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2018 United States Senate special election in Mississippi
The 2018 United States Senate special election in Mississippi took place on November 6, 2018, in order to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Mississippi. On April 1, 2018, a U.S. Senate vacancy was created when Republican senator Thad Cochran resigned due to health concerns. Mississippi Governor Phil Bryant appointed Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith to fill the vacancy. Hyde-Smith sought election to serve the balance of Cochran's term, which was scheduled to expire in January 2021.
On November 6, 2018, per Mississippi law, a nonpartisan top-two special general election took place on the same day as the regularly scheduled U.S. Senate election for the seat then held by Roger Wicker. Party affiliations were not printed on the ballot. Because no candidate gained a simple majority of the vote, a runoff between the top two candidates, Hyde-Smith and Mike Espy, was held on November 27, 2018. Hyde-Smith defeated Espy, 53.63%-46.37%.
The victory made Hyde-Smith the first woman ever elected to Congress from Mississippi.
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Note: Special elections in Mississippi are officially nonpartisan; however, each candidate's political party affiliation is indicated below.
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Tobey Bartee (Democratic Party), former Gautier city councilman
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Mike Espy (Democratic Party), former United States Secretary of Agriculture and former U.S. Representative
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Cindy Hyde-Smith (Republican Party), incumbent U.S. Senator and former Mississippi Commissioner of Agriculture and Commerce
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Chris McDaniel (Republican Party), state senator and candidate for this seat in 2014
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Jeramey Anderson, state representative (running for MS-4) (Democratic Party)
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David Baria, Mississippi House of Representatives Minority Leader (running for Class 1 U.S. Senate seat) (Democratic Party)
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Phil Bryant, governor of Mississippi (Republican Party)
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Jamie Franks, chairman of the Lee County Democratic Party and former state representative (Democratic Party)
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Andy Taggart, former chief of staff to former governor Kirk Fordice (Republican Party)
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Jason Shelton, mayor of Tupelo (Democratic Party)
| Campaign finance reports as of October 12, 2018 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Cindy Hyde-Smith | $1,654,032 | $264,232 | $1,389,799 |
| Mike Espy | $408,236 | $126,760 | $281,476 |
| Chris McDaniel | $327,263 | $171,208 | $156,054 |
Graphical summary
| Poll source | Date(s)administered | Samplesize | Marginof error | CindyHyde-Smith | MikeEspy | ChrisMcDaniel | TobeyBartee | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research (D) | November 2–4, 2018 | 1,003 | – | 27% | 40% | 28% | 1% | – | – |
| NBC News/Marist | October 13–18, 2018 | 511 LV | ± 6.1% | 38% | 29% | 15% | 2% | <1% | 15% |
| 856 RV | ± 4.7% | 36% | 28% | 14% | 3% | 1% | 17% | ||
| SurveyMonkey | September 9–24, 2018 | 985 | ± 4.3% | 24% | 25% | 19% | 4% | – | 27% |
| Neighborhood Research Corporation (R-Courageous Conservatives PAC) | August 22–23 and 27–30, 2018 | 304 | ± 5.0% | 27% | 28% | 18% | – | – | 27% |
| The Mellman Group (D-Espy) | August 1–7, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 29% | 27% | 17% | – | – | – |
| Triumph Campaigns | July 30–31, 2018 | 2,100 | ± 3.5% | 41% | 27% | 15% | 1% | – | 16% |
| GS Strategy Group (U.S. Chamber of Commerce) | May 1–3, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 30% | 22% | 17% | – | 4% | – |
| Triumph Campaigns | April 10–11, 2018 | 1,000 | ± 3.0% | 33% | 33% | 13% | – | 6% | 15% |
| Chism Strategies (D-Espy) | March 27, 2018 | 603 | ± 4.0% | 27% | 34% | 21% | – | – | 18% |
| Candidate | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|
| 389,995 | 41.25% | |
| 386,742 | 40.90% | |
| 154,878 | 16.38% | |
| 13,852 | 1.47% | |
| 945,467 | 100.00% |
During the runoff campaign, while appearing with cattle rancher Colin Hutchinson in Tupelo, Mississippi, Hyde-Smith said, "If he invited me to a public hanging, I'd be in the front row." Hyde-Smith's comment immediately drew harsh criticism, given Mississippi's notorious history of lynchings of African-Americans. In response to the criticism, Hyde-Smith downplayed her comment as "an exaggerated expression of regard" and characterized the backlash as "ridiculous."
