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2018 United States Senate election in Montana
The 2018 United States Senate election in Montana was held on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Montana, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.
This was one of ten Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state that Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election. Incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Tester was reelected to a third term, defeating Republican State Auditor Matt Rosendale. Rosendale conceded on November 7, 2018. This was the first Senate election in which Tester received a majority of votes. As of 2025, this is the last time Democrats won a congressional and/or statewide election in Montana.
Following his loss, Rosendale went on to run for Montana's vacant congressional seat in 2020 and won, taking office in the U.S. House of Representatives in January 2021.
- Jon Tester, incumbent U.S. senator
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | 114,948 | 100.00% | |
| 114,948 | 100.00% |
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Matt Rosendale, auditor of Montana and candidate for Congress in 2014
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Troy Downing, veteran and businessman
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Russell Fagg, former Yellowstone County district judge
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Albert Olszewski, state senator and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2012
-
Ron Murray, businessman and candidate for the state house in 2010
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Tim Fox, attorney general of Montana
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Robert J. O'Neill, former Navy SEAL (endorsed Troy Downing)
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Marc Racicot, former governor and former chairman of the Republican National Committee (endorsed Russell Fagg)
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Corey Stapleton, Secretary of State of Montana, candidate for governor in 2012 and candidate for Congress in 2014
-
Ryan Zinke, former Secretary of the Interior and former U.S. representative
| Poll source | Date(s)administered | Samplesize | Marginof error | TroyDowning | RussellFagg | AlOlszewski | MattRosendale | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPA Intelligence (R-Club for Growth) | April 15–16, 2018 | 503 | ± 4.4% | 12% | 17% | 8% | 40% | – | 23% |
| WPA Intelligence (R-Rosendale) | February 5–7, 2018 | 401 | ± 4.4% | 12% | 11% | 5% | 28% | 1% | – |
Results by county Map legend .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Rosendale—60–70% Rosendale—50–60% Rosendale—40–50% Rosendale—30–40% Rosendale—<30% Rosendale/Fagg tie—30–40% Fagg—30–40% Fagg—40–50% Fagg—50–60% Olszewski—30–40% Olszewski—40–50%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 51,859 | 33.82% | |
| Republican | 43,465 | 28.34% | |
| Republican | 29,341 | 19.13% | |
| Republican | 28,681 | 18.70% | |
| 153,346 | 100.00% |
- Rick Breckenridge, 2016 candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives
In October 2018, Breckenridge told a reporter from the Associated Press that he opposed the use of dark money in politics. Breckenridge said that he realistically anticipated only receiving three or four percent of the vote in the general election, and that he endorsed Rosendale's efforts to stop the use of dark money in politics. The Associated Press interpreted Breckenridge's comments as a statement that Breckenridge was dropping out of the race and endorsing Rosendale. Breckenridge later stated that his use of the word "endorse" referred only to stopping the use of dark money in politics, and said he was still running for the Senate.
Kelly won the Green Party nomination, but a Montana district court judge ruled that he had insufficient signatures to get on the ballot.
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Steve Kelly, artist and environmental activist
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Timothy Adams
Results by county Map legend Kelly—100% Kelly—≥90% Kelly—80–90% Kelly—70–80% Kelly—60–70% Kelly—50–60% Kelly—40–50% Kelly/Adams tie—30–40% Kelly/Adams tie—50% Adams—50–60% Adams—60–70% Adams—100% No votes
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Green | 971 | 61.22% | |
| Green | 615 | 38.78% | |
| 1,586 | 100% |
- Complete video of debate, C-SPAN September 29, 2018
- Complete video of debate, YouTube October 14, 2018
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | Tossup | October 26, 2018 |
| Inside Elections | Tilt D | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean D | November 5, 2018 |
| Daily Kos | Tossup | November 1, 2018 |
| Fox News | Lean D | November 1, 2018 |
| CNN | Lean D | November 1, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
| FiveThirtyEight | Likely D | November 6, 2018 |
| Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Tester (D) | $19,499,290 | $17,946,600 | $1,612,530 |
| Matt Rosendale (R) | $5,034,075 | $4,515,910 | $524,379 |
| Rick Breckenridge (L) | - | - | - |
| Poll source | Date(s)administered | Samplesize | Marginof error | JonTester (D) | MattRosendale (R) | RickBreckenridge (L) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | November 2–5, 2018 | 953 | ± 3.2% | 50% | 49% | – | 1% | 0% |
| HarrisX | November 1–5, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 50% | 42% | – | – | – |
| Change Research | November 2–4, 2018 | 879 | – | 46% | 49% | 3% | – | – |
| HarrisX | October 31 – November 4, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 49% | 43% | – | – | – |
| HarrisX | October 30 – November 3, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 49% | 43% | – | – | – |
| HarrisX | October 29 – November 2, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 50% | 42% | – | – | – |
| HarrisX | October 28 – November 1, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 49% | 42% | – | – | – |
| HarrisX | October 27–31, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 49% | 42% | – | – | – |
| HarrisX | October 24–30, 2018 | 700 | ± 3.7% | 48% | 40% | – | – | – |
| Gravis Marketing | October 24–26, 2018 | 782 | ± 3.5% | 48% | 45% | – | – | 7% |
| University of Montana | October 10–18, 2018 | 533 | ± 4.3% | 49% | 39% | 2% | – | 10% |
| Montana State University Billings | October 8–13, 2018 | 471 | ± 4.5% | 47% | 38% | 3% | – | 12% |
| Montana State University Bozeman | September 15 – October 6, 2018 | 2,079 | ± 2.2% | 46% | 43% | 3% | 2% | 7% |
| Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) | September 28, 2018 | 594 | ± 4.0% | 49% | 45% | – | – | 6% |
| Gravis Marketing | September 19–22, 2018 | 710 | ± 3.7% | 49% | 45% | – | – | 6% |
| Axis Research (R-NRSC) | September 17–19, 2018 | – | ± 4.5% | 44% | 44% | 4% | – | 8% |
| AARP/Benenson Strategy Group (D) | September 6–16, 2018 | 950 | ± 3.1% | 50% | 43% | – | 2% | 5% |
| CBS News/YouGov | September 10–14, 2018 | 453 | – | 47% | 45% | – | 3% | 5% |
| University of Montana | August 13–31, 2018 | 466 | ± 4.5% | 56% | 32% | 2% | – | 9% |
| WPA Intelligence (R-NRSC) | August 20–22, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 47% | – | – | 5% |
| Remington Research (R) | July 8–10, 2018 | 2,581 | ± 2.0% | 49% | 46% | – | – | 5% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | June 11 – July 2, 2018 | 974 | ± 5.0% | 55% | 43% | – | – | 3% |
| Gravis Marketing | June 11–13, 2018 | 469 | ± 4.5% | 52% | 44% | – | – | 4% |
State House district results
State Senate district results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | .mw-parser-output .tooltip-dotted{border-bottom:1px dotted;cursor:help}±% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | 253,876 | 50.33% | +1.75% | |
| Republican | 235,963 | 46.78% | +1.92% | |
| Libertarian | 14,545 | 2.88% | −3.68% | |
| 504,384 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
From Secretary of State of Montana
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
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Chouteau (largest municipality: Fort Benton)
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Rosebud (largest municipality: Colstrip)
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Yellowstone (largest municipality: Billings)
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Candidates at Vote Smart
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Candidates at Ballotpedia
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Campaign finance at FEC
-
Campaign finance at OpenSecrets
Official campaign websites
- Matt Rosendale (R) for Senate
- Jon Tester (D) for Senate
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