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2020 United States Senate election in Kentucky
The 2020 United States Senate election in Kentucky was held on November 3, 2020. Incumbent Republican Senator Mitch McConnell, who had been Senate majority leader since 2015 and had represented Kentucky in the Senate since 1985, won reelection to a seventh term in office. He faced off against former U.S. Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath and Libertarian Brad Barron.
The Democratic and Republican primaries took place on June 23, 2020. As the primaries neared, the president of the National Bar Association accused officials of carrying out voter suppression. Compared to typical numbers of 3,700, the number of polling stations was reduced to 200 with only one in Louisville. Because a large number of voters voted by mail, absentee ballots were not counted until June 30. In the primary, over 937,000 people requested absentee ballots or voted early; this figure was far greater than usual.
Despite being outraised by tens of millions of dollars by McGrath, McConnell defeated McGrath by nearly 20 percentage points.
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Mitch McConnell, incumbent U.S. senator and Senate majority leader
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Nicholas Alsager
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Paul John Frangedakis, chiropractor (switched to independent write-in candidacy after losing primary)
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Louis Grider, truck driver
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Neren James
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Kenneth Lowndes
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C. Wesley Morgan, former state representative
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Wendell K. Crow, businessman and entrepreneur (remained on ballot)
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Karl Das
Results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} McConnell—>90% McConnell—80–90% McConnell—70–80%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 342,660 | 82.80% | |
| Republican | 25,588 | 6.18% | |
| Republican | 13,771 | 3.33% | |
| Republican | 11,957 | 2.89% | |
| Republican | 10,693 | 2.58% | |
| Republican | 5,548 | 1.34% | |
| Republican | 3,603 | 0.87% | |
| 413,820 | 100.0% |
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Amy McGrath, former U.S. Marine fighter pilot and 2018 Democratic nominee for Kentucky's 6th congressional district
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Charles Booker, state representative
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Mike Broihier, farmer, educator, and former Marine
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Maggie Joe Hilliard
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Andrew Maynard
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Eric Rothmuller, small business owner
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John R. Sharpensteen
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Bennie J. Smith, local business owner
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Mary Ann Tobin, former Auditor of Kentucky
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Jimmy Ausbrooks, mental health counselor (endorsed Mike Broihier) (remained on ballot)
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Steven Cox, registered pharmacy technician (endorsed Charles Booker)
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Joshua Paul Edwards
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Kevin Elliott, Assistant Professor of Political Science at Murray State University
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Dr. Loretta Babalmoradi Noble
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Rocky Adkins, former minority leader of the Kentucky House of Representatives and candidate for Governor of Kentucky in 2019
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Andy Beshear, Governor of Kentucky, former attorney general of Kentucky, and son of former governor Steve Beshear
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Steve Beshear, former governor of Kentucky and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 1996
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Jack Conway, former attorney general of Kentucky, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010, nominee for Governor of Kentucky in 2015
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Adam Edelen, former state auditor and candidate for Governor of Kentucky in 2019
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Greg Fischer, Mayor of Louisville
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Jim Gray, Secretary of the Kentucky Transportation Cabinet, former mayor of Lexington and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2016
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Alison Lundergan Grimes, former secretary of state of Kentucky and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2014 (endorsed Booker)
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Matt Jones, attorney, media personality, and restaurateur (had formed an exploratory committee beforehand, endorsed Booker)
There were debates on March 5, 2020 and June 1, 2020.
| Poll source | Date(s)administered | Samplesize | Marginof error | CharlesBooker | AmyMcGrath | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress | June 10–22, 2020 | 556 (LV) | – | 43% | 46% | – | 10% |
| Garin-Hart-Yang | June 16–18, 2020 | – | – | 32% | 42% | – | – |
| Civiqs/Data for Progress | June 13–15, 2020 | 421 (LV) | ± 5.5% | 44% | 36% | 9% | 11% |
| YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications | June 8–12, 2020 | 313 (RV) | ± 7.0% | 39% | 49% | 6% | 3% |
| YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications | May 2020 | – | – | 13% | 62% | – | – |
| YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications | April 2020 | – | – | 11% | 62% | – | – |
| YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications | January 2020 | – | – | 7% | 65% | – | – |
Results by county: McGrath—60–70% McGrath—50–60% McGrath—40–50% Booker—40–50% Booker—50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | 247,037 | 45.41% | |
| Democratic | 231,888 | 42.62% | |
| Democratic | 27,175 | 4.99% | |
| Democratic | 11,108 | 2.04% | |
| Democratic | 6,224 | 1.14% | |
| Democratic | 5,974 | 1.10% | |
| Democratic | 5,040 | 0.93% | |
| Democratic | 3,629 | 0.67% | |
| Democratic | 2,995 | 0.55% | |
| Democratic | 2,992 | 0.55% | |
| 544,062 | 100.0% |
The Libertarian Party of Kentucky did not qualify to nominate through the taxpayer-funded primary and held its own privately operated primary on March 8, 2020. Anyone registered Libertarian in the state of Kentucky as of January 1, 2020, could participate. All candidates of the Libertarian Party of Kentucky must defeat None Of The Above (NOTA) to obtain the nomination.
