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2018 United States Senate election in Wisconsin

The 2018 United States Senate election in Wisconsin took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the U.S. Senate from Wisconsin. This election coincided with a gubernatorial election, U.S. House elections and various other state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic senator Tammy Baldwin won re-election to a second term, defeating Republican nominee Leah Vukmir by more than 10 percentage points. This was one of ten Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election. The primary elections were held on August 14, with a filing deadline on June 1. Baldwin was unopposed for the Democratic nomination, while Vukmir defeated Charles Barman, Griffin Jones, George Lucia and Kevin Nicholson in the Republican primary.

Tammy Baldwin, incumbent U.S. senator

Party	Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	510,812	99.64%
	Write-in	1,848	0.36%
512,660	100%

Leah Vukmir, state senator and State Senate Assistant Majority Leader
Charles Barman
Griffin Jones
George Lucia
Kevin Nicholson, businessman and member of the Wisconsin Board of Veterans Affairs
David Clarke, former Milwaukee County sheriff
Sean Duffy, U.S. representative (running for reelection)
Scott Fitzgerald, State Senate Majority Leader
Mike Gallagher, U.S. representative
Glenn Grothman, U.S. representative
Eric Hovde, businessman and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2012
Rebecca Kleefisch, lieutenant governor of Wisconsin
Dale Kooyenga, state representative
Nicole Schneider, businesswoman
Duey Stroebel, state senator
Charlie Sykes, talk radio host
Scott Walker, governor of Wisconsin (running for reelection)

Poll source	Date(s)administered	Samplesize	Marginof error	KevinNicholson	LeahVukmir	Other	Undecided
Emerson College	July 26–28, 2018	238	± 6.5%	35%	35%	3%	27%
Marist College	July 15–19, 2018	355	± 6.1%	38%	28%	<1%	34%
Hodas & Associates (R-Restoration PAC)	July 12–16, 2018	600	± 3.0%	33%	20%	–	47%
Marquette University	July 11–15, 2018	266	± 7.0%	32%	34%	2%	30%
Marquette University	June 13–17, 2018	274	± 6.9%	37%	32%	1%	30%
Hodas & Associates (R-Restoration PAC)	June 7–12, 2018	600	± 3.0%	28%	14%	–	58%
The Tarrance Group (R-Wisconsin Next PAC)	May 31 – June 4, 2018	800	± 3.5%	29%	36%	–	35%
American Viewpoint (R-Vukmir)	May 29–31, 2018	500	± 4.4%	32%	30%	–	–
Hodas & Associates (R-Restoration PAC)	April 30 – May 3, 2018	240	± 6.0%	46%	15%	–	–
WPA Intelligence (R-Nicholson)	April 2–4, 2018	1,028	± 3.1%	45%	27%	–	28%
Marquette University	February 25 – March 1, 2018	243	± 8.2%	28%	19%	2%	49%
WPA Intelligence (R-Nicholson)	January 22–23, 2018	350	± 5.2%	48%	9%	1%	42%
WPA Intelligence (R-Nicholson)	January 2–3, 2018	350	± 5.2%	27%	10%	2%	60%
WPA Intelligence (R-Nicholson)	December 6–7, 2017	1,004	± 3.1%	30%	23%	2%	45%

Results by county .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Vukmir 60–70% 50–60% 40–50% Nicholson 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70%

Party	Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	217,230	48.90%
	Republican	191,276	43.06%
	Republican	18,786	4.23%
	Republican	8,699	1.96%
	Republican	7,959	1.79%
	Write-in	303	0.07%
444,253	100%

Complete video of debate, October 8, 2018
Complete video of debate, October 13, 2018

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report	Likely D	October 26, 2018
Inside Elections	Safe D	November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Likely D	November 5, 2018
Fox News	Likely D	November 5, 2018
CNN	Likely D	November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics	Lean D	November 5, 2018