Hyde-Smith joined Mississippi Governor Phil Bryant at a news conference in Jackson, Mississippi on November 12, 2018, where she was asked repeatedly about her comment by reporters. In the footage, Hyde-Smith adamantly refused to provide any substantive answer to reporters' questions, responding on five occasions with variations of, "I put out a statement yesterday, and that's all I'm gonna say about it." When reporters redirected questions to Bryant, he defended Hyde-Smith's comment, and changed the subject to abortion, saying he was "confused about where the outrage is at about 20 million African American children that have been aborted."
On November 15, 2018, Hyde-Smith appeared in a video clip saying that it would be "a great idea" to make it more difficult for liberals to vote. Her campaign stated that Hyde-Smith was making an obvious joke, and the video was selectively edited. Both this and the "public hanging" video were released by Lamar White Jr., a Louisiana blogger and journalist. Attention was also drawn to photographs, posted on Facebook four years earlier, of Hyde-Smith and her husband visiting former Confederate President Jefferson Davis' home, a historic site. The photos show her wearing a Confederate hat and posing with a rifle commonly used by Confederate soldiers.
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Republican | Democratic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 20, 2018 | Mississippi Farm Bureau Federation | Maggie Wade | P | P |
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | Lean R | October 26, 2018 |
| Inside Elections | Likely R | November 20, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
| Fox News | Lean R | October 10, 2018 |
| CNN | Safe R | October 12, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics | Likely R | October 12, 2018 |
| FiveThirtyEight | Lean R | November 5, 2018 |
Graphical summary
| Poll source | Date(s)administered | Samplesize | Marginof error | CindyHyde-Smith | MikeEspy | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research (D) | November 25, 2018 | 1,211 | – | 51% | 46% | – | – |
| JMC Analytics/Bold Blue Campaigns (D) | November 19–21 and 23–24, 2018 | 684 | ± 4.0% | 54% | 44% | – | 1% |
| NBC News/Marist | October 13–18, 2018 | 511 LV | ± 6.1% | 50% | 36% | 1% | 13% |
| 856 RV | ± 4.7% | 47% | 38% | 1% | 14% | ||
| The Mellman Group (D-Espy) | August 1–7, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 38% | 41% | – | – |
| Triumph Campaigns | July 30–31, 2018 | 2,100 | ± 3.5% | 48% | 34% | – | 18% |
| Mason-Dixon | April 12–14, 2018 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 34% | – | 20% |
| Triumph Campaigns | April 10–11, 2018 | 1,000 | ± 3.0% | 42% | 36% | – | 23% |
| Candidate | Votes | % | ± |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cindy Hyde-Smith (incumbent) | 486,769 | 53.63% | -6.27% |
| Mike Espy | 420,819 | 46.37% | +8.48% |
| 907,588 | 100.00% | N/A |
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Benton (largest municipality: Ashland)
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Prentiss (largest city: Booneville)
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Adams (largest city: Natchez)
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Copiah (largest city: Crystal Springs)
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Issaquena (largest city: Mayersville)
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Lowndes (largest city: Columbus)
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Oktibbeha (largest city: Starkville)
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Panola (largest city: Batesville)
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Pike (largest city: McComb)
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Warren (largest city: Vicksburg)
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Yazoo (largest city: Yazoo City)
Hyde-Smith won three of four congressional districts.
| District | Hyde-Smith | Espy | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61% | 39% | Trent Kelly | |
| 32% | 68% | Bennie Thompson | |
| 58% | 42% | Michael Guest | |
| 65% | 35% | Steven Palazzo |
- Candidates at Vote Smart
- Candidates at Ballotpedia
- Campaign finance at FEC
- Campaign finance at OpenSecrets
Official campaign websites
- Mike Espy for Senate
- Cindy Hyde-Smith for Senate
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