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Brad Barron, farmer and entrepreneur
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Derek Leonard Petteys
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Daniel Cobble (as a write-in candidate)
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Harold H. Fitzpatrick (as a write-in candidate)
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Paul John Frangedakis (as a write-in candidate) (switched from Republican candidacy after losing primary)
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Randall Lee Teegarden (as a write-in candidate)
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Demetra Wysinger (as a write-in candidate)
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Alyssa Dara McDowell, independent candidate for president in 2016, 2018 Independent nominee for Kentucky House of Representatives District 65
Throughout the general election campaign, McConnell portrayed McGrath as an overly liberal "rioter apologist". He highlighted a comment McGrath made in 2018 in which she compared her reaction to Donald Trump's 2016 presidential victory to her reaction to the September 11 attacks.
- Complete video of debate, October 12, 2020 - C-SPAN
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | Likely R | October 29, 2020 |
| Inside Elections | Safe R | October 28, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Likely R | November 2, 2020 |
| Daily Kos | Safe R | October 30, 2020 |
| Politico | Likely R | November 2, 2020 |
| RCP | Likely R | October 23, 2020 |
| DDHQ | Safe R | November 3, 2020 |
| 538 | Safe R | November 2, 2020 |
| Economist | Likely R | November 2, 2020 |
| Poll source | Date(s)administered | Samplesize | Marginof error | MitchMcConnell (R) | AmyMcGrath (D) | BradBarron (L) | Other /Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swayable | October 23 – November 1, 2020 | 365 (LV) | ± 7.9% | 49% | 46% | 5% | – |
| Morning Consult | October 22–31, 2020 | 911 (LV) | ± 3% | 51% | 40% | – | – |
| Bluegrass Community & Technical College | October 12–28, 2020 | 250 (RV) | – | 50% | 40% | – | 10% |
| Cygnal | October 19–20, 2020 | 640 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 50% | 40% | 5% | 5% |
| Mason-Dixon | October 12–15, 2020 | 625 (LV) | ± 4% | 51% | 42% | 4% | 3% |
| Morning Consult | September 11–20, 2020 | 746 (LV) | ± (2% – 7%) | 52% | 37% | – | – |
| Data for Progress (D) | September 14–19, 2020 | 807 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 39% | 3% | 12% |
| 48% | 41% | – | 11% | ||||
| Quinnipiac University | September 10–14, 2020 | 1,164 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 53% | 41% | – | 5% |
| Quinnipiac University | July 30 – August 3, 2020 | 909 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 49% | 44% | – | 7% |
| Bluegrass Data (D) | July 25–29, 2020 | 3,020 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 49% | 46% | 4% | – |
| Morning Consult | July 24 – August 2, 2020 | 793 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 53% | 36% | – | 12% |
| Spry Strategies (R) | July 11–16, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 55% | 33% | – | 12% |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D) | July 7–12, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 45% | 41% | 7% | 7% |
| Civiqs/Data for Progress | June 13–15, 2020 | 898 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 53% | 33% | 4% | 11% |
| RMG Research | May 21–24, 2020 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 40% | 41% | – | 19% |
| Bluegrass Data (D) | April 7–12, 2020 | 4,000 (RV) | – | 40% | 38% | 7% | – |
| Change Research (D) | January 17–21, 2020 | 1,281 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 41% | 41% | – | 18% |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D) | January 8–13, 2020 | 802 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 43% | 40% | – | 17% |
| Fabrizio Ward | July 29–31, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 46% | – | 6% |
| Change Research (D) | June 15–16, 2019 | 1,629 (LV) | – | 47% | 45% | – | 8% |
McConnell was announced as the winner on November 3. When pressed for a potential recount of the election amid legal disputes regarding the general, McConnell dismissed the idea; he said, "At the risk of bragging, it wasn't very close." He won the election by nearly 20%.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | .mw-parser-output .tooltip-dotted{border-bottom:1px dotted;cursor:help}±% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 1,233,315 | 57.76% | +1.57% | |
| Democratic | 816,257 | 38.23% | −2.49% | |
| Libertarian | 85,386 | 4.00% | +0.92% | |
| Write-in | 99 | 0.01% | -0.00% | |
| 2,135,057 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
McConnell won five of Kentucky's six congressional districts.
| District | McConnell | McGrath | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 28% | James Comer | |
| 62% | 33% | Brett Guthrie | |
| 37% | 61% | John Yarmuth | |
| 60% | 36% | Thomas Massie | |
| 74% | 22% | Hal Rogers | |
| 51% | 46% | Andy Barr |
McGrath raised a record-setting $94 million for her campaign. She raised $63 million more than any prior candidate had ever raised for a Kentucky political campaign. According to New Republic, she outraised McConnell by $27 million. According to The Hill, she outraised McConnell by more than $32 million.
Michael Sokolove of New Republic asserted that "Amy McGrath and other Senate candidates deceived donors to rake in far more cash than their Republican opponents. They got crushed anyway".
- 2020 Kentucky elections
Partisan clients
Voter samples
- Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Kentucky", Voting & Elections Toolkits
- "Kentucky: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
- "League of Women Voters of Kentucky". (state affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
- Kentucky at Ballotpedia
campaign websites
- Brad Barron (L) for Senate Archived January 27, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
- Mitch McConnell (R) for Senate
- Amy McGrath (D) for Senate
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