Poll source	Date(s)administered	Samplesize	Marginof error	TammyBaldwin (D)	LeahVukmir (R)	Other	Undecided
Research Co.	November 1–3, 2018	450	± 4.6%	50%	39%	–	11%
Emerson College	October 29–31, 2018	604	± 4.1%	53%	44%	–	3%
Marquette University	October 24–28, 2018	1,154 LV	± 3.2%	54%	43%	–	1%
1,400 RV	± 3.0%	52%	42%	–	3%
Ipsos	October 12–18, 2018	1,193	± 3.0%	54%	39%	3%	5%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)	October 10–11, 2018	816	± 3.4%	52%	42%	–	6%
Marquette University	October 3–7, 2018	799 LV	± 3.9%	53%	43%	–	2%
1,000 RV	± 3.6%	53%	42%	–	3%
Marist College	September 30 – October 3, 2018	571 LV	± 4.8%	54%	40%	1%	5%
781 RV	± 4.1%	53%	40%	1%	6%
Ipsos	September 14–24, 2018	1,109	± 3.0%	52%	39%	4%	5%
Marquette University	September 12–16, 2018	614 LV	± 4.4%	53%	42%	–	2%
800 RV	± 4.0%	52%	40%	–	4%
Suffolk University	August 18–24, 2018	500	± 4.4%	50%	42%	–	8%
Marquette University	August 15–19, 2018	601 LV	± 4.5%	49%	47%	–	2%
800 RV	± 4.0%	51%	43%	–	4%
Emerson College	July 26–28, 2018	632	± 4.2%	50%	36%	4%	10%
Marist College	July 15–19, 2018	906	± 3.8%	55%	38%	1%	6%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	June 11 – July 2, 2018	968	± 4.5%	56%	40%	–	4%
Marquette University	June 13–17, 2018	800	± 4.0%	49%	40%	–	8%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)	March 15–16, 2018	910	± 3.3%	51%	39%	–	10%

Despite initial expectations of a potentially close race, Baldwin ended up winning by over 10 percentage points, which was the highest margin of victory for a Wisconsin Democratic statewide candidate in 2018. She ran up the margins in the traditional Democratic strongholds of Milwaukee and Madison, but also won in western Wisconsin, Green Bay and most of the counties bordering Illinois, including Racine, Rock, and Kenosha counties. This was the largest margin of victory for the Democrats in a major Wisconsin statewide campaign (presidential, senate, gubernatorial) since 2008.

Party	Candidate	Votes	%	.mw-parser-output .tooltip-dotted{border-bottom:1px dotted;cursor:help}±%
	Democratic	1,472,914	55.36%	+3.95%
	Republican	1,184,885	44.53%	−1.33%
	Write-in	2,964	0.11%	N/A
2,660,763	100.00%	N/A

Buffalo (largest city: Mondovi)
Forest (largest city: Crandon)
Juneau (largest city: Mauston)
Lincoln (largest city: Merrill)
Pepin (largest city: Durand)
Price (largest city: Park Falls)
Sawyer (largest city: Hayward)
Chippewa (largest city: Chippewa Falls)
Wood (largest city: Marshfield)
Outagamie (largest city: Appleton)
Brown (largest city: Green Bay)

As a result of partisan gerrymandering, Baldwin only won three out of the state's eight Congressional districts, despite winning the election comfortably by over ten percentage points.

District	Baldwin	Vukmir
49.6%	50.3%	Bryan Steil
73%	26%	Mark Pocan
56%	44%	Ron Kind
79%	21%	Gwen Moore
43%	57%	Jim Sensenbrenner
47%	52%	Glenn Grothman
48%	52%	Sean Duffy
48%	51%	Mike Gallagher

2018 United States Senate elections
2018 Wisconsin gubernatorial election
2018 Wisconsin elections
Candidates at Vote Smart
Candidates at Ballotpedia
Campaign finance at FEC
Campaign finance at OpenSecrets

Official campaign websites

Tammy Baldwin (D) for Senate
John Schiess (I) for Senate (write-in)
Leah Vukmir (R) for Senate

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