% | – | 7% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | July 22–23, 2020 | 1,218 (V) | ± 3.2% | 48% | 39% | – | 13% |
| Harper Polling (R) | May 26–28, 2020 | 510 (LV) | – | 46% | 35% | – | 20% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | .mw-parser-output .tooltip-dotted{border-bottom:1px dotted;cursor:help}±% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic (DFL) | 1,566,522 | 48.74% | −4.23% | |
| Republican | 1,398,145 | 43.50% | +1.15% | |
| Legal Marijuana Now | 190,154 | 5.91% | +2.21% | |
| Grassroots—LC | 57,174 | 1.78% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 2,261 | 0.07% | +0.03% | |
| 3,214,256 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Smith and Lewis each won four of eight congressional districts.
| District | Smith | Lewis | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42% | 50% | Jim Hagedorn | |
| 48% | 45% | Angie Craig | |
| 53% | 40% | Dean Phillips | |
| 62% | 30% | Betty McCollum | |
| 73% | 18% | Ilhan Omar | |
| 36% | 56% | Tom Emmer | |
| 34% | 59% | Collin Peterson | |
| Michelle Fischbach | |||
| 40% | 52% | Pete Stauber |
- 2020 Minnesota elections
Partisan clients
- Elections & Voting - Minnesota Secretary of State
- Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Minnesota", Voting & Elections Toolkits
- "Minnesota: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
- "League of Women Voters of Minnesota". (state affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
- Minnesota at Ballotpedia
Official campaign websites
- Jason Lewis (R) for Senate
- Tina Smith (DFL) for Senate
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